Delving into the Aftermath of a Disease-Associated Near-Extinction Event: A Five-Year Study of a Serpentovirus (Nidovirus) in a Critically Endangered Turtle Population.

ABSTRACT

Bellinger River virus (BRV) is a serpentovirus (nidovirus) that was likely responsible for the catastrophic mortality of the Australian freshwater turtle Myuchelys georgesi in February 2015. From November 2015 to November 2020, swabs were collected from turtles during repeated river surveys to estimate the prevalence of BRV RNA, identify risk factors associated with BRV infection, and refine sample collection. BRV RNA prevalence at first capture was significantly higher in M. georgesi (10.8%) than in a coexisting turtle, Emydura macquarii (1.0%). For M. georgesi, various risk factors were identified depending on the analysis method, but a positive BRV result was consistently associated with a larger body size. All turtles were asymptomatic when sampled and conjunctival swabs were inferred to be optimal for ongoing monitoring. Although the absence of disease and recent BRV detections suggests a reduced ongoing threat, the potential for the virus to persist in an endemic focus or resurge in cyclical epidemics cannot be excluded. Therefore, BRV is an ongoing potential threat to the conservation of M. georgesi, and strict adherence to biosecurity principles is essential to minimise the risk of reintroduction or spread of BRV or other pathogens.