Phenotypic switching mechanisms determine the structure of cell migration into extracellular matrix under the 'go-or-grow' hypothesis.

A fundamental feature of collective cell migration is phenotypic heterogeneity which, for example, influences tumour progression and relapse. While current mathematical models often consider discrete phenotypic structuring of the cell population, in-line with the 'go-or-grow' hypothesis (Hatzikirou et al., 2012; Stepien et al., 2018), they regularly overlook the role that the environment may play in determining the cells' phenotype during migration. Comparing a previously studied volume-filling model for a homogeneous population of generalist cells that can proliferate, move and degrade extracellular matrix (ECM) (Crossley et al., 2023) to a novel model for a heterogeneous population comprising two distinct sub-populations of specialist cells that can either move and degrade ECM or proliferate, this study explores how different hypothetical phenotypic switching mechanisms affect the speed and structure of the invading cell populations. Through a continuum model derived from its individual-based counterpart, insights into the influence of the ECM and the impact of phenotypic switching on migrating cell populations emerge. Notably, specialist cell populations that cannot switch phenotype show reduced invasiveness compared to generalist cell populations, while implementing different forms of switching significantly alters the structure of migrating cell fronts. This key result suggests that the structure of an invading cell population could be used to infer the underlying mechanisms governing phenotypic switching.

Smoothing in linear multicompartment biological processes subject to stochastic input.

Many physical and biological systems rely on the progression of material through multiple independent stages. In viral replication, for example, virions enter a cell to undergo a complex process comprising several disparate stages before the eventual accumulation and release of replicated virions. While such systems may have some control over the internal dynamics that make up this progression, a challenge for many is to regulate behavior under what are often highly variable external environments acting as system inputs. In this work, we study a simple analog of this problem through a linear multicompartment model subject to a stochastic input in the form of a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, a type of Gaussian process. By expressing the system as a multidimensional Gaussian process, we derive several closed-form analytical results relating to the covariances and autocorrelations of the system, quantifying the smoothing effect discrete compartments afford multicompartment systems. Semianalytical results demonstrate that feedback and feedforward loops can enhance system robustness, and simulation results probe the intractable problem of the first passage time distribution, which has specific relevance to eventual cell lysis in the viral replication cycle. Finally, we demonstrate that the smoothing seen in the process is a consequence of the discreteness of the system, and does not manifest in systems with continuous transport. While we make progress through analysis of a simple linear problem, many of our insights are applicable more generally, and our work enables future analysis into multicompartment processes subject to stochastic inputs.

Optimal Control of Collective Electrotaxis in Epithelial Monolayers.

Epithelial monolayers are some of the best-studied models for collective cell migration due to their abundance in multicellular systems and their tractability. Experimentally, the collective migration of epithelial monolayers can be robustly steered e.g. using electric fields, via a process termed electrotaxis. Theoretically, however, the question of how to design an electric field to achieve a desired spatiotemporal movement pattern is underexplored. In this work, we construct and calibrate an ordinary differential equation model to predict the average velocity of the centre of mass of a cellular monolayer in response to stimulation with an electric field. We use this model, in conjunction with optimal control theory, to derive physically realistic optimal electric field designs to achieve a variety of aims, including maximising the total distance travelled by the monolayer, maximising the monolayer velocity, and keeping the monolayer velocity constant during stimulation. Together, this work is the first to present a unified framework for optimal control of collective monolayer electrotaxis and provides a blueprint to optimally steer collective migration using other external cues.

Quantifying cell cycle regulation by tissue crowding.

The spatiotemporal coordination and regulation of cell proliferation is fundamental in many aspects of development and tissue maintenance. Cells have the ability to adapt their division rates in response to mechanical constraints, yet we do not fully understand how cell proliferation regulation impacts cell migration phenomena. Here, we present a minimal continuum model of cell migration with cell cycle dynamics, which includes density-dependent effects and hence can account for cell proliferation regulation. By combining minimal mathematical modeling, Bayesian inference, and recent experimental data, we quantify the impact of tissue crowding across different cell cycle stages in epithelial tissue expansion experiments. Our model suggests that cells sense local density and adapt cell cycle progression in response, during G1 and the combined S/G2/M phases, providing an explicit relationship between each cell-cycle-stage duration and local tissue density, which is consistent with several experimental observations. Finally, we compare our mathematical model's predictions to different experiments studying cell cycle regulation and present a quantitative analysis on the impact of density-dependent regulation on cell migration patterns. Our work presents a systematic approach for investigating and analyzing cell cycle data, providing mechanistic insights into how individual cells regulate proliferation, based on population-based experimental measurements.

Parameter identifiability and model selection for partial differential equation models of cell invasion.

When employing mechanistic models to study biological phenomena, practical parameter identifiability is important for making accurate predictions across wide ranges of unseen scenarios, as well as for understanding the underlying mechanisms. In this work, we use a profile-likelihood approach to investigate parameter identifiability for four extensions of the Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov (Fisher-KPP) model, given experimental data from a cell invasion assay. We show that more complicated models tend to be less identifiable, with parameter estimates being more sensitive to subtle differences in experimental procedures, and that they require more data to be practically identifiable. As a result, we suggest that parameter identifiability should be considered alongside goodness-of-fit and model complexity as criteria for model selection.

Spatial heterogeneity in collective electrotaxis: continuum modelling and applications to optimal control.

Collective electrotaxis is a phenomenon that occurs when a cellular collective, for example an epithelial monolayer, is subjected to an electric field. Biologically, it is well known that the velocity of migration during the collective electrotaxis of large epithelia exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity. In this work, we demonstrate that the heterogeneity of velocities in the electrotaxing epithelium can be accounted for by a continuum model of cue competition in different tissue regions. Having established a working model of competing migratory cues in the migrating epithelium, we develop and validate a reaction-convection-diffusion model that describes the movement of an epithelial monolayer as it undergoes electrotaxis. We use the model to predict how tissue size and geometry affect the collective migration of MDCK monolayers, and to propose several ways in which electric fields can be designed such that they give rise to a desired spatial pattern of collective migration. We conclude with two examples that demonstrate practical applications of the method in designing bespoke stimulation protocols.

Optimal control of collective electrotaxis in epithelial monolayers.

Epithelial monolayers are some of the best-studied models for collective cell migration due to their abundance in multicellular systems and their tractability. Experimentally, the collective migration of epithelial monolayers can be robustly steered e.g. using electric fields, via a process termed electrotaxis. Theoretically, however, the question of how to design an electric field to achieve a desired spatiotemporal movement pattern is underexplored. In this work, we construct and calibrate an ordinary differential equation model to predict the average velocity of the centre of mass of a cellular monolayer in response to stimulation with an electric field. We use this model, in conjunction with optimal control theory, to derive physically realistic optimal electric field designs to achieve a variety of aims, including maximising the total distance travelled by the monolayer, maximising the monolayer velocity, and keeping the monolayer velocity constant during stimulation. Together, this work is the first to present a unified framework for optimal control of collective monolayer electrotaxis and provides a blueprint to optimally steer collective migration using other external cues.

Predicting Radiotherapy Patient Outcomes with Real-Time Clinical Data Using Mathematical Modelling.

Longitudinal tumour volume data from head-and-neck cancer patients show that tumours of comparable pre-treatment size and stage may respond very differently to the same radiotherapy fractionation protocol. Mathematical models are often proposed to predict treatment outcome in this context, and have the potential to guide clinical decision-making and inform personalised fractionation protocols. Hindering effective use of models in this context is the sparsity of clinical measurements juxtaposed with the model complexity required to produce the full range of possible patient responses. In this work, we present a compartment model of tumour volume and tumour composition, which, despite relative simplicity, is capable of producing a wide range of patient responses. We then develop novel statistical methodology and leverage a cohort of existing clinical data to produce a predictive model of both tumour volume progression and the associated level of uncertainty that evolves throughout a patient's course of treatment. To capture inter-patient variability, all model parameters are patient specific, with a bootstrap particle filter-like Bayesian approach developed to model a set of training data as prior knowledge. We validate our approach against a subset of unseen data, and demonstrate both the predictive ability of our trained model and its limitations.

A mathematical framework for the emergence of winners and losers in cell competition.

Cell competition is a process in multicellular organisms where cells interact with their neighbours to determine a "winner" or "loser" status. The loser cells are eliminated through programmed cell death, leaving only the winner cells to populate the tissue. Cell competition is context-dependent; the same cell type can win or lose depending on the cell type it is competing against. Hence, winner/loser status is an emergent property. A key question in cell competition is: how do cells acquire their winner/loser status? In this paper, we propose a mathematical framework for studying the emergence of winner/loser status based on a set of quantitative criteria that distinguishes competitive from non-competitive outcomes. We apply this framework in a cell-based modelling context, to both highlight the crucial role of active cell death in cell competition and identify the factors that drive cell competition.

Quantifying tissue growth, shape and collision via continuum models and Bayesian inference.

Although tissues are usually studied in isolation, this situation rarely occurs in biology, as cells, tissues and organs coexist and interact across scales to determine both shape and function. Here, we take a quantitative approach combining data from recent experiments, mathematical modelling and Bayesian parameter inference, to describe the self-assembly of multiple epithelial sheets by growth and collision. We use two simple and well-studied continuum models, where cells move either randomly or following population pressure gradients. After suitable calibration, both models prove to be practically identifiable, and can reproduce the main features of single tissue expansions. However, our findings reveal that whenever tissue-tissue interactions become relevant, the random motion assumption can lead to unrealistic behaviour. Under this setting, a model accounting for population pressure from different cell populations is more appropriate and shows a better agreement with experimental measurements. Finally, we discuss how tissue shape and pressure affect multi-tissue collisions. Our work thus provides a systematic approach to quantify and predict complex tissue configurations with applications in the design of tissue composites and more generally in tissue engineering.

Dynamic fibronectin assembly and remodeling by leader neural crest cells prevents jamming in collective cell migration.

Collective cell migration plays an essential role in vertebrate development, yet the extent to which dynamically changing microenvironments influence this phenomenon remains unclear. Observations of the distribution of the extracellular matrix (ECM) component fibronectin during the migration of loosely connected neural crest cells (NCCs) lead us to hypothesize that NCC remodeling of an initially punctate ECM creates a scaffold for trailing cells, enabling them to form robust and coherent stream patterns. We evaluate this idea in a theoretical setting by developing an individual-based computational model that incorporates reciprocal interactions between NCCs and their ECM. ECM remodeling, haptotaxis, contact guidance, and cell-cell repulsion are sufficient for cells to establish streams in silico, however, additional mechanisms, such as chemotaxis, are required to consistently guide cells along the correct target corridor. Further model investigations imply that contact guidance and differential cell-cell repulsion between leader and follower cells are key contributors to robust collective cell migration by preventing stream breakage. Global sensitivity analysis and simulated gain- and loss-of-function experiments suggest that long-distance migration without jamming is most likely to occur when leading cells specialize in creating ECM fibers, and trailing cells specialize in responding to environmental cues by upregulating mechanisms such as contact guidance.

Colec12 and Trail signaling confine cranial neural crest cell trajectories and promote collective cell migration.

BACKGROUND: Collective and discrete neural crest cell (NCC) migratory streams are crucial to vertebrate head patterning. However, the factors that confine NCC trajectories and promote collective cell migration remain unclear. RESULTS: Computational simulations predicted that confinement is required only along the initial one-third of the cranial NCC migratory pathway. This guided our study of Colec12 (Collectin-12, a transmembrane scavenger receptor C-type lectin) and Trail (tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand, CD253) which we show expressed in chick cranial NCC-free zones. NCC trajectories are confined by Colec12 or Trail protein stripes in vitro and show significant and distinct changes in cell morphology and dynamic migratory characteristics when cocultured with either protein. Gain- or loss-of-function of either factor or in combination enhanced NCC confinement or diverted cell trajectories as observed in vivo with three-dimensional confocal microscopy, respectively, resulting in disrupted collective migration. CONCLUSIONS: These data provide evidence for Colec12 and Trail as novel NCC microenvironmental factors playing a role to confine cranial NCC trajectories and promote collective cell migration.

A model-informed approach to assess the risk of immune checkpoint inhibitor-induced autoimmune myocarditis.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), as a novel immunotherapy, are designed to modulate the immune system to attack malignancies. Despite their promising benefits, immune-related adverse events (IRAEs) may occur, and incidences are bound to increase with surging demand of this class of drugs in treating cancer. Myocarditis, although rare compared to other IRAEs, has a significantly higher fatal frequency. Due to the overwhelming complexity of the immune system, this condition is not well understood, despite the significant research efforts devoted to it. To better understand the development and progression of autoimmune myocarditis and the roles of ICIs therein, we suggest a new approach: mathematical modelling. Mathematical modelling of myocarditis has enormous potential to determine which parts of the immune system are critical to the development and progression of the disease, and therefore warrant further investigation. We provide the immunological background needed to develop a mathematical model of this disease and review relevant existing models of immunology that serve as the mathematical inspiration needed to develop this field.

Efficient Bayesian inference for mechanistic modelling with high-throughput data.

Bayesian methods are routinely used to combine experimental data with detailed mathematical models to obtain insights into physical phenomena. However, the computational cost of Bayesian computation with detailed models has been a notorious problem. Moreover, while high-throughput data presents opportunities to calibrate sophisticated models, comparing large amounts of data with model simulations quickly becomes computationally prohibitive. Inspired by the method of Stochastic Gradient Descent, we propose a minibatch approach to approximate Bayesian computation. Through a case study of a high-throughput imaging scratch assay experiment, we show that reliable inference can be performed at a fraction of the computational cost of a traditional Bayesian inference scheme. By applying a detailed mathematical model of single cell motility, proliferation and death to a data set of 118 gene knockdowns, we characterise functional subgroups of gene knockdowns, each displaying its own typical combination of local cell density-dependent and -independent motility and proliferation patterns. By comparing these patterns to experimental measurements of cell counts and wound closure, we find that density-dependent interactions play a crucial role in the process of wound healing.

Reliable and efficient parameter estimation using approximate continuum limit descriptions of stochastic models.

Stochastic individual-based mathematical models are attractive for modelling biological phenomena because they naturally capture the stochasticity and variability that is often evident in biological data. Such models also allow us to track the motion of individuals within the population of interest. Unfortunately, capturing this microscopic detail means that simulation and parameter inference can become computationally expensive. One approach for overcoming this computational limitation is to coarse-grain the stochastic model to provide an approximate continuum model that can be solved using far less computational effort. However, coarse-grained continuum models can be biased or inaccurate, particularly for certain parameter regimes. In this work, we combine stochastic and continuum mathematical models in the context of lattice-based models of two-dimensional cell biology experiments by demonstrating how to simulate two commonly used experiments: cell proliferation assays and barrier assays. Our approach involves building a simple statistical model of the discrepancy between the expensive stochastic model and the associated computationally inexpensive coarse-grained continuum model. We form this statistical model based on a limited number of expensive stochastic model evaluations at design points sampled from a user-chosen distribution, corresponding to a computer experiment design problem. With straightforward design point selection schemes, we show that using the statistical model of the discrepancy in tandem with the computationally inexpensive continuum model allows us to carry out prediction and inference while correcting for biases and inaccuracies due to the continuum approximation. We demonstrate this approach by simulating a proliferation assay, where the continuum limit model is the well-known logistic ordinary differential equation, as well as a barrier assay where the continuum limit model is closely related to the well-known Fisher-KPP partial differential equation. We construct an approximate likelihood function for parameter inference, both with and without discrepancy correction terms. Using maximum likelihood estimation, we provide point estimates of the unknown parameters, and use the profile likelihood to characterise the uncertainty in these estimates and form approximate confidence intervals. For the range of inference problems considered, working with the continuum limit model alone leads to biased parameter estimation and confidence intervals with poor coverage. In contrast, incorporating correction terms arising from the statistical model of the model discrepancy allows us to recover the parameters accurately with minimal computational overhead. The main tradeoff is that the associated confidence intervals are typically broader, reflecting the additional uncertainty introduced by the approximation process. All algorithms required to replicate the results in this work are written in the open source Julia language and are available at GitHub.

Parameter identifiability and model selection for sigmoid population growth models.

Sigmoid growth models, such as the logistic, Gompertz and Richards' models, are widely used to study population dynamics ranging from microscopic populations of cancer cells, to continental-scale human populations. Fundamental questions about model selection and parameter estimation are critical if these models are to be used to make practical inferences. However, the question of parameter identifiability - whether a data set contains sufficient information to give unique or sufficiently precise parameter estimates - is often overlooked. We use a profile-likelihood approach to explore practical parameter identifiability using data describing the re-growth of hard coral. With this approach, we explore the relationship between parameter identifiability and model misspecification, finding that the logistic growth model does not suffer identifiability issues for the type of data we consider whereas the Gompertz and Richards' models encounter practical non-identifiability issues. This analysis of parameter identifiability and model selection is important because different growth models are in biological modelling without necessarily considering whether parameters are identifiable. Standard practices that do not consider parameter identifiability can lead to unreliable or imprecise parameter estimates and potentially misleading mechanistic interpretations. For example, using the Gompertz model, the estimate of the time scale of coral re-growth is 625 days when we estimate the initial density from the data, whereas it is 1429 days using a more standard approach where variability in the initial density is ignored. While tools developed here focus on three standard sigmoid growth models only, our theoretical developments are applicable to any sigmoid growth model and any appropriate data set. MATLAB implementations of all software are available on GitHub.

Mathematical modelling of autoimmune myocarditis and the effects of immune checkpoint inhibitors.

Autoimmune myocarditis is a rare, but frequently fatal, side effect of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), a class of cancer therapies. Despite extensive experimental work on the causes, development and progression of this disease, much still remains unknown about the importance of the different immunological pathways involved. We present a mathematical model of autoimmune myocarditis and the effects of ICIs on its development and progression to either resolution or chronic inflammation. From this, we gain a better understanding of the role of immune cells, cytokines and other components of the immune system in driving the cardiotoxicity of ICIs. We parameterise the model using existing data from the literature, and show that qualitative model behaviour is consistent with disease characteristics seen in patients in an ICI-free context. The bifurcation structures of the model show how the presence of ICIs increases the risk of developing autoimmune myocarditis. This predictive modelling approach is a first step towards determining treatment regimens that balance the benefits of treating cancer with the risk of developing autoimmune myocarditis.

Profile likelihood analysis for a stochastic model of diffusion in heterogeneous media.

We compute profile likelihoods for a stochastic model of diffusive transport motivated by experimental observations of heat conduction in layered skin tissues. This process is modelled as a random walk in a layered one-dimensional material, where each layer has a distinct particle hopping rate. Particles are released at some location, and the duration of time taken for each particle to reach an absorbing boundary is recorded. To explore whether these data can be used to identify the hopping rates in each layer, we compute various profile likelihoods using two methods: first, an exact likelihood is evaluated using a relatively expensive Markov chain approach; and, second, we form an approximate likelihood by assuming the distribution of exit times is given by a Gamma distribution whose first two moments match the moments from the continuum limit description of the stochastic model. Using the exact and approximate likelihoods, we construct various profile likelihoods for a range of problems. In cases where parameter values are not identifiable, we make progress by re-interpreting those data with a reduced model with a smaller number of layers.

Quantifying the impact of electric fields on single-cell motility.

Cell motility in response to environmental cues forms the basis of many developmental processes in multicellular organisms. One such environmental cue is an electric field (EF), which induces a form of motility known as electrotaxis. Electrotaxis has evolved in a number of cell types to guide wound healing and has been associated with different cellular processes, suggesting that observed electrotactic behavior is likely a combination of multiple distinct effects arising from the presence of an EF. To determine the different mechanisms by which observed electrotactic behavior emerges, and thus to design EFs that can be applied to direct and control electrotaxis, researchers require accurate quantitative predictions of cellular responses to externally applied fields. Here, we use mathematical modeling to formulate and parameterize a variety of hypothetical descriptions of how cell motility may change in response to an EF. We calibrate our model to observed data using synthetic likelihoods and Bayesian sequential learning techniques and demonstrate that EFs bias cellular motility through only one of a selection of hypothetical mechanisms. We also demonstrate how the model allows us to make predictions about cellular motility under different EFs. The resulting model and calibration methodology will thus form the basis for future data-driven and model-based feedback control strategies based on electric actuation.