La dificultad analítica del rezago temporal en la denuncia y su relevancia en el análisis de los índices de criminalidad en Colombia (2005-2018) / The analytical difficulty of the time lag in reporting and its relevance for the analysis of crime indicators in Colombia (2005-2018) / A dificuldade analítica do lapso de tempo na denúncia e sua na análise dos índices de criminalidade na Colômbia (2005-2018)

Resumen El objetivo De este artículo es visibilizar y cuantificar la dificultad analítica que se presenta al momento de interpretar los índices de criminalidad, debido al rezago temporal del registro en el instante en que se comete el delito y la fecha de ingreso de la denuncia. Ese rezago temporal genera un sesgo benévolo en la medición del crimen y la interpretación criminal para la toma de decisiones, cuando se comparan periodos parciales (años anteriores y vigencia actual). La metodología Utilizada es exploratoria con un enfoque cuantitativo en el tratamiento de los datos registrados desde el año 2005 hasta el 2018, y consolidados en los sistemas Penal Oral Acusatorio (SPOA) de la Fiscalía General de la Nación y de Información Estadístico Delincuencial, Contravencional y Operativo (SIEDCO) de la Policía Nacional de Colombia. Para el análisis se compararon los datos de los delitos de homicidio, hurto, lesiones personales, violencia intrafamiliar y delitos sexuales durante los primeros cuatro y cinco meses de cada periodo anual con los siguientes meses del año. Como Resultado Se evidenció que el rezago temporal promedio en los homicidios fue del 2,85%; en el hurto del 11,8%; en las lesiones personales del 12,7%; en la violencia intrafamiliar del 18,9% y en los delitos sexuales del 30,5%.

Abstract The purpose Of this article is to visualize and quantify the analytic difficulty that arises in interpreting crime indicators due to the time lag between the time when the crime took place and the date on which the crime report was filed2. This time lag creates a lenient bias in crime measurement and interpretation for decision-making effects when time periods are compared (previous periods against the current period). The methodology Used is exploratory with a quantitative approach in the treatment of data recorded from 2005 to 2018, and consolidated in the Oral Criminal Prosecution System (SPOA, for the Spanish original) of the National Prosecutor's Office (Fiscalía) and in the Crime, Infraction and Operations Statistical System (SIEDCO, for the Spanish original) of the National Police of Colombia. Data on the crimes of homicide, theft, personal injuries, intra-family violence and sexual crimes during the first four and five months of each annual period were compared to the data from the subsequent months of the year. As a result It was found that the average time lag was 2.85% for homicides; 11.8% for theft; 12.7% for personal injuries; 18.9% for intra-family violence and 30.5% for sexual crimes.

Resumo O objetivo Deste artigo é tornar visível e quantificar a dificuldade analítica que surge na interpretação dos índices de criminalidade, devido à defasagem temporal do registro no momento em que o crime é cometido e na data de apresentação da denúncia3. Esse lapso temporal gera um viés benevolente na medição e interpretação do crime para a tomada de decisões, quando são comparados períodos parciais (anos anteriores e validade atual). A metodologia Utilizada é exploratória com abordagem quantitativa no tratamento dos dados registados de 2005 a 2018, e consolidados no sistema Penal Oral Acusatório (SPOA) da Procuradoria Geral da Nação e no sistema de Informação Estatístico Delinquencial, Contravencional e Operativo (SIEDCO) da Polícia Nacional da Colômbia. Para a análise foram comparados os dados dos crimes de homicídio, furto, lesões pessoais, violência doméstica e crimes sexuais durante os primeiros quatro e cinco meses de cada período anual com os meses seguintes do ano. Como resultado Constatou-se que a média do lapso temporal nos homicídios foi de 2,85%; no furto de 11,8%; nas lesões pessoais de 12,7%; na violência doméstica de 18,9% e nos crimes sexuais foi de 30,5%.

Relationship between county-level crime and diabetes: Mediating effect of physical inactivity.

This paper assessed the extent to which physical inactivity accounts for the relationship between the crime rate and prevalence of type 2 diabetes in the United States. Using 2018 US county-level data, we compared unadjusted and adjusted prevalence of type 2 diabetes between high and low crime counties for 2,966 US counties. Average causal mediating effects of residents' reported physical inactivity were estimated for each comparison. Counties with a higher crime rate were more likely to have higher percentages of people with type 2 diabetes than counties with a lower crime rate, even after adjusting for potential confounding factors such as racial distribution, income level, food insecurity, and neighborhood walkability (adjusted coefficient for top 40% vs. bottom 40% of crime rate distribution = 0.36; p < 0.001). Over 60% of the adjusted relationship between county-level rate of crime and type 2 diabetes was found to be mediated by physical inactivity. This study reinforces potentially overlooked public health benefits of effective anti-crime measures via improved physical activity.

A State-Level Analysis of Mortality and Google Searches for Pornography: Insight from Life History Theory.

Due to the widespread popularity of pornography, some studies explored which individual factors are associated with the frequency of pornography use. However, knowledge about the relationship between socioecological environment and pornography consumption remains scant. Based on life history theory, the current research investigated the association between state-level mortality and search interest for pornography using Google trends. We observed that, in the U.S., the higher mortality or violent crime rate in a state, the stronger search interest for pornography on Google. The results expand the literature regarding the relationship between socioecological environment and individuals' online sexual behavior at the state level.

The Public Health Concerns of Marijuana Legalization: An Overview of Current Trends.

The objective of this study was to conduct a review of the benefits and adverse effects of cannabis (or marijuana) legalization in various states across the US. The current study offers a preliminary evaluation of the problems concerning marijuana legalization in several states, with the primary goal being the assessment of the impact of laws and policies governing the legalization and use of marijuana for medical purposes. A comprehensive search on cannabis and its derivatives was performed using multiple resource databases: PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CENTRAL (Cochrane Controlled Register of Trials), government web sources, and the Department of Public Health databases. A total of 47 reports that evaluated the effects of cannabis legalization were included in this review. All review stages were conducted independently by two reviewers. Data were extracted in standardized tables by one reviewer and adjusted by a second, which were verified by the third author. We examined the use of cannabis before and after the changes in policy and the impact of marijuana legalization on traffic safety, behavior and educational achievement in adolescents, public health, tax revenues, criminal justice expenditures, and financial outcomes. We analyzed the effects and consequences of marijuana use in states that have or have not legalized marijuana. This report also includes the responsiveness of the people in states where marijuana is legalized and its value in the healthcare system. Our study highlights the existing limitations of reviews that probe the effect of decriminalizing marijuana in some states of the country. Our analysis shows that detailed and precise evaluation of policy dynamics must be conducted, taking into account the heterogeneity in population sub-groups and policies. Accordingly, in states where marijuana is used for its medicinal value and recreational purposes, people have different views on the legalization of marijuana. The complete effect of legalizing and commercializing marijuana on consumers' mental health and their educational outcomes is expected to take a longer duration prior to its achievement; unfortunately, fewer merits are anticipated. Most of the reports evaluated in this article proved to be marred with inconsistencies. Many of the stated claims did not pass a methodical evaluation. Going forward, additional data from available sources will lead to stronger conclusions. We weighed the pros and cons of marijuana legalization. However, we are certain that consumers can make better decisions by weighing each opinion by its reliability and safety.

Managing crime through quality education: A model of justice.

The study examines the role of quality education in access to justice, using a panel data of 21 diversified countries for the period of 1990-2015. The findings show that there is a positive relationship between the presence of scientific and technical journals (STJ) articles and crime rates. The R&D expenditures does not substantially reduce crime rate while per capita income, trademark applications, and technical cooperation grants significantly reduce crime rates across countries. The panel fixed effect (FE) model confirmed the inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita income (GDPpc) and crime rate in the presence of STJ, while this result is changed in the case of GMM estimator. The results of panel causality confirmed the unidirectional causality running from crime rate to STJ and R&D expenditures, while there is bidirectional causality between i) GDPpc and technical cooperation grants, and between ii) energy efficiency and refugee population by country. The variance decomposition analysis (VDA) shows that R&D expenditures have a greater share to influence crime rate, while technical cooperation grants will affect STJ for the next 10 years time. This finding bolsters the conversation on the relationship between education and a reduction in crime rates.

Impact of climate variability and change on crime rates in Tangshan, China.

Studies examining the relation between climate and human conflict often focus on the role of temperature and have diverging views on the significance of other climatic variables. Using a 6-year (from 2009 to 2014) dataset of crime statistics collected in a medium size city of Tangshan in China, we find strong, positive correlations between temperature and both violent and property crimes. In addition, relative humidity is also positively correlated with Rape and Minimal Violent Robbery (MVR). The seasonal cycle is a significant factor that induces good correlations between crime rates and climatic variables, which can be reasonably explained by the Routine Activity theory. We also show that the combined impacts of temperature and relative humidity on crime rates can be reasonably captured by traditional heat stress indices. Using an ensemble of CMIP5 global climate change simulations, we estimate that at the end of the 21st century the rates of Rape (violent crime) and MVR (property crime) in Tangshan will increase by 9.5±5.3% and 2.6±2.1%, respectively, under the highest emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). The gross domestic product (GDP) is also shown to be significantly correlated with MVR rates and the regression results are strongly impacted by whether GDP is considered or not.

Association of individual and community factors with C-reactive protein and 25-hydroxyvitamin D: Evidence from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES).

Many individual and community/neighborhood factors may contribute to inflammation and vitamin D deficiency leading to the development of chronic diseases. This study examined the associations of serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels with individual and community/neighborhood (tract-level or county-level) factors using a nationally representative sample from 2001-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Data from the 2001-2006 waves of the continuous NHANES was merged with the 2000 census and other neighborhood data sources constructed using geographic information system. Associations between multilevel factors and biomarker levels were assessed using multilevel random-intercept regression models. 6643 participants aged 19-65 (3402 men and 3241 women) were included in the analysis. Family income-to-needs ratio was inversely associated with CRP (P=0.002) and positively associated with 25(OH)D levels (P=0.0003). County crime rates were positively associated with CRP (P=0.007) and inversely associated with 25(OH)D levels (P=0.0002). The associations with income-to-needs ratio were significant in men [CRP; P=0.005; 25(OH)D, P=0.005] but not in women. For county crime rates, the association was only significant in women for CRP (P=0.004) and was significant in both men (P=0.01) and women (P=0.001) for 25(OH)D. Additionally, overall CRP was positively associated with age (P<0.0001), female sex (P<0.0001), Hispanic race/ethnicity (P=0.0001), current smokers (P<0.0001), body mass index (BMI, P<0.0001), and participants who were US-born (P=0.02). Non-Hispanic black (P<0.0001) and Hispanic race/ethnicity (P<0.0001), current smoker (P=0.047), and higher BMI (P<0.0001) were associated with lower serum 25(OH)D levels. No significant associations were observed between other community/neighborhood variables and serum CRP and 25(OH)D levels. The current results suggest that family income-to-needs ratio and county crime rate may be important contributors to chronic inflammation and vitamin D status.

Self-inflicted injuries are an important cause of penetrating traumatic injuries in Japan.

Aim: Japan has a low crime rate, but a high suicide rate. The aim of this study is to review the causes of penetrating traumatic injuries in a tertiary care emergency center in Japan. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed all admissions for traumatic injuries over a 3-year period, and calculated the proportion of patients with penetrating traumatic injuries. Weapon used, age, gender, Injury Severity Score, cause of injury, and site of injury in all patients with penetrating injuries were reviewed. The proportion of patients with penetrating injuries among patients with all types of traumatic injuries requiring surgical intervention was calculated. Results: Of 1,321 patients admitted over 3 years, 65 patients (5%) suffered from penetrating injuries. Most were stab wounds, with only one gunshot (2%). The most common site of injury was an extremity (48%). The most common cause of penetrating injury was self-inflicted (38%). The abdomen is the most common site injured among self-inflicted injuries. Of patients with all types of traumatic injuries requiring surgical intervention, penetrating injuries accounted for 23%. Conclusion: Penetrating injuries represent 23% of all patients with traumatic injuries who required surgical intervention. Self-inflicted penetrating injuries were most common, supporting the need for preventive services. Acute care surgeons must be familiar with the surgical management of penetrating traumatic injuries, even in a country with a low crime rate.

Association between district-level perceived safety and self-rated health: a multilevel study in Seoul, South Korea.

OBJECTIVES: Several studies have reported the relationship between residents' perceived neighbourhood safety and their health outcomes. However, those studies suffered from unreliability of neighbourhood safety measure and potential residual confounding related to crime rates. In this study, using multilevel analysis to account for the hierarchical structure of the data, we examined associations between district-level perceived safety and self-rated health after adjusting for potential confounders including the district-level crime rate. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: We used the first wave of Seoul Welfare Panel Study, which has 7761 individuals from 3665 households in 25 administrative districts in Seoul, South Korea. District-level perceived safety was obtained by aggregating responses from the residents that are representative samples for each administrative district in Seoul. To examine an association between district-level safety and residents' self-rated health, we used mixed effect logistic regression. RESULTS: Our results showed that higher district-level perceived safety, an aggregated measure of district residents' responses towards neighbourhood safety, was significantly associated with poor self-rated health after controlling for sex, age, education level, job status, marital status and household income (OR=0.87, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.97). Furthermore, this association was still robust when we additionally adjusted for the district-level crime rate (OR=0.86, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.95). CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the importance of improving neighbourhood perceived safety to enhance residents' health.

"Safe Going": the influence of crime rates and perceived crime and safety on walking in deprived neighbourhoods.

Few studies have simultaneously examined the relationship of levels of recorded crime, perceptions of crime and disorder, and safety from crime with rates of physical activity. We developed a series of multilevel ordinal regression models to examine these aspects in relation to self-reported neighbourhood walking frequency in a cross-sectional sample of 3824 British adults from 29 deprived neighbourhoods in Glasgow, UK. Perceptions of several serious local antisocial behaviours (drunkenness and burglary) and feelings of personal safety (feeling safe in the home and if walking alone in the local area at night) were consistently associated, respectively, with less and more frequent walking. Conversely, perceiving drug dealing or drug use as a serious problem was associated with walking more frequently. There was a small but significant association between walking frequency in neighbourhoods with higher recorded person crime (but not property crime) rates when considered in conjunction with other aspects of disorder and crime safety, although not when additionally controlling for sociodemographic, neighbourhood and community aspects. The magnitude of these objective and perceived crime-related effects is modest and features of the psychosocial environment and social cohesion (having a sense of progress from living in the neighbourhood, group participation and positively rating social venues), as well as health and personal income deprivation, may more strongly determine levels of neighbourhood walking. Nevertheless, physical activity benefits may accrue at the population level through provision of environments that are safer from crime. Our study also shows the importance to local walking of neighbourhood management, which reduces problems of disorder, and of social regeneration, which helps strengthen sense of community.