Influence of ambient temperature and diurnal temperature variation on the premature rupture of membranes in East China: A distributed lag nonlinear time series analysis.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Extreme ambient temperature has an adverse effect on pregnancy outcomes, but the conclusions have been inconsistent. The influence of ambient temperature and diurnal temperature variation on the premature rupture of membranes (PROM) needs further study. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The daily data of PROMs, daily meteorological and air pollutant were obtained. After controlling for potential confounding factors, the quasi-Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) combined with the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to analyze the association between temperature or diurnal temperature variation and PROM, including preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM) and term premature rupture of membranes (term PROM). Compared with the median temperature(18.7 °C), the mean temperature of 5-7 days lagging beyond 31.5 °C and below -1.5 °C was positively correlated with PROM; the mean temperature had more sensitive effect on the term PROM. Exposure to extremely high temperatures (97.5th percentile, 32 °C) had a 6-day lagging relative risk (RR) (95% CI 1.005-1.160) of 1.08 for PROM and a 6-day lagging RR of 1.079 (95% CI 1.005-1.159) for term PROM; Exposure to a high diurnal temperature variation (diurnal temperature variation greater than 16 °C) was positively correlated with the term PROM. Compared with the 2.5th percentile diurnal temperature variation (2 °C), exposure to the 95th percentile diurnal temperature variation (17 °C) significantly increased the risk of term PROM (RR 1.229, 95% CI 1.029-1.467). CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to a high-temperature and a high diurnal temperature variation environment will increase the relative risks of PROM. For pregnant women in the 3rd trimester, it is important to reduce exposure to extremely high-temperatures and greater diurnal temperature changes.