[Exploring the Spatial and Temporal Trajectories of Land Use Carbon Emissions and Influencing Factors in the Aksu River Basin from 1990 to 2020].

ABSTRACT

Land use changes lead to changes in the functions of different types of carbon sources and sinks, which are key sources of carbon emissions. The study of carbon emissions and its influencing factors in the Aksu River Basin from the perspective of land use change is of great importance for the promotion of integrated protection and restoration of mountains, water, forests, fields, lakes, grasslands, sand, and ice in the basin and to help achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Based on four periods of land use data and socio-economic data from 1990 to 2020, the total carbon emissions from land use were measured, and the spatial and temporal trajectories of carbon emissions and their influencing factors were explored. The results showed that① from 1990 to 2020, arable land, forest land, construction land, and unused land showed a general increasing trend, whereas grasslands and water areas showed a decreasing trend. The spatial change in land use types was mainly characterized by the conversion of grasslands and unused land into arable land, and 83.58 % of the arable land conversion areas were concentrated in the southwest of Wensu, Aksu, and the northern part of Awat. ② The total net carbon emissions in the basin showed a continuous growth trend from 1990 to 2020, with a cumulative increase of 14.78×104 t. The increase in arable land was a key factor causing an increase in net carbon emissions in the basin. ③ The spatial distribution pattern of land use carbon emissions in the basin was high in the middle and low in the fourth, with significant changes in net carbon emissions mainly in the southern part of Wensu, Aksu, Awat, and Alaer. ④ Human activities had the strongest driving effect on land use carbon emissions, with their effects gradually increasing from east to west. The contribution of average annual temperature to land use carbon emissions was mainly concentrated in the eastern part of Aksu and the northern part of Awat, whereas average annual rainfall had a strong inhibitory effect on the northern part of Wensu and the western part of Aheqi.