Severe weather events and cryptosporidiosis in Aotearoa New Zealand: A case series of space-time clusters.

ABSTRACT

Occurrence of cryptosporidiosis has been associated with weather conditions in many settings internationally. We explored statistical clusters of human cryptosporidiosis and their relationship with severe weather events in New Zealand (NZ). Notified cases of cryptosporidiosis from 1997 to 2015 were obtained from the national surveillance system. Retrospective space-time permutation was used to identify statistical clusters. Cluster data were compared to severe weather events in a national database. SaTScan analysis detected 38 statistically significant cryptosporidiosis clusters. Around a third (34.2%, 13/38) of these clusters showed temporal and spatial alignment with severe weather events. Of these, nearly half (46.2%, 6/13) occurred in the spring. Only five (38%, 5/13) of these clusters corresponded to a previously reported cryptosporidiosis outbreak. This study provides additional evidence that severe weather events may contribute to the development of some cryptosporidiosis clusters. Further research on this association is needed as rainfall intensity is projected to rise in NZ due to climate change. The findings also provide further arguments for upgrading the quality of drinking water sources to minimize contamination with pathogens from runoff from livestock agriculture.