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Estimating the probability of occurrence of African dust outbreaks over regions of the western Mediterranean basin from thermodynamic atmospheric parameters.
Salvador, Pedro; Pey, Jorge; Pérez, Noemí; Alastuey, Andrés; Querol, Xavier; Artíñano, Begoña.
Afiliação
  • Salvador P; CIEMAT, Department of Environment - Joint Research Unit Atmospheric Pollution CIEMAT-CSIC, Av. Complutense 40, 28040 Madrid, Spain. Electronic address: pedro.salvador@ciemat.es.
  • Pey J; Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE), CSIC, Av. Montañana 1005, 50059 Zaragoza, Spain.
  • Pérez N; Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), CSIC, c. Jordi Girona 18, 08034 Barcelona, Spain.
  • Alastuey A; Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), CSIC, c. Jordi Girona 18, 08034 Barcelona, Spain.
  • Querol X; Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), CSIC, c. Jordi Girona 18, 08034 Barcelona, Spain.
  • Artíñano B; CIEMAT, Department of Environment - Joint Research Unit Atmospheric Pollution CIEMAT-CSIC, Av. Complutense 40, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
Sci Total Environ ; 922: 171307, 2024 Apr 20.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38428593
ABSTRACT
Desert dust is currently recognized as a health risk factor. Therefore, the World Health Organization (WHO) is actively promoting the establishment of early warning systems for sand and dust storms. This study introduces a methodology to estimate the probability of African dust outbreaks occurring in eight different regions of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. In each region, a multilinear regression model was developed to calculate daily probabilities of dust events using three thermodynamic variables (geopotential thickness in the 1000-500 hPa layer, mean potential temperature between 925 and 700 hPa, and temperature anomalies at 850 hPa) as assessment parameters. All days with African dust transport over each study region were identified in the period 2001-2021 using a proven procedure. This information was then utilized to establish a functional relationship between the values of the thermodynamic parameters and the probability of African dust outbreaks occurring. The validation of this methodology involved comparing the daily probabilities of dust events generated by the models in 2001-2021 with the daily African dust contributions to PM10 regional background levels in each region. On average, daily dust contributions increased proportionally with the increase in daily probabilities, reaching zero for days with low probabilities. Furthermore, a well-defined seasonal evolution of probability values was observed in all regions, with the highest values in the summer months and the lowest in the winter period, ensuring the physical relevance of the models' results. Finally, upward trends were observed in all regions for the three thermodynamic parameters over 1940-2021. Thus, the probability of dust events development also increased in this period. It demonstrates that the aggravation of warm conditions in southern Europe in the last decades, have modified the frequency of North-African dust outbreaks over the western Mediterranean basin.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Contexto em Saúde: 2_ODS3 Problema de saúde: 2_cobertura_universal Idioma: En Revista: Sci Total Environ Ano de publicação: 2024 Tipo de documento: Article

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Contexto em Saúde: 2_ODS3 Problema de saúde: 2_cobertura_universal Idioma: En Revista: Sci Total Environ Ano de publicação: 2024 Tipo de documento: Article
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