Development and validation of a stacking ensemble model for death prediction in the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS).
Maturitas
; 182: 107919, 2024 Apr.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38290423
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
This study aimed to develop and validate a mortality risk prediction model for older people based on the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey using the stacking ensemble strategy. MATERIAL ANDMETHODS:
A total of 12,769 participants aged 65 or more at baseline were included. Ensemble machine learning models were applied to develop a mortality prediction model. We selected three base learners, including logistic regression, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, and Categorical + Boosting, and used logistic regression as the meta-learner. The primary outcome was five-year survival. Variable importance was evaluated by the SHapley Additive exPlanations method.RESULTS:
The mean age at baseline was 88, and 57.8 % of participants were women. The CatBoost model performed the best among the three base learners, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) reached 0.8469 (95%CI 0.8345-0.8593), and the stacking ensemble model further improved the discrimination ability (AUC = 0.8486, 95%CI 0.8367-0.8612, P = 0.046). Conventional logistic regression had comparable performance (AUC = 0.8470, 95 % CI 0.8346-0.8595). Older age, higher scores for self-care activities of daily living, being male, higher objective physical performance capacity scores, not undertaking housework, and lower scores on the Mini-Mental State Examination contributed to higher risk.CONCLUSIONS:
We successfully constructed and validated a few death risk prediction models for a Chinese population of older adults. While the stacking ensemble approach had the best prediction performance, the improvement over conventional logistic regression was insubstantial.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Mortalidade
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Aged
/
Aged80
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
País/Região como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Maturitas
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China