ABSTRACT
Wild bovids provide important ecosystem functions as seed dispersers and vegetation modifiers. Five wild bovids remain in Thailand: gaur (Bos gaurus), banteng (Bos javanicus), wild water buffalo (Bubalus arnee), mainland serow (Capricornis sumatraensis) and Chinese goral (Naemorhedus griseus). Their populations and habitats have declined substantially and become fragmented by land-use change. We use ecological niche models to quantify how much potential suitable habitat for these species remains within protected areas in Asia and then specifically Thailand. We combined species occurrence data from several sources (e.g. mainly camera traps and direct observation) with environmental variables and species-specific and single, large accessible areas in ensemble models to generate suitability maps, using out-of-sample predictions to validate model performance against new independent data. Gaur, banteng and buffalo models showed reasonable model accuracy throughout the entire distribution (greater than or equal to 62%) and in Thailand (greater than or equal to 80%), whereas serow and goral models performed poorly for the entire distribution and in Thailand, though 5 km movement buffers markedly improved the performance for serow. Large suitable areas were identified in Thailand and India for gaur, Cambodia and Thailand for banteng and India for buffalo. Over 50% of suitable habitat is located outside protected areas, highlighting the need for habitat management and conflict mitigation outside protected areas.
ABSTRACT
With less than 3200 wild tigers in 2010, the heads of 13 tiger-range countries committed to doubling the global population of wild tigers by 2022. This goal represents the highest level of ambition and commitment required to turn the tide for tigers in the wild. Yet, ensuring efficient and targeted implementation of conservation actions alongside systematic monitoring of progress towards this goal requires that we set site-specific recovery targets and timelines that are ecologically realistic. In this study, we assess the recovery potential of 18 sites identified under WWF's Tigers Alive Initiative. We delineated recovery systems comprising a source, recovery site, and support region, which need to be managed synergistically to meet these targets. By using the best available data on tiger and prey numbers, and adapting existing species recovery frameworks, we show that these sites, which currently support 165 (118-277) tigers, have the potential to harbour 585 (454-739) individuals. This would constitute a 15% increase in the global population and represent over a three-fold increase within these specific sites, on an average. However, it may not be realistic to achieve this target by 2022, since tiger recovery in 15 of these 18 sites is contingent on the initial recovery of prey populations, which is a slow process. We conclude that while sustained conservation efforts can yield significant recoveries, it is critical that we commit our resources to achieving the biologically realistic targets for these sites even if the timelines are extended.