Estimating Additive Interaction in Two-Stage Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis.

Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis provides important opportunities to study interaction and effect modification for which individual studies often lack power. While previous meta-analyses have commonly focused on multiplicative interaction, additive interaction holds greater relevance for public health and may in certain contexts better reflect biological interaction. Methodological literature on interaction in IPD meta-analysis does not cover additive interaction for models including binary or time-to-event outcomes. We aimed to describe how the Relative Excess Risk due to Interaction (RERI) and other measures of additive interaction or effect modification can be validly estimated within two-stage IPD meta-analysis. First, we explain why direct pooling of study-level RERI estimates may lead to invalid results. Next, we propose a three-step procedure to estimate additive interaction: 1) estimate effects of both exposures and their product term on the outcome within each individual study; 2) pool study-specific estimates using multivariate meta-analysis; 3) estimate an overall RERI and 95% confidence interval based on the pooled effect estimates. We illustrate this procedure by investigating interaction between depression and smoking and risk of smoking-related cancers using data from the PSYchosocial factors and Cancer (PSY-CA) consortium. We discuss implications of this procedure, including the application in meta-analysis based on published data.

Genetic Variance in Heparan Sulfation Is Associated With Salt Sensitivity.

BACKGROUND: High heritability of salt sensitivity suggests an essential role for genetics in the relationship between sodium intake and blood pressure (BP). The role of glycosaminoglycan genes, which are crucial for salinity tolerance, remains to be elucidated. METHODS: Interactions between 54 126 variants in 130 glycosaminoglycan genes and daily sodium excretion on BP were explored in 20 420 EPIC-Norfolk (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer in Norfolk) subjects. The UK Biobank (n=414 132) and the multiethnic HELIUS study (Healthy Life in an Urban Setting; n=2239) were used for validation. Afterward, the urinary glycosaminoglycan composition was studied in HELIUS participants (n=57) stratified by genotype and upon dietary sodium loading in a time-controlled crossover intervention study (n=12). RESULTS: rs2892799 in NDST3 (heparan sulfate N-deacetylase/N-sulfotransferase 3) showed the strongest interaction with sodium on mean arterial pressure (false discovery rate 0.03), with higher mean arterial pressure for the C allele in high sodium conditions. Also, rs9654628 in HS3ST5 (heparan sulfate-glucosamine 3-sulfotransferase 5) showed an interaction with sodium on systolic BP (false discovery rate 0.03). These interactions were multiethnically validated. Stratifying for the rs2892799 genotype showed higher urinary expression of N-sulfated heparan sulfate epitope D0S0 for the T allele. Conversely, upon dietary sodium loading, urinary D0S0 expression was higher in participants with stable BP after sodium loading, and sodium-induced effects on this epitope were opposite in individuals with and without BP response to sodium. CONCLUSIONS: The C allele of rs2892799 in NDST3 exhibits higher BP in high sodium conditions when compared with low sodium conditions, whereas no differences were detected for the T allele. Concomitantly, both alleles demonstrate distinct expressions of D0S0, which, in turn, correlates with sodium-mediated BP elevation. These findings underscore the potential significance of genetic glycosaminoglycan variation in human BP regulation.

Effects of resveratrol on aortic growth in patients with Marfan syndrome: a single-arm open-label multicentre trial.

BACKGROUND: Resveratrol, a dietary supplement that intervenes in cellular metabolism, has been shown to reduce aortic growth rate in a mouse model of Marfan syndrome (MFS), a condition associated in humans with life-threatening aortic complications, often preceded by aortic dilatation. The primary objective of this study was to investigate the effects of resveratrol on aortic growth rate in patients with MFS . METHODS: In this investigator-initiated, single-arm open-label multicentre trial, we analysed resveratrol treatment in adults aged 18-50 years with MFS. The primary endpoint was the change in estimated annual aortic growth at five predefined levels in the thoracic aorta after 1 year of resveratrol treatment, evaluated using a linear mixed model. Aortic diameters were measured by cardiac MRI at three time points to analyse the annual aortic expansion rate before and after initiation of treatment. Additionally, annual aortic growth was compared with growth in a previously conducted losartan randomised clinical trial. RESULTS: 898 patients were screened of which 19% (168/898) patients met the inclusion criteria.36% (61/168) patients signed informed consent and 93% (57/61) aged 37±9 years, of which 28 males (49%) were included in the final analysis of the study. 46% (26/57) had undergone aortic root replacement prior to the study. Aortic root diameters remained stable after 1.2±0.3 years of resveratrol administration. A trend towards a decrease in estimated growth rate (mm/year) was observed in the aortic root (from 0.39±0.06 to -0.13±0.23, p=0.072), ascending aorta (from 0.40±0.05 to -0.01±0.18, p=0.072) and distal descending aorta (from 0.32±0.04 to 0.01±0.14, p=0.072). CONCLUSION: Resveratrol treatment for 1 year may stabilise the aortic growth rate in adult patients with MFS. However, a subsequent randomised clinical trial with a longer follow-up duration and a larger study cohort is needed to establish an actual long-term beneficial effect of this dietary supplement in patients with MFS. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NL66127.018.18.

Digital consults in heart failure care: a randomized controlled trial.

Guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) has clear benefits on morbidity and mortality in patients with heart failure; however, GDMT use remains low. In the multicenter, open-label, investigator-initiated ADMINISTER trial, patients (n = 150) diagnosed with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) were randomized (1:1) to receive usual care or a strategy using digital consults (DCs). DCs contained (1) digital data sharing from patient to clinician (pharmacotherapy use, home-measured vital signs and Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaires); (2) patient education via a text-based e-learning; and (3) guideline recommendations to all treating clinicians. All remotely gathered information was processed into a digital summary that was available to clinicians in the electronic health record before every consult. All patient interactions were standardly conducted remotely. The primary endpoint was change in GDMT score over 12 weeks (ΔGDMT); this GDMT score directly incorporated all non-conditional class 1 indications for HFrEF therapy with equal weights. The ADMINISTER trial met its primary outcome of achieving a higher GDMT in the DC group after a follow-up of 12 weeks (ΔGDMT score in the DC group: median 1.19, interquartile range (0.25, 2.3) arbitrary units versus 0.08 (0.00, 1.00) in usual care; P < 0.001). To our knowledge, this is the first multicenter randomized controlled trial that proves a DC strategy is effective to achieve GDMT optimization. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT05413447 .

Phylogeny and disease associations of a widespread and ancient intestinal bacteriophage lineage.

Viruses are core components of the human microbiome, impacting health through interactions with gut bacteria and the immune system. Most human microbiome viruses are bacteriophages, which exclusively infect bacteria. Until recently, most gut virome studies focused on low taxonomic resolution (e.g., viral operational taxonomic units), hampering population-level analyses. We previously identified an expansive and widespread bacteriophage lineage in inhabitants of Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Here, we study their biodiversity and evolution in various human populations. Based on a phylogeny using sequences from six viral genome databases, we propose the Candidatus order Heliusvirales. We identify heliusviruses in 82% of 5441 individuals across 39 studies, and in nine metagenomes from humans that lived in Europe and North America between 1000 and 5000 years ago. We show that a large lineage started to diversify when Homo sapiens first appeared some 300,000 years ago. Ancient peoples and modern hunter-gatherers have distinct Ca. Heliusvirales populations with lower richness than modern urbanized people. Urbanized people suffering from type 1 and type 2 diabetes, as well as inflammatory bowel disease, have higher Ca. Heliusvirales richness than healthy controls. We thus conclude that these ancient core members of the human gut virome have thrived with increasingly westernized lifestyles.

Impact of a Chronic Total Coronary Occlusion on the Incidence of Appropriate Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator Shocks and Mortality: A Substudy of the Dutch Outcome in ICD Therapy (DO-IT)) Registry.

BACKGROUND: Chronic total coronary occlusions (CTO) substantially increase the risk for sudden cardiac death. Among patients with chronic ischemic heart disease at risk for sudden cardiac death, an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) is the favored therapy for primary prevention of sudden cardiac death. This study sought to investigate the impact of CTOs on the risk for appropriate ICD shocks and mortality within a nationwide prospective cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a subanalysis of the nationwide Dutch-Outcome in ICD Therapy (DO-IT) registry of primary prevention ICD recipients in The Netherlands between September 2014 and June 2016 (n=1442). We identified patients with chronic ischemic heart disease (n=663) and assessed available coronary angiograms for CTO presence (n=415). Patients with revascularized CTOs were excluded (n=79). The primary end point was the composite of all-cause mortality and appropriate ICD shocks. Clinical follow-up was conducted for at least 2 years. A total of 336 patients were included, with an average age of 67±9 years, and 20.5% was female (n=69). An unrevascularized CTO was identified in 110 patients (32.7%). During a median follow-up period of 27 months (interquartile range, 24-32), the primary end point occurred in 21.1% of patients with CTO (n=23) compared with 11.9% in patients without CTO (n=27; P=0.034). Corrected for baseline characteristics including left ventricular ejection fraction, and the presence of a CTO was an independent predictor for the primary end point (hazard ratio, 1.82 [95% CI, 1.03-3.22]; P=0.038). CONCLUSIONS: Within this nationwide prospective registry of primary prevention ICD recipients, the presence of an unrevascularized CTO was an independent predictor for the composite outcome of all-cause mortality and appropriate ICD shocks.

Long-term reliability of the phospholamban (PLN) p.(Arg14del) risk model in predicting major ventricular arrhythmia: a landmark study.

AIMS: Recently, a genetic variant-specific prediction model for phospholamban (PLN) p.(Arg14del)-positive individuals was developed to predict individual major ventricular arrhythmia (VA) risk to support decision-making for primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) implantation. This model predicts major VA risk from baseline data, but iterative evaluation of major VA risk may be warranted considering that the risk factors for major VA are progressive. Our aim is to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the PLN p.(Arg14del) risk model at 3-year follow-up. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a landmark analysis 3 years after presentation and selected only patients with no prior major VA. Data were collected of 268 PLN p.(Arg14del)-positive subjects, aged 43.5 ± 16.3 years, 38.9% male. After the 3 years landmark, subjects had a mean follow-up of 4.0 years (± 3.5 years) and 28 (10%) subjects experienced major VA with an annual event rate of 2.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6-3.6], defined as sustained VA, appropriate ICD intervention, or (aborted) sudden cardiac death. The PLN p.(Arg14del) risk score yielded good discrimination in the 3 years landmark cohort with a C-statistic of 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.87) and calibration slope of 0.97. CONCLUSION: The PLN p.(Arg14del) risk model has sustained good model performance up to 3 years follow-up in PLN p.(Arg14del)-positive subjects with no history of major VA. It may therefore be used to support decision-making for primary prevention ICD implantation not merely at presentation but also up to at least 3 years of follow-up.

TOSCCA: a framework for interpretation and testing of sparse canonical correlations.

Summary: In clinical and biomedical research, multiple high-dimensional datasets are nowadays routinely collected from omics and imaging devices. Multivariate methods, such as Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), integrate two (or more) datasets to discover and understand underlying biological mechanisms. For an explorative method like CCA, interpretation is key. We present a sparse CCA method based on soft-thresholding that produces near-orthogonal components, allows for browsing over various sparsity levels, and permutation-based hypothesis testing. Our soft-thresholding approach avoids tuning of a penalty parameter. Such tuning is computationally burdensome and may render unintelligible results. In addition, unlike alternative approaches, our method is less dependent on the initialization. We examined the performance of our approach with simulations and illustrated its use on real cancer genomics data from drug sensitivity screens. Moreover, we compared its performance to Penalized Matrix Analysis (PMA), which is a popular alternative of sparse CCA with a focus on yielding interpretable results. Compared to PMA, our method offers improved interpretability of the results, while not compromising, or even improving, signal discovery. Availability and implementation: The software and simulation framework are available at https://github.com/nuria-sv/toscca.

Sex differences in blood pressure phenotypes over time - the HELIUS study.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension can be classified into different phenotypes according to systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP). In younger adults, these phenotypical differences have different prognostic value for men and women. However, little is known about sex differences in the natural course of different BP phenotypes over time. METHODS: We used baseline and follow-up data from the multiethnic, population-based HELIUS study to assess differences in BP phenotypes over time in men and women aged < 45 years stratified according to baseline office BP into normotension (<140/<90 mmHg), isolated systolic hypertension (ISH, ≥140/<90 mmHg), isolated diastolic hypertension (IDH, <140/≥90 mmHg) or systolic diastolic hypertension (SDH, ≥140/≥90 mmHg). Logistic regression adjusted for age, ethnicity, and follow-up time was used to assess the risk of hypertension at follow-up (BP ≥140/90 mmHg or use of antihypertensive medication), stratified by sex. RESULTS: We included 4103 participants [mean age 33.5 years (SD 7.4), 43.4% men] with a median follow-up time of 6.2 years. Compared to normotensive individuals, the age-adjusted odds ratios (OR) for having hypertension at follow-up were 4.78 (95% CI 2.90; 7.76) for ISH, 6.02 (95% CI 3.70; 9.74) for IDH and 33.73 (95% CI 20.35; 58.38) for SDH in men, while in women, OR were 10.08 (95% CI 4.09; 25.56) for ISH, 27.59 (95% CI 14.68; 53.82) for IDH and 50.58 (95% CI 24.78; 114.84) for SDH. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of hypertension at follow-up was higher among women for all phenotypes compared to men, particularly in those with IDH. Findings of this study emphasize the importance of close BP monitoring in the young, especially in women.

Networks of gut bacteria relate to cardiovascular disease in a multi-ethnic population: the HELIUS study.

AIMS: Gut microbiota have been linked to blood lipid levels and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). The composition and abundance of gut microbiota trophic networks differ between ethnicities. We aim to evaluate the relationship between gut microbiotal trophic networks and CVD phenotypes. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included cross-sectional data from 3860 individuals without CVD history from 6 ethnicities living in the Amsterdam region participating in the prospective Healthy Life in Urban Setting (HELIUS) study. Genetic variants were genotyped, faecal gut microbiota were profiled, and blood and anthropometric parameters were measured. A machine learning approach was used to assess the relationship between CVD risk (Framingham score) and gut microbiota stratified by ethnicity. Potential causal relationships between gut microbiota composition and CVD were inferred by performing two-sample Mendelian randomization with hard CVD events from the Pan-UK Biobank and microbiome genome-wide association studies summary data from a subset of the HELIUS cohort (n = 4117). Microbial taxa identified to be associated with CVD by machine learning and Mendelian randomization were often ethnic-specific, but some concordance across ethnicities was found. The microbes Akkermansia muciniphila and Ruminococcaceae UCG-002 were protective against ischaemic heart disease in African-Surinamese and Moroccans, respectively. We identified a strong inverse association between blood lipids, CVD risk, and the combined abundance of the correlated microbes Christensenellaceae-Methanobrevibacter-Ruminococcaceae (CMR). The CMR cluster was also identified in two independent cohorts and the association with triglycerides was replicated. CONCLUSION: Certain gut microbes can have a potentially causal relationship with CVD events, with possible ethnic-specific effects. We identified a trophic network centred around Christensenellaceae, Methanobrevibacter, and various Ruminococcaceae, frequently lacking in South-Asian Surinamese, to be protective against CVD risk and associated with low triglyceride levels.

Comparative Analysis of Taxonomic and Functional Gut Microbiota Profiles in Relation to Seroconversion of Thyroid Peroxidase Antibodies in Euthyroid Participants.

Background: Previous studies have reported gut microbiome alterations in Hashimoto's autoimmune thyroiditis (HT) patients. Yet, it is unknown whether an aberrant microbiome is present before clinical disease onset in participants susceptible to HT or whether it reflects the effects of the disease itself. In this study, we report for the first time a comprehensive characterization of the taxonomic and functional profiles of the gut microbiota in euthyroid seropositive and seronegative participants. Our primary goal was to determine taxonomic and functional signatures of the intestinal microbiota associated with serum thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb). A secondary aim was to determine whether different ethnicities warrant distinct reference intervals for accurate interpretation of serum thyroid biomarkers. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, euthyroid participants with (N = 159) and without (N = 1309) TPOAb were selected from the multiethnic (European Dutch, Moroccan, and Turkish) HEalthy Life In an Urban Setting (HELIUS) cohort. Fecal microbiota composition was profiled using 16S rRNA sequencing. Differences between the groups were analyzed based on the overall composition (alpha and beta diversity), as well as differential abundance (DA) of microbial taxa and functional pathways using multiple DA tools. Results: Overall composition showed a substantial overlap between the two groups (p > 0.05 for alpha-diversity; p = 0.39 for beta-diversity), indicating that TPOAb-seropositivity does not significantly differentiate gut microbiota composition and diversity. Interestingly, TPOAb status accounted for only a minor fraction (0.07%) of microbiome variance (p = 0.545). Further exploration of taxonomic differences identified 138 taxa nominally associated with TPOAb status. Among these, 13 taxa consistently demonstrated nominal significance across three additional DA methods, alongside notable associations within various functional pathways. Furthermore, we showed that ethnicity-specific reference intervals for serum thyroid biomarkers are not required, as no significant disparities in serum thyroid markers were found among the three ethnic groups residing in an iodine-replete area (p > 0.05 for thyrotropin, free thyroxine, and TPOAb). Conclusion: These findings suggest that there is no robust difference in gut microbiome between individuals with or without TPOAb in terms of alpha and beta-diversity. Nonetheless, several taxa were identified with nominal significance related to TPOAb presence. Further research is required to determine whether these changes indeed imply a higher risk of overt HT.

Segmentation of glioblastomas in early post-operative multi-modal MRI with deep neural networks.

Extent of resection after surgery is one of the main prognostic factors for patients diagnosed with glioblastoma. To achieve this, accurate segmentation and classification of residual tumor from post-operative MR images is essential. The current standard method for estimating it is subject to high inter- and intra-rater variability, and an automated method for segmentation of residual tumor in early post-operative MRI could lead to a more accurate estimation of extent of resection. In this study, two state-of-the-art neural network architectures for pre-operative segmentation were trained for the task. The models were extensively validated on a multicenter dataset with nearly 1000 patients, from 12 hospitals in Europe and the United States. The best performance achieved was a 61% Dice score, and the best classification performance was about 80% balanced accuracy, with a demonstrated ability to generalize across hospitals. In addition, the segmentation performance of the best models was on par with human expert raters. The predicted segmentations can be used to accurately classify the patients into those with residual tumor, and those with gross total resection.

Multi-class glioma segmentation on real-world data with missing MRI sequences: comparison of three deep learning algorithms.

This study tests the generalisability of three Brain Tumor Segmentation (BraTS) challenge models using a multi-center dataset of varying image quality and incomplete MRI datasets. In this retrospective study, DeepMedic, no-new-Unet (nn-Unet), and NVIDIA-net (nv-Net) were trained and tested using manual segmentations from preoperative MRI of glioblastoma (GBM) and low-grade gliomas (LGG) from the BraTS 2021 dataset (1251 in total), in addition to 275 GBM and 205 LGG acquired clinically across 12 hospitals worldwide. Data was split into 80% training, 5% validation, and 15% internal test data. An additional external test-set of 158 GBM and 69 LGG was used to assess generalisability to other hospitals' data. All models' median Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) for both test sets were within, or higher than, previously reported human inter-rater agreement (range of 0.74-0.85). For both test sets, nn-Unet achieved the highest DSC (internal = 0.86, external = 0.93) and the lowest Hausdorff distances (10.07, 13.87 mm, respectively) for all tumor classes (p < 0.001). By applying Sparsified training, missing MRI sequences did not statistically affect the performance. nn-Unet achieves accurate segmentations in clinical settings even in the presence of incomplete MRI datasets. This facilitates future clinical adoption of automated glioma segmentation, which could help inform treatment planning and glioma monitoring.

Multiomics Analysis Provides Novel Pathways Related to Progression of Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Despite major advances in pharmacological treatment for patients with heart failure, residual mortality remains high. This suggests that important pathways are not yet targeted by current heart failure therapies. OBJECTIVES: We sought integration of genetic, transcriptomic, and proteomic data in a large cohort of patients with heart failure to detect major pathways related to progression of heart failure leading to death. METHODS: We used machine learning methodology based on stacked generalization framework and gradient boosting algorithms, using 54 clinical phenotypes, 403 circulating plasma proteins, 36,046 transcript expression levels in whole blood, and 6 million genomic markers to model all-cause mortality in 2,516 patients with heart failure from the BIOSTAT-CHF (Systems BIOlogy Study to TAilored Treatment in Chronic Heart Failure) study. Results were validated in an independent cohort of 1,738 patients. RESULTS: The mean age of the patients was 70 years (Q1-Q3: 61-78 years), 27% were female, median N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide was 4,275 ng/L (Q1-Q3: 2,360-8,486 ng/L), and 7% had heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. During a median follow-up of 21 months, 657 (26%) of patients died. The 4 major pathways with a significant association to all-cause mortality were: 1) the PI3K/Akt pathway; 2) the MAPK pathway; 3) the Ras signaling pathway; and 4) epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor resistance. Results were validated in an independent cohort of 1,738 patients. CONCLUSIONS: A systems biology approach integrating genomic, transcriptomic, and proteomic data identified 4 major pathways related to mortality. These pathways are related to decreased activation of the cardioprotective ERBB2 receptor, which can be modified by neuregulin.

Lipoprotein(a) and carotid intima-media thickness in children with familial hypercholesterolaemia in the Netherlands: a 20-year follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Elevated lipoprotein(a) and familial hypercholesterolaemia are both independent risk conditions for cardiovascular disease. Although signs of atherosclerosis can be observed in children with familial hypercholesterolaemia, it is unknown whether elevated lipoprotein(a) is an additional risk factor for atherosclerosis in these young patients. Therefore, we aimed to assess the contribution of lipoprotein(a) concentrations to arterial wall thickening (as measured by carotid intima-media thickness) in children with familial hypercholesterolaemia who were followed up into adulthood. METHODS: We conducted a 20-year follow-up study of 214 children (aged 8-18 years) with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia who were randomly assigned in a statin trial in Amsterdam (Netherlands) between Dec 7, 1997, and Oct 4, 1999. At baseline, and at 2, 10, and 20 years thereafter, blood samples were taken and carotid intima-media thickness was measured. Linear mixed-effects models were used to evaluate the association between lipoprotein(a) and carotid intima-media thickness during follow-up. We adjusted for sex, age, corrected LDL-cholesterol, statin use, and BMI. FINDINGS: Our study population comprised 200 children who had a carotid intima-media thickness measurement and a measured lipoprotein(a) concentration from at least one visit available. Mean age at baseline was 13·0 years (SD 2·9), 106 (53%) children were male, and 94 (47%) were female. At baseline, median lipoprotein(a) concentration was 18·5 nmol/L (IQR 8·7-35·5) and mean carotid intima-media thickness was 0·4465 mm (SD 0·0496). During follow-up, higher lipoprotein(a) concentrations contributed significantly to progression of carotid intima-media thickness (ß adjusted 0·0073 mm per 50 nmol/L increase in lipoprotein(a) [95% CI 0·0013-0·0132]; p=0·017). INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that lipoprotein(a) concentrations contribute significantly to arterial wall thickening in children with familial hypercholesterolaemia who were followed-up until adulthood, suggesting that lipoprotein(a) is an independent and additional risk factor for early atherosclerosis in those already at increased risk. Lipoprotein(a) measurement in young patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia is crucial to identify those at potentially highest risk for cardiovascular disease. FUNDING: Silence Therapeutics.

Polygenic risk scores for prediction of cancer-associated venous thromboembolism in the UK Biobank cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend thromboprophylaxis for patients with cancer at high risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Polygenic risk scores may improve VTE prediction but have not yet been evaluated in patients with cancer. OBJECTIVES: We assessed the performance of the 5-, 37-, 297-, extended 297- (additionally including factor V Leiden and prothrombin G20210A), and 100-single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) scores in predicting cancer-associated VTE in the UK Biobank, a population-based, prospective cohort study. METHODS: The primary outcome was VTE during 12 months after cancer diagnosis. Cancer and VTE diagnosis were based on ICD-10 codes. Discrimination was evaluated by c-indices and subdistribution hazard ratios in the upper vs 3 lower quartiles of the scores in a competing risk model. As a comparison, the c-index was calculated for the Khorana cancer type risk classification. RESULTS: Of 36 150 patients with cancer (median age, 66 years; 48.7% females), 1018 (2.8%) developed VTE. C-indices at 12 months ranged from 0.56 (95% CI, 0.54-0.58) for the 5-SNP to 0.60 (95% CI, 0.58-0.62) for the extended 297-SNP scores. The subdistribution hazard ratios ranged from 1.36 (95% CI, 1.19-1.56) for the 5-SNP to 1.90 (95% CI, 1.68-2.16) for the extended 297-SNP scores and were consistent after adjusting for cancer type. For the Khorana cancer type classification, the c-index was 0.60 (95% CI, 0.58-0.61), which increased to 0.65 (95% CI, 0.63-0.67, +0.05; 95% CI, 0.04-0.07) when combined with the extended 297-SNP score. CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate that polygenic VTE risk scores can identify patients with cancer with a 1.9-fold higher VTE risk independent of cancer type. Combined clinical-genetic scores to improve cancer-associated VTE prediction should be evaluated further.

Child Abuse, Misdiagnosed by an Expertise Center-Part II-Misuse of Bayes' Theorem.

A newborn girl had, from two weeks on, small bruises on varying body locations, but not on her chest. Her Armenian grandmother easily bruised, too. Her mother was diagnosed with hypermobility-type Ehlers-Danlos-Syndrome (hEDS), an autosomal dominant connective tissue disorder, with a 50% inheritance probability. Referral to a University Medical Center located "Dutch Expertise Center for Child Abuse" resulted (prior to consultation) in physical abuse suspicion. Protocol-based skeletal X-rays showed three healed, asymptomatic rib fractures. A protocol-based Bayesian likelihood ratio guesstimation gave 10-100, erroneously used to suggest a 10-100 times likelier non-accidental-than-accidental cause. Foster care placement followed, even in a secret home, where she also bruised, suggesting hEDS inheritance. Correct non-accidental/accidental Bayes' probability of symptoms is (likelihood ratio) × (physical abuse incidence). From the literature, we derived an infant abuse incidence between about ≈0.0009 and ≈0.0026 and a likelihood ratio of <5 for bruises. For rib fractures, we used a zero likelihood ratio, arguing their cause was birth trauma from the extra delivery pressure on the chest, combined with fragile bones as the daughter of an hEDS-mother. We thus derived a negligible abuse/accidental probability between <5 × 0.0009 <0.005 and <5 × 0.0026 <0.013. The small abuse incidence implies that correctly using Bayes' theorem will also miss true infant physical abuse cases. Curiously, because likelihood ratios assess how more often symptoms develop if abuse did occur versus non-abuse, Bayes' theorem then implies a 100% infant abuse incidence (unwittingly) used by LECK. In conclusion, probabilities should never replace differential diagnostic procedures, the accepted medical method of care. Well-known from literature, supported by the present case, is that (child abuse pediatrics) physicians, child protection workers, and judges were unlikely to understand Bayesian statistics. Its use without statistics consultation should therefore not have occurred. Thus, Bayesian statistics, and certainly (misused) likelihood ratios, should never be applied in cases of physical child abuse suspicion. Finally, parental innocence follows from clarifying what could have caused the girl's bruises (inherited hEDS), and rib fractures (birth trauma from fragile bones).

A non-randomized risk-adjusted comparison of lenalidomide + R-CHOP versus R-CHOP for MYC-rearranged DLBCL patients.

Patients with MYC rearranged (MYC-R) diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) have a poor prognosis. Previously, we demonstrated in a single-arm phase II trial (HOVON-130) that addition of lenalidomide to R-CHOP (R2CHOP) is well-tolerated and yields similar complete metabolic remission rates as more intensive chemotherapy regimens in literature. In parallel with this single-arm interventional trial, a prospective observational screening cohort (HOVON-900) was open in which we identified all newly diagnosed MYC-R DLBCL patients in the Netherlands. Eligible patients from the observational cohort that were not included in the interventional trial served as control group in the present risk-adjusted comparison. R2CHOP treated patients from the interventional trial (n = 77) were younger than patients in the R-CHOP control cohort (n = 56) (median age 63 versus 70 years, p = 0.018) and they were more likely to have a lower WHO performance score (p = 0.013). We adjusted for differences at baseline using 1:1 matching, multivariable analysis, and weighting using the propensity score to reduce treatment-selection bias. These analyses consistently showed improved outcome after R2CHOP with HRs of 0.53, 0.51, and 0.59, respectively, for OS, and 0.53, 0.59, and 0.60 for PFS. Thus, this non-randomized risk-adjusted comparison supports R2CHOP as an additional treatment option for MYC-R DLBCL patients.