Nowcasting and Forecasting Seasonal Influenza Epidemics - China, 2022-2023.
China CDC Wkly
; 5(49): 1100-1106, 2023 Dec 08.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38125915
ABSTRACT
Background:
Seasonal influenza resurged in China in February 2023, causing a large number of hospitalizations. While influenza epidemics occurred across China during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures in December 2022 may have contributed to the spread of acute respiratory infections in winter 2022/2023.Methods:
Using a mathematical model incorporating influenza activity as measured by influenza-like illness (ILI) data for northern and southern regions of China, we reconstructed the seasonal influenza incidence from October 2015 to September 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic. Using this trained model, we predicted influenza activities in northern and southern China from March to September 2023.Results:
We estimated the effective reproduction number R e as 1.08 [95% confidence interval ( CI) 0.51, 1.65] in northern China and 1.10 (95% CI 0.55, 1.67) in southern China at the start of the 2022-2023 influenza season. We estimated the infection attack rate of this influenza wave as 18.51% (95% CI 0.00%, 37.78%) in northern China and 28.30% (95% CI 14.77%, 41.82%) in southern China.Conclusions:
The 2023 spring wave of seasonal influenza in China spread until July 2023 and infected a substantial number of people.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Idioma:
En
Revista:
China CDC Wkly
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China