Posttraumatic stress symptoms in parents of children with newly diagnosed cancer: 1-year trajectories and relationship variables as predictors.

OBJECTIVE: The way in which parental posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) unfold in the first year after a cancer diagnosis in their child is poorly understood. The aims of this study were to identify parental PTSS trajectories and to examine couple-related predictors (dyadic coping and we-disease appraisals), sociodemographic predictors (education and sex), and medical predictors (child's physical impairment) of trajectory membership. METHOD: A 1-year prospective study was conducted, and 157 parents of children newly diagnosed with cancer were assessed. PTSS was measured with the Posttraumatic Diagnostic Scale for DSM-5 (PDS-5) at 3-6 weeks (T1), 6 months (T2), and 12 months (T3) after the diagnosis. The trajectories were identified with Latent Class Growth Analysis, the predictors were explored with binomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Two distinct trajectories were found. The majority of parents (86.0%) followed a low PTSS trajectory, characterized by initially low scores that slightly decreased over 12 months. In contrast, 14.0% of parents displayed a stable, high PTSS trajectory. A high trajectory of child's physical impairment and low scores in parental dyadic coping were significantly associated with the likelihood of a high parental PTSS trajectory. CONCLUSIONS: The findings provide new insights into the critical period of the first year after a child's cancer diagnosis. While most parents display a resilient, low PTSS trajectory, a minority consistently experience high PTSS levels. Child's physical impairment and dyadic coping should be considered as predictors for early identification of vulnerable parents. Incorporating dyadic coping in parental support following a childhood cancer diagnosis could be beneficial for parental mental health.

Factors influencing the tendency of residual symptoms in patients with depressive disorders: a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Residual symptoms of depressive disorders are serious health problems. However, the progression process is hardly predictable due to high heterogeneity of the disease. This study aims to: (1) classify the patterns of changes in residual symptoms based on homogeneous data, and (2) identify potential predictors for these patterns. METHODS: In this study, we conducted a data-driven Latent Class Growth Analysis (LCGA) to identify distinct tendencies of changes in residual symptoms, which were longitudinally quantified using the QIDS-SR16 at baseline and 1/3/6 months post-baseline for depressed patients. The association between baseline characteristics (e.g. clinical features and cognitive functions) and different progression tendencies were also identified. RESULTS: The tendency of changes in residual symptoms was categorized into four classes: "light residual symptom decline (15.4%)", "residual symptom disappears (39.3%)", "steady residual symptom (6.3%)" and "severe residual symptom decline (39.0%)". We observed that the second class displayed more favorable recuperation outcomes than the rest of patients. The severity, recurrence, polypharmacy, and medication adherence of symptoms are intricately linked to the duration of residual symptoms' persistence. Additionally, clinical characteristics including sleep disturbances, depressive moods, alterations in appetite or weight, and difficulties with concentration have been identified as significant factors in the recovery process. CONCLUSIONS: Our research findings indicate that certain clinical characteristics in patients with depressive disorders are associated with poor recovery from residual symptoms following acute treatment. This revelation holds significant value in the targeted attention to specific patients and the development of early intervention strategies for residual symptoms accordingly.

Determination and characterization of patient subgroups based on pain trajectories in hand osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate pain, pain trajectories and their determinants in hand osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: Data from the HOSTAS (Hand OSTeoArthritis in Secondary care) consisting of consecutive hand OA patients were used. Australian Canadian Osteoarthritis Hand Index (AUSCAN) pain was measured yearly for four years. Patients with complete AUSCAN at ≥2 time points were eligible for longitudinal analysis. Associations between variables of interest and baseline AUSCAN pain were investigated with linear regression. Development of pain over time was modelled using latent class growth analysis (LCGA). Associations of LCGA classes with variables of interest were analysed using multinomial logistic regression adjusted for baseline pain. RESULTS: A total of 484/538 patients [mean (s.d.) age 60.8 (8.5) years, 86% women, mean (s.d.) AUSCAN pain 9.3 (4.3)] were eligible for longitudinal analysis. Sex, marital and working status, education, disease duration and severity, anxiety and depression scores, lower health-related quality of life (HR-QoL), specific illness perceptions and coping styles were associated with baseline pain. LCGA yielded three classes, characterized by average pain levels at baseline; average pain remained stable over time within classes. Classes with more pain were positively associated with BMI, tender joint count, symptom duration, hand function scores and depression scores, negatively with physical HR-QoL, and education level. CONCLUSION: Baseline pain was associated with patient and disease characteristics, and psychosocial factors. LCGA showed three pain trajectories in hand OA patients, with different baseline pain levels and stable pain over time. Classes were distinguished by BMI, education level, disease severity, depression and HR-QoL.

Body Mass Index Trajectory and Outcome Post Fontan Procedure.

Background Patients with a single ventricle who experience early life growth failure suffer high morbidity and mortality in the perisurgical period. However, long-term implications of poor infant growth, as well as associations between body mass index (BMI) and outcome in adulthood, remain unclear. We aimed to model BMI trajectories of patients with a single ventricle undergoing a Fontan procedure to determine trajectory-based differences in baseline characteristics and long-term clinical outcomes. Methods and Results We performed a retrospective analysis of medical records from patients in the Australia and New Zealand Fontan Registry receiving treatment at the Royal Children's Hospital, The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Royal Melbourne Hospital, and Royal Prince Alfred Hospital from 1981 to 2018. BMI trajectories were modeled in 496 patients using latent class growth analysis from 0 to 6 months, 6 to 60 months, and 5 to 16 years. Trajectories were compared regarding long-term incidence of severe Fontan failure (defined as mortality, heart transplantation, Fontan takedown, or New York Heart Association class III/IV heart failure). Three trajectories were found for male and female subjects at each age group-lower, middle, higher. Subjects in the lower trajectory at 0 to 6 months were more likely to have an atriopulmonary Fontan and experienced increased mortality long term. No association was found between higher BMI trajectory, current BMI, and long-term outcome. Conclusions Poor growth in early life correlates with increased long-term severe Fontan failure. Delineation of distinct BMI trajectories can be used in larger and older cohorts to find optimal BMI targets for patient outcome.

Longitudinal phenotyping of maternal antenatal depression in obese pregnant women supports multiple-hit hypothesis for fetal brain development, a secondary analysis of the UPBEAT study.

Background: Maternal antenatal depression is associated with offspring psychological disorders, but obesity is also widely implicated in maternal depression and neurodevelopment. In pregnant women with obesity we explored interrelationships between antenatal depressive symptom trajectories and multiple exposures implicated in fetal neurodevelopment which could explain these associations, as a prelude to exploring associations with infant mental health. Methods: The UK Pregnancies Better Eating and Activity Trial (UPBEAT) recruited multi-ethnic pregnant women with obesity (BMI >= 30kg/m2) between March 2009 and June 2014 from 8 UK sites and 1369 were included to model longitudinal antenatal depressive symptoms from Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) scores using Latent Class Growth Analysis. Classes were compared on maternal baseline demography, biomarkers of metabolism, inflammation and placental function, infection, diet and by pregnancy and birth outcomes. Odds ratios, mean differences and 95% Confidence Intervals were calculated using robust auxiliary modelling techniques. Findings: The chosen model produced four classes: "Not Depressed" (n=575 [42%], "reference"), "Mild" (n=523 [37·5%]), "Moderate" (n=219 [16%]) and "Severe" (n=62 [4·5%]) symptom trajectories. Socio-economic deprivation and ethnic diversity were greater in Severe and Moderate classes. Dietary glycaemic load and saturated fat intake were higher in Severe and Moderate classes (at 17 and 27 weeks). Higher Interleukin-6, glycoprotein acetyls (17 weeks), glucose (34 weeks) and lower placental growth factor (PlGF, 17 and 27 weeks) was found in the Severe class. PlGF was lower in the Moderate class (27 weeks). Infection was least likely in the Not Depressed class across gestation. Risks of preterm birth were associated with Severe depressive symptoms (aOR 3·05[1·11 to 8·36]). Interpretation: Comprehensive phenotyping exposes important fetal exposures implicated in adverse neurodevelopment, differing by depression class. This study expands substantially on causal models of suboptimal fetal neurodevelopment and offers potential new targets for intervention in obese pregnant women. Funding: JNS was funded by a PhD studentship from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust and King's College London. UPBEAT was supported by the European Union's 7th Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013), project EarlyNutrition; grant agreement no. 289346 and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) (UK) Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme (RP-0407-10452), Medical Research Council UK Project Grant (MR/L002477/1). Support was also provided by the Chief Scientist Office Scotland, Guy's and St Thomas' Charity and Tommy's Charity (Registered charity no. 1060508). LP and SLW are funded by Tommy's Charity.

Developmental trajectories of toddler sleep problems: can a person-centered approach help identify children at risk?

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Previous research examining toddler sleep problems has relied almost exclusively on variable-centered statistical approaches to analyze these data, which provide helpful information about the development of the average child. The current study examined whether person-centered trajectory analysis, a statistical technique that can identify subgroups of children who differ in their initial level and/or trajectory of sleep problems, has the potential to inform our understanding of toddler sleep problems and their development. METHODS: Families (N = 185) were assessed at 12, 24, 30, and 36 months of child age. Latent class growth analysis was used to test for subgroups that differed in their 24-36 month sleep problems. Subgroups were compared on child 36-month externalizing, internalizing, and total problem behaviors, and on 12 month maternal mental health, inter-parental conflict, and maternal parenting behaviors. RESULTS: Results support a four-class solution, with "low, stable," "low, increasing," "high, increasing," and "high decreasing" classes. The classes whose sleep problems persisted or worsened over time had worse behavioral problems than those whose symptoms improved or remained stably low. Additionally, 12 month maternal depression and global symptom severity, intimate partner violence, and maternal harsh-intrusive parenting behaviors discriminated between the classes that had similar levels of 24 month sleep disturbance but who had diverging trajectories over time. CONCLUSIONS: This statistical approach appears to have the potential to increase understanding of sleep problem trajectories in the early years of life. Maternal mental health, intimate partner violence, and parenting behaviors may be clinically useful markers of risk for the persistence or development of toddler sleep problems.

What methods are used to study the association between medication adherence trajectories, estimated with the group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) method, and health-related outcomes?-a protocol for a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) method is increasingly used in pharmacoepidemiologic studies to describe medication adherence trajectories over time. However, assessing the associations between these medication adherence trajectories and health-related outcomes remains challenging. The purpose of this review is to identify and systematically review the methods used to assess the association between medication adherence trajectories, estimated from the GBTM method, and health-related outcomes. METHODS: We will conduct a systematic review according to the recommendations of the Cochrane handbook for systematic reviews of interventions 6.2. Results will be reported following PRISMA 2020 (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses) recommendations. We will search in the following databases: PubMed, Embase, PsycINFO, Web of Science, CINAHL, and Cochrane Library. Two reviewers will independently select articles and extract data. Discrepancies at every step will be resolved through discussion, and consensus will be reached for all disagreed articles. A third reviewer will act as a referee if needed. We will produce tables to synthesize the modalities used to estimate medication adherence trajectories with GBTM. We will also synthesize the modalities used to assess the association between these medication adherence trajectories and health-related outcomes by identifying the types of health-related outcomes studied and how they are defined, the statistical models used, and how the medication adherence trajectories were used in these models, and the effect measure yield. We will also review the limitations and biases reported by the authors and their attempts to mitigate them. We will provide a narrative synthesis. DISCUSSION: This review will provide a thorough exploration of the strategies and methods used in medication adherence research to estimate the associations between medication adherence trajectories, estimated with GBTM, and the different health-related outcomes. It will represent the first crucial steps toward optimizing these methods in adherence studies. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: Prospero CRD42021213503 .

Trajectory of post-traumatic stress and depression among children and adolescents following single-incident trauma.

OBJECTIVE: Post-traumatic stress disorder and depression have high comorbidity. Understanding their relationship is of clinical and theoretical importance. A comprehensive way to understand post-trauma psychopathology is through symptom trajectories. This study aims to look at the developmental courses of PTSD and depression symptoms and their interrelationship in the initial months post-trauma in children and adolescents. METHODS: Two-hundred-and-seventeen children and adolescents aged between eight and 17 exposed to single-event trauma were included in the study. Post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) and depression symptoms were measured at 2 weeks, 2 months and 9 months, with further psychological variables measured at the 2-week assessment. Group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM) was applied to estimate the latent developmental clusters of the two outcomes. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors associated with high symptom groups. RESULTS: The GBTM yielded a three-group model for PTSS and a three-group model for depression. PTSS trajectories showed symptoms reduced to a non-clinical level by 9 months for all participants (if they were not already in the non-clinical range): participants were observed to be resilient (42.4%) or recovered within 2 months (35.6%), while 21.9% experienced high level PTSS but recovered by 9 months post-trauma. The depression symptom trajectories predicted a chronic non-recovery group (20.1%) and two mild symptom groups (45.9%, 34.0%). Further analysis showed high synchronicity between PTSS and depression groups. Peri-event panic, negative appraisals, rumination and thought suppression at 2 weeks predicted slow recovery from PTSS. Pre-trauma wellbeing, post-trauma anxiety and negative appraisals predicted chronic depression. CONCLUSIONS: Post-trauma depression was more persistent than PTSS at 9 months in the sampled population. Cognitive appraisal was the shared risk factor to high symptom groups of both PTSS and depression.

Objetivo: El trastorno de estrés postraumático y la depresión tienen una alta comorbilidad. Comprender su relación es de importancia clínica y teórica. Una forma integral de comprender la psicopatología postraumática es a través de las trayectorias de los síntomas. Este estudio tiene como objetivo observar los cursos de desarrollo del TEPT y los síntomas de depresión y su interrelación en los primeros meses posteriores al trauma en niños/ñas y adolescentes.Métodos: Se incluyeron en el estudio 217 niños/ñas y adolescentes de ocho a diecisiete años expuestos a un evento traumático único. Los síntomas de estrés postraumático (SEPT) y los síntomas de depresión se midieron a las 2 semanas, 2 meses y 9 meses, con otras variables psicológicas medidas en la evaluación de 2 semanas. Se aplicó un modelo de trayectoria basado en grupos (MTBG) para estimar los grupos de desarrollo latentes de los dos resultados. Se utilizó la regresión logística para identificar predictores asociados con grupos de síntomas elevados.Resultados: El MTBG arrojó un modelo de tres grupos para SEPT y un modelo de tres grupos para depresión. Las trayectorias de SEPT mostraron síntomas reducidos a un nivel no clínico en 9 meses para todos los participantes (si ellos aún no estaban en el rango no clínico): se observó que los participantes eran resilientes (42,4%) o se recuperaron en 2 meses (35,6%), mientras que el 21,9% experimentó un SEPT de alto nivel pero se recuperó a los 9 meses después del trauma. Las trayectorias de los síntomas de depresión predijeron un grupo crónico de no-recuperación (20,1%) y dos grupos de síntomas leves (45,9%, 34,0%). Un análisis posterior mostró una alta sincronicidad entre los grupos de SEPT y depresión. El pánico peri-evento, las evaluaciones negativas, la rumiación y la supresión del pensamiento a las 2 semanas predijeron una recuperación lenta del SEPT. El bienestar pre-traumático, la ansiedad post-traumática y las valoraciones negativas predijeron la depresión crónica.Conclusiones: La depresión post-traumática fue más persistente que el SEPT a los 9 meses en la población muestreada. La evaluación cognitiva fue el factor de riesgo compartido para los grupos de síntomas altos tanto de SEPT como de depresión.

Child Community Violence Exposure in an at-Risk Sample: Developmental Trajectories, Caregiving Risks, and the Role of Child Temperament.

Objective: To better understand early etiological pathways to trajectories of child exposure to community violence (CECV), we used person-centered latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to examine chronicity of CECV from early school age through early adolescence, and examined early risks of the identified CECV trajectories (i.e., prenatal cocaine exposure, harsh parenting and caregiving instability across infancy and early childhood, and child activity level and inhibitory control at kindergarten age). Method: An at-risk sample (N = 216; 110 girls) of primarily low-income participants (76% on Temporary Assistance for Needy Families) with high rates of prenatal substance exposure was used. The majority of the mothers were African American (72%), had high school or below education (70%), and were single (86%). Postnatal assessments occurred at eight time points during infancy and toddlerhood, early childhood through early school age, and early adolescence. Results: We identified two distinct linearly increasing CECV trajectories (high-exposure and low-exposure). An interaction between child activity level and maternal harshness emerged, such that children with high activity levels and experiencing high harshness had the highest probabilities of being in the high exposure-increasing trajectory, in addition to early caregiving instability (conditional effect). Conclusion: The current findings not only have important theoretical implications but also provide insights into early intervention.

Deleting "fear" from "fear extinction": Estimating the individual extinction rate via non-aversive conditioning.

Individual differences in extinction learning have attracted ample attention of researchers and are under investigation as a marker for the onset of anxiety disorders and treatment response. Unfortunately, the common paradigm for obtaining the extinction rate, which entails aversive stimulus pairings, is subject to practical limitations. Therefore, the present study assessed whether the use of an aversive stimulus is actually needed to get a good estimate of the extinction rate. A total of 161 undergraduate students completed a conditioning task with both an aversive and a non-aversive stimulus. Using latent class growth analysis (LCGA), distinct trajectories, representing normal and stunted extinction learning, were identified for both these stimulus types. Participants' membership in these classes largely overlapped for aversive and non-aversive stimulus pairings and respective extinction indices were significantly correlated. Thereby, findings suggest that the use of a non-aversive stimulus could suffice for successfully capturing individual differences in extinction learning. However, future studies are needed to confirm that conditioning with a non-aversive stimulus may serve to predict clinically relevant outcomes.

Latent class growth analyses reveal overrepresentation of dysfunctional fear conditioning trajectories in patients with anxiety-related disorders compared to controls.

Recent meta-analyses indicated differences in fear acquisition and extinction between patients with anxiety-related disorders and comparison subjects. However, these effects are small and may hold for only a subsample of patients. To investigate individual trajectories in fear acquisition and extinction across patients with anxiety-related disorders (N = 104; before treatment) and comparison subjects (N = 93), data from a previous study (Duits et al., 2017) were re-analyzed using data-driven latent class growth analyses. In this explorative study, subjective fear ratings, shock expectancy ratings and startle responses were used as outcome measures. Fear and expectancy ratings, but not startle data, yielded distinct fear conditioning trajectories across participants. Patients were, compared to controls, overrepresented in two distinct dysfunctional fear conditioning trajectories: impaired safety learning and poor fear extinction to danger cues. The profiling of individual patterns allowed to determine that whereas a subset of patients showed trajectories of dysfunctional fear conditioning, a significant proportion of patients (≥50 %) did not. The strength of trajectory analyses as opposed to group analyses is that it allows the identification of individuals with dysfunctional fear conditioning. Results suggested that dysfunctional fear learning may also be associated with poor treatment outcome, but further research in larger samples is needed to address this question.

Using Panel Data to Understand the Dynamics of Human Behavior in Response to Flooding.

Insights into the dynamics of human behavior in response to flooding are urgently needed for the development of effective integrated flood risk management strategies, and for integrating human behavior in flood risk modeling. However, our understanding of the dynamics of risk perceptions, attitudes, individual recovery processes, as well as adaptive (i.e., risk reducing) intention and behavior are currently limited because of the predominant use of cross-sectional surveys in the flood risk domain. Here, we present the results from one of the first panel surveys in the flood risk domain covering a relatively long period of time (i.e., four years after a damaging event), three survey waves, and a wide range of topics relevant to the role of citizens in integrated flood risk management. The panel data, consisting of 227 individuals affected by the 2013 flood in Germany, were analyzed using repeated-measures ANOVA and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to utilize the unique temporal dimension of the data set. Results show that attitudes, such as the respondents' perceived responsibility within flood risk management, remain fairly stable over time. Changes are observed partly for risk perceptions and mainly for individual recovery and intentions to undertake risk-reducing measures. LCGA reveal heterogeneous recovery and adaptation trajectories that need to be taken into account in policies supporting individual recovery and stimulating societal preparedness. More panel studies in the flood risk domain are needed to gain better insights into the dynamics of individual recovery, risk-reducing behavior, and associated risk and protective factors.

Development of Cynicism in Medical Students: Exploring the Role of Signature Character Strengths and Well-Being.

Reports of medical students experiencing burnout-related symptoms (e.g., cynicism) have increased in recent years. Little is known about the developmental process of this phenomenon and its relations with signature character strengths and well-being. The aim of this longitudinal analysis was to explore changes in the level of cynicism of medical students while in preclinical education. We further examined how the applicability of signature character strengths and well-being are related to this developmental process. Medical students (N = 99) participated in three online surveys over 3 years during medical school. Latent growth modeling, latent class growth modeling, general mixed modeling was conducted, and post hoc mixed ANOVA, Friedman test and Welch test analyses were examined. The results showed an increase in cynicism among medical students from first to last measurement. Two groups with distinct developmental trajectory patterns of cynicism were identified. Students with high levels of cynicism (high-level group) and students with changing levels of cynicism (increasing group) perceived higher applicability of signature character strengths in private life compared to the study context. Moreover, the high-level group experienced significantly lower psychological well-being (in particular mastery, optimism, and relationship) in their first year of medical education. This explorative study offers a comprehensive understanding of cynicism development in medical students during medical school and its relations to the applicability of signature character strengths and well-being. Prospective replication studies are needed to replicate the results obtained in this study.

Are trajectories of neck-shoulder pain associated with sick leave and work ability in workers? A 1-year prospective study.

OBJECTIVES: The study aimed to determine the extent to which latent trajectories of neck-shoulder pain (NSP) are associated with self-reported sick leave and work ability based on frequent repeated measures over 1 year in an occupational population. METHODS: This longitudinal study included 748 Danish workers (blue-collar, n=620; white collar, n=128). A questionnaire was administered to collect data on personal and occupational factors at baseline. Text messages were used for repeated measurements of NSP intensity (scale 0-10) over 1 year (14 waves in total). Simultaneously, self-reported sick leave (days/month) due to pain was assessed at 4-week intervals, while work ability (scale 0-10) was assessed using a single item (work ability index) at 12-week intervals over the year. Trajectories of NSP, distinguished by latent class growth analysis, were used as predictors of sick leave and work ability in generalised estimation equations with multiple adjustments. RESULTS: Sick leave increased and work ability decreased across all NSP trajectory classes (low, moderate, strong fluctuating and severe persistent pain intensity). In the adjusted model, the estimated number of days on sick leave was 1.5 days/month for severe persistent NSP compared with 0.1 days/month for low NSP (relative risk=13.8, 95% CI 6.7 to 28.5). Similarly, work ability decreased markedly for severe persistent NSP (OR=12.9, 95% CI 8.5 to 19.7; median 7.1) compared with low NSP (median 9.5). CONCLUSION: Severe persistent NSP was associated with sick leave and poor work ability over 1 year among workers. Preventive strategies aiming at reducing severe persistent NSP among working populations are needed.

A TPB-Based Smoking Intervention among Chinese High School Students.

OBJECTIVES: China is the world's largest tobacco consumer and its adolescent smoking rate is increasing. Smoking interventions among high school students are limited. The aim of this study was to deliver and evaluate a brief theory-based smoking intervention in China, with a focus on anti-smoking cognitions. METHODS: The intervention was based on the constructs of an extended theory of planned behavior and life skills training. Using class-level randomization sampling, 106 tenth graders from two high schools in Kunming, China received a four-session intervention; 101 students were assigned as control group members. Surveys were conducted at three time-points (1 week before the intervention, 1 week post-intervention, and 6 months post-intervention). MANOVA and latent class analysis were used to test the intervention's effectiveness and personal change trajectories over time. RESULTS: The intervention failed to change smoking behavior, intention or willingness, but improved anti-smoking attitudes and perceived control over smoking. Skills showed a general enhancement, consistent with participants' qualitative feedback. Trajectories of smoking behavior, intention, and willingness all assumed two distinct but constant latent classes independent of the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that addressing attitudinal and control beliefs among adolescents and building on assertiveness via additional strategies in life skills such as appropriate refusal skills may be beneficial. The absence of a successful change in subjective norm should be a focus for future anti-smoking programs in China.

Developmental trajectories of paediatric headache - sex-specific analyses and predictors.

BACKGROUND: Headache is the most common pain disorder in children and adolescents and is associated with diverse dysfunctions and psychological symptoms. Several studies evidenced sex-specific differences in headache frequency. Until now no study exists that examined sex-specific patterns of change in paediatric headache across time and included pain-related somatic and (socio-)psychological predictors. METHOD: Latent Class Growth Analysis (LCGA) was used in order to identify different trajectory classes of headache across four annual time points in a population-based sample (n = 3 227; mean age 11.34 years; 51.2 % girls). In multinomial logistic regression analyses the influence of several predictors on the class membership was examined. RESULTS: For girls, a four-class model was identified as the best fitting model. While the majority of girls reported no (30.5 %) or moderate headache frequencies (32.5 %) across time, one class with a high level of headache days (20.8 %) and a class with an increasing headache frequency across time (16.2 %) were identified. For boys a two class model with a 'no headache class' (48.6 %) and 'moderate headache class' (51.4 %) showed the best model fit. Regarding logistic regression analyses, migraine and parental headache proved to be stable predictors across sexes. Depression/anxiety was a significant predictor for all pain classes in girls. Life events, dysfunctional stress coping and school burden were also able to differentiate at least between some classes in both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: The identified trajectories reflect sex-specific differences in paediatric headache, as seen in the number and type of classes extracted. The documented risk factors can deliver ideas for preventive actions and considerations for treatment programmes.

Exploring the clinical course of neck pain in physical therapy: a longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the short-term trajectory of recovery from mechanical neck pain, and predictors of trajectory. DESIGN: Prospective, longitudinal cohort study with 5 repeated measurements over 4 weeks. SETTING: Community-based physical therapy clinics. PARTICIPANTS: Convenience sample of community-dwelling adults (N=50) with uncomplicated mechanical neck disorders of any duration. INTERVENTIONS: Usual physical therapy care. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Neck Disability Index (NDI), numeric rating scale (NRS) of pain intensity. RESULTS: A total of 50 consecutive subjects provided 5 data points over 4 weeks. Exploratory modeling using latent class growth analysis revealed a linear trend in improvement, at a mean of 1.5 NDI points and 0.5 NRS points per week. Within the NDI trajectory, 3 latent classes were identified, each with a unique trend: worsening (14.5%), rapid improvement (19.6%), and slow improvement (65.8%). Within the NRS trajectory, 2 unique trends were identified: stable (48.0%) and improving (52.0%). Predictors of trajectory class suggest that it may be possible to predict the trajectory. Results are described in view of the sample size. CONCLUSIONS: The mean trajectory of improvement in neck pain adequately fits a linear model and suggests slow but stable improvement over the short term. However, up to 3 different trajectories have been identified that suggest neck pain, and recovery thereof, is not homogenous. This may hold value for the design of clinical trials.

Individual- and community-level correlates of cigarette-smoking trajectories from age 13 to 32 in a U.S. population-based sample.

BACKGROUND: Characterizing smoking behavior is important for informing etiologic models and targeting prevention efforts. This study explored the effects of both individual- and community-level variables in predicting cigarette use vs. non-use and level of use among adolescents as they transition into adulthood. METHODS: Data on 14,779 youths (53% female) were drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health); a nationally representative longitudinal cohort. A cohort sequential design allowed for examining trajectories of smoking typologies from age 13 to 32 years. Smoking trajectories were evaluated by using a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) latent growth analysis and latent class growth analysis modeling approach. RESULTS: Significant relationships emerged between both individual- and community-level variables and smoking outcomes. Maternal and peer smoking predicted increases in smoking over development and were associated with a greater likelihood of belonging to any of the four identified smoking groups versus Non-Users. Conduct problems and depressive symptoms during adolescence were related to cigarette use versus non-use. State-level prevalence of adolescent smoking was related to greater cigarette use during adolescence. CONCLUSIONS: Individual- and community-level variables that distinguish smoking patterns within the population aid in understanding cigarette use versus non-use and the quantity of cigarette use into adulthood. Our findings suggest that efforts to prevent cigarette use would benefit from attention to both parental and peer smoking and individual well-being. Future work is needed to better understand the role of variables in the context of multiple levels (individual and community-level) on smoking trajectories.