ABSTRACT
Background & Aims: In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended peripartum antiviral prophylaxis (PAP) for pregnant women infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV) with high viremia (≥200,000 IU/ml). Hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) was also recommended as an alternative when HBV DNA is unavailable. To inform policymaking and guide the implementation of prevention of mother-to-child transmission strategies, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the proportion of HBV-infected pregnant women eligible for PAP at global and regional levels. Methods: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and CENTRAL for studies involving HBV-infected pregnant women. We extracted proportions of women with high viremia (≥200,000 IU/ml), proportions of women with positive HBeAg, proportions of women cross-stratified based on HBV DNA and HBeAg, and the risk of child infection in these maternal groups. Proportions were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Results: Of 6,999 articles, 131 studies involving 71,712 HBV-infected pregnant women were included. The number of studies per WHO region was 66 (Western Pacific), 21 (Europe), 17 (Africa), 11 (Americas), nine (Eastern Mediterranean), and seven (South-East Asia). The overall pooled proportion of high viremia was 21.27% (95% CI 17.77-25.26%), with significant regional variation: Western Pacific (31.56%), Americas (23.06%), Southeast Asia (15.62%), Africa (12.45%), Europe (9.98%), and Eastern Mediterranean (7.81%). HBeAg positivity showed similar regional variation. After cross-stratification, the proportions of high viremia and positive HBeAg, high viremia and negative HBeAg, low viremia and positive HBeAg, and low viremia and negative HBeAg were 15.24% (95% CI 11.12-20.53%), 2.70% (95% CI 1.88-3.86%), 3.69% (95% CI 2.86-4.75%), and 75.59% (95% CI 69.15-81.05%), respectively. The corresponding risks of child infection following birth dose vaccination without immune globulin and PAP were 14.86% (95% CI 8.43-24.88%), 6.94% (95% CI 2.92-15.62%), 7.14% (95% CI 1.00-37.03%), and 0.14% (95% CI 0.02-1.00%). Conclusions: Approximately 20% of HBV-infected pregnant women are eligible for PAP. Given significant regional variations, each country should tailor strategies for HBsAg screening, risk stratification, and PAP in routine antenatal care. Impact and implications: In 2020, the WHO recommended that pregnant women who test positive for the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) undergo HBV DNA testing or HBeAg and those with high viremia (≥200,000 IU/ml) or positive HBeAg receive PAP. To effectively implement new HBV PMTCT interventions and integrate HBV screening, risk stratification, and antiviral prophylaxis into routine antenatal care services, estimating the proportion of HBV-infected pregnant women eligible for PAP is critical. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we found that approximately one-fifth of HBV-infected pregnant women are eligible for PAP based on HBV DNA testing, and a similar proportion is eligible based on HBeAg testing. Owing to substantial regional variations in eligibility proportions and the availability and costs of different tests, it is vital for each country to optimize strategies that integrate HBV screening, risk stratification, and PAP into routine antenatal care services. Systematic review registration: This study was registered with PROSPERO (Protocol No: CRD42021266545).
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: There have been declines in global immunisation coverage due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recovery has begun but is geographically variable. This disruption has led to under-immunised cohorts and interrupted progress in reducing vaccine-preventable disease burden. There have, so far, been few studies of the effects of coverage disruption on vaccine effects. We aimed to quantify the effects of vaccine-coverage disruption on routine and campaign immunisation services, identify cohorts and regions that could particularly benefit from catch-up activities, and establish if losses in effect could be recovered. METHODS: For this modelling study, we used modelling groups from the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium from 112 low-income and middle-income countries to estimate vaccine effect for 14 pathogens. One set of modelling estimates used vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2021 for a subset of vaccine-preventable, outbreak-prone or priority diseases (ie, measles, rubella, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus [HPV], meningitis A, and yellow fever) to examine mitigation measures, hereafter referred to as recovery runs. The second set of estimates were conducted with vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2020, used to calculate effect ratios (ie, the burden averted per dose) for all 14 included vaccines and diseases, hereafter referred to as full runs. Both runs were modelled from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2100. Countries were included if they were in the Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance portfolio; had notable burden; or had notable strategic vaccination activities. These countries represented the majority of global vaccine-preventable disease burden. Vaccine coverage was informed by historical estimates from WHO-UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage and the immunisation repository of WHO for data up to and including 2021. From 2022 onwards, we estimated coverage on the basis of guidance about campaign frequency, non-linear assumptions about the recovery of routine immunisation to pre-disruption magnitude, and 2030 endpoints informed by the WHO Immunization Agenda 2030 aims and expert consultation. We examined three main scenarios: no disruption, baseline recovery, and baseline recovery and catch-up. FINDINGS: We estimated that disruption to measles, rubella, HPV, hepatitis B, meningitis A, and yellow fever vaccination could lead to 49â119 additional deaths (95% credible interval [CrI] 17â248-134â941) during calendar years 2020-30, largely due to measles. For years of vaccination 2020-30 for all 14 pathogens, disruption could lead to a 2·66% (95% CrI 2·52-2·81) reduction in long-term effect from 37â378â194 deaths averted (34â450â249-40â241â202) to 36â410â559 deaths averted (33â515â397-39â241â799). We estimated that catch-up activities could avert 78·9% (40·4-151·4) of excess deaths between calendar years 2023 and 2030 (ie, 18â900 [7037-60â223] of 25â356 [9859-75â073]). INTERPRETATION: Our results highlight the importance of the timing of catch-up activities, considering estimated burden to improve vaccine coverage in affected cohorts. We estimated that mitigation measures for measles and yellow fever were particularly effective at reducing excess burden in the short term. Additionally, the high long-term effect of HPV vaccine as an important cervical-cancer prevention tool warrants continued immunisation efforts after disruption. FUNDING: The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium, funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATIONS: For the Arabic, Chinese, French, Portguese and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Hepatitis B , Measles , Meningitis , Papillomavirus Infections , Papillomavirus Vaccines , Rubella , Vaccine-Preventable Diseases , Yellow Fever , Humans , Papillomavirus Infections/prevention & control , Pandemics , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Vaccination , Immunization , Hepatitis B/drug therapyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Global elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) requires expanded uptake of antiviral therapy, potentially by simplifying testing algorithms, especially in resource-limited countries. We evaluated the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of three strategies that determine eligibility for anti-HBV treatment, as compared with the WHO 2015 treatment eligibility criteria, in The Gambia. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model of natural history using data from the Prevention of Liver Fibrosis and Cancer in Africa programme (known as PROLIFICA) in The Gambia, for an HBV-infected cohort of individuals aged 20 years. The algorithms included in the model were a conventional strategy using the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) 2017 criteria, a simplified algorithm using hepatitis B e antigen and alanine aminotransferase (the Treatment Eligibility in Africa for the Hepatitis B Virus [TREAT-B] score), a Treat All approach for all HBV-infected individuals, and the WHO 2015 criteria. Outcomes to measure effectiveness were disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life saved (YLS), which were used to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) with the WHO 2015 criteria as the base-case scenario. Costs were assessed from a modified social perspective. A budget impact analysis was also done. We tested the robustness of results with a range of sensitiviy analyses including probabilistic sensitivity analysis. FINDINGS: Compared with the WHO criteria, TREAT-B resulted in 4877 DALYs averted and Treat All resulted in 9352 DALYs averted, whereas the EASL criteria led to an excess of 795 DALYs. TREAT-B was cost-saving, whereas the ICER for Treat All (US$2149 per DALY averted) was higher than the cost-effectiveness threshold for The Gambia (0·5 times the country's gross domestic product per capita: $352). These patterns did not change when YLS was the outcome. In a modelled cohort of 5000 adults (aged 20 years) with chronic HBV infection from The Gambia, the 5-year budget impact was $1·14 million for Treat All, $0·66 million for TREAT-B, $1·03 million for the WHO criteria, and $1·16 million for the EASL criteria. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that among the Treat All, EASL, and TREAT-B algorithms, Treat All would become the most preferred strategy only with a willingness-to-pay threshold exceeding approximately $72â000 per DALY averted or $110â000 per YLS. INTERPRETATION: Although the Treat All strategy might be the most effective, it is unlikely to be cost-effective in The Gambia. A simplified strategy such as TREAT-B might be a cost-saving alternative. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council). TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
Subject(s)
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis , Hepatitis B virus , Adult , Humans , Gambia , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Africa, Western , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic useABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: In 2020, WHO recommended the addition of peripartum antiviral prophylaxis (PAP) to hepatitis B birth dose vaccination (HepB-BD) and hepatitis B infant vaccination (HepB3) to reduce mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in pregnant women who have a marker of high infectivity (ie, HBV DNA ≥200 000 international units per mL or HBeAg-positive). We aimed to evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of this recommendation and of a theoretical simplified strategy whereby PAP is given to all pregnant women who are HBsAg-positive without risk stratification. METHODS: This modelling study used a dynamic simulation model of the HBV epidemic in 110 countries in all WHO regions, structured by age, sex, and country. We assessed three strategies of scaling up PAP for pregnant women: PAP for those with high viral load (PAP-VL); PAP for those who are HBeAg-positive (PAP-HBeAg); and PAP for all pregnant women who are HBsAg-positive (PAP-universal), in comparison with neonatal vaccination alone (HepB-BD). We investigated how different diagnostic and antiviral drug costs affected the cost-effectiveness of the strategies evaluated. Using a health-care provider perspective, we calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in cost (US$) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted in each country's population and compared these with country-specific cost-effectiveness thresholds. We also calculated new neonatal infections averted for each of the strategies. FINDINGS: Adding PAP-VL to HepB-BD could avert around 1·1 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·0 million-1·2 million) new neonatal infections by 2030 and around 3·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 3·0 million-3·4 million) new neonatal infections and approximately 8·8 million (7·8 million-9·7 million) DALYs by 2100 across all the countries modelled. This strategy would probably be cost-effective up to 2100 in 28 (26%) of 106 countries analysed (which included some of the countries that have the greatest HBV burden) if costs are as currently expected to be, and in 74 (70%) countries if diagnostic and monitoring costs were lowered (by about 60-75%). The relative cost-effectiveness of PAP-VL and PAP-HBeAg was finely balanced and depended on the respective diagnostic and monitoring costs. The PAP-universal strategy could be more cost-effective than either of these strategies in most countries, but the use of antiviral treatment could be five times as high than with PAP-VL. INTERPRETATION: PAP can provide substantial health benefits, and, although the current approach might already be cost-effective in some high-burden settings, decreased diagnostic costs would probably be needed for PAP to be cost-effective in most countries. Therefore, careful consideration needs to be given about how such a strategy is implemented, and securing reduced costs for diagnostics should be a priority. The theoretical strategy of offering PAP to all women who are HBsAg-positive (eg, if diagnostic tests to identify mothers at risk of transmission are not available) could be a cost-effective alternative, depending on prevailing costs of diagnostics and antiviral therapy. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, and the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium.
Subject(s)
Hepatitis B virus , Hepatitis B , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Female , Pregnancy , Humans , Hepatitis B Surface Antigens , Hepatitis B e Antigens , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Hepatitis B Vaccines/therapeutic use , Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical/prevention & control , Hepatitis B/epidemiology , Hepatitis B/prevention & control , Hepatitis B/drug therapy , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic useABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan Africa is highly endemic for hepatitis B virus (HBV); historically, most people were exposed during childhood through vertical or horizontal transmission. Although all African countries now provide a three-dose infant hepatitis B vaccination starting at age 6-8 weeks, only a third of African countries have introduced birth dose (HepB-BD) vaccine. Adding HepB-BD is fundamental to prevent vertical transmission, but its effectiveness in preventing horizontal transmission, compared with the three-dose infant vaccination alone, is unknown. We aimed to estimate the risk of early horizontal transmission in children of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-negative mothers in sub-Saharan Africa stratified according to the vaccination schedule. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis we searched MEDLINE, Global Health, Embase, African Index Medicus and African Journals Online from their inception to Oct 24, 2022, for studies reporting HBsAg or HBV DNA, or both, in children (aged 0-5 years) of HBsAg-negative mothers. We excluded studies if children were only tested at birth. Two reviewers independently screened the titles and abstracts of all articles and data were extracted using a standardised pre-piloted data extraction sheet, and authors were contacted if any important information was missing. The primary outcome was the risk of HBV infection in children of HBsAg-negative mothers, stratified by vaccination schedule (no vaccination, first dose at 6-8 weeks, or first dose at birth). We pooled the child risks of HBsAg or HBV DNA-positivity from the age of 0 years to 5 years via a random-effect meta-analysis using a generalised linear mixed model. The study was registered on PROSPERO, CRD42021236203. FINDINGS: Of 8856 articles identified, 27 studies evaluating 10â003 children of HBsAg-negative mothers were included. The pooled risks of infection were 6·16% (95% CI 3·05-12·04; 155/1407) in the no vaccination group, 0·21% (0·04-1·15; 10/3425) in children who received their first dose at 6-8 weeks, and 0·05% (0·00-1·32; 3/2902) in children who received their first dose at birth. The difference was not statistically significant in children who received their first dose at 6-8 weeks and children who received their first dose at birth after adjusting for the study period, region, and maternal HIV status (test of moderators p=0·37). INTERPRETATION: In children of HBsAg-negative mothers, the risk of infection might be minimal even with the vaccination starting at 6-8 weeks, without clear additional benefit from HepB-BD. When births take place at home and timely administration of HepB-BD is challenging, antenatal HBsAg screening and selective HepB-BD might allow efficient allocation of resources to mother and child pairs at high risk compared with universal HepB-BD. FUNDING: None. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
Subject(s)
Hepatitis B virus , Hepatitis B , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Child , Female , Humans , Pregnancy , Mothers , Hepatitis B Surface Antigens , DNA, Viral , Hepatitis B/epidemiology , Hepatitis B/prevention & control , Hepatitis B Vaccines , Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical/prevention & control , Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiologyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The 69th World Health Assembly endorsed the global health sector strategy on viral hepatitis to eliminate viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030. Achieving and measuring the 2030 targets requires a substantial increase in the capacity to test and treat viral hepatitis infections and a mechanism to monitor the progress of hepatitis elimination. This study aimed to identify the gaps in data availability or quality and create a new mechanism to monitor the progress of hepatitis elimination. METHODS: In 2020, using a questionnaire, we collected empirical, systematic, modelled, or surveyed data-reported by WHO country and WHO regional offices-on indicators of progress towards elimination of viral hepatitis, including burden of infection, incidence, mortality, and the cascade of care, and validated these data. FINDINGS: WHO received officially validated country-provided data from 130 countries or territories, and used partner-provided data for 70 countries or territories. We estimated that in 2019, globally, 295·9 million (3·8%) people were living with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and 57·8 million (0·8%) people were living with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Globally, there were more than 3·0 million new infections with HBV and HCV and more than 1·1 million deaths due to the viruses in 2019. In 2019, 30·4 million (95% CI 24·3-38·0) individuals living with hepatitis B knew their infection status and 6·6 million (5·3-8·3) people diagnosed with hepatitis B received treatment. Among people with HCV infection, 15·2 million (95% CI 12·1-19·0) had been diagnosed between 2015 and 2019, and 9·4 million (7·5-11·7) people diagnosed with hepatitis C infection were treated with direct-acting antiviral drugs between 2015 and 2019. INTERPRETATION: There has been notable global progress towards hepatitis elimination. In 2019, 30·4 million (10·3%) people living with hepatitis B knew their infection status, which was slightly higher than in 2015 (22·0 million; 9·0%), and 6·6 million (22·7%) of those diagnosed with hepatitis B received treatment, compared with 1·7 million (8·0%) in 2015. Mortality from hepatitis C has declined since 2019, driven by an increase in HCV treatment ten times that of the strategy baseline. However, an estimated 89·7% of HBV infections and 78·6% of HCV infections remain undiagnosed. A new global strategy for 2022-30, based on these new estimates, should be implemented urgently to scale up the screening and treatment of viral hepatitis. FUNDING: World Health Organization.
Subject(s)
Hepatitis A , Hepatitis B, Chronic , Hepatitis B , Hepatitis C, Chronic , Hepatitis C , Hepatitis, Viral, Human , Humans , Hepatitis B, Chronic/drug therapy , Hepatitis C, Chronic/drug therapy , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Hepatitis C/epidemiology , Hepatitis B/epidemiology , Hepacivirus , Hepatitis, Viral, Human/epidemiologyABSTRACT
Background: Clinical management of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is complex and access to antiviral treatment remains limited in sub-Saharan Africa. International guidelines recommend monitoring at least annually for disease progression among HBV-infected people not meeting treatment criteria at initial diagnosis. This study aimed to assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for monitoring. Methods: We used a mathematical model of HBV transmission and natural history, calibrated to all available West African data, to project the population-level health impact, costs and cost-effectiveness of different monitoring strategies for HBV-infected individuals not initially eligible for antiviral treatment. We assumed that these patients were found in the year 2020 in a hypothetical community-based screening programme in The Gambia. Monitoring frequencies were varied between every 5 and every 1 year and targeted different age groups. Results: The currently recommended annual monitoring frequency was likely to be not cost-effective in comparison with other strategies in this setting. 5-yearly monitoring in 15-45-year olds, at US$338 per disability-adjusted life year averted, had the highest probability of being the most effective cost-effective monitoring strategy. Conclusions: Monitoring less frequently than once a year is a cost-effective strategy in a community-based HBV screening and treatment programme in The Gambia, with the optimal strategy depending on the cost-effectiveness threshold. Efficiencies may be gained by prioritising the 15-45-year age group for more intensive monitoring.
Subject(s)
Hepatitis B, Chronic , Hepatitis B , Humans , Hepatitis B, Chronic/diagnosis , Hepatitis B, Chronic/drug therapy , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Gambia , Hepatitis B/diagnosis , Hepatitis B/drug therapy , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic useABSTRACT
Background & Aims: Strategies to implement HBV screening and treatment are critical to achieve HBV elimination but have been inadequately evaluated in sub-Saharan Africa (sSA). Methods: We assessed the feasibility of screen-and-treat interventions in 3 real-world settings (community, workplace, and hospital) in Senegal. Adult participants were screened using a rapid HBsAg point-of-care test. The proportion linked to care, the proportion who had complete clinical staging (alanine transaminase [ALT], viral load, and FibroScan®), and the proportion eligible for treatment were compared among the 3 intervention groups. Results: In 2013-2016, a total of 3,665 individuals were screened for HBsAg in the community (n = 2,153) and in workplaces (n = 1,512); 199/2,153 (9.2%) and 167/1,512 (11%) were HBsAg-positive in the community and workplaces, respectively. In the hospital setting (outpatient clinics), 638 HBsAg-positive participants were enrolled in the study. All infected participants were treatment naïve. Linkage to care was similar among community-based (69.9%), workplace-based (69.5%), and hospital-based interventions (72.6%, p = 0.617). Of HBV-infected participants successfully linked to care, full clinical staging was obtained in 47.5% (66/139), 59.5% (69/116), and 71.1% (329/463) from the community, workplaces, and hospitals, respectively (p <0.001). The proportion eligible for treatment (EASL criteria) differed among community- (9.1%), workplace- (30.4%), and hospital-based settings (17.6%, p = 0.007). Acceptability of antiviral therapy, adherence, and safety at 1 year were very good. Conclusions: HBV screen-and-treat interventions are feasible in non-hospital and hospital settings in Senegal. However, the continuum of care is suboptimal owing to limited access to full clinical staging. Improvement in access to diagnostic services is urgently needed in sSA. Lay summary: Hepatitis B infection is highly endemic in Senegal. Screening for infection can be done outside hospitals, in communities or workplaces. However, the hepatitis B continuum of care is suboptimal in Senegal and needs to be simplified to scale-up diagnosis and treatment coverage.
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BACKGROUND: Manicaland province in eastern Zimbabwe has a high incidence of HIV. Completion of the seventh round of the Manicaland Survey in 2018-2019 provided the opportunity to assess the state of the epidemic prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aims were to: a) estimate HIV seroprevalence and assess whether prevalence has declined since the last round of the survey (2012-2013), b) describe and analyse the socio-demographic and behavioural risk factors for HIV infection and c) describe the HIV treatment cascade. METHODS: Participants were administered individual questionnaires collecting data on socio-demographic characteristics, sexual relationships, HIV prevention methods and treatment access, and were tested for HIV. Descriptive analyses were followed by univariate and multivariate analyses of risk factors for HIV seropositvity using logistic regression modelling based on the proximate-determinants framework. RESULTS: HIV prevalence was 11.3% [95% CI; 10.6-12.0] and was higher in females than males up to 45-49 years. Since 2012-2013 HIV prevalence has significantly declined in 30-44 year-olds in males, and 20-44 year-olds in females. The HIV epidemic has aged since 2012-2013, with an increase in the mean age of HIV positive persons from 38 to 41 years. Socio-demographic determinants of HIV prevalence were church denomination in males, site-type, wealth-status, employment sector and alcohol use in females, and age and marital status in both sexes. Behavioural determinants associated with increased odds of HIV were a higher number of regular sexual partners (lifetime), non-regular sexual partners (lifetime) and condom use in both sexes, and early sexual debut and concomitant STIs in females; medical circumcision was protective in males. HIV status awareness among participants testing positive in our study was low at 66.2%. ART coverage amongst all participants testing positive for HIV in our study was 65.0% and was lower in urban areas than rural areas, particularly in males. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence has declined, and ART coverage increased, since 2012-2013. Majority of the associations with prevalence hypothesised by the theoretical framework were not observed in our data, likely due to underreporting of sexual risk behaviours or the treatment-as-prevention effect of ART curtailing the probability of transmission despite high levels of sexual risk behaviour. Further reductions in HIV incidence require strengthened primary prevention, HIV testing and linkage to risk behaviour counselling services. Our results serve as a valuable baseline against which to measure the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV prevalence and its determinants in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, and target interventions appropriately.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , HIV Infections , Adult , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks , Female , HIV Infections/prevention & control , Humans , Male , Pandemics , Prevalence , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Sexual Behavior , Zimbabwe/epidemiologyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Compared to other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Tanzania has a relatively progressive illicit drug harm reduction (HR) policy, through a predominantly opioid substitution therapy-based programme. However, access to hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnosis and curative direct acting antiviral therapy remains elusive. We developed a cost-effectiveness model to evaluate a simplified HCV screening-and-treatment intervention amongst PWID in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania. METHODS: A decision tree and Markov state transition model compared existing practice (no access to HCV viral confirmation and treatment) with the integration of point-of-care HCV screening and treatment within (1) existing HR services and (2) expansion to include PWID not currently engaged in HR. Outcome measures were screening, treatment, HR and disease-related costs per PWID, quality-adjusted life years (QALY) and disability adjusted life years (DALY). Cost-effectiveness was evaluated from a healthcare payer's perspective over a 30-year time horizon over a range of willingness-to-pay thresholds (USD$273 to USD$1,050). Both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses have been conducted. RESULTS: Assuming a chronic HCV prevalence of 18.8%, screening-and-treatment in existing HR settings resulted in an ICER per QALY-gained and DALY averted of USD$633 and USD$1,161, respectively. Expanding to include an outreach programme for unengaged PWID yielded an ICER per QALY-gained and DALY-averted of USD$4,091 and USD$10,288. Factors affecting the sensitivity of the ICER value included the cost of HR and the health utility of non-cirrhotic disease states. CONCLUSION: Simplified HCV screening and treatment of PWID has the potential to be cost-effective in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania. In practice, synergism of human and financial resources with established health programmes may offer a pragmatic solution to minimise operational costs.
Subject(s)
Drug Users , Hepatitis C, Chronic , Hepatitis C , Substance Abuse, Intravenous , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Disability-Adjusted Life Years , Hepatitis C/diagnosis , Hepatitis C/drug therapy , Hepatitis C, Chronic/drug therapy , Humans , Substance Abuse, Intravenous/complications , Substance Abuse, Intravenous/drug therapy , TanzaniaABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The public health impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has motivated a rapid search for potential therapeutics, with some key successes. However, the potential impact of different treatments, and consequently research and procurement priorities, have not been clear. METHODS: Using a mathematical model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, COVID-19 disease and clinical care, we explore the public-health impact of different potential therapeutics, under a range of scenarios varying healthcare capacity, epidemic trajectories; and drug efficacy in the absence of supportive care. RESULTS: The impact of drugs like dexamethasone (delivered to the most critically-ill in hospital and whose therapeutic benefit is expected to depend on the availability of supportive care such as oxygen and mechanical ventilation) is likely to be limited in settings where healthcare capacity is lowest or where uncontrolled epidemics result in hospitals being overwhelmed. As such, it may avert 22% of deaths in high-income countries but only 8% in low-income countries (assuming Râ =â 1.35). Therapeutics for different patient populations (those not in hospital, early in the course of infection) and types of benefit (reducing disease severity or infectiousness, preventing hospitalization) could have much greater benefits, particularly in resource-poor settings facing large epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: Advances in the treatment of COVID-19 to date have been focused on hospitalized-patients and predicated on an assumption of adequate access to supportive care. Therapeutics delivered earlier in the course of infection that reduce the need for healthcare or reduce infectiousness could have significant impact, and research into their efficacy and means of delivery should be a priority.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 Drug Treatment , SARS-CoV-2 , Cost of Illness , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pharmaceutical PreparationsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Deaths due to vaccine preventable diseases cause a notable proportion of mortality worldwide. To quantify the importance of vaccination, it is necessary to estimate the burden averted through vaccination. The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC) was established to estimate the health impact of vaccination. METHODS: We describe the methods implemented by the VIMC to estimate impact by calendar year, birth year and year of vaccination (YoV). The calendar and birth year methods estimate impact in a particular year and over the lifetime of a particular birth cohort, respectively. The YoV method estimates the impact of a particular year's vaccination activities through the use of impact ratios which have no stratification and stratification by activity type and/or birth cohort. Furthermore, we detail an impact extrapolation (IE) method for use between coverage scenarios. We compare the methods, focusing on YoV for hepatitis B, measles and yellow fever. RESULTS: We find that the YoV methods estimate similar impact with routine vaccinations but have greater yearly variation when campaigns occur with the birth cohort stratification. The IE performs well for the YoV methods, providing a time-efficient mechanism for updates to impact estimates. CONCLUSIONS: These methods provide a robust set of approaches to quantify vaccination impact; however it is vital that the area of impact estimation continues to develop in order to capture the full effect of immunisation.
Subject(s)
Measles , Yellow Fever , Birth Cohort , Humans , Measles/epidemiology , Measles/prevention & control , Public Health , VaccinationABSTRACT
In 2016 the World Health Organization set the goal of eliminating hepatitis B globally by 2030. Horizontal transmission has been greatly reduced in most countries by scaling up coverage of the infant HBV vaccine series, and vertical transmission is therefore becoming increasingly dominant. Here we show that scaling up timely hepatitis B birth dose vaccination to 90% of new-borns in 110 low- and middle-income countries by 2030 could prevent 710,000 (580,000 to 890,000) deaths in the 2020 to 2030 birth cohorts compared to status quo, with the greatest benefits in Africa. Maintaining this could lead to elimination by 2030 in the Americas, but not before 2059 in Africa. Drops in coverage due to disruptions in 2020 may lead to 15,000 additional deaths, mostly in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific. Delays in planned scale-up could lead to an additional 580,000 deaths globally in the 2020 to 2030 birth cohorts.
Subject(s)
Hepatitis B Vaccines/administration & dosage , Hepatitis B/prevention & control , Africa/epidemiology , Americas/epidemiology , Asia, Southeastern/epidemiology , Birth Cohort , Disease Eradication/statistics & numerical data , Female , Hepatitis B/epidemiology , Hepatitis B/mortality , Hepatitis B/virology , Hepatitis Viruses/genetics , Hepatitis Viruses/immunology , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Vaccination , World Health OrganizationABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Hospitals in England have undergone considerable change to address the surge in demand imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of this on emergency department (ED) attendances is unknown, especially for non-COVID-19 related emergencies. METHODS: This analysis is an observational study of ED attendances at the Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust (ICHNT). We calibrated auto-regressive integrated moving average time-series models of ED attendances using historic (2015-2019) data. Forecasted trends were compared to present year ICHNT data for the period between March 12, 2020 (when England implemented the first COVID-19 public health measure) and May 31, 2020. We compared ICHTN trends with publicly available regional and national data. Lastly, we compared hospital admissions made via the ED and in-hospital mortality at ICHNT during the present year to the historic 5-year average. RESULTS: ED attendances at ICHNT decreased by 35% during the period after the first lockdown was imposed on March 12, 2020 and before May 31, 2020, reflecting broader trends seen for ED attendances across all England regions, which fell by approximately 50% for the same time frame. For ICHNT, the decrease in attendances was mainly amongst those aged < 65 years and those arriving by their own means (e.g. personal or public transport) and not correlated with any of the spatial dependencies analysed such as increasing distance from postcode of residence to the hospital. Emergency admissions of patients without COVID-19 after March 12, 2020 fell by 48%; we did not observe a significant change to the crude mortality risk in patients without COVID-19 (RR 1.13, 95%CI 0.94-1.37, p = 0.19). CONCLUSIONS: Our study findings reflect broader trends seen across England and give an indication how emergency healthcare seeking has drastically changed. At ICHNT, we find that a larger proportion arrived by ambulance and that hospitalisation outcomes of patients without COVID-19 did not differ from previous years. The extent to which these findings relate to ED avoidance behaviours compared to having sought alternative emergency health services outside of hospital remains unknown. National analyses and strategies to streamline emergency services in England going forward are urgently needed.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Communicable Disease Control , Emergency Service, Hospital , Hospitals , Humans , London , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2ABSTRACT
Background: Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries. Methods: Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios. Results: We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000-2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases. Conclusions: This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future. Funding: VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium's modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (authors represented here: TBH, MJ, XL, SE-L, JT, KW, NMF, KAMG); and channelled via VIMC for travel and subsistence costs of all Consortium members (all authors). We also acknowledge funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, which supported aspects of VIMC's work (MRC grant number: MR/R015600/1).JHH acknowledges funding from National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship; Richard and Peggy Notebaert Premier Fellowship from the University of Notre Dame. BAL acknowledges funding from NIH/NIGMS (grant number R01 GM124280) and NIH/NIAID (grant number R01 AI112970). The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) receives funding support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.This paper was compiled by all coauthors, including two coauthors from Gavi. Other funders had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. All authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.
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Bacterial Infections/prevention & control , Bacterial Vaccines/therapeutic use , COVID-19 , Global Health , Models, Biological , SARS-CoV-2 , Bacterial Infections/epidemiology , HumansABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To determine the projected burden of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in China, the intervention strategies that can eliminate mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) by 2030 or earlier and the measurable parameters that can be used to monitor progress towards this target. METHODS: We developed a dynamic, sex- and age-stratified model of the HBV epidemic in China, calibrated using hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and e antigen (HBeAg) prevalence data from sequential national serosurveys (1979-2014) and the numbers of HBV-related cancer deaths (2012). We determined whether China can achieve elimination of MTCT of HBV by 2030 under current prevention interventions. We modelled various intervention scenarios to represent different coverage levels of birth-dose HBV vaccination, hepatitis B immunoglobulin to newborns of HBsAg-positive mothers and antiviral therapy (tenofovir) to HBeAg-positive pregnant women. FINDINGS: We project that, if current levels of prevention interventions are maintained, China will achieve the elimination target by 2029. By modelling various intervention scenarios, we found that this can be brought forward to 2025 by increasing coverage of birth-dose vaccination, or to 2024 by the administration of tenofovir to HBeAg-positive pregnant women. We found that achievement of the target by 2025 would be predicted by a measurement of less than 2% MTCT in 2020. CONCLUSION: Our results highlight how high-quality national data can be combined with modelling in monitoring the elimination of MTCT of HBV. By demonstrating the impact of increased interventions on target achievement dates, we anticipate that other high-burden countries will be motivated to strengthen HBV prevention policies.
Subject(s)
Disease Eradication , Hepatitis B/prevention & control , Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical/prevention & control , Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/prevention & control , Adult , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , China/epidemiology , Female , Hepatitis B/epidemiology , Hepatitis B Surface Antigens , Hepatitis B Vaccines , Hepatitis B e Antigens , Humans , Immunoglobulins/therapeutic use , Infant, Newborn , Pregnancy , Tenofovir/therapeutic useABSTRACT
Patients with strong clinical features of COVID-19 with negative real time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) SARS-CoV-2 testing are not currently included in official statistics. The scale, characteristics and clinical relevance of this group are not well described. We performed a retrospective cohort study in two large London hospitals to characterize the demographic, clinical, and hospitalization outcome characteristics of swab-negative clinical COVID-19 patients. We found 1 in 5 patients with a negative swab and clinical suspicion of COVID-19 received a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 within clinical documentation, discharge summary or death certificate. We compared this group to a similar swab positive cohort and found similar demographic composition, symptomology and laboratory findings. Swab-negative clinical COVID-19 patients had better outcomes, with shorter length of hospital stay, reduced need for > 60% supplementary oxygen and reduced mortality. Patients with strong clinical features of COVID-19 that are swab-negative are a common clinical challenge. Health systems must recognize and plan for the management of swab-negative patients in their COVID-19 clinical management, infection control policies and epidemiological assessments.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 Testing/methods , COVID-19/diagnosis , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Adult , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/genetics , COVID-19/virology , COVID-19 Testing/trends , Cohort Studies , False Negative Reactions , Female , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Hospitals , Humans , London/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction , Retrospective Studies , Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction/methods , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Specimen HandlingABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030. METHODS: 16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever. Using standardised demographic data and vaccine coverage, the impact of vaccination programmes was determined by comparing model estimates from a no-vaccination counterfactual scenario with those from a reported and projected vaccination scenario. We present deaths and DALYs averted between 2000 and 2030 by calendar year and by annual birth cohort. FINDINGS: We estimate that vaccination of the ten selected pathogens will have averted 69 million (95% credible interval 52-88) deaths between 2000 and 2030, of which 37 million (30-48) were averted between 2000 and 2019. From 2000 to 2019, this represents a 45% (36-58) reduction in deaths compared with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination. Most of this impact is concentrated in a reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years (57% reduction [52-66]), most notably from measles. Over the lifetime of birth cohorts born between 2000 and 2030, we predict that 120 million (93-150) deaths will be averted by vaccination, of which 58 million (39-76) are due to measles vaccination and 38 million (25-52) are due to hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate that increases in vaccine coverage and introductions of additional vaccines will result in a 72% (59-81) reduction in lifetime mortality in the 2019 birth cohort. INTERPRETATION: Increases in vaccine coverage and the introduction of new vaccines into LMICs have had a major impact in reducing mortality. These public health gains are predicted to increase in coming decades if progress in increasing coverage is sustained. FUNDING: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.