Modelling the longitudinal dynamics of paranoia in psychosis: A temporal network analysis over 20 years.

BACKGROUND: Paranoia is a key feature of psychosis that can be highly debilitating. Theories of paranoia mostly interface with short-scale or cross-sectional data models, leaving the longitudinal course of paranoia underspecified. METHODS: We develop an empirical characterisation of two aspects of paranoia - persecutory and referential delusions - in individuals with psychosis over 20 years. We examine delusional dynamics by applying a Graphical Vector Autoregression Model to data collected from the Chicago Follow-up Study (n = 135 with a range of psychosis-spectrum diagnoses). We adjusted for age, sex, IQ, and antipsychotic use. RESULTS: We found that referential and persecutory delusions are central themes, supported by other primary delusions, and are strongly autoregressive - the presence of referential and persecutory delusions is predictive of their future occurrence. In a second analysis we demonstrate that social factors influence the severity of referential, but not persecutory, delusions. IMPLICATIONS: We suggest that persecutory delusions represent central, resistant states in the cognitive landscape, whereas referential beliefs are more flexible, offering an important window of opportunity for intervention. Our data models can be collated with prior biological, computational, and social work to contribute toward a more complete theory of paranoia and provide more time-dependent evidence for optimal treatment targets.

D2/D3 dopamine supports the precision of mental state inferences and self-relevance of joint social outcomes.

Striatal dopamine is important in paranoid attributions, although its computational role in social inference remains elusive. We employed a simple game-theoretic paradigm and computational model of intentional attributions to investigate the effects of dopamine D2/D3 antagonism on ongoing mental state inference following social outcomes. Haloperidol, compared with the placebo, enhanced the impact of partner behaviour on beliefs about the harmful intent of partners, and increased learning from recent encounters. These alterations caused substantial changes to model covariation and negative correlations between self-interest and harmful intent attributions. Our findings suggest that haloperidol improves belief flexibility about others and simultaneously reduces the self-relevance of social observations. Our results may reflect the role of D2/D3 dopamine in supporting self-relevant mentalising. Our data and model bridge theory between general and social accounts of value representation. We demonstrate initial evidence for the sensitivity of our model and short social paradigm to drug intervention and clinical dimensions, allowing distinctions between mechanisms that operate across traits and states.

Knowing me, knowing you: Interpersonal similarity improves predictive accuracy and reduces attributions of harmful intent.

To benefit from social interactions, people need to predict how their social partners will behave. Such predictions arise through integrating prior expectations with evidence from observations, but where the priors come from and whether they influence the integration into beliefs about a social partner is not clear. Furthermore, this process can be affected by factors such as paranoia, in which the tendency to form biased impressions of others is common. Using a modified social value orientation (SVO) task in a large online sample (n = 697), we showed that participants used a Bayesian inference process to learn about partners, with priors that were based on their own preferences. Paranoia was associated with preferences for earning more than a partner and less flexible beliefs regarding a partner's social preferences. Alignment between the preferences of participants and their partners was associated with better predictions and with reduced attributions of harmful intent to partners. Together, our data and model expand upon theories of interpersonal relationships by demonstrating how dyadic similarity mechanistically influences social interaction by generating more accurate predictions and less threatening impressions.

Dopamine manipulations modulate paranoid social inferences in healthy people.

Altered dopamine transmission is thought to influence the formation of persecutory delusions. However, despite extensive evidence from clinical studies there is little experimental evidence on how modulating the dopamine system changes social attributions related to paranoia, and the salience of beliefs more generally. Twenty seven healthy male participants received 150mg L-DOPA, 3 mg haloperidol, or placebo in a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled study, over three within-subject sessions. Participants completed a multi-round Dictator Game modified to measure social attributions, and a measure of belief salience spanning themes of politics, religion, science, morality, and the paranormal. We preregistered predictions that altering dopamine function would affect (i) attributions of harmful intent and (ii) salience of paranormal beliefs. As predicted, haloperidol reduced attributions of harmful intent across all conditions compared to placebo. L-DOPA reduced attributions of harmful intent in fair conditions compared to placebo. Unexpectedly, haloperidol increased attributions of self-interest about opponents' decisions. There was no change in belief salience within any theme. These results could not be explained by scepticism or subjective mood. Our findings demonstrate the selective involvement of dopamine in social inferences related to paranoia in healthy individuals.

Paranoia, sensitization and social inference: findings from two large-scale, multi-round behavioural experiments.

The sensitization model suggests that paranoia is explained by over-sensitivity to social threat. However, this has been difficult to test experimentally. We report two preregistered social interaction studies that tested (i) whether paranoia predicted overall attribution and peak attribution of harmful intent and (ii) whether anxiety, interpersonal sensitivity and worry predicted the attribution of harmful intent. In Study 1, we recruited a large general population sample (N = 987) who serially interacted with other participants in multi-round dictator games and matched to fair, partially fair or unfair partners. Participants rated attributions of harmful intent and self-interest after each interaction. In Study 2 (N = 1011), a new sample of participants completed the same procedure and additionally completed measures of anxiety, worry and interpersonal sensitivity. As predicted, prior paranoid ideation was associated with higher and faster overall harmful intent attributions, whereas attributions of self-interest were unaffected, supporting the sensitization model. Contrary to predictions, neither worry, interpersonal sensitivity nor anxiety was associated with harmful intent attributions. In a third exploratory internal meta-analysis, we combined datasets to examine the effect of paranoia on trial-by-trial attributional changes when playing fair and unfair dictators. Paranoia was associated with a greater reduction in harmful intent attributions when playing a fair but not unfair dictator, suggesting that paranoia may also exaggerate the volatility of beliefs about the harmful intent of others.