Evaluation of qSOFA score, and conjugated bilirubin and creatinine levels for predicting 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis.

ABSTRACT

Sepsis is a dangerous disease that develops rapidly and has a high mortality rate. A timely and accurate assessment of the patient's condition is beneficial in improving prognosis and reducing mortality. Therefore, the present study was designed to investigate the potential association between quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) scores and biochemical indicators, such as conjugated bilirubin (CB) and creatinine levels, with the 28-day prognosis of patients with sepsis in a retrospective observational study. All cases were divided into survival and non-survival groups on the 28th day after diagnosis. The qSOFA scores, and CB and creatinine levels were significantly higher in the non-survival group than in the survival group (both P<0.01). Cox regression models identified CB [hazard ratio (HR), 1.006; P=0.002] and creatinine levels (HR, 1.002; P=0.024) as independent factors affecting 28-day mortality. The area under the curve (AUC) for CB and creatinine levels plus qSOFA score was 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.745-0.834), which was larger than the values for CB level, creatinine level and qSOFA score alone (all P<0.01) in the prognosis of 28-day mortality. The cut-off value of CB and creatinine levels plus qSOFA score for the 28-day mortality was 0.275 (-2.466 + 0.012 x CB + 0.002 x creatinine + 1.289 x qSOFA). Patients with lower combined predictor values had a better prognosis as demonstrated by Kaplan-Meier survival curves (log-rank test, 10.060; P=0.002). In both the septic shock and sepsis groups, the combined predictor value was higher in the non-survival group than in the survival group (P<0.001). Therefore, an increase in the combined predictor value of CB and creatinine levels plus qSOFA score may be an important predictor of disease progression and prognosis in patients with sepsis and septic shock.