Estimating Changes in Contact Patterns in China Over the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Implications for SARS-CoV-2 Spread - Four Cities, China, 2020.
China CDC Wkly
; 5(5): 113-119, 2023 Feb 03.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37006711
ABSTRACT
Introduction:
Previous studies have demonstrated significant changes in social contacts during the first-wave coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Chinese mainland. The purpose of this study was to quantify the time-varying contact patterns by age in Chinese mainland in 2020 and evaluate their impact on the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).Methods:
Diary-based contact surveys were performed for four periods baseline (prior to 2020), outbreak (February 2020), post-lockdown (March-May 2020), and post-epidemic (September-November 2020). We built a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to evaluate the effect of reducing contacts on transmission.Results:
During the post-epidemic period, daily contacts resumed to 26.7%, 14.8%, 46.8%, and 44.2% of the pre-COVID levels in Wuhan, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Changsha, respectively. This suggests a moderate risk of resurgence in Changsha, Shenzhen, and Wuhan, and a low risk in Shanghai. School closure alone was not enough to interrupt transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5, but with the addition of a 75% reduction of contacts at the workplace, it could lead to a 16.8% reduction of the attack rate. To control an outbreak, concerted strategies that target schools, workplaces, and community contacts are needed.Discussion:
Monitoring contact patterns by age is key to quantifying the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks and evaluating the impact of intervention strategies.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Idioma:
En
Revista:
China CDC Wkly
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China