Using Real-world Data to Define a Validated Nomogram for Advanced Bladder Cancer Patients Who Respond to Immunotherapy.

AIMS: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are used in incurable urothelial cancers, both in chemo-naïve and platinum-refractory patients. Efficacy and toxicity data published outside controlled clinical trials are limited. We report overall survival, progression-free survival and toxicities of ICIs in locally advanced (LABC) or metastatic bladder cancer (MBC). We aimed to develop and validate a prognostic model for these patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A multicentre real-world individual patient-level data study (n = 272) evaluating ICIs in the first-line platinum-ineligible or platinum-refractory setting for LABC/MBC between March 2017 and February 2020 was undertaken. Cox regression analyses evaluated the association of prognostic factors with overall survival. Data were split to create a training (n = 208) and validation (n = 64) cohort. The backward elimination method with a P-value cut-off of 0.05 was used to develop a reduced prognostic model using the training data set. The concordance index and assessment of observed versus predicted survival probabilities were used to evaluate the final model. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 18.9 (15.8-21.5) months. The median overall survival and progression-free survival in the training cohort were 9.2 (95% confidence interval 7.4-10.5) and 4.5 months (3.5-5.7), respectively. The most common grade 1/2 adverse events recorded were fatigue (47.8%) and infection (19.9%). Five key prognostic factors found in the training set were low haemoglobin, high neutrophil count, choice of immunotherapy favouring pembrolizumab, presence of liver metastasis and steroid use within 30 days of treatment. The concordance index for the training and validation cohorts was 0.66 (standard error = 0.05) and 0.64 (standard error = 0.04), respectively, for the final model. A nomogram was developed to calculate the expected survival probabilities based on risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Real-world data were used to produce a validated prognostic model for overall survival in LABC/MBC treated with ICIs. This model could assist in patient stratification, interpreting and framing future trials incorporating PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors in LABC/MBC.

International cancer seminars: a focus on kidney cancer.

Recent years have seen important advances in our understanding of the etiology, biology and genetics of kidney cancer. To summarize important achievements and identify prominent research questions that remain, a workshop was organized by IARC and the US NCI. A series of 'difficult questions' were formulated, which should be given future priority in the areas of population, genomic and clinical research.

Changes in tumour vessel density upon treatment with anti-angiogenic agents: relationship with response and resistance to therapy.

BACKGROUND: We examine how changes in a surrogate marker of tumour vessel density correlate with response and resistance to anti-angiogenic therapy. METHODS: In metastatic renal cancer patients treated with anti-angiogenic tyrosine kinase inhibitors, arterial phase contrast-enhanced computed tomography was used to simultaneously measure changes in: (a) tumour size, and (b) tumour enhancement (a surrogate marker of tumour vessel density) within individual lesions. RESULTS: No correlation between baseline tumour enhancement and lesion shrinkage was observed, but a reduction in tumour enhancement on treatment was strongly correlated with reduction in lesion size (r=0.654, P<0.0001). However, close examination of individual metastases revealed different types of response: (1) good vascular response with significant tumour shrinkage, (2) good vascular response with stabilisation of disease, (3) poor vascular response with stabilisation of disease and (4) poor vascular response with progression. Moreover, contrasting responses between different lesions within the same patient were observed. We also assessed rebound vascularisation in tumours that acquired resistance to treatment. The amplitude of rebound vascularisation was greater in lesions that had a better initial response to therapy (P=0.008). INTERPRETATION: Changes in a surrogate marker of tumour vessel density correlate with response and resistance to anti-angiogenic therapy. The data provide insight into the mechanisms that underlie response and resistance to this class of agent.

Prognostic utility of pre-operative circulating osteopontin, carbonic anhydrase IX and CRP in renal cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Objectively measured circulating biomarkers of prognosis complementing existing clinicopathological models are needed in renal cell carcinoma (RCC). METHODS: Blood samples collected from 216 RCC patients in Leeds before nephrectomy (median follow-up 7 years) were analysed for C-reactive protein (CRP), osteopontin (OPN) and carbonic anhydrase IX (CA9) and prognostic significance determined. RESULTS: CA9, OPN and CRP were univariately prognostic for overall survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CSS) and disease-free survival (DFS) with CRP and CA9 being independently prognostic for OS/CSS and OS, respectively. Including CA9, OPN and CRP with other conventional prognostic factors gave a superior predictive capacity when compared with a previously published pre-operative clinical nomogram (Karakiewicz et al, 2009). Osteopontin outperformed this nomogram and the post-operative SSIGN score for OS but not for CSS, being significantly predictive for non-cancer deaths. Osteopontin, CRP and CA9 outperformed stage (c-index 76% compared with 70% for stage) and OPN or CA9 identified several subsets of poor prognosis patients including in T1 patients, who may benefit from adjuvant therapy and increased surveillance. CONCLUSION: Circulating CA9, OPN and CRP add value to existing clinicopathological prognostic factors/models and support further studies to investigate their potential use in improving the clinical management of RCC.

Improving the accuracy of pre-operative survival prediction in renal cell carcinoma with C-reactive protein.

BACKGROUND: Validated objective biomarkers are needed for patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) to guide patient management and define high-risk populations for follow-up or for therapeutic purposes. METHODS: Patients undergoing nephrectomy for RCC (n=286 all stages, 84% with conventional clear cell type) were included with a median duration follow-up of 5 years. The prognostic significance of pre-operative haematological and biochemical variables, including C-reactive protein (CRP) values were examined and whether they added additional information to a recently published pre-operative scoring system was determined. RESULTS: C-reactive protein was the most significant predictor of overall survival (OS; χ(2)=50.9, P<0.001). Five-year OS for patients with CRP ≤ 15 mg l(-1) vs >15 mg l(-1) was 72% (95% CI 65-78%) and 33% (95% CI 23-44%), respectively. Similar results were seen for cancer-specific survival (CSS) and disease-free survival. On multivariate analysis, CRP remained highly significant for CSS (χ(2)=17.3, P<0.0001) and OS (χ(2)=9.8, P<0.002), in addition to other pre-operative variables including log of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, red blood cell count and white cell count. C-reactive protein was significant in addition to the pre-operative nomogram score (χ(2)=12.5, P=0.0004 for OS, χ(2)=16.2, P=0.0001 for CSS and χ(2)=8.6, P=0.003 for DFS) and was still significant when other pre-operative variables were included. CONCLUSION: C-reactive protein and other haematological and biochemical variables have independent prognostic significance in RCC and may enhance pre-operative scoring systems.

Association of serum amyloid A protein and peptide fragments with prognosis in renal cancer.

BACKGROUND: In renal cell carcinoma (RCC), the discovery of biomarkers for clinical use is a priority. This study aimed to identify and validate diagnostic and prognostic serum markers using proteomic profiling. METHODS: Pre-operative sera from 119 patients with clear cell RCC and 69 healthy controls was analysed by surface-enhanced laser desorption/ionisation time-of-flight mass spectrometry with stringent in-house quality control and analysis routines. Following identification of one prognostic peak as a fragment of serum amyloid A (SAA), total serum SAA and CRP were also determined by immunoassay for further validation. RESULTS: Several peptides were identified as having independent prognostic but not diagnostic significance on multivariable analysis. One was subsequently identified as a 1525 Da fragment of SAA (hazard ratio (HR)=0.26, 95% CI 0.08-0.85, P=0.026). This was weakly negatively correlated with total SAA, which was also of independent prognostic significance (HR=2.46, 95% CI 1.17-5.15, P=0.017). Both potentially strengthened prognostic models based solely on pre-operative variables. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first description of the prognostic value of this peptide in RCC and demonstrates proof of principle of the approach. The subsequent examination of SAA protein considerably extends previous studies, being the first study to focus solely on pre-operative samples and describing potential clinical utility in pre-operative prognostic models.

Pre-operative urinary cathepsin D is associated with survival in patients with renal cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: No circulating markers are routinely used for renal cancer. The objective of this pilot study was to investigate whether conditioned media (CM) from renal cancer cell lines contains potential biomarkers that, when measured in clinical fluids, have diagnostic or prognostic utility. METHODS: Comparative 2D PAGE profiling of CM from renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and normal renal cultures identified cathepsin D that was subsequently validated in urine samples from 239 patients and healthy and benign disease subjects. RESULTS: Urinary cathepsin D was found to be significantly associated with overall (OS) (hazard ratio, HR, 1.33, 95%CI [1.09-1.63], P=0.005) and cancer-specific survival (HR 1.36, 95%CI [1.07-1.74], P=0.013) in RCC patients on univariate analysis. An optimal cut point (211 ng ml(-1) micromolCr(-1)) around which to stratify patients by OS was determined. Five-year OS equal to/above and below this value was 47.0% (95%CI 35.4%, 62.4%) and 60.9% (48.8%, 76.0%), respectively. On multivariable analysis using pre-operative variables, cathepsin D showed some evidence of independent prognostic value for OS (likelihood ratio test P-value=0.056) although requiring further validation in larger patient numbers with sufficient statistical power to determine independent significance. CONCLUSION: These data establish an important proof of principle and show the potential of proteomics-based studies. Cathepsin D may be of value as a pre-operative urinary biomarker for RCC, alone or in combination.

Intravenous irinotecan plus oral ciclosporin.

We previously reported a phase I study of intravenous irinotecan plus oral ciclosporin, in which dose-limiting diarrhoea was not observed, supporting the hypothesis that pharmacokinetic modulation of irinotecan by ciclosporin may improve its therapeutic index. We now report results of a further 34 patients treated at the recommended dose. A low rate of diarrhoea of grade 3 or above (3%) was again seen, with useful anti-tumour activity. The regimen is to be formally evaluated as part of a future phase III trial.