Development of a diagnostic algorithm to ascertain malignant pleural effusion utilizing clinical indicators and serum metal concentrations.

ABSTRACT

Background: Malignant pleural effusion (MPE) is prevalent among cancer patients, indicating pleural metastasis and predicting poor prognosis. However, accurately identifying MPE in clinical settings is challenging. The aim of this study was to establish an innovative nomogram-derived model based on clinical indicators and serum metal ion levels to identify MPE. Methods: From July 2020 to May 2022, 428 patients diagnosed with pleural effusion (PE) were consecutively recruited. Comprehensive demographic details, clinical symptoms, imaging data, pathological information, and laboratory results, including serum metal ion levels, were systematically collected. The nomogram was created by incorporating the most significant predictors identified through LASSO and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The predictors were assigned weighted points based on their respective regression coefficients, allowing for the calculation of a total score that corresponds to the probability of MPE. Internal validation using bootstrapping techniques assessed the nomogram's performance, including calibration, discrimination, and clinical applicability. Results: Seven key variables were identified using LASSO regression and multiple regression analysis, including dyspnea, fever, X-ray/CT compatible with malignancy, pleural carcinoembryonic antigen(pCEA), serum neuron-specific enolase(sNSE), serum carcinoembryonic antigen(sCEA), and pleural lactate dehydrogenase(pLDH). Internal validation underscored the superior performance of our model (AUC=0.940). Decision curve analysis (DCA) analysis demonstrated substantial net benefit across a probability threshold range > 1%. Additionally, serum calcium and copper levels were significantly higher, while serum zinc levels were significantly lower in MPE patients compared to benign pleural effusion (BPE) patients. Conclusion: This study effectively developed a user-friendly and reliable MPE identification model incorporating seven markers, aiding in the classification of PE subtypes in clinical settings. Furthermore, our study highlights the clinical value of serum metal ions in distinguishing malignant pleural effusion from BPE. This significant advancement provides essential tools for physicians to accurately diagnose and treat patients with MPE.