A deep learning approach for deriving wheat phenology from near-surface RGB image series using spatiotemporal fusion.

Accurate monitoring of wheat phenological stages is essential for effective crop management and informed agricultural decision-making. Traditional methods often rely on labour-intensive field surveys, which are prone to subjective bias and limited temporal resolution. To address these challenges, this study explores the potential of near-surface cameras combined with an advanced deep-learning approach to derive wheat phenological stages from high-quality, real-time RGB image series. Three deep learning models based on three different spatiotemporal feature fusion methods, namely sequential fusion, synchronous fusion, and parallel fusion, were constructed and evaluated for deriving wheat phenological stages with these near-surface RGB image series. Moreover, the impact of different image resolutions, capture perspectives, and model training strategies on the performance of deep learning models was also investigated. The results indicate that the model using the sequential fusion method is optimal, with an overall accuracy (OA) of 0.935, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.069, F1-score (F1) of 0.936, and kappa coefficients (Kappa) of 0.924 in wheat phenological stages. Besides, the enhanced image resolution of 512 × 512 pixels and a suitable image capture perspective, specifically a sensor viewing angle of 40° to 60° vertically, introduce more effective features for phenological stage detection, thereby enhancing the model's accuracy. Furthermore, concerning the model training, applying a two-step fine-tuning strategy will also enhance the model's robustness to random variations in perspective. This research introduces an innovative approach for real-time phenological stage detection and provides a solid foundation for precision agriculture. By accurately deriving critical phenological stages, the methodology developed in this study supports the optimization of crop management practices, which may result in improved resource efficiency and sustainability across diverse agricultural settings. The implications of this work extend beyond wheat, offering a scalable solution that can be adapted to monitor other crops, thereby contributing to more efficient and sustainable agricultural systems.

Intraspecific body size variation across distributional moments reveals trait filtering processes.

Natural populations are composed of individuals that vary in their morphological traits, timing and interactions. The distribution of a trait can be described by several dimensions, or mathematical moments-mean, variance, skew and kurtosis. Shifts in the distribution of a trait across these moments in response to environmental variation can help to reveal which trait values are gained or lost, and consequently how trait filtering processes are altering populations. To examine the role and drivers of intraspecific variation within a trait filtering framework, we investigate variation in body size among five wild bumblebee species in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. First, we examine the relationships between environmental factors (climate and floral food resources) and body size distributions across bumblebee social castes to identify demographic responses to environmental variation. Next, we examine changes in the moments of trait distributions to reveal potential mechanisms behind intraspecific shifts in body size. Finally, we examine how intraspecific body size variation is related to diet breadth and phenology. We found that climate conditions have a strong effect on observed body size variation across all distributional moments, but the filtering mechanism varies by social caste. For example, with earlier spring snowmelt queens declined in mean size and became negatively skewed and more kurtotic. This suggests a skewed filter admitting a greater frequency of small individuals. With greater availability of floral food resources, queens increased in mean size, but workers and males decreased in size. Observed shifts in body size variation also correspond with variation in diet breadth and phenology. Populations with larger average body size were associated with more generalized foraging in workers of short-tongued species and increased specialization in longer-tongued workers. Altered phenological timing was associated with species- and caste-specific shifts in skew. Across an assemblage of wild bumblebees, we find complex patterns of trait variation that may not have been captured if we had simply considered mean and variance. The four-moment approach we employ here provides holistic insight into intraspecific trait variation, which may otherwise be overlooked and reveals potential underlying filtering processes driving such variation within populations.

Climate and topography control variation in the tropical dry forest-rainforest ecotone.

Ecotones are the transition zones between ecosystems and can exhibit steep gradients in ecosystem properties controlling flows of energy and organisms between them. Ecotones are understood to be sensitive to climate and environmental changes, but the potential for spatiotemporal dynamics of ecotones to act as indicators of such changes is limited by methodological and logistical constraints. Here, we use a novel combination of satellite remote sensing and analyses of spatial synchrony to identify the tropical dry forest-rainforest ecotone in Area de Conservación Guanacaste, Costa Rica. We further examine how climate and topography influence the spatiotemporal dynamics of the ecotone, showing that ecotone is most prevalent at mid-elevations where the topography leads to moisture accumulation and that climatic moisture availability influences up and downslope interannual variation in ecotone location. We found some evidence for long-term (22 year) trends toward upslope or downslope ecotone shifts, but stronger evidence that regional climate mediates topographic controls on ecotone properties. Our findings suggest the ecotone boundary on the dry forest side may be less resilient to future precipitation reductions and that if drought frequency increases, ecotone reductions are more likely to occur along the dry forest boundary.

Stable Isotope Labelling Reveals Water and Carbon Fluxes in Temperate Tree Saplings Before Budbreak.

Despite considerable experimental effort, the physiological mechanisms governing temperate tree species' water and carbon dynamics before the onset of the growing period remain poorly understood. We applied 2H-enriched water during winter dormancy to the soil of four potted European tree species. After 8 weeks of chilling, hydrogen isotopes in stem, twig and bud water were measured six times during 2 consecutive weeks of forcing conditions (Experiment 1). Additionally, we pulse-labelled above-ground plant tissues using 2H-enriched water vapour and 13C-enriched CO2 7 days after exposure to forcing conditions to trace atmospheric water and carbon uptake (Experiment 2). Experiment 1 revealed soil water incorporation into the above-ground organs of all species during the chilling phase and significant species-specific differences in water allocation during the forcing conditions, which we attributed to differences in structural traits. Experiment 2 illustrated water vapour incorporation into all above-ground tissue of all species. However, the incorporation of carbon was found for evergreen saplings only. Our results suggest that temperate trees take up and reallocate soil water and absorb atmospheric water to maintain sufficient above-ground tissue hydration during winter. Therefore, our findings provide new insights into the water allocation dynamics of temperate trees during early spring.

Lunar synchrony, geography, and individual clocks shape autumn migration timing in an avian migrant.

Timing programs in animal migrants have been selected to synchronize movements that coincide with predictable resources on the breeding and nonbreeding grounds. Migrants face potential temporal conflicts if their migration schedules benefit from synchrony to conflicting rhythms associated with annual biogeographical (circannual) cues, lunar (circalunar) cues, or individually repeatable internal clocks. We repeat-tracked individuals of an avian lunaphilic species, Eastern Whip-poor-will (Antrostomus vociferus), for two to three successive autumn migrations to determine the influence of the lunar cycle, breeding location, and individual repeatability on migration timing. Almost all birds avoided departing for migration during a full moon, likely to take advantage of the bright moonlight to facilitate visual foraging and enhance pre-migration fattening. However, groups from two latitudinally distant sampling areas adjusted their autumn departure timing differently relative to the timing of the September full moon, presumably due to differences in seasonal prey availability. Individual repeatability increased throughout autumn migration, suggesting that the factors responsible for shaping migration timing may differ for different migration stages. Our results, that lunar synchrony, local climate, and individual internal clocks appeared to account for much of the variation in migration timing in whip-poor-wills, underscore the value of measuring potentially interacting factors that shape migratory behavior at species, group, and individual levels. It remains unclear if, or how, maintaining individually repeatable annual migration schedules provides an adaptive benefit for whip-poor-wills or other lunaphilic migrants. Further clarifying the reasons for phenotypic variation in whip-poor-will migration timing will improve predictions of their abilities to adjust migratory movements under changing environmental conditions.

Spatial Nonstationarity in Phenological Responses of Nearctic Birds to Climate Variability.

Climate change is shifting the phenology of migratory animals earlier; yet an understanding of how climate change leads to variable shifts across populations, species and communities remains hampered by limited spatial and taxonomic sampling. In this study, we used a hierarchical Bayesian model to analyse 88,965 site-specific arrival dates from 222 bird species over 21 years to investigate the role of temperature, snowpack, precipitation, the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on the spring arrival timing of Nearctic birds. Interannual variation in bird arrival on breeding grounds was most strongly explained by temperature and snowpack, and less strongly by precipitation and climate oscillations. Sensitivity of arrival timing to climatic variation exhibited spatial nonstationarity, being highly variable within and across species. A high degree of heterogeneity in phenological sensitivity suggests diverging responses to ongoing climatic changes at the population, species and community scale, with potentially negative demographic and ecological consequences.

Phenology mediates direct and indirect interactions among co-occurring invasive plant species.

Why nonnative invasive plant species commonly co-occur, despite their competitive superiority and propensity to displace native species, remains a paradox in invasion biology. Negative interactions among competitively dominant invaders are potentially alleviated by two understudied mechanisms: seasonal priority effects, where phenological separation weakens the effect of competition on species with early phenology; and indirect facilitation, where competition between two species is mitigated by a third species. Although phenological separation has been speculated as a mechanism for explaining co-occurrence patterns of invasive plants, it has never been directly tested. In a greenhouse experiment, we tested the effect of phenological separation on direct and indirect interactions between three co-occurring invasive plant species found in the riparian forests of North America. These species have distinct natural phenological separation with reproduction in early spring (Ficaria verna), mid-spring (Alliaria petiolata), and late summer (Microstegium vimineum). When phenology was experimentally synchronized, direct pairwise interactions among invasive species were overwhelmingly negative, asymmetric, and unlikely to promote co-occurrence. However, increasing phenological separation generated seasonal priority effects, which weakened the effect of competition on species with early phenology. Furthermore, the addition of a third species generated indirect facilitative effects, which balanced competitive outcomes among the two weakest competitors. Based on these findings, we conclude that phenological separation modulates the strength of both seasonal priority effects and indirect facilitation within species interaction networks and may promote the co-occurrence of three common invasive species within this study system. We articulate how future studies can test the external validity of these findings in more complex environmental conditions and with a larger range of invasive plants.

Influence of climate change on flowering phenology of Yoshino cherry at its southern distribution limit.

To clarify the influence of climate change on the flowering phenology of Yoshino cherry at its southern distribution limit, we examined the relationship between cold exposure for endodormancy release (chilling requirement) and heat requirement for bud growth on Hachijojima Island, Japan, from 1948 to 2024. Cold exposure and heat requirement had a significant relationship approximated by linear or log-linear functions. In years with less cold exposure, the first flowering dates were much later than normal, in accordance with the higher heat requirement. Our results indicate that the variation in the balance between cold exposure and heat requirement depending on the pattern of annual air temperature change is likely to vary the first flowering date greatly at the distribution limit of Yoshino cherry.

How does PM2.5 affect forest phenology? Integrating PM2.5 into phenology models for warm-temperate forests in China.

Vegetation can regulate particulate matter (PM) through various mechanisms, such as facilitating the deposition of gases and particulates and purifying the air via photosynthesis. Conversely, PM directly damages leaves through dry deposition, while it also indirectly affects plant growth by altering weather conditions. However, the ways in which PM influence vegetation growth patterns, and the driving factors behind these impacts, remain unclear. In this study, we primarily focused on the start of the growing season (SOS) of warm-temperate zone forests in China with severe PM. SOS exhibited a trend of advancing at a rate of 0.15 days/yr during the study period from 2004 to 2022. We assessed the impact of satellite-derived fine PM (PM2.5) and coarser PM (PM10) on forest SOS across warm temperate forest regions in China using partial correlation analysis methods. After removing the effects of PM, we found that the correlation between temperature and SOS weakened. Additionally, PM exhibited a positive correlation with SOS in most pixels. Linear regression analysis revealed a significant negative correlation between relative humidity (RH) and the relationship between PM2.5 and SOS. However, in areas where RH exceeds 60.38%, this effect becomes unstable, presumably due to increased aerosol hygroscopicity or the saturation of aerosol particles. We also found that as road network density increased, the relationship between PM2.5 and SOS strengthened, whereas the impact of nightlight on this relationship was relatively weak. It is important to note that while the observed correlations reveal mechanisms by which PM2.5 affects SOS, they do not directly imply causation, as the complex interactions between environmental factors may influence these relationships. Finally, we incorporated PM2.5 into the phenology model and optimized its parameters using the least squares method, which improved the accuracy of SOS simulations and provided insights for predicting vegetation phenology in areas with severe PM pollution.

Real-time hazard assessment of maize based on the chilling injury process -- Using a standard curve to establish a daily cumulative assessment method.

Cold damage caused by low temperatures is known as chilling injury (CI), and it has consistently been one of the primary meteorological disasters affecting maize. With ongoing global climate change, the issue of chilling injury is becoming more prominent, exhibiting new characteristics and presenting new challenges. Consequently, understanding the disaster process and conducting a more refined real-time chilling injury identification have become significant challenges. In this study, we divided maize planting areas into seven maturity types based on the accumulated temperature, constructed a standard curve of the daily accumulated temperature from 1991 to 2020, proposed real-time identification indicators based on the CI process, and developed a real-time CI hazard assessment model. The results indicated that the model can capture independent CI events and rapidly determine the location, intensity, duration and scope of CIs, thereby providing a basis for accurately understanding the impact of chilling injury and taking timely countermeasures. The combination of accumulated temperature standard curves for seven maturity types of maize and the CI curve was used to construct the CI daily scale identification indicator, ΔEAT. Judgment thresholds for the CI identification indicators at various maturity levels were obtained by correlating them with historical disaster data. The frequency and intensity of maize CI gradually increased from the extremely late-maturing zone to the extremely early-maturing zone, with the seeding and emergence periods being the peak periods for CI. The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the three different degrees of CI events in 1992, 2004, and 2017 were consistent with the historical disaster records. Northeastern Inner Mongolia and most of Heilongjiang were found to be high-hazard areas for maize CIs. The constructed daily CI identification indicators can accurately and rapidly identify maize CIs, providing practical and targeted guidance for combating these injuries.

Climate change reduces the tension of conflicting selection pressures on breeding date in a passerine bird.

Unpredictably fluctuating environments create complex selective landscapes that shape the distribution of key life history traits. Identifying the mechanisms behind dynamic patterns of selection is difficult, yet essential for predicting responses to climate change. We combine long-term measures with field manipulation of natural selection on breeding date in a wild bird to investigate whether highly variable spring cold snaps drive fluctuating selection. We show that variation in cold snap intensity leads to fluctuating selection on breeding date-in weak cold snap years, selection was consistently negative; however, in strong cold snap years, its direction reversed. These patterns were mirrored in a field experiment; nests that were food supplemented during cold snaps avoided cold snap mortality leading earlier breeders to have higher fitness. In contrast, in the non-supplemented group earlier breeders had higher cold snap nest mortality and selection was positive. Using nearly a century of climate data, we show that cold snaps are becoming less frequent and paradoxically occurring later which should allow earlier breeders to avoid them, potentially releasing conflicting selection pressures and facilitating a rapid phenological shift. Thus, rather than constraining a species' ability to adapt, climate change can enable a rapid shift to a new phenotypic optimum.

Ectomycorrhizal fungi and the nitrogen economy of Nothofagus in southern Patagonia.

Subantarctic Nothofagus forests are the southernmost forests in the world, with negligible atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition. Most paradigms about the role of ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi in N cycling and plant N uptake at high latitudes have been tested in boreal coniferous forests, while in the southern hemisphere, ECM hosts are primarily angiosperms. Using ITS1 meta-barcoding, we characterized ECM and saprotrophic fungal communities in evergreen and deciduous Nothofagus forests forming monodominant and mixed stands in the archipelago of Tierra del Fuego (Chile and Argentina). We assessed the N economy of Nothofagus by correlating host species with fungal relative abundances, edaphic variables, net N mineralization, microbial biomass N and the activity of eight extracellular soil enzymes activities. The N economy of deciduous N. pumilio forests was strikingly similar to boreal coniferous forests, with the lowest inorganic N availability and net N mineralization, in correlation to higher relative abundances of ECM fungi with enzymatic capacity for organic N mobilization (genus Cortinarius). In contrast, the N economy of evergreen N. betuloides forests was predominantly inorganic and correlated with ECM lineages from the family Clavulinaceae, in acidic soils with poor drainage. Grassy understory vegetation in deciduous N. antarctica forests likely promoted saprotrophic fungi (i.e., genus Mortierella) in correlation with higher activities of carbon-degrading enzymes. Differences between Nothofagus hosts did not persist in mixed forests, illustrating the range of soil fertility of these ECM angiosperms and the underlying effects of soil and climate on Nothofagus distribution and N cycling in southern Patagonia.

Los bosques subantárticos de Nothofagus son los más australes del mundo, en donde la deposición atmosférica de nitrógeno (N) es casi nula. La mayoría de los estudios sobre el papel de hongos ectomicorrícicos (ECM) está basado en bosques de coníferas perennes, en el hemisferio norte; mientras que en el hemisferio sur los hospederos ECM son principalmente angiospermas. Caracterizamos las comunidades de hongos ECM y saprobios del suelo por secuenciación de ADN ambiental de la región ITS1 de 150 muestras recolectadas en bosques perennes, caducifolios y mixtos dominados por Nothofagus en el archipiélago de Tierra del Fuego (Argentina y Chile). Estudiamos la economía del N en diferentes bosques de Nothofagus, evaluando las correlaciones entre las comunidades de hongos ECM y saprobios con sus hospederos, variables edáficas, mineralización neta del N, biomasa microbiana del N y la actividad de ocho enzimas extracelulares. Encontramos que la economía del N de los bosques caducifolios de N. pumilio es sorprendentemente similar a la de los bosques de coníferas boreales, en los que encontramos los valores más bajos de N orgánico disponible y de mineralización neta del N, en correlación con mayor abundancia relativa de hongos ECM con capacidad enzimáticas de descomposición (género Cortinarius). En contraste, la economía del N de los bosques perennes de N. betuloides es predominantemente inorgánica y se correlaciona con abundancia alta de hongos ECM de la familia Clavulinaceae, preferentemente en suelos ácidos y anegadizos. La vegetación herbácea del sotobosque en los bosques caducifolios de N. antarctica posiblemente ha aumentado la abundancia de hongos saprobios (p. ej., Mortierella) que se correlaciona con una mayor actividad de enzimas de degradación del carbono. Las diferencias encontradas entre bosques perennes y caducifolios no persistieron en los bosques mixtos, lo que ilustra el gradiente de fertilidad del suelo de estas angiospermas formadoras de ectomicorrizas, y los efectos subyacentes del suelo y el clima en la distribución de Nothofagus y el ciclo del N en la región.

Differential warming at crown scale impacts walnut primary growth onset and secondary growth rate.

Trees are exposed to significant spatio-temporal thermal variations, which can induce intracrown discrepancies in the onset and dynamics of primary and secondary growth. In recent decades, an increase in late winter and early spring temperatures has been observed, potentially accelerating bud break, cambial activation and their potential coordination. Intracrown temperature heterogeneities could lead to asymmetric tree shapes unless there is a compensatory mechanism at the crown level. An original warming experiment was conducted on young Juglans regia trees in a greenhouse. From February to August, the average temperature difference during the day between warmed and control parts was 4°C. The warming treatment advanced the date of budbreak significantly, by up to 14 days. Warming did not alter secondary growth resumption but increased growth rates, leading to higher xylem cell production (twice as many) and to an increase in radial increment (+80% compared to control). Meristems resumptions were asynchronous without coordination in response to temperature. Buds on warmed branches began to swell two weeks prior to cambial division, which was one week earlier than on control branches. A difference in carbon and water remobilisation at the end of bud ecodormancy was noted under warming. Overall, our results argue for a lack of compensatory mechanisms at the crown scale, which may lead to significant changes in tree architecture in response to intra-crown temperature heterogeneities.

Altered expression of a raspberry homologue of VRN1 is associated with disruption of dormancy induction and misregulation of subsets of dormancy-associated genes.

Winter dormancy is a key process in the phenology of temperate perennials. Climate change is severely impacting its course leading to economic losses in agriculture. A better understanding of the underlying mechanisms, as well as the genetic basis of the different responses, are necessary for the development of climate-resilient cultivars. This study aims to provide an insight into winter dormancy in red raspberry (Rubus idaeus L). We report the transcriptomic profiles during dormancy in two raspberry cultivars with contrasting responses. The cultivar 'Glen Ample' showed a typical perennial phenology, whereas 'Glen Dee' registered consistent dormancy dysregulation, exhibiting active growth and flowering out of season. RNA-seq combined with weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) highlighted gene clusters in both genotypes that exhibited time-dependent expression profiles. Functional analysis of 'Glen Ample' gene clusters highlighted the significance of the cell and structural development prior to dormancy entry as well the role of genetic and epigenetic processes such as RNAi and DNA methylation in regulating gene expression. Whereas dormancy release in 'Glen Ample' was associated with upregulation of transcripts associated with the resumption of metabolism, nucleic acid biogenesis and processing signal response pathways. Many of the processes occurring in 'Glen Ample' were dysregulated in 'Glen Dee' and twenty-eight transcripts exhibiting time-dependent expression in 'Glen Ample' that also had an Arabidopsis homologue were not found in 'Glen Dee'. These included a gene with homology to Arabidopsis VRN1 (RiVRN1.1) that exhibited a sharp decline in expression following dormancy induction in 'Glen Ample'. Characterisation of the gene region in the 'Glen Dee' genome revealed two large insertions upstream of the ATG start codon. We propose that expression below detection level of a specific VRN1 homologue in 'Glen Dee' causes dormancy misregulation as a result of inappropriate expression of a subset of genes that are directly or indirectly regulated by RiVRN1.1.

Predicting fish spawning phenology for adaptive management: Integrating thermal drivers and fishery constraints.

Climate warming is causing shifts in reproductive phenology, a crucial life history trait determining offspring survival and population productivity. Evaluating these impacts on exploited marine resources is essential for implementing adaptive measures from an ecosystemic approach. This study introduces a statistical model designed to predict fish spawning phenology from sea surface temperature profiles, integrating mortality-corrected hatch-date distributions inferred from fishery-dependent samplings, along with the gonadosomatic index of adult individuals. When applied to different dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) populations across a broad latitudinal range, the model reasonably predicts the spawning phenology across its extensive thermal ranges, elucidating a direct relationship between mean annual temperature and the breadth of the spawning season. Despite the varying thermal profiles, results show a consistent timing of spawning peaks approximately 49 days before the peak in temperature. Importantly, these findings account for the impact of fishery constraints, such as seasonal closures or different sampling schedules, offering a robust tool for adjusting management practices in response to inter-annual temperature variations. These insights are critical for both short-term fishery management, including the strategic planning of seasonal closures, and long-term projections of spawning phenology shifts under changing thermal regimes. By enhancing our ability to predict spawning times, this research contributes significantly to the sustainable management of fish populations and the adaptive response to environmental changes.

Flower position within plants influences reproductive success both directly and via phenology.

PREMISE: In plants, within-individual trait variation might result from mechanisms related to ontogenetic contingency, i.e., to the position of a particular structure within the plant, previous developmental events, and/or the developmental environment. Flower position within inflorescences as well as inflorescence position within plants can influence resource provisioning, phenology, biotic interactions, and reproductive success. Despite the potential implications of within-individual variation in plant reproductive phenotypes, its causes and effects on reproductive success are still little explored. METHODS: We assessed how reproductive success, in terms of fruit and seed set, and seed predation of 5883 flowers in Lathyrus vernus were influenced by their position within and among racemes, to what extent relationships between flower position and reproductive success and seed predation were mediated by phenology, and if positional effects on reproductive success depended on the external environment. RESULTS: In three years, basal flowers and racemes opened earlier and had higher fruit set than distal. Basal flowers also experienced higher seed predation. Differences among racemes in fruit and seed set were largely related to phenology, while differences in fruit set, seed set, and seed predation within racemes were not. In one year, differences in fruit set among flowers at different positions depended on flowering duration. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the important role of ontogenetic contingency for within-individual variation in phenology and reproductive success. As the spatial distribution of reproductive structures affects both within-plant trait distributions and fitness, it is a likely target for natural selection.

Differential Responses of Bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus) Phenology and Density to a Changing Environment: A Study from Western Carpathians.

Environmental factors regulate the regeneration of mountain spruce forests, with drought, wind, and bark beetles causing the maximum damage. How these factors minimise spruce regeneration is still poorly understood. We conducted this study to investigate how the phenology and population dynamics of bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus L.), a dominant understory species of mountain spruce forests, are related to selected environmental factors that are modified by natural disturbances (bark beetle and wind). For this, we analysed bilberry at different sites affected by bark beetles and adjacent undisturbed forests in the Tatra National Park (TANAP) during the growing season (April-September) in 2016-2021, six years after the initial bark beetle attack. The observations were taken along an altitudinal gradient (1100-1250-1400 m a.s.l.) in two habitats (disturbed spruce forest-D, undisturbed spruce forest-U). We found that habitat and altitude influenced the onset of selected phenological phases, such as the earliest onset at low altitudes (1100 m a.s.l.) in disturbed forest stands and the latest at high altitudes (1400 m a.s.l.) in undisturbed stands. Although there were non-significant differences between habitats and altitudes, likely due to local climate conditions and the absence of a tree layer, these findings suggest that bilberry can partially thrive in disturbed forest stands. Despite temperature fluctuations during early spring, the longer growing season benefits its growth.

Precipitation and temperature timings underlying bioclimatic variables rearrange under climate change globally.

Modeling how climate change may affect the potential distribution of species and communities typically utilizes bioclimatic variables. Distribution predictions rely on the values of the bioclimatic variable (e.g., precipitation of the wettest quarter). However, the ecological meaning of most of these variables depends strongly on the within-year position of a specific climate period (SCP), for example, the wettest quarter of the year, which is often overlooked. Our aim was to determine how the within-year position of the SCPs would shift (SCP shift) in reaction to climate change in a global context. We calculated the deviations of the future within-year position of the SCPs relative to the reference period. We used four future time periods, four scenarios, and four CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) to provide an ensemble of expectations regarding SCP shifts and locate the spatial hotspots of the shifts. Also, the size and frequency of the SCP shifts were subjected to linear models to evaluate the importance of the impact modeler's decision on time period, scenario, and GCM. We found ample examples of SCP shifts exceeding 2 months, with 6-month shifts being predicted as well. Many areas in the tropics are expected to experience both temperature and precipitation-related shifts, but precipitation-related shifts are abundantly predicted for the temperate and arctic zones as well. The combined shifts at the Equator reinforce the likelihood of the emergence of no-analogue climates there. The shifts become more pronounced as time and scenario progress, while GCMs could not be ranked in a clear order in this respect. For most SCPs, the modeler's decision on the GCM was the least important, while the choice of time period was typically more important than the choice of scenario. Future predictive distribution models should account for SCP shifts and incorporate the phenomenon in the modeling efforts.