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2.
World J Surg ; 2024 Aug 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39129054

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Indicators of surgical outcomes are designed to objectively evaluate surgical performance, enabling comparisons among surgeons and institutions. In recent years, there has been a surge in complex indicators of perioperative short-term and long-term outcomes. The aim of this narrative review is to provide an overview and a critical analysis of surgical outcomes indicators, with a special emphasis on hepato-pancreato-biliary (HPB) surgery. METHODS: A narrative review of outcome measures was conducted using a combined text and MeSH search strategy to identify relevant articles focused on perioperative outcomes, specifically within HPB surgery. RESULTS: The literature search yielded 624 records, and 94 studies were included in the analysis. Included papers were classified depending on whether they assessed intraoperative or postoperative specific or composite outcomes, and whether they assessed purely clinical or combined clinical and socio-economic indicators. Specific indicators included in composite outcomes were categorized into three main domains: intraoperative metrics, postoperative outcomes, and oncological outcomes. While postoperative mortality, complications, hospital stay and readmission were the indicators most frequently included in composite outcomes, oncological outcomes were rarely considered. CONCLUSIONS: The evolution of surgical outcomes has shifted from the simplistic assessment of crude mortality rates to complex composite outcomes. Whether the recent explosion of publications on these topics has a clinical impact in real life is questionable. Outcomes from the patient perspective, integrating social and financial indicators, are not yet integrated into most of these composite analytical tools but should not be underestimated.

5.
Langenbecks Arch Surg ; 409(1): 211, 2024 Jul 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38985363

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Whether hospital volume affects outcome of patients undergoing hepatobiliary surgery, and whether the centralization of such procedures is justified remains to be investigated. The aim of this study was to analyze the outcome of liver surgery in Italy in relationship of hospital volume. METHODS: This is a nationwide retrospective observational study conducted on data collected by the National Italian Registry "Piano Nazionale Esiti" (PNE) 2023 that included all liver procedures performed in 2022. Outcome measure were case volume and 30-day mortality. Hospitals were classified as very high-volume (H-Vol), intermediate-volume (I-Vol), low-volume (L-Vol) and very low-volume (VL-VoL). A review on centralization process and outcome measures was added. RESULTS: 6,126 liver resections for liver tumors were performed in 327 hospitals in 2022. The 30-day mortality was 2.2%. There were 14 H-Vol, 19 I-Vol, 31 L-Vol and 263 VL-Vol hospitals with 30-day mortality of 1.7%, 2.2%, 2.6% and 3.6% respectively (P < 0.001); 220 centers (83%) performed less than 10 resections, and 78 (29%) centers only 1 resection in 2022. By considering the geographical macro-areas, the median count of liver resection performed in northern Italy exceeded those in central and southern Italy (57% vs. 23% vs. 20%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: High-volume has been confirmed to be associated to better outcome after hepatobiliary surgical procedures. Further studies are required to detail the factors associated with mortality. The centralization process should be redesigned and oversight.


Subject(s)
Hepatectomy , Hospitals, High-Volume , Hospitals, Low-Volume , Liver Neoplasms , Humans , Hepatectomy/mortality , Italy , Retrospective Studies , Male , Female , Liver Neoplasms/surgery , Liver Neoplasms/mortality , Hospitals, High-Volume/statistics & numerical data , Aged , Middle Aged , Hospitals, Low-Volume/statistics & numerical data , Registries , Hospital Mortality , Treatment Outcome
6.
Int J Surg ; 2024 Jul 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38967502

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Systemic inflammation is relevant in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA), but controversial results exist on the prognostic role of inflammatory indexes and their correlation with tumor microenvironment (TME). We aimed to explore the biological and prognostic values of these indexes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort study involving iCCA patients who underwent hepatic resection between 2010-2021 was conducted. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), and clinic-pathological factors were recorded. Immune-cell subpopulations, isolated from surgical specimens, were analyzed by flow cytometry. NLR and LMR cut-offs were calculated by X-Tile software. Linear regression, Kaplan-Meier, and Cox regression analyses were conducted. RESULTS: A total of 101 iCCA patients were considered. NLR ≥3.83 and LMR <2.28 correlated with worse survival. Patients were divided into groups: 67 (66.3%) in the low-risk and 34 (33.7%) in the high-risk (having at least one worse prognostic ratio). The 5-year overall survival was 49.8% and 18.9% for low- and high-risk groups, respectively (P=0.003). An elevated CA19.9 in the high-risk group gives 2.148 HR (95%CI:1.060-4.349) of mortality and 2.182 HR (95%CI:1.206-3.948) of disease recurrence. Flow cytometry analysis of 20 surgical specimens highlighted that NLR was associated with tumor-derived NLR (P=0.026) and LMR with tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (P=0.002). In a subset of five high-risk vs five low-risk patients, T-cell evaluation showed a higher prevalence of CD4+ compared to CD8+ cells in the high-risk group (78.5% vs. 21.5%, P<0.0001). Conversely, low-risk patients demonstrated a noteworthy infiltration of CD8+ cells compared to the high-risk group (21.5% vs. 48.7%, P=0.037). CONCLUSIONS: The combination of blood inflammatory indexes determined two survival-risk profiles. The correlation between the blood scores and the iCCA microenvironment suggests a link between immune-cell infiltration and the risk group. These findings open the possibility of patient stratification with the chance to identify subgroups suitable for dedicated follow-up and targeted immuno-chemotherapy protocols.

7.
J Gastrointest Oncol ; 15(3): 1020-1034, 2024 Jun 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38989417

ABSTRACT

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common cancers. Cellular senescence plays a vital role in carcinogenesis by activating many pathways. In this study, we aimed to identify biomarkers for predicting the survival and recurrence of CRC through cellular senescence-related genes. Methods: Utilizing The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) databases, RNA-sequencing data and clinical information for CRC were collected. A risk model for predicting overall survival was established based on five differentially expressed genes using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator-Cox regression (LASSO-Cox regression), receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and Kaplan-Meier analyses. The study also delved into both the tumor microenvironment and the response to immunotherapy. Moreover, we gathered clinical sample data from our center in order to confirm the findings of public database analysis. Results: Through ROC and Kaplan-Meier analyses, a risk model was developed using five cellular senescence-related genes [i.e., CDKN2A, SERPINE1, SNAI1, CXCL1, and ETS2] to categorize patients into high- and low-risk groups. In the TCGA-colon adenocarcinoma (COAD) and GEO-COAD cohorts, the high-risk group was associated with a bleaker forecast (P<0.05), immune cell inactivation, and insensitivity to immunotherapy in IMvigor210 database (http://research-pub.gene.com/IMvigor210CoreBiologies/). Clinical samples were then used to confirm that ETS2 and CDKN2A could serve as independent prognostic biomarkers in CRC. Conclusions: Gene signatures related to cellular senescence, specifically involving CDKN2A and ETS2, are emerging as promising biomarkers for predicting CRC prognosis and guiding immunotherapy.

8.
Ann Surg Oncol ; 31(10): 6495-6503, 2024 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38896226

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) is a complex procedure with a high risk of postoperative mortality and early disease recurrence. The objective of this study was to compare patient characteristics and overall survival (OS) between pCCA patients who underwent an R1 resection and patients with localized pCCA who received palliative systemic chemotherapy. METHODS: Patients with a diagnosis of pCCA between 1997-2021 were identified from the European Network for the Study of Cholangiocarcinoma (ENS-CCA) registry. pCCA patients who underwent an R1 resection were compared with patients with localized pCCA (i.e., nonmetastatic) who were ineligible for surgical resection and received palliative systemic chemotherapy. The primary outcome was OS. RESULTS: Overall, 146 patients in the R1 resection group and 92 patients in the palliative chemotherapy group were included. The palliative chemotherapy group more often underwent biliary drainage (95% vs. 66%, p < 0.001) and had more vascular encasement on imaging (70% vs. 49%, p = 0.012) and CA 19.9 was more frequently >200 IU/L (64 vs. 45%, p = 0.046). Median OS was comparable between both groups (17.1 vs. 16 months, p = 0.06). Overall survival at 5 years after diagnosis was 20.0% with R1 resection and 2.2% with chemotherapy. Type of treatment (i.e., R1 resection or palliative chemotherapy) was not an independent predictor of OS (hazard ratio 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.55-1.07). CONCLUSIONS: Palliative systemic chemotherapy should be considered instead of resection in patients with a high risk of both R1 resection and postoperative mortality.


Subject(s)
Bile Duct Neoplasms , Klatskin Tumor , Palliative Care , Humans , Male , Female , Klatskin Tumor/mortality , Klatskin Tumor/surgery , Klatskin Tumor/pathology , Klatskin Tumor/drug therapy , Bile Duct Neoplasms/pathology , Bile Duct Neoplasms/mortality , Bile Duct Neoplasms/surgery , Bile Duct Neoplasms/drug therapy , Palliative Care/methods , Survival Rate , Aged , Middle Aged , Follow-Up Studies , Prognosis , Hepatectomy/mortality , Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/therapeutic use , Retrospective Studies
9.
HPB (Oxford) ; 26(8): 1022-1032, 2024 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38796347

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: There is lack of data on the association between socioeconomic factors, guidelines compliance and clinical outcomes among patients with acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP). METHODS: Post-hoc analysis of the international MANCTRA-1 registry evaluating the impact of regional disparities as indicated by the Human Development Index (HDI), and guideline compliance on ABP clinical outcomes. Multivariable logistic regression models were employed to identify prognostic factors associated with mortality and readmission. RESULTS: Among 5313 individuals from 151 centres across 42 countries marked disparities in comorbid conditions, ABP severity, and medical procedure usage were observed. Patients from lower HDI countries had higher guideline non-compliance (p < 0.001) and mortality (5.0% vs. 3.2%, p = 0.019) in comparison with very high HDI countries. On adjusted analysis, ASA score (OR 1.810, p = 0.037), severe ABP (OR 2.735, p < 0.001), infected necrosis (OR 2.225, p = 0.006), organ failure (OR 4.511, p = 0.001) and guideline non-compliance (OR 2.554, p = 0.002 and OR 2.178, p = 0.015) were associated with increased mortality. HDI was a critical socio-economic factor affecting both mortality (OR 2.452, p = 0.007) and readmission (OR 1.542, p = 0.046). CONCLUSION: These data highlight the importance of collaborative research to characterise challenges and disparities in global ABP management. Less developed regions with lower HDI scores showed lower adherence to clinical guidelines and higher rates of mortality and recurrence.


Subject(s)
Guideline Adherence , Healthcare Disparities , Pancreatitis , Registries , Humans , Male , Female , Middle Aged , Pancreatitis/mortality , Pancreatitis/therapy , Healthcare Disparities/standards , Practice Guidelines as Topic , Adult , Aged , Risk Factors , Acute Disease , Patient Readmission , Socioeconomic Factors , Treatment Outcome , Severity of Illness Index
10.
Eur J Surg Oncol ; : 108274, 2024 Mar 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38538504

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Microvascular invasion (MVI) is the main risk factor for overall mortality and recurrence after surgery for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).The aim was to train machine-learning models to predict MVI on preoperative CT scan. METHODS: 3-phases CT scans were retrospectively collected among 4 Italian centers. DICOM files were manually segmented to detect the liver and the tumor(s). Radiomics features were extracted from the tumoral, peritumoral and healthy liver areas in each phase. Principal component analysis (PCA) was performed to reduce the dimensions of the dataset. Data were divided between training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Random-Forest (RF), fully connected MLP Artificial neural network (neuralnet) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) models were fitted to predict MVI. Prediction accuracy was estimated in the test set. RESULTS: Between 2008 and 2022, 218 preoperative CT scans were collected. At the histological specimen, 72(33.02%) patients had MVI. First and second order radiomics features were extracted, obtaining 672 variables. PCA selected 58 dimensions explaining >95% of the variance.In the test set, the XGB model obtained Accuracy = 68.7% (Sens: 38.1%, Spec: 83.7%, PPV: 53.3% and NPV: 73.4%). The neuralnet showed an Accuracy = 50% (Sens: 52.3%, Spec: 48.8%, PPV: 33.3%, NPV: 67.7%). RF was the best performer (Acc = 96.8%, 95%CI: 0.91-0.99, Sens: 95.2%, Spec: 97.6%, PPV: 95.2% and NPV: 97.6%). CONCLUSION: Our model allowed a high prediction accuracy of the presence of MVI at the time of HCC diagnosis. This could lead to change the treatment allocation, the surgical extension and the follow-up strategy for those patients.

11.
Cancer Immunol Immunother ; 73(4): 63, 2024 Mar 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38430255

ABSTRACT

Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) are key components of the tumor microenvironment (TME). In colorectal liver metastasis (CLM), TAM morphology correlates with prognosis, with smaller TAMs (S-TAMs) conferring a more favorable prognosis than larger TAMs (L-TAMs). However, the metabolic profile of in vivo human TAM populations remains unknown. Multiparametric flow cytometry was used to freshly isolate S- and L-TAMs from surgically resected CLM patients (n = 14S-, 14L-TAMs). Mass spectrometry-based metabolomics analyses were implemented for the metabolic characterization of TAM populations. Gene expression analysis and protein activity were used to support the biochemical effects of the enzyme-substrate link between riboflavin and (lysine-specific demethylase 1A, LSD1) with TAM morphologies. L-TAMs were characterized by a positive correlation and a strong association between riboflavin and TAM morphologies. Riboflavin in both L-TAMs and in-vitro M2 polarized macrophages modulates LSD1 protein expression and activity. The inflammatory stimuli promoted by TNFα induced the increased expression of riboflavin transporter SLC52A3 and LSD1 in M2 macrophages. The modulation of the riboflavin-LSD1 axis represents a potential target for reprogramming TAM subtypes, paving the way for promising anti-tumor therapeutic strategies.


Subject(s)
Colorectal Neoplasms , Liver Neoplasms , Humans , Tumor-Associated Macrophages/metabolism , Macrophages/metabolism , Liver Neoplasms/pathology , Prognosis , Colorectal Neoplasms/pathology , Tumor Microenvironment , Membrane Transport Proteins/metabolism
12.
Ann Surg Oncol ; 31(6): 3995-4004, 2024 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38520580

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Preoperative nutritional status and body structure affect short-term prognosis in patients undergoing major oncologic surgery. Bioimpedance vectorial analysis (BIVA) is a reliable tool to assess body composition. Low BIVA-derived phase angle (PA) indicates a decline of cell membrane integrity and function. The aim was to study the association between perioperative PA variations and postoperative morbidity following major oncologic upper-GI surgery. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between 2019 and 2022 we prospectively performed BIVA in patients undergoing surgical resection for pancreatic, hepatic, and gastric malignancies on the day before surgery and on postoperative day (POD) 1. Malnutrition was defined as per the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition criteria. The PA variation (ΔPA) between POD1 and preoperatively was considered as a marker for morbidity. Uni and multivariable logistic regression models were applied. RESULTS: Overall, 542 patients with a mean age of 64.6 years were analyzed, 279 (51.5%) underwent pancreatic, 201 (37.1%) underwent hepatobiliary, and 62 (11.4%) underwent gastric resections. The prevalence of preoperative malnutrition was 16.6%. The overall morbidity rate was 53.3%, 59% in those with ΔPA < -0.5 versus 46% when ΔPA ≥ -0.5. Age [odds ratio (OR) 1.11; 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.00; 1.22)], pancreatic resections [OR 2.27; 95% CI (1.24; 4.18)], estimated blood loss (OR 1.20; 95% CI (1.03; 1.39)], malnutrition [OR 1.77; 95% CI (1.27; 2.45)], and ΔPA [OR 1.59; 95% CI (1.54; 1.65)] were independently associated with postoperative complications in the multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with preoperative malnutrition were significantly more likely to develop postoperative morbidity. Moreover, a decrease in PA on POD1 was independently associated with a 13% increase in the absolute risk of complications. Whether proactive interventions may reduce the downward shift of PA and the complication rate need further investigation.


Subject(s)
Body Composition , Malnutrition , Nutrition Assessment , Nutritional Status , Pancreatic Neoplasms , Postoperative Complications , Humans , Female , Male , Middle Aged , Prospective Studies , Postoperative Complications/epidemiology , Prognosis , Aged , Pancreatic Neoplasms/surgery , Pancreatic Neoplasms/pathology , Malnutrition/epidemiology , Malnutrition/etiology , Follow-Up Studies , Enhanced Recovery After Surgery , Liver Neoplasms/surgery , Morbidity , Electric Impedance , Stomach Neoplasms/surgery , Stomach Neoplasms/pathology
13.
Liver Int ; 44(2): 518-531, 2024 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38010911

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) is a primary liver tumour, characterized by poor prognosis and lack of effective therapy. The cytoskeleton protein Filamin A (FLNA) is involved in cancer progression and metastasis, including primary liver cancer. FLNA is cleaved by calpain, producing a 90 kDa fragment (FLNACT ) that can translocate to the nucleus and inhibit gene transcription. We herein aim to define the role of FLNA and its cleavage in iCCA carcinogenesis. METHODS & RESULTS: We evaluated the expression and localization of FLNA and FLNACT in liver samples from iCCA patients (n = 82) revealing that FLNA expression was independently correlated with disease-free survival. Primary tumour cells isolated from resected iCCA patients expressed both FLNA and FLNACT , and bulk RNA sequencing revealed a significant enrichment of cell proliferation and cell motility pathways in iCCAs with high FLNA expression. Further, we defined the impact of FLNA and FLNACT on the proliferation and migration of primary iCCA cells (n = 3) and HuCCT1 cell line using silencing and Calpeptin, a calpain inhibitor. We observed that FLNA silencing decreased cell proliferation and migration and Calpeptin was able to reduce FLNACT expression in both the HuCCT1 and iCCA cells (p < .05 vs. control). Moreover, Calpeptin 100 µM decreased HuCCT1 and primary iCCA cell proliferation (p <.00001 vs. control) and migration (p < .05 vs. control). CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate that FLNA is involved in human iCCA progression and calpeptin strongly decreased FLNACT expression, reducing cell proliferation and migration.


Subject(s)
Bile Duct Neoplasms , Cholangiocarcinoma , Liver Neoplasms , Humans , Filamins/genetics , Cholangiocarcinoma/pathology , Liver Neoplasms/genetics , Bile Duct Neoplasms/genetics , Bile Duct Neoplasms/pathology , Bile Ducts, Intrahepatic/pathology
14.
JHEP Rep ; 6(1): 100910, 2024 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38074504

ABSTRACT

Background & Aims: Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a primary liver tumour characterised by a poor prognosis and limited therapeutic options. Available 3D human CCA models fail to faithfully recapitulate the tumour niche. We aimed to develop an innovative patient-specific CCA-on-chip platform. Methods: A CCA tumour microenvironment was recapitulated on a microfluidic three-channel chip using primary CCA cells, cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs), endothelial cells, and T cells isolated from CCA specimens (n = 6). CAF and CCA cells were co-cultured in the central channel, flanked by endothelial cells in one lateral channel, recreating a tubular structure. An extensive characterisation of this platform was carried out to investigate its diffusion ability, hydrogel properties, and changes in matrix composition. Cell phenotype and functional properties were assessed. Results: Primary cells seeded on the microfluidic device were shown to reproduce the architectural structure and maintain the original phenotype and functional properties. The tumour niche underwent a deep remodelling in the 3D device, with an increase in hydrogel stiffness and extracellular matrix deposition, mimicking in vivo CCA characteristics. T cells were incorporated into the device to assess its reliability for immune cell interaction studies. Higher T cell migration was observed using cells from patients with highly infiltrated tumours. Finally, the drug trial showed the ability of the device to recapitulate different drug responses based on patient characteristics. Conclusions: We presented a 3D CCA platform that integrates the major non-immune components of the tumour microenvironment and the T cell infiltrate, reflecting the CCA niche. This CCA-on-chip represents a reliable patient-specific 3D platform that will be of help to further elucidate the biological mechanisms involved in CCA and provide an efficient tool for personalised drug testing. Impact and implications: An innovative patient-specific cholangiocarcinoma (CCA)-on-chip platform was successfully developed, integrating the major components of the tumour microenvironment (tumour cells, cancer-associated fibroblasts, endothelial cells, and immune infiltrate) and faithfully mimicking the CCA niche. This CCA-on-chip represents a powerful tool for unravelling disease-associated cellular mechanisms in CCA and provides an efficient tool for personalised drug testing.

15.
J Hepatocell Carcinoma ; 10: 1955-1971, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37941812

ABSTRACT

Systemic treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been revolutionized over the last few years following the approval of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI). Despite the promising survival extension seen with ICI combination regimens, responses are not universally seen and the optimal partner for programmed cell death 1 pathway inhibitors remains to be identified. Even fewer encouraging results have been demonstrated with ICI used for monotherapy. Several mechanisms of resistance have been described so far, involving characteristics of cancer cells (intrinsic mechanisms) and of the surrounding tumor microenvironment (extrinsic mechanisms). Factors related to therapy may also contribute to the development of resistance. Increasing research efforts are being dedicated to the discovery of novel approaches and targets to overcome resistance, some of which may be introduced into clinic in the future. Herein we describe a selection of resistance mechanisms that have been involved in impairing response to ICI and propose potential therapeutic approaches to overcome resistance.

16.
Diagnostics (Basel) ; 13(17)2023 Aug 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37685264

ABSTRACT

Liver resection is the first curative option for most hepatic primary and secondary malignancies. However, post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) still represents a non-negligible postoperative complication, embodying the most frequent cause of hepatic-related mortality. In the absence of a specific treatment, the most effective way to deal with PHLF is its prevention through a careful preoperative assessment of future liver remnant (FLR) volume and function. Apart from the clinical score and classical criteria to define the safe limit of resectability, new imaging modalities have shown their ability to assist surgeons in planning the best operative strategy with a precise estimation of the FLR amount. New technologies leading to liver and tumor 3D reconstruction may guide the surgeon along the best resection planes combining the least liver parenchymal sacrifice with oncological appropriateness. Integration with imaging modalities, such as hepatobiliary scintigraphy, capable of estimating total and regional liver function, may bring about a decrease in postoperative complications. Magnetic resonance imaging with hepatobiliary contrast seems to be predominant since it simultaneously integrates hepatic function and volume information along with a precise characterization of the target malignancy.

18.
Liver Int ; 43(11): 2538-2547, 2023 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37577984

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Surgical resection (SR) is a potentially curative treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) hampered by high rates of recurrence. New drugs are tested in the adjuvant setting, but standardised risk stratification tools of HCC recurrence are lacking. OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a simple scoring system to predict 2-year recurrence after SR for HCC. METHODS: 2359 treatment-naïve patients who underwent SR for HCC in 17 centres in Europe and Asia between 2004 and 2017 were divided into a development (DS; n = 1558) and validation set (VS; n = 801) by random sampling of participating centres. The Early Recurrence Score (ERS) was generated using variables associated with 2-year recurrence in the DS and validated in the VS. RESULTS: Variables associated with 2-year recurrence in the DS were (with associated points) alpha-fetoprotein (<10 ng/mL:0; 10-100: 2; >100: 3), size of largest nodule (≥40 mm: 1), multifocality (yes: 2), satellite nodules (yes: 2), vascular invasion (yes: 1) and surgical margin (positive R1: 2). The sum of points provided a score ranging from 0 to 11, allowing stratification into four levels of 2-year recurrence risk (Wolbers' C-indices 66.8% DS and 68.4% VS), with excellent calibration according to risk categories. Wolber's and Harrell's C-indices apparent values were systematically higher for ERS when compared to Early Recurrence After Surgery for Liver tumour post-operative model to predict time to early recurrence or recurrence-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: ERS is a user-friendly staging system identifying four levels of early recurrence risk after SR and a robust tool to design personalised surveillance strategies and adjuvant therapy trials.


Subject(s)
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular , Liver Neoplasms , Humans , Liver Neoplasms/pathology , Prognosis , Retrospective Studies , Postoperative Period , Neoplasm Recurrence, Local/pathology , Hepatectomy
20.
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