Adaptation of FDMT to include process-based models and consider regional aspects following radionuclide deposition events.

Experience from earlier nuclear accidents has clearly shown the need for maintaining and developing appropriate modelling capabilities. Dealing with complex issues such as human exposure following a nuclear accident necessitates the implementation of a set of interconnected models such as FDMT. FDMT is an integrated module within the two main European decision support systems for radiological emergency preparedness, ARGOS and JRODOS, to simulate the transfer of radionuclides along terrestrial food chains and to predict their activity concentrations in foodstuffs. In order to make the module more fit-for-purpose, FDMT has been implemented in a new modelling platform (ECOLEGO) which provides a high degree of flexibility with regard to conducting developmental work. This paper presents improvements in FDMT further through either the incorporation of new models or further elaboration of existing ones, as well as updates in default parameters. Models have also been made more fit-for-purpose through consideration of regional-specific parameters. Specific improvements include modelling developments related to dry deposition, radioactive particle weathering, radiocaesium transfer influenced by soil characteristics and, for a region-specific case, animal uptake. In addition, the paper presents new pathways and parameters (and updated values) to be considered for making FDMT more adapted for Norwegian conditions. Overall, the improvements made in the present work should significantly reduce the uncertainties associated with the outputs of the FDMT models.

Transfer of radionuclides through ecological systems: Lessons learned from 10 years of research within CERAD CoE.

Norway's Centre of Excellence for Environmental Radioactivity (CERAD) research programme included studies on transfer of radionuclides in various ecosystems within the context of environmental risk assessment. This article provides highlights from 10 years of research within this topic and summarises lessons learnt from the process. The scope has been extensive, involving laboratory-based experiments, field studies and the implementation of transfer models quantifying radionuclide uptake directly from the surrounding environment and via food chains. Field studies have had a global span and have, inter alia, covered sites contaminated with radionuclides associated with particles, ranging from nanoparticles to fragments, due to nuclear accidents (e.g., Chornobyl and Fukushima accidents) along with sites having enhanced levels of naturally occurring radioactive materials (e.g., Fen Complex in Norway and Taboshar in Tajikistan). Focus has been put on speciation and kinetics in determining radionuclide behavior and fate as well as on the influence of environmental factors that are potentially critical for the transfer of radionuclides. In particular, seasonal factors have been shown to greatly affect the dynamics of 137Cs and 90Sr bioaccumulation and loss in freshwater fish. The work has led to the collation of organism-specific (i) parameters important for kinetic models, i.e., uptake and depuration rates, and (ii) steady-state concentration ratios, CRs, where the use of stable analogue CRs as proxies for radionuclides has been brought into question. Dynamic models have been developed and applied for radiocaesium transfer to reindeer, radionuclide transfer in Arctic marine systems, transfer to fish via water and feed and commonly used agricultural food-chain transfer models applied in the context of nuclear emergency preparedness. The CERAD programme should contribute substantially to the scientific community's understanding of radionuclide transfer in environmental systems.

Modeling the Dynamic Behavior of Radiocesium in Grazing Reindeer.

Radiocesium contamination in Norwegian reindeer and the factors influencing contamination levels have been studied for more than 50 years, providing significant amounts of data. Monitoring contamination in reindeer is of utmost importance for reindeer husbandry and herders in Norway and will need to be studied for many years because of the persistent contamination levels due to the 1986 Chernobyl fallout. This paper presents a novel dynamic model that takes advantage of the large data sets that have been collected for reindeer monitoring to estimate 137Cs in reindeer meat at any given time. The model has been validated using detailed 137Cs data from one of the herds most affected by the fallout. The model basis includes detailed 137Cs soil data from aerial surveys, GPS-based knowledge of reindeer migration, and local soil-to-vegetation 137Cs transfer information. The validation exercise shows that the model satisfactorily predicts both short- and long-term changes in 137Cs concentrations in reindeer meat and suggests that the model will be a useful tool in estimating seasonal changes and evaluating possible remedial actions in case of a future fallout event.

Caesium-137 in mountain flora with emphasis on reindeer's diet - Spatial and temporal trends.

The present study summarizes three decades of studies on 137Cs transfer to various species of lichens, graminoids, herbs and woody plants across a ~3000 km2 area used as mountain pasture for reindeer and other ruminants. The investigation comprised of field studies covering the period 2011-2016, and a compilation of studies and data for the preceding period (1986-2010). Altogether, more than 700 individual vegetation samples were considered. For lichens, relatively fast decrease in contamination levels was observed during the first decade after the Chernobyl fallout (ecological half-time of about 3 years). For later years there seems to be a continuous re-contamination which results in a "steady state" where time-trends are mainly governed by physical decay of 137Cs. For green plants, decline in transfer factors (TF) (i.e. the ratio between activity concentration in vegetation and activity density in soil) during the period 1986-2012 was not as pronounced as for lichens: Some species showed significant decrease with time, while others did not. 25-30 years after the Chernobyl accident, 137Cs levels in lichens and green plants were significantly dependent on the levels in soil (R2 between 0.53 and 0.57), but there were also some significant differences in transfer between sampling sites. Moreover, marked variability in TFs was found between different plant species growing at the same site, whereas such differences were not found for reindeer lichens.

Elevated natural radioactivity in undisturbed forest and mountain areas of arctic Norway - local geology, soil characteristics, and transfer to biota.

This study deals with the geology in areas close to a large unexploited uranium deposit and the impact of bedrock characteristics on levels of radionuclides and other elements in soil and biota. Factors influencing soil inventory and ecosystem transfer are discussed, focussing on 238U, 226Ra, and 210Pb. Field work was carried out in Salangen Valley in Northern Norway. Sampling stations for soil and biota covered different habitats - grassland, birch forest and low alpine heathland. The geological survey confirmed uranium-bearing minerals in granitic gneiss and pegmatites. There was large variation in the local occurrence of uranium, reflecting the irregular nature of the pegmatite. Activity concentrations of 238U, 226Ra, and 210Pb in surface soil were elevated at sites close to U-enhanced bedrock, compared to sites with other types of bedrock. Particularly high soil levels were found for 226Ra and 210Pb, whereas activity concentrations of 238U were more variable, depending of local soil characteristics. Levels of other natural radionuclides (40K, 232Th) merely increased with soil mineral content, and concentrations of heavy metals were generally low at all sites. External dose rate (1 m above ground surface) was closely correlated with 226Ra levels in soil. Plant levels of 238U and 226Ra varied by several orders of magnitude depending on soil level and plant species, whereas plant levels of 210Pb and 210Po were largely affected by aerial fallout. Berries generally contained lower levels of 238U and 226Ra than green plant parts. As was the case for plants, the levels of 238U in earthworms were strongly correlated with the respective concentrations in the soil. Soil-to-plant transfer was markedly higher for 226Ra than for 238U. For both radionuclides, a positive correlation was found between concentration ratios of V. myrtillus (heath) and soil organic matter content. The 238U concentration ratios for earthworms were generally two orders of magnitude higher than for plants.

Airborne radiometric survey of a Chernobyl-contaminated mountain area in Norway - using ground-level measurements for validation.

An airborne radiometric survey can be an efficient way to investigate contamination of large areas after nuclear accidents. In the current study, a helicopter borne gamma ray spectrometry survey was carried out in a vast mountainous area in Norway, where the contamination from the 1986 Chernobyl accident still affects animal husbandry more than 30 years after the fallout occurred. The 137Cs activity densities provided by the aerial survey was validated using various independent ground-based measurements - including soil samples and in situ measurements (at 1 m above ground). Despite considerable small-scale heterogeneity, demonstrated by the ground-based measurements, strong correlations were obtained between the results from the aerial survey - after introducing more detailed instrument calibration and spectre analysis - and the ground-level data. Adjusted R2 values were around 0.9, and linear correlation coefficients close to unity.

Fallout 137Cs in reindeer herders in Arctic Norway.

Reindeer herders in the Arctic were among the most heavily exposed populations to the global fallout from nuclear weapons testing in the 1950s and 1960s, due to high transfer of radionuclides in the lichens-reindeer-human food chain. Annual studies of (137)Cs in reindeer herders in Kautokeino, Norway, were initiated in 1965 to monitor radiation doses and follow environmental (137)Cs behavior. The (137)Cs concentrations declined from the peak in 1965 with effective half-times of 6-8 years, only interrupted by a temporary doubling in levels from 1986 to 1987 due to the Chernobyl fallout. During the period of 1950-2010 an average herder received an integrated effective dose from incorporated (137)Cs of about 18 mSv. This dose represents an insignificant increase in the risk for developing cancer. Health studies even show a significantly lower cancer incidence among Sámis and reindeer herders in northern Norway compared to other populations in the same area.

Averted doses to Norwegian Sámi reindeer herders after the Chernobyl accident.

The Chernobyl fallout is an enduring challenge to reindeer husbandry in Norway, and South Sámi reindeer herders in central and southern Norway are as contaminated by (137)Cs as inhabitants close to Chernobyl. Therefore, Norwegian authorities continuously recommend to these reindeer herders the use of countermeasures to reduce their intake of (137)Cs. In this study, the authors have applied data on contamination levels in reindeer, results of dietary surveys, and whole body monitoring data in low and high contaminated areas to estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures and resulting averted doses to the reindeer herders. In the most contaminated area, the various countermeasures applied reduced radiocesium ingestion doses during 1986-2009 by about 73%, to an integrated dose of about 17 mSv. However, to comply with the recommended (137)Cs ingestion dose limit of 1 mSv y(-1), the study indicates that reindeer herders in the most contaminated areas will need to carry on with their countermeasures for another 10-15 y. Furthermore, the study indicates that whole body monitoring is an important tool to assess individual doses and countermeasure effectiveness in long-term management of a contamination situation and that such monitoring may be required to reach long-term reference levels.

Revision of deposition and weathering parameters for the ingestion dose module (ECOSYS) of the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems.

The ECOSYS model is the ingestion dose model integrated in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems for nuclear emergency management. The parameters used in this model have however not been updated in recent years, where the level of knowledge on various environmental processes has increased considerably. A Nordic work group has carried out a series of evaluations of the general validity of current ECOSYS default parameters. This paper specifically discusses the parameter revisions required with respect to the modelling of deposition and natural weathering of contaminants on agricultural crops, to enable the trustworthy prognostic modelling that is essential to ensure justification and optimisation of countermeasure strategies. New modelling approaches are outlined, since it was found that current ECOSYS approaches for deposition and natural weathering could lead to large prognostic errors.

Effect of Nordic diets on ECOSYS model predictions of ingestion doses.

The ECOSYS model is used to estimate ingestion dose in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems for nuclear emergency management. It is recommended that nation-specific values for several parameters are used in the model. However, this is generally overlooked when the systems are used in practice. We have estimated first year ingestion doses in two scenarios with wet and dry deposition of (137)Cs, using the ECOSYS model. We calculated doses for each country using national dietary data while keeping all other parameters at their default values. These dose calculations were then used to estimate the variation in ingestion doses resulting from the variation in the diets only. The dietary data demonstrated that the average consumption of milk, meat and vegetables varied by a factor of 2-4 among the Nordic countries. For both scenarios, the ingestion doses varied by a factor of about 2, among the countries. For all countries, the model predictions were most sensitive to changes in milk, beef and wheat consumption. The results demonstrate that recent and reliable dietary data are required to reliably estimate ingestion doses.