Trouble on the horizon: anticipating biological invasions through futures thinking.

Anticipating future biosecurity threats to prevent their occurrence is the most cost-effective strategy to manage invasive alien species. Yet, biological invasions are complex, highly uncertain processes. High uncertainty drives decision-making away from strategic preventative measures and towards operational outcomes aimed at post-invasion management. The limited success of preventative measures in curbing biological invasions reflects this short-term mindset and decision-makers should instead apply strategic foresight to imagine futures where biosecurity threats are minimised. Here, four major futures thinking tools (environmental scanning, driver-mapping, horizon scanning, and scenario planning) that describe probable, possible, plausible and preferable futures are assessed in terms of their potential to support both research and policy addressing biological invasions. Environmental scanning involves surveying existing data sources to detect signals of emerging alien species through knowledge of changes in either the likelihood or consequences of biological invasions. Several approaches are widely used for biosecurity including automated scans of digital media, consensus-based expert scoring, and prediction markets. Automated systems can be poor at detecting weak signals because of the large volume of 'noise' they generate while expert scoring relies on prior knowledge and so fails to identify unknown unknowns which is also true of prediction markets that work well for quite specific known risks. Driver-mapping uses expert consensus to identify the political, economic, societal, technological, legislative, and environmental forces shaping the future and is a critical component of strategic foresight that has rarely been applied to biological invasions. Considerable potential exists to extend this approach to develop system maps to identify where biosecurity interventions may be most effective and to explore driver complexes to determine megatrends shaping the future of biological invasions. Horizon scanning is a systematic outlook of potential threats and future developments to detect weak signals of emerging issues that exist at the margins of current thinking. Applications have been strongly focused on emerging issues related to research and technological challenges relevant to biosecurity and invasion science. However, most of these emerging issues are already well known in current-day research. Because horizon scanning is based on expert consensus, it needs to embrace a diversity of cultural, gender, and disciplinary diversity more adequately to ensure participants think intuitively and outside of their own subject boundaries. Scenario planning constructs storylines that describe alternative ways the political, economic, social, technological, legislative, and environmental situation might develop in the future. Biological invasion scenario planning has favoured structured approaches such as standardised archetypes and uncertainty matrices, but scope exists to apply more intuitive thinking by using incasting, backcasting, or causal layered analysis. Futures thinking in biological invasions has not engaged with decision-makers or other stakeholders adequately and thus outcomes have been light on policy and management priorities. To date, strategic foresight addressing biological invasions has applied each approach in isolation. Yet, an integrated approach to futures thinking that involves a diverse set of stakeholders in exploring the probable, possible, plausible, and preferable futures relating to biological invasions is crucial to the delivery of strategic biosecurity foresight at both national and global scales.

Harder, better, faster, stronger? Dispersal in the Anthropocene.

The dispersal of organisms in the Anthropocene has been profoundly altered by human activities, with far-reaching consequences for humans, biodiversity, and ecosystems. Managing such dispersal effectively is critical to achieve the 2030 targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. Here, we bring together insights from invasion science, movement ecology, and conservation biology, and extend a widely used classification framework for the introduction pathways of alien species to encompass other forms of dispersal. We develop a simple, global scheme for classifying the movement of organisms into the types of dispersal that characterise the Anthropocene. The scheme can be used to improve our understanding of dispersal, provide policy relevant advice, inform conservation and biosecurity actions, and enable monitoring and reporting towards conservation targets.

Curbing the major and growing threats from invasive alien species is urgent and achievable.

Although invasive alien species have long been recognized as a major threat to nature and people, until now there has been no comprehensive global review of the status, trends, drivers, impacts, management and governance challenges of biological invasions. The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Thematic Assessment Report on Invasive Alien Species and Their Control (hereafter 'IPBES invasive alien species assessment') drew on more than 13,000 scientific publications and reports in 15 languages as well as Indigenous and local knowledge on all taxa, ecosystems and regions across the globe. Therefore, it provides unequivocal evidence of the major and growing threat of invasive alien species alongside ambitious but realistic approaches to manage biological invasions. The extent of the threat and impacts has been recognized by the 143 member states of IPBES who approved the summary for policymakers of this assessment. Here, the authors of the IPBES assessment outline the main findings of the IPBES invasive alien species assessment and highlight the urgency to act now.

Including a diverse set of voices to address biological invasions.

Inclusivity is fundamental to progress in understanding and addressing the global phenomena of biological invasions because inclusivity fosters a breadth of perspectives, knowledge, and solutions. Here, we report on how the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) assessment on invasive alien species (IAS) prioritized inclusivity, the benefits of this approach, and the remaining challenges.

Citizen science is a vital partnership for invasive alien species management and research.

Invasive alien species (IAS) adversely impact biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and socio-economics. Citizen science can be an effective tool for IAS surveillance, management, and research, providing large datasets over wide spatial extents and long time periods, with public participants generating knowledge that supports action. We demonstrate how citizen science has contributed knowledge across the biological invasion process, especially for early detection and distribution mapping. However, we recommend that citizen science could be used more for assessing impacts and evaluating the success of IAS management. Citizen science does have limitations, and we explore solutions to two key challenges: ensuring data accuracy and dealing with uneven spatial coverage of potential recorders (which limits the dataset's "fit for purpose"). Greater co-development of citizen science with public stakeholders will help us better realize its potential across the biological invasion process and across ecosystems globally while meeting the needs of participants, local communities, scientists, and decision-makers.

High-performing plastic clones best explain the spread of yellow monkeyflower from lowland to higher elevation areas in New Zealand.

The relative contribution of adaptation and phenotypic plasticity can vary between core and edge populations, with implications for invasive success. We investigated the spread of the invasive yellow monkeyflower, Erythranthe gutatta in New Zealand, where it is spreading from lowland agricultural land into high-elevation conservation areas. We investigated the extent of phenotypic variation among clones from across the South Island, looked for adaptation and compared degrees of plasticity among lowland core versus montane range-edge populations. We grew 34 clones and measured their vegetative and floral traits in two common gardens, one in the core range at 9 m a.s.l. and one near the range-edge at 560 m a.s.l. Observed trait variation was explained by a combination of genotypic diversity (as identified through common gardens) and high phenotypic plasticity. We found a subtle signature of local adaptation to lowland habitats but all clones were plastic and able to survive and reproduce in both gardens. In the range-edge garden, above-ground biomass was on average almost double and stolon length almost half that of the same clone in the core garden. Clones from low-elevation sites showed higher plasticity on average than those from higher elevation sites. The highest performing clones in the core garden were also top performers in the range-edge garden. These results suggest some highly fit general-purpose genotypes, possibly pre-adapted to New Zealand montane conditions, best explains the spread of E. gutatta from lowland to higher elevation areas.

Emerging advances in biosecurity to underpin human, animal, plant, and ecosystem health.

One Biosecurity is an interdisciplinary approach to policy and research that builds on the interconnections between human, animal, plant, and ecosystem health to effectively prevent and mitigate the impacts of invasive alien species. To support this approach requires that key cross-sectoral research innovations be identified and prioritized. Following an interdisciplinary horizon scan for emerging research that underpins One Biosecurity, four major interlinked advances were identified: implementation of new surveillance technologies adopting state-of-the-art sensors connected to the Internet of Things, deployable handheld molecular and genomic tracing tools, the incorporation of wellbeing and diverse human values into biosecurity decision-making, and sophisticated socio-environmental models and data capture. The relevance and applicability of these innovations to address threats from pathogens, pests, and weeds in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems emphasize the opportunity to build critical mass around interdisciplinary teams at a global scale that can rapidly advance science solutions targeting biosecurity threats.

Unveiling the hidden economic toll of biological invasions in the European Union.

Background: Biological invasions threaten the functioning of ecosystems, biodiversity, and human well-being by degrading ecosystem services and eliciting massive economic costs. The European Union has historically been a hub for cultural development and global trade, and thus, has extensive opportunities for the introduction and spread of alien species. While reported costs of biological invasions to some member states have been recently assessed, ongoing knowledge gaps in taxonomic and spatio-temporal data suggest that these costs were considerably underestimated. Results: We used the latest available cost data in InvaCost (v4.1)-the most comprehensive database on the costs of biological invasions-to assess the magnitude of this underestimation within the European Union via projections of current and future invasion costs. We used macroeconomic scaling and temporal modelling approaches to project available cost information over gaps in taxa, space, and time, thereby producing a more complete estimate for the European Union economy. We identified that only 259 out of 13,331 (~ 1%) known invasive alien species have reported costs in the European Union. Using a conservative subset of highly reliable, observed, country-level cost entries from 49 species (totalling US$4.7 billion; 2017 value), combined with the establishment data of alien species within European Union member states, we projected unreported cost data for all member states. Conclusions: Our corrected estimate of observed costs was potentially 501% higher (US$28.0 billion) than currently recorded. Using future projections of current estimates, we also identified a substantial increase in costs and costly species (US$148.2 billion) by 2040. We urge that cost reporting be improved to clarify the economic impacts of greatest concern, concomitant with coordinated international action to prevent and mitigate the impacts of invasive alien species in the European Union and globally. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12302-023-00750-3.

Comparing the Above and Below-Ground Chemical Defences of Three Rumex Species Between Their Native and Introduced Provenances.

Compared to their native range, non-native plants often experience reduced levels of herbivory in the introduced range. This may result in reduced pressure to produce chemical defences that act against herbivores. We measured the most abundant secondary metabolites found in Rumex spp., namely oxalates, phenols and tannins. To test this hypothesis, we compared native (UK) and introduced (NZ) provenances of three different Rumex species (R. obtusifolius, R. crispus and R. conglomeratus, Polygonaceae) to assess whether any significant differences existed in their levels of chemical defences in either leaves and roots. All three species have previously been shown to support a lower diversity of insect herbivores and experience less herbivory in the introduced range. We further examined leaf herbivory on plants from both provenances when grown together in a common garden experiment in New Zealand to test whether any differences in damage might be consistent with variation in the quantity of chemical defences. We found that two Rumex species (R. obtusifolius and R. crispus) showed no evidence for a reduction in chemical defences, while a third (R. conglomeratus) showed only limited evidence. The common garden experiment revealed that the leaves analysed had low levels of herbivory (~ 0.5%) with no differences in damage between provenances for any of the three study species. Roots tended to have a higher concentration of tannins than shoots, but again showed no difference between the provenances. As such, the findings of this study provide no evidence for lower plant investments in chemical defences, suggesting that other factors explain the success of Rumex spp. in New Zealand.

Why Are Invasive Plants Successful?

Plant invasions, a byproduct of globalization, are increasing worldwide. Because of their ecological and economic impacts, considerable efforts have been made to understand and predict the success of non-native plants. Numerous frameworks, hypotheses, and theories have been advanced to conceptualize the interactions of multiple drivers and context dependence of invasion success with the aim of achieving robust explanations with predictive power. We review these efforts from a community-level perspective rather than a biogeographical one, focusing on terrestrial systems, and explore the roles of intrinsic plant properties in determining species invasiveness, as well as the effects of biotic and abiotic conditions in mediating ecosystem invasibility (or resistance) and ecological and evolutionary processes. We also consider the fundamental influences of human-induced changes at scales ranging from local to global in triggering, promoting, and sustaining plant invasions and discuss how these changes could alter future invasion trajectories.

A network perspective for sustainable agroecosystems.

Nature-based management aims to improve sustainable agroecosystem production, but its efficacy has been variable. We argue that nature-based agroecosystem management could be significantly improved by explicitly considering and manipulating the underlying networks of species interactions. A network perspective can link species interactions to ecosystem functioning and stability, identify influential species and interactions, and suggest optimal management approaches. Recent advances in predicting the network roles of species from their functional traits could allow direct manipulation of network architecture through additions or removals of species with targeted traits. Combined with improved understanding of the structure and dynamics of networks across spatial and temporal scales and interaction types, including social-ecological, applying these tools to nature-based management can contribute to sustainable agroecosystems.

Global drivers of herbicide-resistant weed richness in major cereal crops worldwide.

BACKGROUND: The number of herbicide-resistant weeds differs across the globe but the reasons for this variation are poorly understood. Taking a macroecological approach, the role of six drivers of herbicide resistance in a country was examined for barley, maize, rice and wheat crops worldwide. Drivers captured agronomic measures (crop harvested area, herbicide and fertilizer input) as well as sources of sampling bias that result in under-reporting of herbicide resistance (human population density, research intensity and time since the first record of resistance). RESULTS: Depending on the crop, best subset regression models explained between 60% and 80% of the variation in herbicide-resistant weeds recorded in countries worldwide. Global prevalence of herbicide-resistant weeds is likely underestimated, especially in countries with limited capability in herbicide research. Numbers of resistant weeds worldwide will continue to increase. Agricultural intensification, captured by fertilizer and herbicide input, as well as further expansion of crop harvested area are primary drivers of future herbicide-resistant weeds. CONCLUSION: Because the evolution of herbicide resistance lags behind the selection pressures imposed by fertilizer and herbicide inputs, several countries (e.g. Brazil, South Africa, Uruguay) appear to exhibit a 'herbicide resistance debt' in which current agronomic conditions have set the scene for higher numbers of herbicide-resistant weeds than currently observed. Future agricultural expansion will lead to more herbicide-resistant weeds, especially in developing countries as their economies grow and where herbicide resistance is currently under-reported. A global strategy for increasing national capability in herbicide resistance research is needed. © 2022 The Author. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Species prevalence and plant traits discriminate between herbicide resistant and susceptible weeds.

BACKGROUND: Herbicide resistant weeds pose one of the most significant global challenges to sustainable food and fiber production. Plant traits are assumed to play a significant role in determining whether a weed is likely to evolve herbicide resistance but there have been few quantitative assessments to date. There is therefore an urgent need to investigate both the demographic and evolutionary characteristics of weeds to predict which weed species are likely to evolve herbicide resistance. Here, the discriminatory power of multiple plant traits was examined by comparing herbicide resistant and herbicide susceptible weeds in the United States. RESULTS: Despite the taxonomic and agronomic similarity of herbicide resistant and susceptible weeds in the United States, differences between these groups were captured by a relatively small set of explanatory variables. Herbicide resistant weeds were found across more states than susceptible species and this suggests widespread weeds also happen to be more problematic in crops and therefore specifically targeted for weed control. In terms of traits, herbicide resistant species were more likely to be outcrossing, have unisexual flowers and be wind pollinated as well as have larger chromosome numbers and seed size than herbicide susceptible weeds. CONCLUSIONS: A trait-based approach to understanding herbicide resistance confirms many assumptions as to the genetic attributes that make a weed more likely to evolve herbicide resistance. Scope therefore exists to build better risk assessment tools to identify future herbicide resistance hazards by incorporating plant traits, environmental tolerances, and evidence of herbicide resistance elsewhere in the world. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Hierarchical cluster analysis of herbicide modes of action reveals distinct classes of multiple resistance in weeds.

BACKGROUND: The number of weed species resistant to multiple herbicide modes of action (MoAs) has increased over the last 30 years and may in the future render existing herbicide MoAs obsolete for many cropping systems. Yet few predictive tools exist to manage this risk. Using a worldwide dataset of weed species resistant to multiple herbicide MoAs, hierarchical clustering was used to classify MoAs into similar groups in relation to the suite of resistant weed species they have in common. Network analyses then were used to explore the relative importance of species prevalence and similarity in cluster patterns. RESULTS: Hierarchical clustering identified three similarly sized clusters of herbicide MoAs that were linked by the co-occurrence of resistant weeds: Herbicide Resistance Action Committee (HRAC) groups 2, 4, 5 and 9; HRAC groups 12, 14 and 15; and HRAC groups 1, 3 and 22. Cluster membership was consistent with similarities in the physiological or biochemical target of the herbicide MoAs. Network analyses revealed that the number of weed species resistant to two different MoAs was related to the number of weeds known to be resistant to each individual herbicide MoA. CONCLUSIONS: Hierarchical cluster analysis provided new insights into the risk of weeds becoming resistant to more than one herbicide MoA. By clustering herbicide MoAs into three distinct groups, the potential exists for farmers to manage resistance by rotating herbicides between rather than within clusters, as far as crop, weed and environmental conditions allow.

Addressing context dependence in ecology.

Context dependence is widely invoked to explain disparate results in ecology. It arises when the magnitude or sign of a relationship varies due to the conditions under which it is observed. Such variation, especially when unexplained, can lead to spurious or seemingly contradictory conclusions, which can limit understanding and our ability to transfer findings across studies, space, and time. Using examples from biological invasions, we identify two types of context dependence resulting from four sources: mechanistic context dependence arises from interaction effects; and apparent context dependence can arise from the presence of confounding factors, problems of statistical inference, and methodological differences among studies. Addressing context dependence is a critical challenge in ecology, essential for increased understanding and prediction.

Importance of greater interdisciplinarity and geographic scope when tackling the driving forces behind biological invasions.

Invasive non-native species are important drivers of ecosystem change, yet the driving forces of biological invasions themselves are poorly understood. Such information is essential to ensure policies focus on the most relevant drivers, and that future scenarios capture the full range of potential outcomes for invasive non-native species. I carried out a bibliometric analysis of articles published from 2000 to 2020 that address either invasive non-native species or biodiversity and ecosystem services and that also mention 1 or more drivers of ecosystem change. I examined 5 indirect drivers (demographic, economic, governance, sociocultural, and technological) and 6 direct drivers (climate change, invasive non-native species, land-use or sea-use change, natural hazards, pollution, and resource extraction). Using the Web of Science core collection of citation indexes, I undertook searches of article titles and keywords and retrieved 27,462 articles addressing invasive non-native species and 110,087 articles dealing with biodiversity or ecosystem services. Most research to date on biological invasions as well as on biodiversity and ecosystem services has focused on anthropogenic direct drivers of ecosystem change rather than indirect drivers. Yet currently, less than 18% of articles addressing biological invasions examined drivers of ecosystem change, a similar level to that found over 20 years ago for biodiversity or ecosystem services. Knowledge of the drivers of biological invasions is limited, emphasizes tractable drivers over those that require an interdisciplinary approach, and is biased toward developed economies. Drivers generally deemed important for biological invasions, such as governance and resource extraction, accounted for less than 2% of research effort. The absence of a systematic understanding of the forces that drive invasive non-native species and how they interact means that attempts to mitigate or forecast biological invasions are likely to fail. To address biological invasions requires a much better orientation of national and international research on drivers in relation to both their actual importance as well as their policy relevance.

Importancia de un Mayor Enfoque Geográfico e Interdisciplinario al Abordar las Causas detrás de las Invasiones Biológicas Resumen Las especies invasoras no nativas son causas importantes de los cambios en el ecosistema; sin embargo, las mismas causas de las invasiones biológicas no se entienden claramente. Dicha información es esencial para asegurar que las políticas se enfoquen en las causas más relevantes, y que los escenarios futuros capturen la gama completa de resultados potenciales para las especies invasoras no nativas. Realicé un análisis biométrico de artículos publicados desde el año 2000 y hasta el 2020 que tratan el tema de las especies invasoras no nativas o el de los servicios ambientales y la biodiversidad y que también mencionan uno o más causas de los cambios en el ecosistema. Examiné cinco causas indirectas (demográficas, económicas, de gestión, socioculturales y tecnológicas) y seis causas directas (cambio climático, especie invasora no nativa, cambio en el uso de suelo o del mar, peligros naturales, contaminación y extracción de recursos). Mediante la colección central de índices de referencia de la plataforma Web of Science, realicé la búsqueda de títulos de artículos y palabras clave y recopilé 27,462 artículos sobre especies invasoras no nativas y 110,087 sobre servicios ambientales y biodiversidad. Las especies invasoras no nativas estuvieron menos estudiadas que otras causas antropogénicas directas del cambio en los ecosistemas (p. ej.: cambio climático, cambio en el uso de suelo, contaminación y extracción de recursos). Actualmente, <18% de los artículos que abordan las invasiones biológicas examinaron las causas del cambio ambiental, un nivel similar al hallado hace más de 20 años para la biodiversidad o los servicios ambientales. El conocimiento sobre las causas de las invasiones biológicas está limitado, enfatiza a las causas rastreables por encima de aquellas que requieren de un enfoque interdisciplinario y está sesgado hacia las economías desarrolladas. Las causas que generalmente se consideran importantes para las invasiones biológicas, como la gestión y la extracción de recursos, representaron <2% del esfuerzo de investigación. La ausencia de un entendimiento sistemático de las fuerzas que impulsan a las especies invasoras no nativas y cómo interactúan significa que probablemente fallen los intentos por mitigar o pronosticar las invasiones biológicas. Para abordar las invasiones biológicas se requiere una mucho mejor orientación de la investigación nacional e internacional sobre las causas en relación con su importancia actual y su relevancia política.

Weed seed contamination in imported seed lots entering New Zealand.

Imports of seeds for sowing are a major pathway for the introduction of contaminant seeds, and many agricultural weeds globally naturalised originally have entered through this pathway. Effective management of this pathway is a significant means of reducing future plant introductions and helps minimise agricultural losses. Using a national border inspection database, we examined the frequency, origin and identity of contaminant seeds within seed for sowing shipments entering New Zealand between 2014-2018. Our analysis looked at 41,610 seed lots across 1,420 crop seed species from over 90 countries. Overall, contamination was rare, occurring in 1.9% of all seed lots. Among the different crop types, the arable category had the lowest percentage of seed lots contaminated (0.5%) and the forage category had the highest (12.6%). Crop seeds Capsicum, Phaseolus and Solanum had the lowest contamination rates (0.0%). Forage crops Medicago (27.3%) and Trifolium (19.8%) had the highest contamination rates. Out of 191 genera recorded as contaminants, Chenopodium was the most common. Regulated quarantine weeds were the rarest contaminant type, only occurring in 0.06% of seed lots. Sorghum halepense was the most common quarantine species and was only found in vegetable seed lots. Vegetable crop seed lots accounted for approximately half of all quarantine species detections, Raphanus sativus being the most contaminated vegetable crop. Larger seed lots were significantly more contaminated and more likely to contain a quarantine species than smaller seed lots. These findings support International Seed Testing Association rules on maximum seed lot weights. Low contamination rates suggest industry practices are effective in minimising contaminant seeds. Considering New Zealand inspects every imported seed lot, utilises a working sample size 5 times larger than International Seed Testing Association rules require, trades crop seed with approximately half of the world's countries and imports thousands of crop seed species, our study provides a unique overview of contaminant seeds that move throughout the seed for sowing system.

One Biosecurity: a unified concept to integrate human, animal, plant, and environmental health.

In the wake of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the world has woken up to the importance of biosecurity and the need to manage international borders. Yet strong sectorial identities exist within biosecurity that are associated with specific international standards, individual economic interests, specific research communities, and unique stakeholder involvement. Despite considerable research addressing human, animal, plant, and environmental health, the science connections between these sectors remain quite limited. One Biosecurity aims to address these limitations at global, national, and local scales. It is an interdisciplinary approach to biosecurity policy and research that builds on the interconnections between human, animal, plant, and environmental health to effectively prevent and mitigate the impacts of invasive alien species. It provides an integrated perspective to address the many biosecurity risks that transcend the traditional boundaries of health, agriculture, and the environment. Individual invasive alien plant and animal species often have multiple impacts across sectors: as hosts of zoonotic parasites, vectors of pathogens, pests of agriculture or forestry, as well as threats to biodiversity and ecosystem function. It is time these risks were addressed in a systematic way. One Biosecurity is essential to address several major sociological and environmental challenges to biosecurity: climate change, increasing urbanisation, agricultural intensification, human global mobility, loss of technical capability as well as public resistance to pesticides and vaccines. One Biosecurity will require the bringing together of taxonomists, population biologists, modellers, economists, chemists, engineers, and social scientists to engage in a new agenda that is shaped by politics, legislation, and public perceptions.

Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050.

Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business-as-usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back-casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this resulted in 3,790 stochastic simulation runs for 38 taxon-continent combinations. We provide the first quantitative projections of future trajectories of alien species numbers for seven major taxonomic groups in eight continents, accounting for variation in sampling intensity and uncertainty in projections. Overall, established alien species numbers per continent were predicted to increase from 2005 to 2050 by 36%. Particularly, strong increases were projected for Europe in absolute (+2,543 ± 237 alien species) and relative terms, followed by Temperate Asia (+1,597 ± 197), Northern America (1,484 ± 74) and Southern America (1,391 ± 258). Among individual taxonomic groups, especially strong increases were projected for invertebrates globally. Declining (but still positive) rates were projected only for Australasia. Our projections provide a first baseline for the assessment of future developments of biological invasions, which will help to inform policies to contain the spread of alien species.