[Prognostic value of the Second Revision of the International Staging System in patients with newly diagnosed transplant-eligible multiple myeloma].

ABSTRACT

Objective: To verify the predictive value of the Second Revision of the International Staging System (R2-ISS) in newly diagnosed patients with multiple myeloma (MM) who underwent first-line autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (ASCT) in a new drug era in China. Methods: This multicenter retrospective cohort study enrolled patients with newly diagnosed MM from three centers in China (Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital, Capital Medical University; the First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, and the Second Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University) from June 2008 to June 2018. A total of 401 newly diagnosed patients with MM who were candidates for ASCT were enrolled in this cohort, all received proteasome inhibitor and/or immunomodulator-based induction chemotherapy followed by ASCT. Baseline and follow-up data were collected. The patients were regrouped using R2-ISS. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze the survival curve and two survival curves were compared using the log-rank test. Cox regression analysis were performed to analyze the relationship between risk factors and survival. Results: The median age of the patients was 53 years (range 25-69 years) and 59.5% (240 cases) were men. Newly diagnosed patients with renal impairment accounted for 11.5% (46 cases). According to Revised-International Staging System (R-ISS), 74 patients (18.5 %) were diagnosed with stage Ⅰ, 259 patients (64.6%) with stage Ⅱ, and 68 patients (17.0%) with stage Ⅲ. According to the R2-ISS, the distribution of patients in each group was as follows 50 patients (12.5%) in stage Ⅰ, 95 patients (23.7%) in stage Ⅱ, 206 patients (51.4%) in stage Ⅲ, and 50 patients (12.5%) in stage Ⅳ. The median follow-up time was 35.9 months (range, 6-119 months). According to the R2-ISS stage, the median PFS in each group was 75.3 months for stage Ⅰ; 62.0 months for stage Ⅱ, 39.2 months for stage Ⅲ, and 30.3 months for stage Ⅳ; and the median OS was not reached, 86.6 months, 71.6 months, and 38.5 months, respectively. There were statistically significant differences in PFS and OS between different groups (both P<0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that stages Ⅲ and Ⅳ of the R2-ISS were independent prognostic factors for PFS (HR=2.37, 95%CI 1.30-4.30; HR=4.50, 95%CI 2.35-9.01) and OS (HR=4.20, 95%CI 1.50-11.80; HR=9.53, 95%CI 3.21-28.29). Conclusions: The R2-ISS has significant predictive value for PFS and OS for transplant-eligible patients with MM in the new drug era. However, the universality of the R2-ISS still needs to be further verified in different populations.