Age-Dependent Association Between Pre-transplant Blood Transfusion and Outcomes of Pediatric Heart Transplantation.

Avoidance of red blood cell (RBC) transfusions in patients awaiting heart transplantation (HTx) has been suggested to minimize the risk of allosensitization. Although recent studies have suggested that an immature immune system in younger HTx recipients may reduce risks associated with RBC transfusion, the role of age in moderating the influence of transfusion on HTx outcomes remains unclear. We used available data from a national transplant registry to explore whether the association between pre-transplant transfusions and outcomes of pediatric HTx varies by patient age. De-identified data were obtained from the United Network for Organ Sharing registry, including first-time recipients of isolated HTx performed at age 0-17 years in 1995-2015. The primary exposure was receiving blood transfusions within 2 weeks prior to HTx. Patient survival after HTx was evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards, where age at transplant was interacted with exposure to pre-transplant transfusion. Age-specific hazard ratios (HRs) of pre-transplant transfusion were plotted across ages at transplant. There were 4883 patients meeting inclusion criteria, of whom 1258 died during follow-up (mean follow-up duration 6 ± 5 years). Patients receiving pre-transplant transfusions were distinguished by younger age, higher prevalence of prior cardiac surgery, greater likelihood of being in the intensive care unit, and greater use of left ventricular assist device bridge to transplant. In multivariable analysis, pre-transplant transfusions were associated with increased mortality hazard among infants < 1 year of age (HR = 1.46; 95% CI 1.23, 1.74; p < 0.001). For each additional year of age, the excess hazard associated with pre-transplant transfusions decreased by 3% (interaction HR = 0.97; 95% CI 0.98, 0.99; p = 0.003). By age 8, the association between pre-transplant transfusions and post-transplant mortality was no longer statistically significant (HR = 1.15; 95% CI 0.99, 1.32; p = 0.060). Pre-transplant transfusions were associated with increased mortality hazard only among younger children (age < 8 years) undergoing HTx. These data support the current practices of transfusion avoidance prior to HTx, particularly in younger patients.

Genotyping of Bartonella bacteria and their animal hosts: current status and perspectives.

Growing evidence demonstrates that bacterial species diversity is substantial, and many of these species are pathogenic in some contexts or hosts. At the same time, laboratories and museums have collected valuable animal tissue and ectoparasite samples that may contain substantial novel information on bacterial prevalence and diversity. However, the identification of bacterial species is challenging, partly due to the difficulty in culturing many microbes and the reliance on molecular data. Although the genomics revolution will surely add to our knowledge of bacterial systematics, these approaches are not accessible to all researchers and rely predominantly on cultured isolates. Thus, there is a need for comprehensive molecular analyses capable of accurately genotyping bacteria from animal tissues or ectoparasites using common methods that will facilitate large-scale comparisons of species diversity and prevalence. To illustrate the challenges of genotyping bacteria, we focus on the genus Bartonella, vector-borne bacteria common in mammals. We highlight the value and limitations of commonly used techniques for genotyping bartonellae and make recommendations for researchers interested in studying the diversity of these bacteria in various samples. Our recommendations could be applicable to many bacterial taxa (with some modifications) and could lead to a more complete understanding of bacterial species diversity.

The drebrin/EB3 pathway drives invasive activity in prostate cancer.

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer in men and the metastatic form of the disease is incurable. We show here that the drebrin/EB3 pathway, which co-ordinates dynamic microtubule/actin filament interactions underlying cell shape changes in response to guidance cues, plays a role in prostate cancer cell invasion. Drebrin expression is restricted to basal epithelial cells in benign human prostate but is upregulated in luminal epithelial cells in foci of prostatic malignancy. Drebrin is also upregulated in human prostate cancer cell lines and co-localizes with actin filaments and dynamic microtubules in filopodia of pseudopods of invading cells under a chemotactic gradient of the chemokine CXCL12. Disruption of the drebrin/EB3 pathway using BTP2, a small molecule inhibitor of drebrin binding to actin filaments, reduced the invasion of prostate cancer cell lines in 3D in vitro assays. Furthermore, gain- or loss-of-function of drebrin or EB3 by over-expression or siRNA-mediated knockdown increases or decreases invasion of prostate cancer cell lines in 3D in vitro assays, respectively. Finally, expression of a dominant-negative construct that competes with EB3 binding to drebrin, also inhibited invasion of prostate cancer cell lines in 3D in vitro assays. Our findings show that co-ordination of dynamic microtubules and actin filaments by the drebrin/EB3 pathway drives prostate cancer cell invasion and is therefore implicated in disease progression.

A prospective one-year natural history study of mucopolysaccharidosis types IIIA and IIIB: Implications for clinical trial design.

Mucopolysaccharidosis type III is a group of four autosomal recessive enzyme deficiencies leading to tissue accumulation of heparan sulfate. Central nervous system disease is prominent, with initial normal development followed by neurocognitive decline leading to death. In order to define outcome measures suitable for gene transfer trials, we prospectively assessed disease progression in MPS IIIA and IIIB subjects >2years old at three time points over one year (baseline, 6 and 12months). Fifteen IIIA (9 male, 6 female; age 5.0±1.9years) and ten IIIB subjects (8 male, 2 female; age 8.6±3years) were enrolled, and twenty subjects completed assessments at all time points. Cognitive function as assessed by Mullen Scales maximized at the 2.5 to 3year old developmental level, and showed a significant age-related decline over a 6month interval in three of five subdomains. Leiter nonverbal IQ (NVIQ) standard scores declined toward the test floor in the cohort by 6 to 8years of age, but showed significant mean declines over a 6month interval in those <7years old (p=0.0029) and in those with NVIQ score≥45 (p=0.0313). Parental report of adaptive behavior as assessed by the Vineland-II composite score inversely correlated with age and showed a significant mean decline over 6month intervals (p=0.0004). Abdominal MRI demonstrated increased volumes in liver (mean 2.2 times normal) and spleen (mean 1.9 times normal) without significant change over one year; brain MRI showed ventriculomegaly and loss of cortical volume in all subjects. Biochemical measures included urine glycosaminoglycan (GAG) levels, which although elevated showed a decline correlating with age (p<0.0001) and approached normal values in older subjects. CSF protein levels were elevated in 32% at enrollment, and elevations of AST and ALT were frequent. CSF enzyme activity levels for either SGSH (in MPS IIIA subjects) or NAGLU (in MPS IIIB) significantly differed from normal controls. Several other behavioral or functional measures were found to be uninformative in this population, including timed functional motor tests. Our results suggest that cognitive development as assessed by the Mullen and Leiter-R and adaptive behavior assessment by the Vineland parent interview are suitable functional outcomes for interventional trials in MPS IIIA or IIIB, and that CSF enzyme assay may be a useful biomarker to assess central nervous system transgene expression in gene transfer trials.

Genes located in a chromosomal inversion are correlated with territorial song in white-throated sparrows.

The genome of the white-throated sparrow (Zonotrichia albicollis) contains an inversion polymorphism on chromosome 2 that is linked to predictable variation in a suite of phenotypic traits including plumage color, aggression and parental behavior. Differences in gene expression between the two color morphs, which represent the two common inversion genotypes (ZAL2/ZAL2 and ZAL2/ZAL2(m) ), may therefore advance our understanding of the molecular underpinnings of these phenotypes. To identify genes that are differentially expressed between the two morphs and correlated with behavior, we quantified gene expression and terrirorial aggression, including song, in a population of free-living white-throated sparrows. We analyzed gene expression in two brain regions, the medial amygdala (MeA) and hypothalamus. Both regions are part of a 'social behavior network', which is rich in steroid hormone receptors and previously linked with territorial behavior. Using weighted gene co-expression network analyses, we identified modules of genes that were correlated with both morph and singing behavior. The majority of these genes were located within the inversion, showing the profound effect of the inversion on the expression of genes captured by the rearrangement. These modules were enriched with genes related to retinoic acid signaling and basic cellular functioning. In the MeA, the most prominent pathways were those related to steroid hormone receptor activity. Within these pathways, the only gene encoding such a receptor was ESR1 (estrogen receptor 1), a gene previously shown to predict song rate in this species. The set of candidate genes we identified may mediate the effects of a chromosomal inversion on territorial behavior.

Increasing the therapeutic efficacy of docetaxel for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma through the combined inhibition of phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase/AKT signalling and autophagy.

Early-stage cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) has a favourable prognosis. Metastatic disease is probably associated with chemoresistance mediated through the activation of pro-survival phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase/AKT signalling. Inhibition of activated AKT partially increases chemosensitivity but induces autophagy, the principal lysosomal mechanism for the bulk degradation and recycling of proteins and damaged organelles. The aim of the current study was to test the hypothesis that combined inhibition of AKT signalling and autophagy by the lysosomal inhibitor chloroquine increases the susceptibility to docetaxel-induced apoptosis of cSCC cells isolated from a lymph-node metastasis. Combined AKT inhibition and chloroquine treatment of MET 4 cSCC cells resulted in significantly enhanced inhibition of cell viability and apoptosis induced by clinically achievable concentrations of docetaxel (P < 0.001). Inhibition of both autophagy and AKT thus represents an effective and viable therapeutic strategy to increase the cytotoxicity of docetaxel for the treatment of advanced cSCC.

In amenable mortality--deaths avoidable through health care--progress in the US lags that of three European countries.

We examined trends and patterns of amenable mortality-deaths that should not occur in the presence of timely and effective health care-in the United States compared to those in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom between 1999 and 2007. Americans under age sixty-five during this period had elevated rates of amenable mortality compared to their peers in Europe. For Americans over age sixty-five, declines in amenable mortality slowed relative to their peers in Europe. Overall, amenable mortality rates among men from 1999 to 2007 fell by only 18.5 percent in the United States compared to 36.9 percent in the United Kingdom. Among women, the rates fell by 17.5 percent and 31.9 percent, respectively. Although US men and women had the lowest mortality from treatable cancers among the four countries, deaths from circulatory conditions-chiefly cerebrovascular disease and hypertension-were the main reason amenable death rates remained relatively high in the United States. These findings strengthen the case for reforms that will enable all Americans to receive timely and effective health care.

In vitro allergen challenge of peripheral blood induces differential gene expression in mononuclear cells of asthmatic patients: inhibition of cytosolic phospholipase A2alpha overcomes the asthma-associated response.

BACKGROUND: Existing treatments for asthma are not effective in all patients and disease exacerbations are common, highlighting the need for increased understanding of disease mechanisms and novel treatment strategies. The leukotriene pathway including the enzyme responsible for arachidonic acid release from cellular phospholipids, cPLA(2)alpha, is a major contributor to asthmatic responses and an attractive target in asthma therapies. OBJECTIVE: The study reported here investigates (a) the differential effects of in vitro exposure of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) to allergen between asthma and healthy subjects, and (b) the contribution of cPLA(2)alpha to these differences in gene expression. METHODS: In vitro responses of asthma (N=26) and healthy (N=11) subject PBMC samples to allergen stimulation in the presence and absence of cPLA(2)alpha inhibition or 5-lipoxygenase inhibition were compared at the gene expression level using oligonucleotide arrays and at the protein level using ELISA. RESULTS: Subject samples within both asthma and healthy groups showed allergen-dependent cytokine production and allergen-dependent gene expression changes, although transcriptional profiling identified 153 genes that were modulated significantly differently by allergen between asthma and healthy subjects. Among these were genes previously associated with asthma, but the majority (about 80%) have not previously been associated with asthma. CONCLUSIONS: Transcriptional profiling elucidated novel gene expression differences between the asthmatic and healthy subject samples. Although 5-lipoxygenase inhibition did not significantly affect allergen-modulated gene expression, the inhibition of cPLA(2)alpha activity affected many of the allergen-dependent, asthma-associated gene expression changes.

Measuring the health of nations: updating an earlier analysis.

We compared trends in deaths considered amenable to health care before age seventy-five between 1997-98 and 2002-03 in the United States and in eighteen other industrialized countries. Such deaths account, on average, for 23 percent of total mortality under age seventy-five among males and 32 percent among females. The decline in amenable mortality in all countries averaged 16 percent [corrected] over this period. The United States was an outlier, with a decline of only 4 percent. If the United States could reduce amenable mortality to the average rate achieved in the three top-performing countries, there would have been 101,000 fewer deaths per year by the end of the study period.

Supplemental vitamin C and yeast cell wall beta-glucan as growth enhancers in newborn pigs and as immunomodulators after an endotoxin challenge after weaning.

To test possible dietary immune modulators, 32 crossbred male pigs were given 1 of 4 dietary treatments (8 pigs/treatment): control, Saccharomyces cerevisiae with beta-glucan (Energy Plus, Natural Chem Industries LTD, Houston, TX; 0.312 g/kg of BW, 2.5% of diet), vitamin C (Stay C 35, DSM Nutritional Products Inc., Prisippany, NJ; 75 ppm), or beta-glucan plus vitamin C together (combination; 0.312 g/kg of BW and 75 ppm, respectively). Supplements were given in whole milk within 36 h of birth and then daily for 2 wk until weaning, when the supplement was given in feed for an additional 2 wk. Growth was recorded during the 4 wk of supplement delivery. An i.v. lipopolysaccharide challenge (LPS; 150 microg/kg) was given 14 d postweaning at 0900. Behavior was observed, and blood samples were collected every 30 min for 4 h via a jugular catheter from -1 (0800) to 3 (1200) h relative to challenge (-60, -30, 0, 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, and 180 min), and tissues were collected after exsanguination. Beta-glucan (glucan and combination) increased (P < 0.05) BW and ADG compared with vitamin C and control. Cortisol concentrations showed an interaction (P < 0.05) of the beta-glucan and vitamin C. Intestinal expression of tumor-necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha mRNA was greatest for vitamin C and beta-glucan compared with control and combination, and liver TNF-alpha mRNA expression showed a main effect (P < 0.01) of beta-glucan. Lung expression of TNF-alpha mRNA exhibited a vitamin C effect (P < 0.01). In contrast, spleen had greater (P < 0.01) relative abundance of TNF-alpha mRNA in beta-glucan pigs. Intestinal expression of IL-1Ra mRNA was greater (P < 0.05) for vitamin C and beta-glucan treatments compared with the control and combination pigs. Liver expression of IL-1 receptor antagonist mRNA exhibited a vitamin C effect (P < 0.01). Lying and sleeping behaviors differed (P < 0.05) among treatments early in the observations (0700 to 0720), then sporadically until 50 min after the LPS injection. The vitamin C group slept less (P < 0.05) on those occasions. The time spent lying was least (P < 0.05) for the glucan and combination pigs immediately after the injection. These results show a complex interaction between vitamin C and this yeast product after LPS challenge, with differential expression in tissues by 2 h after LPS injections. The combination enhanced postweaning growth and reduced TNF-alpha expression of the intestinal and liver tissues, suggesting an important immunomodulatory role of the combination treatment.

A method for the amidation of recombinant peptides expressed as intein fusion proteins in Escherichia coli.

The increasing use of peptides as pharmaceutical agents, especially in the antiviral and anti-infective therapeutic areas, requires cost-effective production on a large scale. Many peptides need carboxy amidation for full activity or prolonged bioavailability. However, this modification is not possible in prokaryotes and must be done using recombinant enzymes or by expression in transgenic milk. Methods employing recombinant enzymes are appropriate for small-scale production, whereas transgenic milk expression is suitable for making complex disulfide-containing peptides required in large quantity. Here we describe a method for making amidated peptides using a modified self-cleaving vacuolar membrane ATPase (VMA) intein expression system. This system is suitable for making amidated peptides at a laboratory scale using readily available constructs and reagents. Further improvements are possible, such as reducing the size of the intein to improve the peptide yields (the VMA intein comprises 454 amino acids) and, if necessary, secreting the fusion protein to ensure correct N-terminal processing to the peptide. With such developments, this method could form the basis of a large-scale cost-effective system for the bulk production of amidated peptides without the use of recombinant enzymes or the need to cleave fusion proteins.

Comparison of physiological and radiological screening for lung volume reduction surgery.

Physiological and radiological criteria are both used to identify candidates for LVRS. This study compares the predictive value of these screening techniques among patients with homogeneous (Ho) and heterogeneous (He) emphysema. Preoperative inspiratory lung conductance (G(Li)) during spontaneous breathing and quantitative radioisotope V/Q scan (QVQS) results were available for 48 of 50 patients undergoing bilateral LVRS for emphysema. Ho disease (n = 21) was defined by QVQS as an upper/lower perfusion ratio (ULPR) between 0.75 and1.25. G(Li) correlated with 6-mo improvement in FEV(1) (DeltaFEV(1)-6) (r = 0.53, p < 0.001) for the entire cohort, and for patients with both Ho (n = 21, r = 0.56, p = 0.015) and He disease (n = 27, r = 0.46, p = 0.017). ULPR correlated less well with DeltaFEV(1)-6 (n = 48, r = -0.38; p = 0.008) for the cohort, and was significantly correlated with outcomes only in the subgroup of patients with He disease (r = -0.40, p = 0.04). Multivariate regression demonstrated that by combining G(Li) and ULPR criteria, 33% of the DeltaFEV(1)-6 response could be accounted for. We conclude that both physiological and radiological criteria help identify appropriate candidates for LVRS. G(Li) best identifies patients with Ho emphysema who may benefit from surgery, but would be excluded on the basis of strictly radiological criteria. ULPR helps identify patients with He disease that improves with surgery, despite unfavorable G(Li).

Surveillance transbronchial lung biopsies: implication for survival after lung transplantation.

OBJECTIVES: We wished to determine whether early rejection after lung transplantation as assessed by surveillance transbronchial biopsy predicts for survival. METHODS: Between 1990 and 1997, 96 consecutive patients had lung transplantation: 89 had a minimum 1-month follow-up. For 71 consecutive patients we have 1-year follow-up and for 69 patients we have the results of the first 3 biopsies. Cytomegalovirus status, bronchiolitis obliterans prevalence, and use of total lymphoid irradiation are noted. Biopsies were done at 1 week and 1, 3, and 6 months. Standard immunosuppression consisted of induction antilymphocyte globulin and high-dose methylprednisolone induction for 1 week and standard maintenance triple therapy. Acute rejection treatment was with pulse methylprednisolone. Bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome was treated with total lymphoid irradiation and a change to tacrolimus and mycophenolate. Blinded grading using International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation classification was done retrospectively. RESULTS: Survival at 1 month and 1, 2, and 3 years for the 96-patient cohort with 1-year follow-up was 93%, 74%, 62%, and 56%. Survival was not significantly different for subsets with rejection on any combination of the first 3 biopsies (1/3, 2/3, 3/3) or absence of rejection on the first 3 biopsies. Ninety-one positive biopsy results were graded. Eighteen of 71 patients had one or more moderate or severe rejection episodes without survival difference relative to the others. There was no statistically significant association between acute rejection on the first 3 surveillance biopsy results and bronchiolitis obliterans. CONCLUSIONS: Intensive induction and maintenance immunotherapy with surveillance transbronchial biopsies and aggressive treatment of acute rejection is associated with a survival similar to that of patients without early acute rejection. This regimen appears to uncouple the association between early acute rejection and bronchiolitis obliterans. Further study may elucidate this mechanism.

Hyaluronan fragments synergize with interferon-gamma to induce the C-X-C chemokines mig and interferon-inducible protein-10 in mouse macrophages.

Hallmarks of chronic inflammation and tissue fibrosis are increased influx of activated inflammatory cells, mediator release, and increased turnover and production of the extracellular matrix (ECM). Recent evidence has suggested that fragments of the ECM component hyaluronan play a role in chronic inflammation by inducing macrophage expression of chemokines. Interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma), an important regulator of macrophage functions, has been shown to induce the C-X-C chemokines Mig and IP-10. These chemokines affect T-cell recruitment and inhibit angiogenesis. The purpose of this investigation was to determine the effect of hyaluronan (HA) on IFN-gamma-induced Mig and IP-10 expression in mouse macrophages. We found a marked synergy between HA and IFN-gamma on Mig and IP-10 mRNA and protein expression in mouse macrophages. This was most significant with Mig, which was not induced by HA alone. The synergy was specific for HA, was not dependent on new protein synthesis, was not mediated by tumor necrosis factor-alpha, was selective for Mig and IP-10, and occurred at the level of gene transcription. These data suggest that the ECM component HA may influence chronic inflammatory states by working in concert with IFN-gamma to alter macrophage chemokine expression.

Relatives children say.

In an experiment designed to elicit restrictive relatives clauses, 28 children ranging in age from 2; 2 to 3; 10 provided a corpus of communicatively appropriate relative clauses. In evaluating this corpus, we found that most children produced mostly adult relative clauses most of the time. Detailed study of these utterances uncovered a few error patterns, which we analyzed in light of several considerations (e.g. the overall frequency of an error type, its distribution across children and items, its relation to the construction under study, and the similarity of the error to what children do elsewhere). Only one error pattern, namely some children's production of inappropriate relative pronouns, is argued to reflect a systematic feature of language development. We conclude that children's ability to represent the syntactic structure of the embedded clause is on target very early.

Production of biologically active salmon calcitonin in the milk of transgenic rabbits.

Salmon calcitonin (sCT) is an example of one of the many bioactive peptides that require amidation of the carboxy terminus for full potency. We describe a method for the production of amidated sCT in the mammary gland of transgenic rabbits. Expression of a fusion protein comprising human alpha lactalbumin joined by an enterokinase cleavable linker to sCT was directed to the mammary gland under the control of the ovine beta lactoglobulin promoter. C-terminal amidation in vivo was achieved by extending the sCT by a single glycine residue that provides a substrate for endogenous amidating activity in the mammary gland. Full characterization of the released sCT demonstrated it to be equivalent to synthetic standard in terms of structure, purity, and potency.

Stimulation of inducible nitric oxide synthase in rat liver by hyaluronan fragments.

Hepatic injury and chronic wounding are characterized by increased synthesis of extracellular matrix proteins including hyaluronan (HA). Recently, it has been recognized that low-molecular-weight fragments of HA, but not native HA (e.g., high-molecular-weight HA), induce inflammatory gene expression, and activate the transcriptional regulator, nuclear factor kappaB (NF-kappaB). The inducible isoform of nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) is induced by cytokines and/or lipopolysaccharide (LPS) through the NF-kappaB signal transduction pathway. Because of this association, we hypothesized that HA fragments might also stimulate iNOS gene transcription. The aims of this study were therefore to determine whether HA or HA fragments induced iNOS in hepatic cells, and to characterize the signaling pathway. HA fragments (100 microg/mL) markedly stimulated iNOS messenger RNA (mRNA) in endothelial and Kupffer cells, but minimally induced this mRNA in hepatocytes and stellate cells. High-molecular-weight HA (200 microg/mL) had no effect on iNOS mRNA in any cell type. The addition of interferon gamma (IFN-gamma) to HA fragments resulted in stimulation of iNOS mRNA 2-, 3-, 4-, and 10-fold above that for HA fragments alone in hepatocytes, endothelial, Kupffer, and stellate cells, respectively. The combination of HA fragments and LPS did not result in an incremental increase in iNOS mRNA induction. iNOS protein and nitrite levels (used as a measure of NO production and NOS enzymatic activity) paralleled closely iNOS mRNA expression and increased proportionally to HA fragment concentration in a dose-dependent fashion. At 1 hour following stimulation, NF-kappaB DNA binding activity was detected in extracts from Kupffer cells stimulated with HA fragments, but not in those exposed to media alone or to high-molecular-weight HA. Finally, inhibitors of NF-kappaB blocked HA fragment-dependent iNOS mRNA induction in Kupffer and sinusoidal endothelial cells. The data indicate that HA fragments, but not high-molecular-weight HA, induce iNOS in liver, having the greatest effects on endothelial and Kupffer cells. We speculate that HA fragments may be an important stimulus for NO production in various forms of liver disease, particularly as a cofactor with inflammatory cytokines.

Limitations of epidemiologically based needs assessment. The case of prostatectomy.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to make epidemiologically based estimates of the prevalent and incident "need" for prostatectomy for lower urinary tract symptoms, defined as the numbers of men who would both benefit from and want the operation. METHODS: The methods involved a consensus panel, a two-stage postal survey of 1,480 men aged 55 years or older from eight general practices to the northwest of London, United Kingdom, and a multistate life table. RESULTS: The overall response rate was 69% (initial survey: 78%, follow-up survey: 88%). A trial-based estimate of number of candidates for prostatectomy (men with symptoms that were at least moderately severe and bothersome and who would probably or definitely want surgery) was 610 men in a population of 250,000. The corresponding incidence estimate (including men with symptoms recurring after spontaneous remission or surgery) was approximately 200 per year, including approximately 110 new cases. Consensus-based estimation, including categories of patients who have not yet been subject to a trial, gave much higher figures of approximately 3,000, 650, and 200 candidates, respectively. Adding the number of men who said they were "inclined to" choose surgery would almost double these figures. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of need were highly sensitive to choice of indications and assumptions about patients' attitudes toward surgery. Population needs assessment for specific procedures will always involve judgment as well as epidemiological data and modeling.