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BACKGROUND: Cutaneous confocal microscopy (CCCM) facilitates in vivo visualisation of skin at a cellular level. Use of a "store and forward" approach for remote CCM interpretation (Remote-CCM) across multiple sites has not been tested and may increase access to non-invasive diagnosis. OBJECTIVE: To test the diagnostic accuracy and safety of Remote-CCM. METHODS: We prospectively recruited lesions selected for biopsy for skin malignancy across five Australian tertiary dermatology centres. CCM, clinical and dermoscopy images were acquired pre-biopsy and accessed by a cloud-based platform for interpretation by CCM readers. CCM diagnosis was compared to histopathology results. RESULTS: Amongst the 201 lesions included, melanoma was the most common malignancy (34/72, 47.2%). Of the 89 lesions (44.8%) potentially 'saved' from biopsy, 80 (90%) were truly benign lesions and 9 (10.1%) were missed malignant lesions of MIS (n=7) and SCC (n=2). No invasive melanomas were missed. Sensitivity of remote-CCM for detection of malignancy was 89% (95%CI 79-95%) and specificity was 64% (95%CI 55-73%). LIMITATIONS: The study recruited from high-risk populations and excluded lesions that were not biopsied. CONCLUSION: Remote-CCM has comparable accuracy to bedside-CCM and safely reduces unnecessary biopsies. Potential SCCs are not appropriate for remote-CCM. Follow-up of borderline melanocytic lesions is recommended.
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INTRODUCTION: Approximately 50 % of resected stage II-IV melanoma patients develop recurrent disease by 5 years despite adjuvant anti-PD-1 therapy. Data to define best management of recurrences is lacking. METHODS: This was a multicentre, international, retrospective cohort study. Patients with resected stage II-IV melanoma who commenced adjuvant anti-PD-1-based therapy before January 2022 and later recurred were identified. Data on demographics, disease characteristics, recurrence patterns, management and outcomes were collected. RESULTS: 711 patients from 17 sites were included. Median age was 60 [range 16-92], 64 % were male, 2 % stage II, 91 % were stage III, 7 % stage IV. Median time to recurrence was 6.2 months (0-68.5) and median follow up time from recurrence was 19.8 months (range 0.2-73.1). 63 % recurred on anti-PD-1 therapy, 36 % off therapy [3 % < 6 months, 33 % > 6 months]. Initial recurrences were locoregional (LR) alone in 44 %, distant alone (DR) in 43 %, and 11 % in both sites. LR recurrences were managed with local therapy, alone (62 %) or with "second adjuvant" anti-PD-1 (14 %) or BRAF/MEK therapy (23 %); 12 m RFS2 was 25 %, 29 % and 69 % respectively (p = 0.0045). Definitive systemic therapy at first recurrence was given in 16 % LR and 86 % DR, with best outcomes for anti-CTLA4 + anti-PD-1 and trial combinations (24 m PFS 63 % and 69 %, respectively). The 24 m OS for the entire cohort was 65 %. CONCLUSION: Most recurrences following adjuvant anti-PD-1 based therapy occur early and while still on drug. Outcomes are poor, regardless of site, timing of recurrence, and subsequent treatment.
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Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have transformed cancer treatment, providing significant benefit to patients across various tumour types, including melanoma. However, around 40% of melanoma patients do not benefit from ICI treatment, and accurately predicting ICI response remains challenging. We now describe a novel and simple approach that integrates immune-associated transcriptome signatures and tumour volume burden to better predict ICI response in melanoma patients. RNA sequencing was performed on pre-treatment (PRE) tumour specimens derived from 32 patients with advanced melanoma treated with combination PD1 and CTLA4 inhibitors. Of these 32 patients, 11 also had early during treatment (EDT, 5-15 days after treatment start) tumour samples. Tumour volume was assessed at PRE for all 32 patients, and at first computed tomography (CT) imaging for the 11 patients with EDT samples. Analysis of the Hallmark IFNγ gene set revealed no association with ICI response at PRE (AUC ROC curve = 0.6404, p = 0.24, 63% sensitivity, 71% specificity). When IFNg activity was evaluated with tumour volume (ratio of gene set expression to tumour volume) using logistic regression to predict ICI response, we observed high discriminative power in separating ICI responders from non-responders (AUC = 0.7760, p = 0.02, 88% sensitivity, 67% specificity); this approach was reproduced with other immune-associated transcriptomic gene sets. These findings were further replicated in an independent cohort of 23 melanoma patients treated with PD1 inhibitor. Hence, integrating tumour volume with immune-associated transcriptomic signatures improves the prediction of ICI response, and suggest that higher levels of immune activation relative to tumour burden are required for durable ICI response.
Subject(s)
Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors , Immunotherapy , Melanoma , Tumor Burden , Humans , Melanoma/drug therapy , Melanoma/immunology , Melanoma/genetics , Melanoma/pathology , Melanoma/therapy , Tumor Burden/drug effects , Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors/therapeutic use , Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors/pharmacology , Immunotherapy/methods , Transcriptome , Prognosis , Treatment Outcome , Biomarkers, Tumor , Female , Male , Programmed Cell Death 1 Receptor/antagonists & inhibitors , Gene Expression Profiling , Middle Aged , Gene Expression Regulation, Neoplastic/drug effects , AgedABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Tumoral melanosis (TM) is a histological term to describe a nodular aggregation of macrophages containing melanin pigment (melanophages) that is devoid of viable melanocytes. It is most often identified in skin, where it may be appreciated clinically as a pigmented lesion; however, it can also be found in other organs such as lymph nodes. The presence of TM is usually thought to signify the presence of a regressed melanoma or other pigmented tumor. Until recently, it was a relatively uncommon finding; however, with the use of effective systemic therapies against melanoma, its occurrence in histological specimens is more frequent. METHODS: We identified and reviewed all histopathological diagnoses of TM at any organ site reported at a single institution from 2006 to 2018. TM cases were paired with non-TM cases of cutaneous melanoma through propensity score matching at a 1:2 ratio, and their survival outcomes were compared. The clinical outcomes examined included recurrence-free survival (RFS), distant disease-free survival (DDFS), melanoma-specific survival (MSS), and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: TM was reported in 79 patients. Their median age was 65 years (range 22-88), with a 2:1 male predominance (51 out of 79, 65%). The most common organ involved was the skin (67%), with a third of all cases localized to a lower limb (36%). TM had a strong association with the presence of melanoma (91%) and regression at other sites of melanoma (54%), suggesting that it is part of a systemic immune response against melanoma. Most patients with TM either previously or subsequently developed histologically confirmed melanoma in the same anatomical region as the TM (89%). Thirty-five TM patients were matched with 70 non-TM cases. Patients with melanoma who developed TM without prior regional or systemic therapy showed improved MSS (p = 0.03), whereas no statistically significant differences were observed in terms of RFS, DDFS, and OS. CONCLUSIONS: TM usually occurs in the context of a previous or subsequent cutaneous melanoma and is associated with improved MSS. It is important that TM is recognized by pathologists and documented in pathology reports.
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BACKGROUND: Melanoma is increasingly recognized as a heterogeneous disease, with conflicting evidence regarding whether cutaneous head and neck melanoma (CHNM) represents a distinct entity. OBJECTIVE: Comparison of clinicopathological features and treatment outcomes of CHNM and cutaneous melanomas of other sites (CMOS). METHODS: Patients with CHNM and CMOS diagnosed between 2000 and 2018 were included. Locoregional control, distant metastasis-free survival, melanoma-specific survival (MSS), and overall survival (OS) were described using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox regression analyses were performed to examine associations between prognostic factors and outcomes. Additional analyses of survival from time of stage IV disease diagnosis were undertaken, stratified by receipt of BRAF-targeted therapy and immune checkpoint inhibitor immunotherapy. RESULTS: Of 3007 CHNM and 10,637 CMOS patients, CHNM had more adverse pathological features (median age 65.9 vs 58.5, P < .001; median Breslow thickness 1.7 mm vs 1.2 mm, P < .001; and ulceration 21.2% vs 18.2%, P < .001). CHNM had worse locoregional control (hazard ratio (HR) 1.17, P < .001) and distant metastasis-free survival (HR 1.25, P < .001) but there were no significant differences in MSS or OS. Among stage IV patients who received immune checkpoint inhibitor, CHNM had better MSS (HR 0.56, P = .001) and OS (HR 0.57, P < .001) on multivariable analyses. LIMITATIONS: Retrospective study, offset by prospective data collection. CONCLUSION: CHNM is associated with a distinct clinicopathological and prognostic profile.
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The prognosis of a patient with a primary cutaneous melanoma is known to be related to the Breslow thickness of their tumor. This study sought to determine long-term (30-year) survival rates for the four AJCC 8th Edition T-categories by analyzing Australian registry data for 210,042 melanoma patients diagnosed from 1982-2014. The 30-year incidence rates of death due to melanoma and non-melanoma causes (with 95% confidence intervals) were 7.1% (CI 6.9-7.3%) and 32.8% (CI 32.3-33.3%), respectively. For T2 melanomas, the corresponding rates were 21.6% (CI 21.0-22.3%) and 35.6% (CI 34.7-36.6%), for T3 melanomas 34.2% (CI 33.4-35.1%) and 39.6% (CI 38.5-40.8%), and for T4 melanomas 44.3% (CI 43.2-45.3%) and 39.6% (CI 38.3-41.0%). A plateau in melanoma-related deaths occurred in T4 patients after 20 years but there were ongoing melanoma-related deaths for the other T-categories beyond 30 years. A progressive rise in the risk of death from other causes occurred across all T-categories.
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Immune checkpoint inhibitors and BRAF-targeted therapy each improve survival in melanoma. Immune changes early during targeted therapy suggest the mechanisms of each drug class could work synergistically. In the non-comparative, randomized, phase 2 NeoTrio trial, we investigated whether targeted therapy could boost the proportion of patients achieving long-term recurrence-free survival with neoadjuvant immunotherapy in resectable stage III BRAFV600-mutant melanoma. Sixty patients (42% females) were randomized to pembrolizumab alone (n = 20), sequential therapy (dabrafenib plus trametinib followed by pembrolizumab; n = 20) or concurrent (triple) therapy (n = 20), followed by surgery and adjuvant therapy. The primary outcome was pathological response; secondary outcomes included radiographic response, recurrence-free survival, overall survival, surgical outcomes, peripheral blood and tumor analyses and safety. The pathological response rate was 55% (11/20; including six pathological complete responses (pCRs)) with pembrolizumab, 50% (10/20; three pCRs) with sequential therapy and 80% (16/20; ten pCRs) with concurrent therapy, which met the primary outcome in each arm. Treatment-related adverse events affected 75-100% of patients during neoadjuvant treatment, with seven early discontinuations (all in the concurrent arm). At 2 years, event-free survival was 60% with pembrolizumab, 80% with sequential therapy and 71% with concurrent therapy. Recurrences after major pathological response were more common in the targeted therapy arms, suggesting a reduction in response 'quality' when targeted therapy is added to neoadjuvant immunotherapy. Risking the curative potential of immunotherapy in melanoma cannot be justified. Pending longer follow-up, we suggest that immunotherapy and targeted therapy should not be combined in the neoadjuvant setting for melanoma. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT02858921 .
Subject(s)
Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized , Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols , Imidazoles , Melanoma , Mutation , Neoadjuvant Therapy , Oximes , Proto-Oncogene Proteins B-raf , Pyridones , Pyrimidinones , Humans , Melanoma/drug therapy , Melanoma/genetics , Melanoma/pathology , Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized/therapeutic use , Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized/administration & dosage , Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized/adverse effects , Pyrimidinones/therapeutic use , Pyrimidinones/administration & dosage , Pyridones/therapeutic use , Pyridones/administration & dosage , Proto-Oncogene Proteins B-raf/genetics , Female , Male , Middle Aged , Oximes/administration & dosage , Oximes/therapeutic use , Aged , Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/therapeutic use , Adult , Imidazoles/therapeutic use , Imidazoles/administration & dosage , Immunotherapy/methodsABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: We investigated the association between sun protection behaviours and demographic and melanoma risk characteristics of patients attending Australian melanoma specialist clinics. This may assist in targeting and tailoring melanoma prevention patient education for people at high-risk and specific population subgroups. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis of questionnaire data collected from participants attending the dermatology clinics at two major melanoma centres in Sydney, Australia between February 2021 and September 2023. The primary outcome was Sun Protection Habits (SPH) index (a summary score measured as habitual past month use of sunscreen, hats, sunglasses, a shirt with sleeves that covers the shoulders, limiting midday sun exposure and seeking shade, using a Likert scale). The primary analysis considered the SPH index and its component items scored as continuous. RESULTS: Data from 883 people were analysed. Factors associated with less frequent sun protection behaviours overall included male gender, no personal history of melanoma, lower perceived risk, lower calculated 10-year risk of developing melanoma, and no private health insurance. People aged >61 years reported lower use of sunscreen but higher use of hats and sleeved-shirts compared with people in the younger age group. There was no difference in overall sun protection behaviours according to family history of melanoma, country of birth or by lifetime melanoma risk among people without a personal history of melanoma. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the potential for targeting high-risk individuals with less frequent use of sun protection for patient education, public health messaging and ultimately improving sun protection behaviours.
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BACKGROUND: There is a strong correlation between cigarette smoking and the development of many cancer types. It is therefore paradoxical that multiple reports have suggested a reduced incidence of melanoma in smokers. This study aimed to analyze all existing studies of melanoma incidence in smokers relative to non-smokers. METHODS: Searches of MEDLINE and Embase were conducted for studies reporting data on melanoma in smokers and never-smokers. No study design limitations or language restrictions were applied. The outcome examined was the association between smoking status and melanoma. Analyses focussed on risk of melanoma in smokers and never-smokers generated from multivariable analyses and these were pooled using a fixed effects model. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa tool. FINDINGS: Forty-nine studies that included 59,429 melanoma patients were identified. Pooled analyses showed that current-smokers had a significantly-reduced risk of melanoma both in males (risk ratio (RR) 0.60, 95%CI_0.56 to0.65, p < .001) and females (RR 0.79- 95%-CI-0.73-to-0.86, p < .001). Male former-smokers had a 16% reduction in melanoma risk compared to never-smokers (RR-0.84,-95%CI-0.77-to-0.93, p < .001), but no risk reduction was observed in female former-smokers (RR-1.0-95%CI-0.92-to-1.08). INTERPRETATION: Current-smokers have a significantly-reduced risk of developing melanoma compared to never-smokers, with a reduction in melanoma risk of 40% in men and 21% in women.
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BACKGROUND: Phase 1-2 trials involving patients with resectable, macroscopic stage III melanoma have shown that neoadjuvant immunotherapy is more efficacious than adjuvant immunotherapy. METHODS: In this phase 3 trial, we randomly assigned patients with resectable, macroscopic stage III melanoma, in a 1:1 ratio, to receive two cycles of neoadjuvant ipilimumab plus nivolumab and then undergo surgery or to undergo surgery and then receive 12 cycles of adjuvant nivolumab. Only the patients in the neoadjuvant group who had a partial response or nonresponse received subsequent adjuvant treatment. The primary end point was event-free survival. RESULTS: A total of 423 patients underwent randomization. At a median follow-up of 9.9 months, the estimated 12-month event-free survival was 83.7% (99.9% confidence interval [CI], 73.8 to 94.8) in the neoadjuvant group and 57.2% (99.9% CI, 45.1 to 72.7) in the adjuvant group. The difference in restricted mean survival time was 8.00 months (99.9% CI, 4.94 to 11.05; P<0.001; hazard ratio for progression, recurrence, or death, 0.32; 99.9% CI, 0.15 to 0.66). In the neoadjuvant group, 59.0% of the patients had a major pathological response, 8.0% had a partial response, 26.4% had a nonresponse (>50% residual viable tumor), and 2.4% had progression; in 4.2%, surgery had not yet been performed or was omitted. The estimated 12-month recurrence-free survival was 95.1% among patients in the neoadjuvant group who had a major pathological response, 76.1% among those who had a partial response, and 57.0% among those who had a nonresponse. Adverse events of grade 3 or higher that were related to systemic treatment occurred in 29.7% of the patients in the neoadjuvant group and in 14.7% in the adjuvant group. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with resectable, macroscopic stage III melanoma, neoadjuvant ipilimumab plus nivolumab followed by surgery and response-driven adjuvant therapy resulted in longer event-free survival than surgery followed by adjuvant nivolumab. (Funded by Bristol Myers Squibb and others; NADINA ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04949113.).
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BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant systemic therapy (NAST) for patients with stage III melanoma achieves high major pathologic response rates and high recurrence-free survival rates. This study aimed to determine how NAST with targeted therapies (TTs) and immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) influences surgical outcomes after lymph node dissection in terms of complications, morbidity, and textbook outcomes. METHODS: Patients who underwent a lymph node dissection after either NAST in a clinical trial or upfront surgery for stage III melanoma between 2014 and 2022 were identified from an institutional research database. RESULTS: The study included 89 NAST-treated patients and 79 upfront surgery-treated patients. The rate of postoperative complications did not differ between the NAST- and upfront surgery-treated patients (55% vs. 51%; p = 0.643), and steroid treatment for drug toxicity did not influence the complication rate (odds ratio [OR], 1.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.4-3; p = 0.826). No significant differences in postoperative morbidity were observed in terms of seroma (23% vs. 11%; p = 0.570) or lymphedema (36% vs. 51%; p = 0.550). The rate of achieving a textbook outcome was comparable for the two groups (61% vs. 57%; p = 0.641). CONCLUSIONS: The surgical outcomes after lymph node dissections were comparable between the patients who received NAST and those who had upfront surgery, indicating that surgery can be safely performed after NAST with TT or ICI for stage III melanoma.
Subject(s)
Lymph Node Excision , Melanoma , Neoadjuvant Therapy , Neoplasm Staging , Humans , Melanoma/surgery , Melanoma/pathology , Melanoma/drug therapy , Melanoma/mortality , Female , Male , Middle Aged , Follow-Up Studies , Survival Rate , Aged , Skin Neoplasms/pathology , Skin Neoplasms/surgery , Skin Neoplasms/drug therapy , Postoperative Complications , Retrospective Studies , Adult , Australia , Prognosis , Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/therapeutic use , Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors/therapeutic useABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Predicting which patients with American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) T1-T2 melanomas will have a positive sentinel lymph node (SLN) is challenging. Melanoma Institute Australia (MIA) developed an internationally validated SLN metastatic risk calculator. This study evaluated the nomogram's impact on T1-T2 melanoma patient management at MIA. METHODS: SLN biopsy (SLNB) rates were compared for the pre- and post-nomogram periods of 1 July 2018-30 June 2019 and 1 August 2020-31 July 2021, respectively. RESULTS: Overall, 850 patients were identified (pre-nomogram, 383; post-nomogram, 467). SLNB was performed in 29.0% of patients in the pre-nomogram group and 34.5% in the post-nomogram group (p = 0.091). The overall positivity rate was 16.2% in the pre-nomogram group and 14.9% in the post-nomogram group (p = 0.223). SLNB was performed less frequently in T1a melanoma patients in the pre-nomogram group (1.1%, n = 2/177) than in the post-nomogram group (8.6%, n = 17/198) [p ≤ 0.001]. This increase was particularly for melanomas with a risk score ≥ 5%, with an SLN positivity rate of 11.8% in the post-nomogram group (p = 0.004) compared with zero. For T1b melanomas with a risk score of > 10%, the SLNB rate was 40.0% (8/20) pre-nomogram and 75.0% (12/16) post-nomogram (p = 0.049). CONCLUSIONS: In this specialized center, the SLN risk calculator appears to influence practice for melanomas previously considered low risk for metastasis, with increased use of SLNB for T1a and higher-risk T1b melanomas. Further evaluation is required across broader practice settings. Melanoma management guidelines could be updated to incorporate the availability of nomograms to better select patients for SLNB than previous criteria.
Subject(s)
Melanoma , Nomograms , Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy , Sentinel Lymph Node , Skin Neoplasms , Humans , Melanoma/pathology , Melanoma/surgery , Female , Male , Middle Aged , Sentinel Lymph Node/pathology , Sentinel Lymph Node/surgery , Risk Assessment , Skin Neoplasms/pathology , Skin Neoplasms/surgery , Aged , Follow-Up Studies , Prognosis , Adult , Lymphatic Metastasis , Neoplasm Staging , Retrospective Studies , Aged, 80 and overABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The combination of anti-PD-1 and anti-CTLA-4 has been associated with improvement in response and survival over anti-PD-1 monotherapy in unselected patients with advanced melanoma. Whether patients with liver metastases also benefit from the combination of anti-PD-1 and anti-CTLA-4 over anti-PD-1, is unclear. In this study, we sought to assess whether the combination of anti-PD-1 and anti-CTLA-4 leads to better response, progression-free survival and overall survival, compared with anti-PD-1 monotherapy for patients with liver metastases. METHODS: We have conducted an international multicentre retrospective study. Patients with advanced melanoma with liver metastases treated with 1st line anti-PD1 monotherapy or with anti-CTLA-4 were included. The endpoints of this study were: objective response rate, progression-free survival and overall survival. RESULTS: With a median follow-up from commencement of anti-PD-1 monotherapy or in combination with anti-CTLA-4 of 47 months (95% CI, 42-51), objective response rate was higher with combination therapy (47%) versus anti-PD-1 monotherapy (35%) (p = 0.0027), while progression-free survival and overall survival were not statistically different between both treatment groups. However, on multivariable analysis with multiple imputation for missing values and adjusting for predefined variables, combination of anti-PD1 and anti-CTLA-4 was associated with higher objective response (OR 2.21, 1.46 - 3.36; p < 0.001), progression-free survival (HR 0.73, 0.57 - 0.92; p = 0.009) and overall survival (HR 0.71, 0.54 - 0.94; p = 0.018) compared to anti-PD1 monotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this study will help guide treatment selection for patients who present with liver metastases, suggesting that combination therapy should be considered for this group of patients.
Subject(s)
Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols , CTLA-4 Antigen , Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors , Liver Neoplasms , Melanoma , Programmed Cell Death 1 Receptor , Humans , Melanoma/drug therapy , Melanoma/secondary , Melanoma/mortality , Male , Retrospective Studies , Female , Liver Neoplasms/secondary , Liver Neoplasms/drug therapy , Liver Neoplasms/mortality , Middle Aged , CTLA-4 Antigen/antagonists & inhibitors , Aged , Programmed Cell Death 1 Receptor/antagonists & inhibitors , Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors/therapeutic use , Adult , Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/therapeutic use , Aged, 80 and over , Progression-Free Survival , Skin Neoplasms/drug therapy , Skin Neoplasms/pathology , Skin Neoplasms/mortalitySubject(s)
Hidradenitis Suppurativa , Sepsis , Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome , Humans , Hidradenitis Suppurativa/immunology , Hidradenitis Suppurativa/complications , Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome/immunology , Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome/diagnosis , Sepsis/immunology , Female , Male , Adult , Middle Aged , Databases, Factual/statistics & numerical dataABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Psoriasis is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Biologic agents have revolutionised psoriatic skin control. This study aims to assess the change in cardiovascular risk factors in a cohort of patients treated with 1 year of continuous biologic treatment. METHODS: A retrospective medical record review was conducted of consecutive patients receiving biologic therapy for chronic plaque psoriasis in a single dermatology centre at a major tertiary hospital in Australia. The effect of biologic therapy on psoriasis was assessed using a psoriasis area severity index (PASI). Cardiovascular risk factors included systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic BP (DBP), heart rate (HR) and body mass index (BMI). Measurements at baseline and 1-year follow-up were compared using paired t-tests. RESULTS: A total of 106 patients were reviewed with a median age of 44 years, and 63% of the patients were male. At baseline, mean BMI was 30 (SD 7), mean SBP was 129 (SD 17), mean DBP was 81 (SD 9) and mean HR was 82 (SD 14). Over 12 months, the PASI was reduced from 17.4 (SD 8.5) to 1.4 (SD 1.7, p < 0.001) indicating skin improvement. There was no significant difference from baseline in SBP (difference 2.3 mmHg, 95% CI - 1.4-5.9), DBP (0.6 mmHg, 95% CI - 1.2-2.5), BMI (difference - 0.1 kg/m2, 95% CI - 0.9-0.7) or HR (difference 1.3, 95% CI - 3.9-6.4). CONCLUSION: In patients with psoriasis, markers of cardiovascular disease risk did not improve after 1 year of biologic therapy despite significant improvements in psoriasis skin severity.
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BACKGROUND: The introduction of adjuvant systemic treatment for patients with high-risk melanomas necessitates accurate staging of disease. However, inconsistencies in outcomes exist between disease stages as defined by the American Joint Committee on Cancer (8th edition). We aimed to develop a tool to predict patient-specific outcomes in people with melanoma rather than grouping patients according to disease stage. METHODS: Patients older than 13 years with confirmed primary melanoma who underwent sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) between Oct 29, 1997, and Nov 11, 2013, at four European melanoma centres (based in Berlin, Germany; Amsterdam and Rotterdam, the Netherlands; and Warsaw, Poland) were included in the development cohort. Potential predictors of recurrence-free and melanoma-specific survival assessed were sex, age, presence of ulceration, primary tumour location, histological subtype, Breslow thickness, sentinel node status, number of sentinel nodes removed, maximum diameter of the largest sentinel node metastasis, and Dewar classification. A prognostic model and nomogram were developed to predict 5-year recurrence-free survival on a continuous scale in patients with stage pT1b or higher melanomas. This model was also calibrated to predict melanoma-specific survival. Model performance was assessed by discrimination (area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC]) and calibration. External validation was done in a cohort of patients with primary melanomas who underwent SLNB between Jan 30, 1997, and Dec 12, 2013, at the Melanoma Institute Australia (Sydney, NSW, Australia). FINDINGS: The development cohort consisted of 4071 patients, of whom 2075 (51%) were female and 1996 (49%) were male. 889 (22%) had sentinel node-positive disease and 3182 (78%) had sentinel node-negative disease. The validation cohort comprised 4822 patients, of whom 1965 (41%) were female and 2857 (59%) were male. 891 (18%) had sentinel node-positive disease and 3931 (82%) had sentinel node-negative disease. Median follow-up was 4·8 years (IQR 2·3-7·8) in the development cohort and 5·0 years (2·2-8·9) in the validation cohort. In the development cohort, 5-year recurrence-free survival was 73·5% (95% CI 72·0-75·1) and 5-year melanoma-specific survival was 86·5% (85·3-87·8). In the validation cohort, the corresponding estimates were 66·1% (64·6-67·7) and 83·3% (82·0-84·6), respectively. The final model contained six prognostic factors: sentinel node status, Breslow thickness, presence of ulceration, age at SLNB, primary tumour location, and maximum diameter of the largest sentinel node metastasis. In the development cohort, for the model's prediction of recurrence-free survival, the AUC was 0·80 (95% CI 0·78-0·81); for prediction of melanoma-specific survival, the AUC was 0·81 (0·79-0·84). External validation showed good calibration for both outcomes, with AUCs of 0·73 (0·71-0·75) and 0·76 (0·74-0·78), respectively. INTERPRETATION: Our prediction model and nomogram accurately predicted patient-specific risk probabilities for 5-year recurrence-free and melanoma-specific survival. These tools could have important implications for clinical decision making when considering adjuvant treatments in patients with high-risk melanomas. FUNDING: Erasmus Medical Centre Cancer Institute.
Subject(s)
Lymphadenopathy , Melanoma , Sentinel Lymph Node , Skin Neoplasms , Humans , Male , Female , Melanoma/pathology , Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy , Skin Neoplasms/pathology , Retrospective Studies , Lymphatic Metastasis , Sentinel Lymph Node/surgery , Sentinel Lymph Node/pathology , Prognosis , Lymphadenopathy/pathologyABSTRACT
PURPOSE: Improvements in recurrence-free survival (RFS) were demonstrated in two recent randomized trials for patients with sentinel node (SN)-negative stage IIB or IIC melanoma receiving adjuvant systemic therapy (pembrolizumab/nivolumab). However, adverse events also occurred. Accurate individualized prognostic estimates of RFS and overall survival (OS) would allow patients to more accurately weigh the risks and benefits of adjuvant therapy. Since the current American Joint Committee on Cancer eighth edition (AJCC-8) melanoma staging system focuses on melanoma-specific survival, we developed a multivariable risk prediction calculator that provides estimates of 5- and 10-year RFS and OS for these patients. METHODS: Data were extracted from the Melanoma Institute Australia (MIA) database for patients diagnosed with stage II (clinical or pathological) melanoma (n = 3,220). Survival prediction models were developed using multivariable Cox regression analyses (MIA models) and externally validated twice using data sets from the United States and the Netherlands. Each model's performance was assessed using C-statistics and calibration plots and compared with Cox models on the basis of AJCC-8 staging (stage models). RESULTS: The 5-year and 10-year RFS C-statistics were 0.70 and 0.73 (MIA-model) versus 0.61 and 0.60 (stage-model), respectively. For OS, the 5-year and 10-year C-statistics were 0.71 and 0.75 (MIA-model) compared with 0.62 and 0.61 (stage-model), respectively. The MIA models were well calibrated and externally validated. CONCLUSION: The MIA models offer accurate and personalized estimates of both RFS and OS in patients with stage II melanoma even in the absence of pathological staging with SN biopsy. These models were robust on external validations and may be used in everyday practice both with (ideally) and without performing SN biopsy to identify high-risk patients for further management strategies. An online tool will be available at the MIA website (Risk Prediction Tools).