Violent conflict and the demand for healthcare: How armed conflict reduces trust, instills fear, and increases child mortality.

What are the health effects of violent conflict? It is well known that wars kill civilians away from the battlefield and long after the fighting has stopped. Yet why this happens remains only partially understood. While we have good evidence that factors such as the destruction of infrastructure, political neglect, and the out-migration of health workers - what may be called supply-side factors - negatively affect health outcomes, we know much less about how violence shapes the attitudes and behavior towards healthcare use among civilians exposed to violent conflict - what may be called demand-side factors. Here, I theorize that exposure to violence suppresses civilian demand for healthcare through two mediating channels - mistrust of government institutions and fear of future violence - with adverse consequences for health outcomes, particularly child health. To test this theory empirically, I combine information from over 80,000 interviews conducted in 22 conflict-affected countries in Africa with individual- and context-level measures of exposure to violent conflict. Exposure to violence is associated with significantly lower levels of political trust and increased fear of future violence, which in turn predict lower healthcare utilization, lower immunization rates, and higher infant and child mortality. To fully address the health consequences of armed conflict, it is essential that we better understand the attitudinal and behavioral correlates of exposure to violence.

How COVID-19 affects voting for incumbents: Evidence from local elections in France.

How do voters react to an ongoing natural threat? Do voters sanction or reward incumbents even when incumbents cannot be held accountable because an unforeseeable natural disaster is unfolding? We address this question by investigating voters' reactions to the early spread of COVID-19 in the 2020 French municipal elections. Using a novel, fine-grained measure of the circulation of the virus based on excess-mortality data, we find that support for incumbents increased in areas that were particularly hard hit by the virus. Incumbents from both left and right gained votes in areas more strongly affected by COVID-19. We provide suggestive evidence for two mechanisms that can explain our findings: an emotional channel related to feelings of fear and anxiety, and a prospective-voting channel, related to the ability of incumbents to act more swiftly against the diffusion of the virus than challengers.

Terrorism and child mortality.

How does terrorism affect child mortality? We use geo-coded data on terrorism and spatially disaggregated data on child mortality to study the relationship between both variables for 52 African countries between 2000 and 2017 at the 0.5 × 0.5° grid level. Our estimates suggest that moderate increases in terrorism are linked to several thousand additional annual deaths of children under the age of five. A panel event-study points to economic effects that are larger and compound over time. Interrogating our data, we show that the direct impact of terrorism tends to be very small. Instead, we theorize that terrorism causes child mortality primarily by triggering adverse behavioral responses by parents, medical workers, and policymakers. We provide tentative evidence in support of this argument.

Spiritual practices predict migration behavior.

Each year, several thousand migrants from sub-Saharan Africa lose their lives attempting to reach Europe's southern shores. Social scientists and policymakers have puzzled over the question of why so many people are willing to take this extremely high risk of dying. Drawing on panel data from over 10,000 individuals collected over the course of 1 year in The Gambia-a country with one of the highest emigration rates in the world-we show that consulting a local healer for spiritual protection predicts migration outcomes. Furthermore, we find that spiritual practices are strongly associated with a decreased perception of one's own risk of dying on the migration journey. Our findings demonstrate the relevance of ideational factors in explaining risky migration choices, and point to spiritual leaders as important interlocutors for migration policy makers.

Gendered Discrimination Against Immigrants: Experimental Evidence.

Recent migration from Muslim-majority countries has sparked discussions across Europe about the supposed threat posed by new immigrants. Young men make up the largest share of newly arrived immigrants and this demographic is often perceived to be particularly threatening. In this article, we compare pro-sociality and trust toward immigrants from Muslim-majority countries, focusing on gender differences in treatment. We study these questions using behavioral games that measure strategic (trusting) and non-strategic (pro-social) behavior. Our data comes from measures embedded in a large survey of residents of Germany's eastern regions, where anti-immigrant sentiments are high. We find that Germans are similarly pro-social toward immigrant men and women in non-strategic situations, but are significantly less likely to trust immigrant men (but not women) in strategic encounters. These findings provide evidence that immigrants' gender can be an important factor conditioning the behavior of the majority population, but also caution that (gendered) ethnic discrimination may be situationally dependent. Future research should further examine the exact mechanisms underlying this variation in discriminatory behavior.

Ethnic diversity, poverty and social trust in Germany: Evidence from a behavioral measure of trust.

Several scholars have concluded that ethnic diversity has negative consequences for social trust. However, recent research has called into question whether ethnic diversity per se has detrimental effects, or whether lower levels of trust in diverse communities simply reflect a higher concentration of less trusting groups, such as poor people, minorities, or immigrants. Drawing upon a nationally representative sample of the German population (GSOEP), we make two contributions to this debate. First, we examine how ethnic diversity at the neighborhood level-specifically the proportion of immigrants in the neighborhood-is linked to social trust focusing on the compositional effect of poverty. Second, in contrast to the majority of current research on ethnic diversity, we use a behavioral measure of trust in combination with fine-grained (zip-code level) contextual measures of ethnic composition and poverty. Furthermore, we are also able to compare the behavioral measure to a standard attitudinal trust question. We find that household poverty partially accounts for lower levels of trust, and that after controlling for income, German and non-German respondents are equally trusting. However, being surrounded by neighbors with immigrant background is also associated with lower levels of social trust.

Threat and parochialism in intergroup relations: lab-in-the-field evidence from rural Georgia.

Competition between groups is widely considered to foster cooperation within groups. Evidence from laboratory experiments hints at the existence of a proximate mechanism by which humans increase their level of cooperation with their ingroup when faced with an external threat. Further work suggests that ingroup cooperation should go along with aggressive behaviour towards the outgroup, although these theories are at odds with others that see high investments in outgroup relations as important means of stabilizing intergroup relations. Surprisingly, few of these arguments have been tested in the field, and existing studies are also limited by the lack of a direct measure of threat perception and aggressive behaviour. This study presents lab-in-the-field results from a rural context where exposure to an ethnic outgroup varies between villages. This context makes it possible to capture levels of threat perception, aggressive behaviour and cooperation without inducing intergroup competition artificially in the laboratory. All concepts are measured behaviourally. In- and outgroup cooperation was measured with a standard public goods game, and a novel experimental protocol was developed that measures perceived threat and aggressive behaviour: the threat game. The results show that levels of perceived threat, ingroup cooperation and aggressive behaviour are higher in regions more strongly exposed to ethnic outsiders. However, exposed regions also show high levels of outgroup cooperation and a concomitant lack of elevated ingroup bias. This pattern is explained by theorizing that communities show parochial altruism when faced with an ethnic outgroup, but balance aggressive behaviour with cooperative offers to diffuse tensions and to keep open channels of mutually beneficial exchange.

Cross-cultural regularities in the cognitive architecture of pride.

Pride occurs in every known culture, appears early in development, is reliably triggered by achievements and formidability, and causes a characteristic display that is recognized everywhere. Here, we evaluate the theory that pride evolved to guide decisions relevant to pursuing actions that enhance valuation and respect for a person in the minds of others. By hypothesis, pride is a neurocomputational program tailored by selection to orchestrate cognition and behavior in the service of: (i) motivating the cost-effective pursuit of courses of action that would increase others' valuations and respect of the individual, (ii) motivating the advertisement of acts or characteristics whose recognition by others would lead them to enhance their evaluations of the individual, and (iii) mobilizing the individual to take advantage of the resulting enhanced social landscape. To modulate how much to invest in actions that might lead to enhanced evaluations by others, the pride system must forecast the magnitude of the evaluations the action would evoke in the audience and calibrate its activation proportionally. We tested this prediction in 16 countries across 4 continents (n = 2,085), for 25 acts and traits. As predicted, the pride intensity for a given act or trait closely tracks the valuations of audiences, local (mean r = +0.82) and foreign (mean r = +0.75). This relationship is specific to pride and does not generalize to other positive emotions that coactivate with pride but lack its audience-recalibrating function.