Improving processing speed in adolescents at clinical high risk for psychosis with the Specific COgnitive REmediation plus Surround (SCORES) intervention: Study protocol.

AIM: Recent preventative approaches with young people at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) have focused on the remediation of the cognitive deficits that are readily apparent and predictive of future illness. However, the small number of trials using cognitive remediation with CHR-P individuals have reported mixed results. The proposed 2-phased study will test an innovative internet-based and remotely-delivered Specific COgnitive REmediation plus Surround (or SCORES) intervention that targets early processing speed deficits in CHR-P adolescents aged 14-20 years old. METHODS: In the first R61 phase, a single-arm 2-year proof of concept study, 30 CHR-P individuals will receive SCORES for 10 weeks (4 h per week/40 h total) with a midpoint assessment at 20 h (5 weeks) to demonstrate target engagement and identify the optimal dose needed to engage the target. The Go/No-Go criteria to move to the R33 phase will be processing speed scores improving by a medium effect size (Cohen's d ≥ .6). The proposed package includes a set of complimentary support surround procedures to increase enjoyment and ensure that participants will complete the home-based training. In the second R33 phase, a 3-year pilot study, we will replicate target engagement in a new and larger sample of 54 CHR-P individuals randomized to SCORES (optimized dose) or to a video game playing control condition. In addition, the R33 phase will determine if changes in processing speed are associated with improved social functioning and decreasing attenuated positive symptoms. The support surround components of the intervention will remain constant across phases and conditions in the R33 phase to firmly establish the centrality of processing speed training for successful remediation. CONCLUSIONS: The SCORES study is a completely virtual intervention that targets a core cognitive mechanism, processing speed, which is a rate-limiting factor to higher order behaviours and clinical outcomes in CHR-P adolescents. The virtual nature of this study should increase feasibility as well improve the future scalability of the intervention with considerable potential for future dissemination as a complete treatment package.

Neurocognition in adolescents and young adults at clinical high risk for psychosis: Predictive stability for social and role functioning.

The prodromal phase of schizophrenia provides an optimal opportunity to mitigate the profound functional disability that is often associated with fully expressed psychosis. Considerable evidence supports the importance of neurocognition in the development of interpersonal (social) and academic (role) skills. Further findings from adolescents and young adults at clinical high risk for developing psychosis (CHRP) suggest that treatment for functioning might be most effective when targeting early and specific neurocognitive deficits. The current study addresses this critical intervention issue by examining the potential of neurocognitive deficits at intake for predicting social and role functioning over time in CHR-P youth. The study included 345 CHR-P participants from the second phase of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS2) with baseline neurocognition and 2-year follow-up data on social and role functioning. Slower baseline processing speed consistently predicted poor social functioning over time, while attention deficits predicted poor role functioning at baseline and follow-up. In addition, the impact of processing speed and attention impairments on social and role functioning, respectively, persisted even when adjusting the regression models for attenuated positive, negative, and disorganized symptoms, and transition status. The current study demonstrates for, arguably the first time, that processing speed and attention are strongly predictive of social and role functioning over time, respectively, above and beyond the impact of symptoms and those CHR-P individuals that develop psychosis over the course of the study. These findings imply that early neurocognition is a critical treatment target linked to the developmental trajectory of social and role functioning.

Sex differences in clinical presentation in youth at high risk for psychosis who transition to psychosis.

Sex differences have been observed in individuals with schizophrenia and for those at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis. However, specific differences in CHR individuals who transition to psychosis remain inconsistent and understudied. This study aimed to investigate sex differences in 156 CHR individuals who made the transition to psychosis. A wide range of demographics, positive and negative symptoms, depression, anxiety, social and role functioning, trauma, and substance use were assessed at baseline and symptoms and diagnoses at the time of transition. Fluctuations in positive and negative symptoms and different medications were also assessed. No sex differences were observed at baseline for those who later transitioned to psychosis. At transition, males were significantly more likely to be diagnosed as having schizophrenia or schizophreniform disorder and through the course of the study, males were more likely to be taking stimulants. Limitations in this study was the lack of longitudinal follow-up post transition. The study highlights the need for further research on sex differences in individuals who transition to psychosis. Understanding these differences can have implications for treatment and monitoring of CHR individuals.

Longitudinal Trajectories of Premorbid Social and Academic Adjustment in Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: Implications for Conversion.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Social and academic adjustment deteriorate in the years preceding a psychotic disorder diagnosis. Analyses of premorbid adjustment have recently been extended into the clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) syndrome to identify risk factors and developmental pathways toward psychotic disorders. Work so far has been at the between-person level, which has constrained analyses of premorbid adjustment, clinical covariates, and conversion to psychosis. STUDY DESIGN: Growth-curve models examined longitudinal trajectories in retrospective reports of premorbid social and academic adjustment from youth at CHR (n = 498). Interaction models tested whether known covariates of premorbid adjustment problems (attenuated negative symptoms, cognition, and childhood trauma) were associated with different premorbid adjustment trajectories in converters vs non-converters (ie, participants who did/did not develop psychotic disorders within 2-year follow-up). STUDY RESULTS: Converters reported poorer social adjustment throughout the premorbid period. Converters who developed psychosis with an affective component reported poorer academic adjustment throughout the premorbid period than those who developed non-affective psychosis. Tentatively, baseline attenuated negative symptoms may have been associated with worsening social adjustment in the premorbid period for non-converters only. Childhood trauma impact was associated with fewer academic functioning problems among converters. Cognition effects did not differ based on conversion status. CONCLUSIONS: Premorbid social function is an important factor in risk for conversion to psychosis. Negative symptoms and childhood trauma had different relationships to premorbid functioning in converters vs non-converters. Mechanisms linking symptoms and trauma to functional impairment may be different in converters vs non-converters, suggesting possible new avenues for risk assessment.

The Complex Latent Structure of Attenuated Psychotic Symptoms: Hierarchical and Bifactor Models of SIPS Symptoms Replicated in Two Large Samples at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: The Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes (SIPS) and other assessments of psychosis risk define clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) by the presence of attenuated psychotic symptoms. Despite extensive research on attenuated psychotic symptoms, substantial questions remain about their internal psychometric structure and relationships to comorbid non-psychotic symptoms. STUDY DESIGN: Hierarchical and bifactor models were developed for the SIPS in a large CHR sample (NAPLS-3, N = 787) and confirmed through preregistered replication in an independent sample (NAPLS-2, N = 1043). Criterion validity was tested through relationships with CHR status, comorbid symptoms/diagnoses, functional impairment, demographics, neurocognition, and conversion to psychotic disorders. STUDY RESULTS: Most variance in SIPS items (75%-77%) was attributable to a general factor. Hierarchical and bifactor models included a general factor and five specific/lower-order factors (positive symptoms, eccentricity, avolition, lack of emotion, and deteriorated thought process). CHR participants were elevated on the general factor and the positive symptoms factor. The general factor was associated with depressive symptoms; functional impairment; and mood, anxiety, and schizotypal personality diagnoses. The general factor was the best predictor of psychotic disorders (d ≥ 0.50). Positive symptoms and eccentricity had specific effects on conversion outcomes. The deteriorated thought process was least meaningful/replicable. CONCLUSIONS: Attenuated psychotic symptoms, measured by the SIPS, have a complex hierarchical structure with a strong general factor. The general factor relates to internalizing symptoms and functional impairment, emphasizing the roles of general psychopathological distress/impairment in psychosis risk. Shared symptom variance complicates the interpretation of raw symptom scores. Broad transdiagnostic assessment is warranted to model psychosis risk accurately.

Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia (AMP® SCZ): Rationale and Study Design of the Largest Global Prospective Cohort Study of Clinical High Risk for Psychosis.

This article describes the rationale, aims, and methodology of the Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia (AMP® SCZ). This is the largest international collaboration to date that will develop algorithms to predict trajectories and outcomes of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis and to advance the development and use of novel pharmacological interventions for CHR individuals. We present a description of the participating research networks and the data processing analysis and coordination center, their processes for data harmonization across 43 sites from 13 participating countries (recruitment across North America, Australia, Europe, Asia, and South America), data flow and quality assessment processes, data analyses, and the transfer of data to the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) Data Archive (NDA) for use by the research community. In an expected sample of approximately 2000 CHR individuals and 640 matched healthy controls, AMP SCZ will collect clinical, environmental, and cognitive data along with multimodal biomarkers, including neuroimaging, electrophysiology, fluid biospecimens, speech and facial expression samples, novel measures derived from digital health technologies including smartphone-based daily surveys, and passive sensing as well as actigraphy. The study will investigate a range of clinical outcomes over a 2-year period, including transition to psychosis, remission or persistence of CHR status, attenuated positive symptoms, persistent negative symptoms, mood and anxiety symptoms, and psychosocial functioning. The global reach of AMP SCZ and its harmonized innovative methods promise to catalyze the development of new treatments to address critical unmet clinical and public health needs in CHR individuals.

The hierarchical taxonomy of psychopathology in clinical high risk for psychosis: Validation and extension.

The Hierarchical Taxonomy of Psychopathology (HiTOP) consortium's transdiagnostic dimensional model of psychopathology has considerable support; however, this model has been underresearched in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P), a population that may advance the model. CHR-P individuals not only have attenuated psychotic symptoms that vary in severity, but also have many comorbid diagnoses and varied clinical outcomes, including disorders with uncertain relations to HiTOP (e.g., obsessive-compulsive disorder). The present study used self-report and interview data from North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study-3 (710 CHR, 96 controls) to replicate the HiTOP model and test specific hypotheses regarding disorders with uncertain relations to its dimensions. Additionally, the present study examined the HiTOP model in relation to childhood trauma, declines in social functioning, and development of full psychosis. Confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the HiTOP model's fit was nearly adequate (e.g., comparative fit index = .89), though several theory-relevant modifications were indicated. Additionally, specific tests were conducted to gain a more fine-grained perspective on how disorders with less clear prior evidence were related to the HiTOP model. Notable findings from these analyses include bipolar spectrum disorders relating to the psychosis super spectrum (i.e., .39 loading), and obsessive-compulsive disorder showing a complex pattern of loadings (e.g., internalizing and psychosis). The final model parsimoniously accounted for childhood trauma (e.g., super spectra rs = .22-.32), associations with current functioning, and predicted future conversion to a psychotic disorder (e.g., super spectra R² = .13). Overall, these results inform the HiTOP model and suggest its promise for CHR-P research. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Plasma complement and coagulation proteins as prognostic factors of negative symptoms: An analysis of the NAPLS 2 and 3 studies.

INTRODUCTION: Negative symptoms impact the quality of life of individuals with psychosis and current treatment options for negative symptoms have limited effectiveness. Previous studies have demonstrated that complement and coagulation pathway protein levels are related to later psychotic experiences, psychotic disorder, and functioning. However, the prognostic relationship between complement and coagulation proteins and negative symptoms is poorly characterised. METHODS: In the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Studies 2 and 3, negative symptoms in 431 individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (mean age: 18.2, SD 3.6; 42.5 % female) were measured at multiple visits over 2 years using the Scale of Psychosis-Risk Symptoms. Plasma proteins were quantified at baseline using mass spectrometry. Four factors were derived to represent levels of proteins involved in the activation or regulation of the complement or coagulation systems. The relationships between standardised protein group factors and serial measurements of negative symptoms over time were modelled using generalised least squares regression. Analyses were adjusted for baseline candidate prognostic factors: negative symptoms, positive symptoms, functioning, depressive symptoms, suicidal ideation, cannabis use, tobacco use, antipsychotic use, antidepressant use, age, and sex. RESULTS: Clinical and demographic prognostic factors of follow-up negative symptoms included negative, positive, and depressive symptoms, functioning, and age. Adjusting for all candidate prognostic factors, the complement regulators group and the coagulation regulators group were identified as prognostic factors of follow-up negative symptoms (ß: 0.501, 95 % CI: 0.160, 0.842; ß: 0.430, 95 % CI: 0.080, 0.780 respectively. The relationship between complement regulator levels and negative symptoms was also observed in NAPLS2 alone (ß: 0.501, 95 % CI: -0.037, 1.039) and NAPLS3 alone, additionally adjusting for BMI (ß: 0.442, 95 % CI: 0.127, 0.757). CONCLUSION: The results indicate that plasma complement and coagulation regulator levels are prognostic factors of negative symptoms, independent of clinical and demographic prognostic factors. These results suggest complement and coagulation regulator levels could have potential utility in informing treatment decisions for negative symptoms in individuals at risk.

Proteomic Biomarkers for the Prediction of Transition to Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk: A Multi-cohort Model Development Study.

Psychosis risk prediction is one of the leading challenges in psychiatry. Previous investigations have suggested that plasma proteomic data may be useful in accurately predicting transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR). We hypothesized that an a priori-specified proteomic prediction model would have strong predictive accuracy for psychosis risk and aimed to replicate longitudinal associations between plasma proteins and transition to psychosis. This study used plasma samples from participants in 3 CHR cohorts: the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Studies 2 and 3, and the NEURAPRO randomized control trial (total n = 754). Plasma proteomic data were quantified using mass spectrometry. The primary outcome was transition to psychosis over the study follow-up period. Logistic regression models were internally validated, and optimism-corrected performance metrics derived with a bootstrap procedure. In the overall sample of CHR participants (age: 18.5, SD: 3.9; 51.9% male), 20.4% (n = 154) developed psychosis within 4.4 years. The a priori-specified model showed poor risk-prediction accuracy for the development of psychosis (C-statistic: 0.51 [95% CI: 0.50, 0.59], calibration slope: 0.45). At a group level, Complement C8B, C4B, C5, and leucine-rich α-2 glycoprotein 1 (LRG1) were associated with transition to psychosis but did not surpass correction for multiple comparisons. This study did not confirm the findings from a previous proteomic prediction model of transition from CHR to psychosis. Certain complement proteins may be weakly associated with transition at a group level. Previous findings, derived from small samples, should be interpreted with caution.

Development of the PSYCHS: Positive SYmptoms and Diagnostic Criteria for the CAARMS Harmonized with the SIPS.

AIM: To harmonize two ascertainment and severity rating instruments commonly used for the clinical high risk syndrome for psychosis (CHR-P): the Structured Interview for Psychosis-risk Syndromes (SIPS) and the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States (CAARMS). METHODS: The initial workshop is described in the companion report from Addington et al. After the workshop, lead experts for each instrument continued harmonizing attenuated positive symptoms and criteria for psychosis and CHR-P through an intensive series of joint videoconferences. RESULTS: Full harmonization was achieved for attenuated positive symptom ratings and psychosis criteria, and modest harmonization for CHR-P criteria. The semi-structured interview, named Positive SYmptoms and Diagnostic Criteria for the CAARMS Harmonized with the SIPS (PSYCHS), generates CHR-P criteria and severity scores for both CAARMS and SIPS. CONCLUSIONS: Using the PSYCHS for CHR-P ascertainment, conversion determination, and attenuated positive symptom severity rating will help in comparing findings across studies and in meta-analyses.

Improving prediction of psychosis in youth at clinical high-risk: pre-baseline symptom duration and cortical thinning as moderators of the NAPLS2 risk calculator.

BACKGROUND: Clinical implementation of risk calculator models in the clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) population has been hindered by heterogeneous risk distributions across study cohorts which could be attributed to pre-ascertainment illness progression. To examine this, we tested whether the duration of attenuated psychotic symptom (APS) worsening prior to baseline moderated performance of the North American prodrome longitudinal study 2 (NAPLS2) risk calculator. We also examined whether rates of cortical thinning, another marker of illness progression, bolstered clinical prediction models. METHODS: Participants from both the NAPLS2 and NAPLS3 samples were classified as either 'long' or 'short' symptom duration based on time since APS increase prior to baseline. The NAPLS2 risk calculator model was applied to each of these groups. In a subset of NAPLS3 participants who completed follow-up magnetic resonance imaging scans, change in cortical thickness was combined with the individual risk score to predict conversion to psychosis. RESULTS: The risk calculator models achieved similar performance across the combined NAPLS2/NAPLS3 sample [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.69], the long duration group (AUC = 0.71), and the short duration group (AUC = 0.71). The shorter duration group was younger and had higher baseline APS than the longer duration group. The addition of cortical thinning improved the prediction of conversion significantly for the short duration group (AUC = 0.84), with a moderate improvement in prediction for the longer duration group (AUC = 0.78). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that early illness progression differs among CHR-P patients, is detectable with both clinical and neuroimaging measures, and could play an essential role in the prediction of clinical outcomes.

Relations of Lifetime Perceived Stress and Basal Cortisol With Hippocampal Volume Among Healthy Adolescents and Those at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach.

BACKGROUND: Hippocampal volume (HV) is sensitive to environmental influences. Under normative conditions in humans, HV increases linearly into childhood and asymptotes in early adulthood. Studies of humans and nonhuman animals have provided evidence of inverse relationships between several measures of stress and HV. METHODS: Using structural equation modeling, this study aimed to characterize the relationships of age, basal cortisol, biological sex, and lifetime perceived stress with bilateral HV in a sample of healthy adolescents and adolescents at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) (N = 571, 43% female; age range = 12-19.9 years). This sample included 469 individuals at CHR-P and 102 healthy comparison participants from the combined baseline cohorts of the second and third NAPLS (North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study). RESULTS: A structural model that constrained the individual effects of basal cortisol and perceived stress to single path coefficients, and freely estimated the effects of age and biological sex in group models, optimized model fit and parsimony relative to other candidate models. Significant inverse relationships between basal cortisol and bilateral HV were observed in adolescents at CHR-P and healthy comparison participants. Significant sex differences in bilateral HV were also observed, with females demonstrating smaller HV than males in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Multigroup structural equation modeling revealed heterogeneity in the relationships of age and biological sex with basal cortisol, lifetime perceived stress, and bilateral HV in individuals at CHR-P and healthy comparison participants. Moreover, the findings support previous literature indicating that elevated basal cortisol is a nonspecific risk factor for reduced HV.

Hippocampal Connectivity with the Default Mode Network is Linked to Hippocampal Volume in the Clinical High Risk for Psychosis Syndrome and Healthy Individuals.

Reduced hippocampal volume (HV) is an established brain morphological feature of psychiatric conditions. HV is associated with brain connectivity in humans and non-human animals and altered connectivity is associated with risk for psychiatric illness. Associations between HV and connectivity remain poorly characterized in humans, and especially in phases of psychiatric illness that precede disease onset. This study examined associations between HV and hippocampal functional connectivity (FC) during rest in 141 healthy controls and 248 individuals at-risk for psychosis. Significant inverse associations between HV and hippocampal FC with the inferior parietal lobe (IPL) and thalamus were observed. Select associations between hippocampal FC and HV were moderated by diagnostic group. Significant moderation results shifted from implicating the IPL to the temporal pole after excluding participants on antipsychotic medication. Considered together, this work implicates hippocampal FC with the temporoparietal junction, within a specialized subsystem of the default mode network, as sensitive to HV.

Recreational cannabis use over time in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis: Lack of associations with symptom, neurocognitive, functioning, and treatment patterns.

Recreational cannabis use has recently gained considerable interest as an environmental risk factor that triggers the onset of psychosis. To date, however, the evidence that cannabis is associated with negative outcomes in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis is inconsistent. The present study tracked cannabis usage over a 2-year period and examined its associations with clinical and neurocognitive outcomes, along with medication rates. CHR youth who continuously used cannabis had higher neurocognition and social functioning over time, and decreased medication usage, relative to non-users. Surprisingly, clinical symptoms improved over time despite the medication decreases.

Cognitive-Behavioral Social Skills Training: Outcome of a Randomized Controlled Trial for Youth at Risk of Psychosis.

Aim: Difficulties in social functioning have been observed in youth at clinical high-risk (CHR) of psychosis even in those who do not go on to develop a psychotic illness. Few treatment studies have attempted to improve social functioning in this population. The aim of this study was to conduct a randomized trial comparing the effects of Cognitive-Behavioral Social Skills Training (CBSST) with a supportive therapy (ST). Methods: Both CBSST and ST were weekly group therapies, delivered over 18 weeks. This was a 2-arm trial with single-blinded ratings and intention-to-treat analyses. Assessments occurred at baseline, end-of-treatment, and 12 months after the baseline assessment. The primary outcome was social and role functioning and defeatist performance attitudes were the secondary outcome. Attenuated positive and negative symptoms, anxiety, depression, self-efficacy, and beliefs about self and others were examined as exploratory outcomes. Results: There were no significant differences between the 2 groups at baseline or either of the 2 follow-ups. However, at follow-ups, in each group there were significant improvements in clinical symptoms. These could not be attributed to group treatment since there was no control or wait-list group. Conclusions: Since poor social functioning is one of the most observed difficulties in CHR individuals, and a decline in social functioning may be a significant predictor of later transition to psychosis, future work will be needed to find effective treatments for this decline in functioning for CHR youth.

Association of Childhood Area-Level Ethnic Density and Psychosis Risk Among Ethnoracial Minoritized Individuals in the US.

Importance: The protective ethnic density effect hypothesis, which suggests that minoritized individuals who grow up in neighborhoods with a high proportion of ethnoracial minoritized groups are protected from the effects of perceived discrimination, has not been examined among individuals at clinical high risk of psychosis (CHR-P). This level of examination may help identify intervention targets for preventing psychosis among high-risk individuals. Objective: To examine the association between area-level ethnic density during childhood, perceived discrimination, and psychosis risk outcomes among ethnoracial minoritized individuals with CHR-P. Design, Setting, and Participants: Data were collected as part of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study-2 (NAPLS 2) between November 2008 and March 2013. Participants included ethnoracial minoritized youth with CHR-P. Area-level ethnoracial minoritized density pertained to the percent of ethnoracial minoritized individuals within the participant's county during childhood. Generalized mixed-effects models with random intercepts for participants, NAPLS 2 site, and county estimated the associations between area-level ethnic density and the risk of psychosis risk outcomes. Self-reported experience of discrimination was assessed. Mediation analyses computed the indirect association of perceived discrimination in the prospective correlation between ethnic density and psychosis risk outcomes. Analyses took place between December 2021 and June 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Psychosis risk outcomes included remission, symptomatic, progression, and conversion to psychosis and were assessed throughout 24-month follow-up. Results: Of 193 individuals, the mean (SD) age was 17.5 (3.4) years and 113 males (58.5%) were included. Participants self-identified as Asian (29 [15.0%]), Black (57 [29.0%]), Hispanic (any race; 87 [45.0%]), or other (First Nations, Middle Eastern, and interracial individuals; 20 [10.4%]). Greater area-level minoritized density was associated with a lower likelihood of remaining symptomatic (relative risk [RR], 0.54 [95% CI, 0.33-0.89]) and having progressively worsening symptoms (RR, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.32-0.86]) compared with being in remission. More perceived discrimination was associated with a higher risk of staying symptomatic (RR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.09-1.88]) and progressively worsening (RR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.02-1.78]) compared with being in remission. Perceived discrimination significantly mediated 21.7% (95% CI, 4.1%-67.0%; P = .02) of the association between area-level minoritized density and the likelihood of being in remission. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that among ethnoracial minority youth with CHR-P, growing up in communities with a greater proportion of ethnically minoritized individuals was associated with remission of psychosis risk symptoms partly through lower levels of perceived discrimination. Understanding how the social environment impacts early psychosis risk may help develop effective interventions to prevent psychosis, especially for vulnerable minoritized youth.

Dynamic Prediction of Outcomes for Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: A Joint Modeling Approach.

Importance: Leveraging the dynamic nature of clinical variables in the clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) population has the potential to significantly improve the performance of outcome prediction models. Objective: To improve performance of prediction models and elucidate dynamic clinical profiles using joint modeling to predict conversion to psychosis and symptom remission. Design, Setting, and Participants: Data were collected as part of the third wave of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS 3), which is a 9-site prospective longitudinal study. Participants were individuals aged 12 to 30 years who met criteria for a psychosis-risk syndrome. Clinical, neurocognitive, and demographic variables were collected at baseline and at multiple follow-up visits, beginning at 2 months and up to 24 months. An initial feature selection process identified longitudinal clinical variables that showed differential change for each outcome group across 2 months. With these variables, a joint modeling framework was used to estimate the likelihood of eventual outcomes. Models were developed and tested in a 10-fold cross-validation framework. Clinical data were collected between February 2015 and November 2018, and data were analyzed from February 2022 to December 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prediction models were built to predict conversion to psychosis and symptom remission. Participants met criteria for conversion if their positive symptoms reached the fully psychotic range and for symptom remission if they were subprodromal on the Scale of Psychosis-Risk Symptoms for a duration of 6 months or more. Results: Of 488 included NAPLS 3 participants, 232 (47.5%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 18.2 (3.4) years. Joint models achieved a high level of accuracy in predicting conversion (balanced accuracy [BAC], 0.91) and remission (BAC, 0.99) compared with baseline models (conversion: BAC, 0.65; remission: BAC, 0.60). Clinical variables that showed differential change between outcome groups across a 2-month span, including measures of symptom severity and aspects of functioning, were also identified. Further, intra-individual risks for each outcome were more negatively correlated when using joint models (r = -0.92; P < .001) compared with baseline models (r = -0.50; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, joint models significantly outperformed baseline models in predicting both conversion and remission, demonstrating that monitoring short-term clinical change may help to parse heterogeneous dynamic clinical trajectories in a CHR-P population. These findings could inform additional study of targeted treatment selection and could move the field closer to clinical implementation of prediction models.