Evaluation and Forecasting Analysis of the Association of Conditional Cash Transfer With Child Mortality in Latin America, 2000-2030.
JAMA Netw Open
; 6(7): e2323489, 2023 Jul 03.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37450301
ABSTRACT
Importance Latin America has implemented the world's largest and most consolidated conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs during the last 2 decades. As a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, poverty rates have markedly increased, and a large number of newly low-income individuals, especially children, have been left unprotected. Objective:
To evaluate the association of CCT programs with child health in Latin American countries during the last 2 decades and forecast child mortality trends up to 2030 according to CCT alternative implementation options. Design, Setting, andParticipants:
This cohort study used a multicountry, longitudinal, ecological design with multivariable negative binomial regression models, which were adjusted for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and health care variables, integrating the retrospective impact evaluations from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, with dynamic microsimulation models to forecast potential child mortality scenarios up to 2030. The study cohort included 4882 municipalities from Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico with adequate quality of civil registration and vital statistics according to a validated multidimensional criterion. Data analysis was performed from September 2022 to February 2023. Exposure Conditional cash transfer coverage of the target (lowest-income) population categorized into 4 levels low (0%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), high (70.0%-99.9%), and consolidated (≥100%). Main Outcomes andMeasures:
The main outcomes were mortality rates for those younger than 5 years and hospitalization rates (per 1000 live births), overall and by poverty-related causes (diarrheal, malnutrition, tuberculosis, malaria, lower respiratory tract infections, and HIV/AIDS), and the mortality rates for those younger than 5 years by age groups, namely, neonatal (0-28 days), postneonatal (28 days to 1 year), infant (<1 year), and toddler (1-4 years).Results:
The retrospective analysis included 4882 municipalities. During the study period of January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, mortality in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico decreased by 7.8% in children and 6.5% in infants, and an increase in coverage of CCT programs of 76.8% was observed in these Latin American countries. Conditional cash transfer programs were associated with significant reductions of mortality rates in those younger than 5 years (rate ratio [RR], 0.76; 95% CI, 0.75-0.76), having prevented 738â¯919 (95% CI, 695â¯641-782â¯104) child deaths during this period. The association of highest coverage of CCT programs was stronger with poverty-related diseases, such as malnutrition (RR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.31-0.35), diarrhea (RR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.40-0.43), lower respiratory tract infections (RR, 0.66, 95% CI, 0.65-0.68), malaria (RR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.93), tuberculosis (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.48-0.79), and HIV/AIDS (RR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.28-0.37). Several sensitivity and triangulation analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. Considering a scenario of moderate economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of CCTs to protect those newly in poverty could reduce the mortality rate for those younger than 5 years by up to 17% (RR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.80-0.85) and prevent 153â¯601 (95% CI, 127â¯441-180â¯600) child deaths by 2030 in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico. Conclusions and Relevance The results of this cohort study suggest that the expansion of CCT programs could strongly reduce childhood hospitalization and mortality in Latin America and should be considered an effective strategy to mitigate the health impact of the current global economic crisis in low- and middle-income countries.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Contexto em Saúde:
2_ODS3
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3_ND
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4_TD
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6_ODS3_enfermedades_notrasmisibles
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7_ODS3_muertes_prevenibles_nacidos_ninos
Problema de saúde:
2_enfermedades_transmissibles
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2_muertes_prevenibles
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3_diarrhea
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3_malaria
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3_neglected_diseases
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3_tuberculosis
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4_aids
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4_covid_19
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4_diarrhoeal_infections
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4_malaria
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4_pneumonia
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4_tuberculosis
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6_malnutrition_nutritional_deficiencies
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6_other_respiratory_diseases
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7_infections
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7_non_communicable_diseases
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7_nutrition
Assunto principal:
Infecções Respiratórias
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Tuberculose
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Infecções por HIV
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Desnutrição
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COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
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Incidence_studies
/
Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Aspecto:
Determinantes_sociais_saude
Limite:
Child
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Humans
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Infant
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Newborn
Idioma:
En
Revista:
JAMA Netw Open
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Brasil