Earthquake forecasting from paleoseismic records.
Nat Commun
; 15(1): 1944, 2024 Mar 02.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38431703
ABSTRACT
Forecasting large earthquakes along active faults is of critical importance for seismic hazard assessment. Statistical models of recurrence intervals based on compilations of paleoseismic data provide a forecasting tool. Here we compare five models and use Bayesian model-averaging to produce time-dependent, probabilistic forecasts of large earthquakes along 93 fault segments worldwide. This approach allows better use of the measurement errors associated with paleoseismic records and accounts for the uncertainty around model choice. Our results indicate that although the majority of fault segments (65/93) in the catalogue favour a single best model, 28 benefit from a model-averaging approach. We provide earthquake rupture probabilities for the next 50 years and forecast the occurrence times of the next rupture for all the fault segments. Our findings suggest that there is no universal model for large earthquake recurrence, and an ensemble forecasting approach is desirable when dealing with paleoseismic records with few data points and large measurement errors.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Contexto em Saúde:
1_ASSA2030
Problema de saúde:
1_surtos_doencas_emergencias
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Nat Commun
Assunto da revista:
BIOLOGIA
/
CIENCIA
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Nova Zelândia