Bayesian Modeling with Spatial Curvature Processes.

Spatial process models are widely used for modeling point-referenced variables arising from diverse scientific domains. Analyzing the resulting random surface provides deeper insights into the nature of latent dependence within the studied response. We develop Bayesian modeling and inference for rapid changes on the response surface to assess directional curvature along a given trajectory. Such trajectories or curves of rapid change, often referred to as wombling boundaries, occur in geographic space in the form of rivers in a flood plain, roads, mountains or plateaus or other topographic features leading to high gradients on the response surface. We demonstrate fully model based Bayesian inference on directional curvature processes to analyze differential behavior in responses along wombling boundaries. We illustrate our methodology with a number of simulated experiments followed by multiple applications featuring the Boston Housing data; Meuse river data; and temperature data from the Northeastern United States.

Impact of powder-binder interactions on 3D printability of pharmaceutical tablets using drop test methodology.

In this study, a pre-screening test has been developed for the binder-jet 3D printing process (BJ3DP) which has been validated using statistical analysis. The pre-screening test or drop test has been adapted from the wet granulation field and modified later on to be used for tablet manufacturing in BJ3DP. Initially, a total of eight powders and ten water-based binder solutions have been introduced in the preliminary test to understand the powder-binder interactions. Afterward, based on the preliminary test results, three blends were developed which had undergone the same drop test. All these powder and binder combinations were then used for 3D printing. The key parameters such as mechanical strength and shape factors of the drop test agglomerates and 3D printed tablets were then compared using multiple linear regressions. Few dimensionless parameters were introduced in this study such as binding capacity and binding index to capture the printability properties of the powders used in this study. Significant relations (p<0.05) were found between the drop test and the BJ3DP process. Application of drop test was carried out to establish a prescreening test, ii) to develop new blend formulations as well as iii) to develop a fundamental understanding of powder-binder interaction during BJ3DP process.

Predictions, role of interventions and effects of a historic national lockdown in India's response to the COVID-19 pandemic: data science call to arms.

With only 536 cases and 11 fatalities, India took the historic decision of a 21-day national lockdown on March 25. The lockdown was first extended to May 3 soon after the analysis of this paper was completed, and then to May 18 while this paper was being revised. In this paper, we use a Bayesian extension of the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (eSIR) model designed for intervention forecasting to study the short- and long-term impact of an initial 21-day lockdown on the total number of COVID-19 infections in India compared to other less severe non-pharmaceutical interventions. We compare effects of hypothetical durations of lockdown on reducing the number of active and new infections. We find that the lockdown, if implemented correctly, can reduce the total number of cases in the short term, and buy India invaluable time to prepare its healthcare and disease-monitoring system. Our analysis shows we need to have some measures of suppression in place after the lockdown for increased benefit (as measured by reduction in the number of cases). A longer lockdown between 42-56 days is preferable to substantially "flatten the curve" when compared to 21-28 days of lockdown. Our models focus solely on projecting the number of COVID-19 infections and, thus, inform policymakers about one aspect of this multi-faceted decision-making problem. We conclude with a discussion on the pivotal role of increased testing, reliable and transparent data, proper uncertainty quantification, accurate interpretation of forecasting models, reproducible data science methods and tools that can enable data-driven policymaking during a pandemic. Our software products are available at covind19.org.

A Simplex Centroid Design to Quantify Triboelectric Charging in Pharmaceutical Mixtures.

The present study focuses on the implementation of a modified simplex centroid statistical design to predict the triboelectrification phenomenon in pharmaceutical mixtures. Two drugs (Ibuprofen and Theophylline), 2 excipients (lactose monohydrate and microcrystalline cellulose/MCC), and 2 blender wall materials (aluminum and poly-methyl methacrylate) were studied to identify the trends in charge transfer in pharmaceutical blends. The statistical model confirmed the excipient-drug interactions, irrespective of the blender wall materials, as the most significant factor leading to reduced charging. Also, lactose monohydrate was able to explain the charge variability more consistently compared with MCC powders when used as secondary material. The ratio of the individual components in the blends explained almost 80% of the bulk charging for Ibuprofen mixtures and 70% for Theophylline mixtures. The study also explored the potential lack of efficacy of lactose-MCC as a combination in ternary systems when compared with binary mixtures, for impacts on charge variability in pharmaceutical blends.