Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Show: 20 | 50 | 100
Results 1 - 20 de 87
Filter
1.
PLoS One ; 19(10): e0311198, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39365802

ABSTRACT

Places of worship serve as a venue for both mass and routine gathering around the world, and therefore are associated with risk of large-scale SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, such routine gatherings also offer an opportunity to distribute self-tests to members of the community to potentially help mitigate transmission and reduce broader community spread of SARS-CoV-2. Over the past four years, self-testing strategies have been an impactful tool for countries' response to the COVID-19 pandemic, especially early on to mitigate the spread when vaccination and treatment options were limited. We used an agent-based mathematical model to estimate the impact of various strategies of symptomatic and asymptomatic self-testing for a fixed percentage of weekly routine gatherings at places of worship on community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil, Georgia, and Zambia. Testing strategies assessed included weekly and bi-weekly self-testing across varying levels of vaccine effectiveness, vaccine coverage, and reproductive numbers to simulate developing stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Self-testing symptomatic people attending routine gatherings can cost-effectively reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within places of worship and the community, resulting in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $69-$303 USD. This trend is especially true in contexts where population level attendance at such gatherings is high, demonstrating that a distribution approach is more impactful when a greater proportion of the population is reached. Asymptomatic self-testing of attendees at 100% of places of worship in a country results in the greatest percent of infections averted and is consistently cost-effective but remains costly. Budgetary needs for asymptomatic testing are expensive and likely unaffordable for lower-middle income countries (520-1550x greater than that of symptomatic testing alone), promoting that strategies to strengthen symptomatic testing should remain a higher priority.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Models, Theoretical , SARS-CoV-2 , Self-Testing , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/transmission , COVID-19/economics , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Developing Countries , Brazil/epidemiology , Zambia/epidemiology , COVID-19 Testing/economics , COVID-19 Testing/methods , Mass Gatherings
2.
Biomedicines ; 12(9)2024 Aug 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39335455

ABSTRACT

The recent global COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound and enduring impact, resulting in substantial loss of life. The scientific community has responded unprecedentedly by investigating various aspects of the crisis, particularly focusing on the acute phase of COVID-19. The roles of the viral load, cytokines, and chemokines during the acute phase and in the context of patients who experienced enduring symptoms upon infection, so called Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID-19 or PASC, have been studied extensively. Here, in this review, we offer a virologist's perspective on PASC, highlighting the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 viral loads, cytokines, and chemokines in different organs of patients across the full clinical spectrum of acute-phase disease. We underline that the probability of severe or critical disease progression correlates with increased viral load levels detected in the upper respiratory tract (URT), lower respiratory tract (LRT), and plasma. Acute-phase viremia is a clear, although not unambiguous, predictor of PASC development. Moreover, both the quantity and diversity of functions of cytokines and chemokines increase with acute-phase disease severity. Specific cytokines remain or become elevated in the PASC phase, although the driving factor of ongoing inflammation found in patients with PASC remains to be investigated. The key findings highlighted in this review contribute to a further understanding of PASC and their differences and overlap with acute disease.

3.
medRxiv ; 2024 Aug 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39148829

ABSTRACT

Despite intensive study, much remains unknown about the dynamics of seasonal influenza virus epidemic establishment and spread in the United States (US) each season. By reconstructing transmission lineages from seasonal influenza virus genomes collected in the US from 2014 to 2023, we show that most epidemics consisted of multiple distinct transmission lineages. Spread of these lineages exhibited strong spatiotemporal hierarchies and lineage size was correlated with timing of lineage establishment in the US. Mechanistic epidemic simulations suggest that mobility-driven competition between lineages determined the extent of individual lineages' geographical spread. Based on phylogeographic analyses and epidemic simulations, lineage-specific movement patterns were dominated by human commuting behavior. These results suggest that given the locations of early-season epidemic sparks, the topology of inter-state human mobility yields repeatable patterns of which influenza viruses will circulate where, but the importance of short-term processes limits predictability of regional and national epidemics.

4.
Virus Evol ; 10(1): veae030, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38808037

ABSTRACT

Since the influenza pandemic in 1968, influenza A(H3N2) viruses have become endemic. In this state, H3N2 viruses continuously evolve to overcome immune pressure as a result of prior infection or vaccination, as is evident from the accumulation of mutations in the surface glycoproteins hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). However, phylogenetic studies have also demonstrated ongoing evolution in the influenza A(H3N2) virus RNA polymerase complex genes. The RNA polymerase complex of seasonal influenza A(H3N2) viruses produces mRNA for viral protein synthesis and replicates the negative sense viral RNA genome (vRNA) through a positive sense complementary RNA intermediate (cRNA). Presently, the consequences and selection pressures driving the evolution of the polymerase complex remain largely unknown. Here, we characterize the RNA polymerase complex of seasonal influenza A(H3N2) viruses representative of nearly 50 years of influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution. The H3N2 polymerase complex is a reassortment of human and avian influenza virus genes. We show that since 1968, influenza A(H3N2) viruses have increased the transcriptional activity of the polymerase complex while retaining a close balance between mRNA, vRNA, and cRNA levels. Interestingly, the increased polymerase complex activity did not result in increased replicative ability on differentiated human airway epithelial (HAE) cells. We hypothesize that the evolutionary increase in polymerase complex activity of influenza A(H3N2) viruses may compensate for the reduced HA receptor binding and avidity that is the result of the antigenic evolution of influenza A(H3N2) viruses.

5.
One Health Outlook ; 6(1): 5, 2024 Apr 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38561784

ABSTRACT

The European Scientific Working Group on Influenza (ESWI) held the 9th ESWI Influenza Conference in Valencia from 17-20 September 2023. Here we provide a summary of twelve key presentations, covering major topics on influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) including: infection processes beyond acute respiratory disease, long COVID, vaccines against influenza and RSV, the implications of the potential extinction of influenza B virus Yamagata lineage, and the threats posed by zoonotic highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses.

6.
Hum Vaccin Immunother ; 20(1): 2336357, 2024 Dec 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38619079

ABSTRACT

Influenza remains a public health threat, partly due to suboptimal effectiveness of vaccines. One factor impacting vaccine effectiveness is strain mismatch, occurring when vaccines no longer match circulating strains due to antigenic drift or the incorporation of inadvertent (eg, egg-adaptive) mutations during vaccine manufacturing. In this review, we summarize the evidence for antigenic drift of circulating viruses and/or egg-adaptive mutations occurring in vaccine strains during the 2011-2020 influenza seasons. Evidence suggests that antigenic drift led to vaccine mismatch during four seasons and that egg-adaptive mutations caused vaccine mismatch during six seasons. These findings highlight the need for alternative vaccine development platforms. Recently, vaccines based on mRNA technology have demonstrated efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 and respiratory syncytial virus and are under clinical evaluation for seasonal influenza. We discuss the potential for mRNA vaccines to address strain mismatch, as well as new multi-component strategies using the mRNA platform to improve vaccine effectiveness.


Subject(s)
Influenza Vaccines , Influenza, Human , Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human , Humans , Influenza Vaccines/genetics , mRNA Vaccines , Seasons , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , RNA, Messenger/genetics
7.
BMJ Open ; 14(2): e078674, 2024 Feb 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38417953

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To determine the most epidemiologically effective and cost-effective school-based SARS-CoV-2 antigen-detection rapid diagnostic test (Ag-RDT) self-testing strategies among teachers and students. DESIGN: Mathematical modelling and economic evaluation. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Simulated school and community populations were parameterised to Brazil, Georgia and Zambia, with SARS-CoV-2 self-testing strategies targeted to teachers and students in primary and secondary schools under varying epidemic conditions. INTERVENTIONS: SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDT self-testing strategies for only teachers or teachers and students-only symptomatically or symptomatically and asymptomatically at 5%, 10%, 40% or 100% of schools at varying frequencies. OUTCOME MEASURES: Outcomes were assessed in terms of total infections and symptomatic days among teachers and students, as well as total infections and deaths within the community under the intervention compared with baseline. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for infections prevented among teachers and students. RESULTS: With respect to both the reduction in infections and total cost, symptomatic testing of all teachers and students appears to be the most cost-effective strategy. Symptomatic testing can prevent up to 69·3%, 64·5% and 75·5% of school infections in Brazil, Georgia and Zambia, respectively, depending on the epidemic conditions, with additional reductions in community infections. ICERs for symptomatic testing range from US$2 to US$19 per additional school infection averted as compared with symptomatic testing of teachers alone. CONCLUSIONS: Symptomatic testing of teachers and students has the potential to cost-effectively reduce a substantial number of school and community infections.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humans , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Self-Testing , Schools
8.
Elife ; 122024 Feb 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38416804

ABSTRACT

It remains poorly understood how SARS-CoV-2 infection influences the physiological host factors important for aerosol transmission. We assessed breathing pattern, exhaled droplets, and infectious virus after infection with Alpha and Delta variants of concern (VOC) in the Syrian hamster. Both VOCs displayed a confined window of detectable airborne virus (24-48 hr), shorter than compared to oropharyngeal swabs. The loss of airborne shedding was linked to airway constriction resulting in a decrease of fine aerosols (1-10 µm) produced, which are suspected to be the major driver of airborne transmission. Male sex was associated with increased viral replication and virus shedding in the air. Next, we compared the transmission efficiency of both variants and found no significant differences. Transmission efficiency varied mostly among donors, 0-100% (including a superspreading event), and aerosol transmission over multiple chain links was representative of natural heterogeneity of exposure dose and downstream viral kinetics. Co-infection with VOCs only occurred when both viruses were shed by the same donor during an increased exposure timeframe (24-48 hr). This highlights that assessment of host and virus factors resulting in a differential exhaled particle profile is critical for understanding airborne transmission.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Cricetinae , Animals , Male , Mesocricetus , Respiratory Aerosols and Droplets
9.
Nat Commun ; 15(1): 591, 2024 Jan 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38238318

ABSTRACT

During the COVID-19 pandemic, levels of seasonal influenza virus circulation were unprecedentedly low, leading to concerns that a lack of exposure to influenza viruses, combined with waning antibody titres, could result in larger and/or more severe post-pandemic seasonal influenza epidemics. However, in most countries the first post-pandemic influenza season was not unusually large and/or severe. Here, based on an analysis of historical influenza virus epidemic patterns from 2002 to 2019, we show that historic lulls in influenza virus circulation had relatively minor impacts on subsequent epidemic size and that epidemic size was more substantially impacted by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in prior seasons. From measurements of antibody levels from serum samples collected each year from 2017 to 2021, we show that the rate of waning of antibody titres against influenza virus during the pandemic was smaller than assumed in predictive models. Taken together, these results partially explain why the re-emergence of seasonal influenza virus epidemics was less dramatic than anticipated and suggest that influenza virus epidemic dynamics are not currently amenable to multi-season prediction.


Subject(s)
Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype , Influenza, Human , Viruses , Humans , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Seasons , Pandemics
10.
Nat Commun ; 14(1): 7981, 2023 Dec 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38042923

ABSTRACT

Oral antivirals have the potential to reduce the public health burden of COVID-19. However, now that we have exited the emergency-phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, declining SARS-CoV-2 clinical testing rates (average testing rates = [Formula: see text]10 tests/100,000 people/day in low-and-middle income countries; <100 tests/100,000 people/day in high-income countries; September 2023) make the development of effective test-and-treat programs challenging. We used an agent-based model to investigate how testing rates and strategies affect the use and effectiveness of oral antiviral test-to-treat programs in four country archetypes of different income levels and demographies. We find that in the post-emergency-phase of the pandemic, in countries where low testing rates are driven by limited testing capacity, significant population-level impact of test-and-treat programs can only be achieved by both increasing testing rates and prioritizing individuals with greater risk of severe disease. However, for all countries, significant reductions in severe cases with antivirals are only possible if testing rates were substantially increased with high willingness of people to seek testing. Comparing the potential population-level reductions in severe disease outcomes of test-to-treat programs and vaccination shows that test-and-treat strategies are likely substantially more resource intensive requiring very high levels of testing (≫100 tests/100,000 people/day) and antiviral use suggesting that vaccination should be a higher priority.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humans , COVID-19/diagnosis , Pandemics/prevention & control , Public Health , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , COVID-19 Testing
11.
Nat Rev Microbiol ; 21(12): 805-817, 2023 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37532870

ABSTRACT

Seasonal influenza viruses cause recurring global epidemics by continually evolving to escape host immunity. The viral constraints and host immune responses that limit and drive the evolution of these viruses are increasingly well understood. However, it remains unclear how most of these advances improve the capacity to reduce the impact of seasonal influenza viruses on human health. In this Review, we synthesize recent progress made in understanding the interplay between the evolution of immunity induced by previous infections or vaccination and the evolution of seasonal influenza viruses driven by the heterogeneous accumulation of antibody-mediated immunity in humans. We discuss the functional constraints that limit the evolution of the viruses, the within-host evolutionary processes that drive the emergence of new virus variants, as well as current and prospective options for influenza virus control, including the viral and immunological barriers that must be overcome to improve the effectiveness of vaccines and antiviral drugs.


Subject(s)
Influenza, Human , Orthomyxoviridae , Humans , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Seasons , Prospective Studies , Orthomyxoviridae/genetics , Vaccination
12.
J Int AIDS Soc ; 26(7): e26124, 2023 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37463870

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: South African youth and adolescents face a high burden of (Sexually Transmitted Infections) STIs, HIV and unintended pregnancies, but uptake of services remains low. To address this, tailored and scalable interventions are urgently needed. We developed a framework to fill the gap and translate the impact of facility-level attributes into a cost-effectiveness analysis for increasing HIV/contraceptive service uptake in adolescents using a discrete choice experiment (DCE). METHODS: We used a DCE (n = 805) conducted in Gauteng, South Africa, which found that staff attitude, confidentiality, Wi-Fi, subsidized food, afternoon hours and youth-only services were preferred attributes of health services. Based on this, we simulated the uptake of services adapted for these preferences. We divided preferences into modifiable attributes that could readily be adapted (e.g. Wi-Fi), and challenging to modify (more nuanced attributes that are more challenging to cost and evaluate): staff attitude and estimated the incremental change in the uptake of services using adapted services. Costs for modifiable preferences were estimated using data from two clinics in South Africa (2019 US$). We determined the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for additional adolescents using services of 15 intervention combinations, and report the results of interventions on the cost-effectiveness frontier. RESULTS: Greatest projected impact on uptake was from friendly and confidential services, both of which were considered challenging to modify (18.5% 95% CI: 13.0%-24.0%; 8.4% 95% CI: 3.0%-14.0%, respectively). Modifiable factors on their own resulted in only small increases in expected uptake. (Food: 2.3% 95% CI: 4.0%-9.00%; Wi-Fi: 3.0% 95% CI: -4.0% to 10.0%; Youth-only services: 0.3% 95% CI: -6.0% to 7.0%; Afternoon services: 0.8% 95% CI: -6.0% to 7.0%). The order of interventions on the cost-effectiveness frontier are Wi-Fi and youth-only services (ICER US$7.01-US$9.78 per additional adolescent utilizing HIV and contraceptive services), Wi-Fi, youth-only services and food (ICER US$9.32-US$10.45), followed by Wi-Fi, youth-only services and extended afternoon hours (ICER US$14.46-US$43.63). CONCLUSIONS: Combining DCE results and costing analyses within a modelling framework provides an innovative way to inform decisions on effective resource utilization. Modifiable preferences, such as Wi-Fi provision, youth-only services and subsidized food, have the potential to cost-effectively increase the proportion of adolescents accessing HIV and contraceptive services.


Subject(s)
HIV Infections , Sexually Transmitted Diseases , Pregnancy , Female , Humans , Adolescent , South Africa , Contraceptive Agents , Cost-Benefit Analysis , HIV Infections/drug therapy , HIV Infections/prevention & control
13.
Virus Evol ; 9(1): vead037, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37325086

ABSTRACT

The influenza A virus (IAV) RNA polymerase is an essential driver of IAV evolution. Mutations that the polymerase introduces into viral genome segments during replication are the ultimate source of genetic variation, including within the three subunits of the IAV polymerase (polymerase basic protein 2, polymerase basic protein 1, and polymerase acidic protein). Evolutionary analysis of the IAV polymerase is complicated, because changes in mutation rate, replication speed, and drug resistance involve epistatic interactions among its subunits. In order to study the evolution of the human seasonal H3N2 polymerase since the 1968 pandemic, we identified pairwise evolutionary relationships among ∼7000 H3N2 polymerase sequences using mutual information (MI), which measures the information gained about the identity of one residue when a second residue is known. To account for uneven sampling of viral sequences over time, we developed a weighted MI (wMI) metric and demonstrate that wMI outperforms raw MI through simulations using a well-sampled severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) dataset. We then constructed wMI networks of the H3N2 polymerase to extend the inherently pairwise wMI statistic to encompass relationships among larger groups of residues. We included hemagglutinin (HA) in the wMI network to distinguish between functional wMI relationships within the polymerase and those potentially due to hitch-hiking on antigenic changes in HA. The wMI networks reveal coevolutionary relationships among residues with roles in replication and encapsidation. Inclusion of HA highlighted polymerase-only subgraphs containing residues with roles in the enzymatic functions of the polymerase and host adaptability. This work provides insight into the factors that drive and constrain the rapid evolution of influenza viruses.

14.
bioRxiv ; 2023 Feb 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36824962

ABSTRACT

The influenza A (IAV) RNA polymerase is an essential driver of IAV evolution. Mutations that the polymerase introduces into viral genome segments during replication are the ultimate source of genetic variation, including within the three subunits of the IAV polymerase (PB2, PB1, and PA). Evolutionary analysis of the IAV polymerase is complicated, because changes in mutation rate, replication speed, and drug resistance involve epistatic interactions among its subunits. In order to study the evolution of the human seasonal H3N2 polymerase since the 1968 pandemic, we identified pairwise evolutionary relationships among ∻7000 H3N2 polymerase sequences using mutual information (MI), which measures the information gained about the identity of one residue when a second residue is known. To account for uneven sampling of viral sequences over time, we developed a weighted MI metric (wMI) and demonstrate that wMI outperforms raw MI through simulations using a well-sampled SARS-CoV-2 dataset. We then constructed wMI networks of the H3N2 polymerase to extend the inherently pairwise wMI statistic to encompass relationships among larger groups of residues. We included HA in the wMI network to distinguish between functional wMI relationships within the polymerase and those potentially due to hitchhiking on antigenic changes in HA. The wMI networks reveal coevolutionary relationships among residues with roles in replication and encapsidation. Inclusion of HA highlighted polymerase-only subgraphs containing residues with roles in the enzymatic functions of the polymerase and host adaptability. This work provides insight into the factors that drive and constrain the rapid evolution of influenza viruses.

15.
Nat Genet ; 55(1): 26-33, 2023 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36624344

ABSTRACT

The first step in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance is testing to identify people who are infected. However, global testing rates are falling as we emerge from the acute health emergency and remain low in many low- and middle-income countries (mean = 27 tests per 100,000 people per day). We simulated COVID-19 epidemics in a prototypical low- and middle-income country to investigate how testing rates, sampling strategies and sequencing proportions jointly impact surveillance outcomes, and showed that low testing rates and spatiotemporal biases delay time to detection of new variants by weeks to months and can lead to unreliable estimates of variant prevalence, even when the proportion of samples sequenced is increased. Accordingly, investments in wider access to diagnostics to support testing rates of approximately 100 tests per 100,000 people per day could enable more timely detection of new variants and reliable estimates of variant prevalence. The performance of global SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance programs is fundamentally limited by access to diagnostic testing.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Epidemics , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/genetics , Genomics , Diagnostic Techniques and Procedures , COVID-19 Testing
16.
medRxiv ; 2023 Oct 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36238715

ABSTRACT

Oral antivirals have the potential to reduce the public health burden of COVID-19. However, now that we have exited the emergency phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, declining SARS-CoV-2 clinical testing rates (average testing rates = ≪10 tests/100,000 people/day in low- and-middle income countries; <100 tests/100,000 people/day in high-income countries; September 2023) make the development of effective test-and-treat programs challenging. We used an agent-based model to investigate how testing rates and strategies affect the use and effectiveness of oral antiviral test-to-treat programs in four country archetypes of different income levels and demographies. We find that in the post-emergency phase of the pandemic, in countries where low testing rates are driven by limited testing capacity, significant population-level impact of test-and-treat programs can only be achieved by both increasing testing rates and prioritizing individuals with greater risk of severe disease. However, for all countries, significant reductions in severe cases with antivirals are only possible if testing rates were substantially increased with high willingness of people to seek testing. Comparing the potential population-level reductions in severe disease outcomes of test-to-treat programs and vaccination shows that test-and-treat strategies are likely substantially more resource intensive requiring very high levels of testing (>>100 tests/100,000 people/day) and antiviral use suggesting that vaccination should be a higher priority.

17.
bioRxiv ; 2023 Oct 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36032963

ABSTRACT

It remains poorly understood how SARS-CoV-2 infection influences the physiological host factors important for aerosol transmission. We assessed breathing pattern, exhaled droplets, and infectious virus after infection with Alpha and Delta variants of concern (VOC) in the Syrian hamster. Both VOCs displayed a confined window of detectable airborne virus (24-48 h), shorter than compared to oropharyngeal swabs. The loss of airborne shedding was linked to airway constriction resulting in a decrease of fine aerosols (1-10µm) produced, which are suspected to be the major driver of airborne transmission. Male sex was associated with increased viral replication and virus shedding in the air. Next, we compared the transmission efficiency of both variants and found no significant differences. Transmission efficiency varied mostly among donors, 0-100% (including a superspreading event), and aerosol transmission over multiple chain links was representative of natural heterogeneity of exposure dose and downstream viral kinetics. Co-infection with VOCs only occurred when both viruses were shed by the same donor during an increased exposure timeframe (24-48 h). This highlights that assessment of host and virus factors resulting in a differential exhaled particle profile is critical for understanding airborne transmission.

18.
Clin Infect Dis ; 76(3): e965-e972, 2023 02 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35666515

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Modeling studies have concluded that 60-80% of tuberculosis (TB) infections result from reinfection of previously infected persons. The annual rate of infection (ARI), a standard measure of the risk of TB infection in a community, may not accurately reflect the true risk of infection among previously infected persons. We constructed a model of infection and reinfection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis to explore the predictive accuracy of ARI and its effect on disease incidence. METHODS: We created a deterministic simulation of the progression from TB infection to disease and simulated the prevalence of TB infection at the beginning and end of a theoretical year of infection. We considered 10 disease prevalence scenarios ranging from 100/100 000 to 1000/100 000 in simulations where TB exposure probability was homogeneous across the whole simulated population or heterogeneously stratified into high-risk and low-risk groups. ARI values, rates of progression from infection to disease, and the effect of multiple reinfections were obtained from published studies. RESULTS: With homogeneous exposure risk, observed ARI values produced expected numbers of infections. However, when heterogeneous risk was introduced, observed ARI was seen to underestimate true ARI by 25-58%. Of the cases of TB disease that occurred, 36% were among previously infected persons when prevalence was 100/100 000, increasing to 79% of cases when prevalence was 1000/100 000. CONCLUSIONS: Measured ARI underestimates true ARI as a result of heterogeneous population mixing. The true force of infection in a community may be greater than previously appreciated. Hyperendemic communities likely contribute disproportionally to the global TB disease burden.


Subject(s)
Latent Tuberculosis , Mycobacterium tuberculosis , Tuberculosis , Humans , Reinfection , Incidence , Tuberculosis/epidemiology , Latent Tuberculosis/epidemiology
19.
Clin Infect Dis ; 76(4): 620-630, 2023 02 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36208211

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Increasing the availability of antigen rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is key to alleviating global SARS-CoV-2 testing inequity (median testing rate in December 2021-March 2022 when the Omicron variant was spreading in multiple countries: high-income countries = 600 tests/100 000 people/day; LMICs = 14 tests/100 000 people/day). However, target testing levels and effectiveness of asymptomatic community screening to impact SARS-CoV-2 transmission in LMICs are unclear. METHODS: We used Propelling Action for Testing and Treating (PATAT), an LMIC-focused agent-based model to simulate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemics, varying the amount of Ag-RDTs available for symptomatic testing at healthcare facilities and asymptomatic community testing in different social settings. We assumed that testing was a function of access to healthcare facilities and availability of Ag-RDTs. We explicitly modelled symptomatic testing demand from individuals without SARS-CoV-2 and measured impact based on the number of infections averted due to test-and-isolate. RESULTS: Testing symptomatic individuals yields greater benefits than any asymptomatic community testing strategy until most symptomatic individuals who sought testing have been tested. Meeting symptomatic testing demand likely requires at least 200-400 tests/100 000 people/day, on average, as symptomatic testing demand is highly influenced by individuals without SARS-CoV-2. After symptomatic testing demand is satisfied, excess tests to proactively screen for asymptomatic infections among household members yield the largest additional infections averted. CONCLUSIONS: Testing strategies aimed at reducing transmission should prioritize symptomatic testing and incentivizing test-positive individuals to adhere to isolation to maximize effectiveness.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humans , COVID-19/prevention & control , Developing Countries , COVID-19 Testing , Rapid Diagnostic Tests , Zambia
20.
Int J Mol Sci ; 25(1)2023 Dec 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38203480

ABSTRACT

Pneumonia caused by multi-drug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (MDR-Kpneu) poses a major public health threat, especially to immunocompromised or hospitalized patients. This study aimed to determine the immunostimulatory effect of the Toll-like receptor 5 ligand flagellin on primary human lung epithelial cells during infection with MDR-Kpneu. Human bronchial epithelial (HBE) cells, grown on an air-liquid interface, were inoculated with MDR-Kpneu on the apical side and treated during ongoing infection with antibiotics (meropenem) and/or flagellin on the basolateral and apical side, respectively; the antimicrobial and inflammatory effects of flagellin were determined in the presence or absence of meropenem. In the absence of meropenem, flagellin treatment of MDR-Kpneu-infected HBE cells increased the expression of antibacterial defense genes and the secretion of chemokines; moreover, supernatants of flagellin-exposed HBE cells activated blood neutrophils and monocytes. However, in the presence of meropenem, flagellin did not augment these responses compared to meropenem alone. Flagellin did not impact the outgrowth of MDR-Kpneu. Flagellin enhances antimicrobial gene expression and chemokine release by the MDR-Kpneu-infected primary human bronchial epithelium, which is associated with the release of mediators that activate neutrophils and monocytes. Topical flagellin therapy may have potential to boost immune responses in the lung during pneumonia.


Subject(s)
Klebsiella , Pneumonia , Humans , Flagellin/pharmacology , Meropenem/pharmacology , Epithelial Cells , Anti-Bacterial Agents/pharmacology
SELECTION OF CITATIONS
SEARCH DETAIL