Risk Score for Long-Term Survival and Major Adverse Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Events After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Surgery.

ABSTRACT

To develop risk scoring models predicting long-term survival and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs), including myocardial infarction and stroke after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). All 4,821 consecutive patients who underwent isolated CABG at Lankenau between January 2005 and July 2021 were included. MACCE was defined as all-cause mortality + myocardial infarction + stroke. Variable selection for both outcomes was obtained using a double-selection logit least absolute shrinkage and selection operator with adaptive selection. Model performance was internally evaluated by calibration and accuracy using bootstrap cross-validation. Mortality and MACCEs were compared in patients split into 3 groups based on the predicted risk scores for all-cause mortality and MACCEs. An external validation of our database was performed with 665 patients from the University of Brescia, Italy. Preoperative risk predictors were found to be predictors for all-cause mortality and MACCEs. In addition, being of African-American ethnicity is a significant predictor for MACCEs after isolated CABG. The areas under the curve (AUCs), which measures the discrimination of the models, were 80.4%, 79.1%, 81.3%, and 79.2% for mortality at 1, 2, 3, and 5 years follow-up. The AUCs for MACCEs were 75%, 72.5%, 73.8%, and 72.7% at 1, 2, 3, and 5 years follow-up. For external validation, the AUCs for all-cause mortality and MACCEs at 1, 2, 3, and 5 years were 73.7%, 70.8%, 68.7%, and 72.2% and 72.3%, 68.2%, 65.6%, and 69.6%, respectively. The Advanced (AD) Coronary Risk Score for All-Cause Mortality and MACCE provide good discrimination of long-term mortality and MACCEs after isolated CABG. External validation observed a more AUCs greater than 70%.