Development of a nomogram for predicting the high-risk groups of solid-pseudopapillary neoplasms of the pancreas.

ABSTRACT

Background: Solid pseudopapillary neoplasms (SPNs) of the pancreas are indolent rare tumors with malignant potential. The risk factors associated with the malignant behavior of SPNs are still unclear. Methods: A retrospective analysis of patients with SPNs who underwent surgical treatment in the First Hospital of Jilin University from January 2010 to January 2022 was conducted. The clinical baseline data, pathology, imaging, and laboratory indicators of the patients were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression to identify the independent risk factors associated with the high-risk groups, and a predictive model was established in the form of a nomogram. Results: In multivariate analysis, clinical symptoms (P < 0.001), unclear tumor margins (P = 0.001), incomplete tumor capsules (P = 0.005), maximum tumor diameters ≥ 7.2 cm (P = 0.003), and prognostic nutritional index values < 47.45 (P = 0.007) were independent risk factor for SPNs with high-risk groups. A nomogram model was successfully established to predict high-risk groups of SPNs. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.856. The calibration prediction curve was in good agreement with the standard curve. Conclusion: The nomogram model based on clinical symptoms, inflammatory markers, and imaging features had a high application value in the preoperative prediction of the high-risk groups of SPNs. A novel nomogram of the affiliated hospital of Jilin University-SPNs risk model was proposed for routine application to guide the patient counseling in clinical practice.