Trends in fertility and abortion in Czechia.

The assessment of the development of fertility and abortion rates over the last three decades shows that Czechia has reached the top position in Europe with a total fertility rate of 1.83 children per woman in 2021. The postponement of fertility to women's older age, which was behind the sharp drop in fertility to 1.1, has been gradually slowed down and halted between 2015 and 2021. In recent years, there has been an increase in fertility rates for women aged 30 and older as well as a balanced increase for women under 30. In the European context Czechia has maintained its position as a country with lower rates of reproductive ageing. The favourable demographic position of Czechia among European countries is also illustrated by the relatively low level of the abortion rate. The postponement of female fertility to older ages has not been accompanied by an increase in the abortion rate among young women, but on the contrary a decline in fertility has been accompanied by a decline in the abortion rate. Given the year-on-year increase in total fertility (from 1.71 in 2020 to 1.83 in 2021), the initial effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility can be assessed positively. However, the subsequent decline to 1.62 in 2022 is already the result of a combination of adverse effects stemming from the consequences of antipandemic measures and worsening economic conditions, to which new security risks associated with the war in Ukraine have subsequently been added. This has created the conditions for a further postponement of fertility until women are older.

Exploring the mystical relationship between the Moon, Sun, and birth rate.

OBJECTIVE: The Moon has a noticeable influence on the Earth due to its gravity, the most visible manifestation of which are tides. We aimed to see if the Moon's daily cycle, like the Sun's, affects the prevalence and incidence of childbirth. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we examined all deliveries at the Academic Hospital of Udine between 2001 and 2019. All consecutive singleton pregnancies with spontaneous labor and vaginal delivery were included. RESULTS: During the period, 13,349 singleton pregnancies with spontaneous labor and vaginal delivery were delivered in 6939 days. A significantly higher prevalence of deliveries was found with the Moon above the horizon (50.63% vs. 49.37%, p < 0.05). Moreover, during the day, there was a significantly higher prevalence of deliveries than during nighttime (53.74% vs. 45.79%, p < 0.05). Combining the Moon and Sun altitude, the majority of deliveries were registered when both were above the horizon (27.39% vs. 26.13%, 23.25%, or 23.24%, p < 0.05). These findings were confirmed in multivariate analysis after adjusting for parity, gestational age, or season. We found no correlation between birth and the Moon phase. CONCLUSIONS: Our data support the interaction of the Moon and the Sun in determining the time of birth. More research is needed to understand these phenomena and improve our understanding of labor initiation mechanisms.

State of South Dakota's Child: 2023.

In 2022, there was a decrease in births in the state with 111 fewer resident newborns than in the previous year. This represented a decrease of 1% of its white and 3.5% of its AIBO (American Indian, Black and Other) births. The 2022 birth rate per 1,000 population for the state (12.3) is higher than observed nationally (10.9) but matches its 2020 rate that was an historic low. Approximately 22% of all births in 2022 were AIBO and this percent of the state's entire birth cohort has decreased in the past several years. The American Indian contribution to the AIBO cohort has also decreased as its racial diversity has increased. The percent of births that are low birth weight has consistently been lower in South Dakota than nationally. An increase of 16 infant deaths in 2022 from 2021 and the decreased number of births led to an increase in the infant mortality rate (IMR = deaths in first year of life per 1,000 live births) from 6.3 to 7.8, but this 2022 IMR is not statistically significantly higher than its previous five-year mean. Further, the 2022 increase in the IMR was almost entirely among white infants with the post neonatal mortality rate (PNMR = deaths between 28 and 365 days of life) decreasing between these two years for AIBO infants. Nonetheless, the state's five year mean rates of death (2018-2022) are significantly higher for the AIBO than white infants for the neonatal (0-27 days) and post neonatal periods of the first year of life. Recently, however, the ratio of AIBO to white post neonatal mortality rate (PNMR) has decreased, but increased for the neonatal mortality rate (NMR). Infants in South Dakota are significantly more likely between 2018 and 2022 to die of congenital anomalies, sudden unexpected infant death (SUID), and accidents/homicides than in the United States in 2021. SUID remains the leading cause of post neonatal death and its risk may be decreased when babies are placed to sleep supine and alone in environments that are devoid of soft hazards.

Predicting fertility, neonatal and perinatal mortality, and stillbirths for evaluation of the needs for perinatal care in the future post-war reconstruction of Ukraine.

OBJECTIVE: Aim: To predict trends in fertility, neonatal and perinatal mortality, and stillbirth rates to ascertain future perinatal care requirements during the post-war reconstruction in Ukraine. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Materials and Methods: The study uses the data from the Centre for Medical Statistics of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, covering the years 2012 to 2022. The data analysis was by a univariate linear regression model. The quality of these models was evaluated using the coefficient of determination, R2. RESULTS: Results: In 2022, the birth rate in Ukraine had declined to 2.5 times lower than that of 2011. The period was characterized by a notable increase in the incidence of premature births and in neonates with birth weights under 1000 grams and between 1000 to 2499 grams. While the neonatal mortality rate decreased by 3.7 times, there remains a statistically significant (p<0.05) increase in the mortality rates of premature infants and neonates weighing less than 1000 grams. The stillbirth rate in Ukraine remains constant; however, it exceeds that of the European Union. Predictions indicate a rise in antenatal mortality and a reduction in both intranatal and perinatal mortality. As of 2022, the perinatal mortality rate in Ukraine made up 7.72 per 1000 live births, which is significantly higher than the rate in the European Union. CONCLUSION: Conclusions: The optimization of the network of healthcare facilities and resources should be prioritized, in response to the reliable decline in the birth rate. This necessitates improvements in the medical care for premature and low birth weight infants, and efforts for preventing stillbirths.

Socioeconomic and residence-based inequalities in adolescent fertility in 39 African countries.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the advancement in sexual and reproductive healthcare services and several public health measures aimed at controlling fertility rates, countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) still experience higher adolescent fertility rates than other low-and middle-income countries. This study examined the disparities in adolescent fertility in 39 countries in SSA, focusing on socioeconomic and residence-based dimensions. METHODS: This study involved a secondary analysis of data obtained from 39 recent Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in SSA. The measures of difference (D), ratio (R), population attributable fraction (PAF), and population attributable risk (PAR) were estimated using the Health Equity Assessment Tool (HEAT) software version 3.1 developed by the World Health Organization. The measures: D, R, PAF, and PAR were used to examine the inequalities in adolescent fertility across the socioeconomic and residence-based dimensions. RESULTS: Out of the 39 countries included in the study, Guinea (D=27.70), Niger (D=27.50), Nigeria (D=23.90), and Côte d'Ivoire (D=23.60) exhibited the most significant residence-based inequalities in the rate of adolescent fertility, with the higher rate observed among adolescents in rural areas. Rwanda was the sole country that showed a slight inclination towards rural inequality in terms of the rate of adolescent fertility, with a value of D = -0.80. The burden of adolescent fertility was disproportionately higher among young women with low economic status across all the countries, exacerbating wealth-based inequities. The countries with the largest absolute discrepancies were Nigeria (D=44.70), Madagascar (D=41.10), Guinea (D=41.00), and Cameroon (D=40.20). We found significant disparities in educational attainment contributing to unequal inequalities in adolescent fertility, particularly among young women who lack access to formal education. Countries such as Madagascar (D=59.50), Chad (D=55.30), Cameroon (D=54.60), and Zimbabwe (D=50.30) had the most significant absolute disparities. CONCLUSION: This study revealed that young women residing in rural areas, those in households with low economic status and those with limited educational opportunities experience a disproportionately high burden of adolescent fertility across the 39 countries in SSA. The current findings offer valuable information to governmental entities at all levels regarding the need to ensure the provision of equitable, accessible, and dependable sexual and reproductive health services to the populace, particularly for young women. Therefore, the various stakeholders need to enhance the effectiveness of health policies and legislation pertaining to adolescent women living in rural areas, those from economically disadvantaged households, and those with limited or no access to formal education. Such interventions could potentially reduce adolescent fertility rates and mitigate the adverse maternal and child outcomes associated with high adolescent fertility in SSA.

Adolescent fertility is a major health problem for many developing countries, especially those in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Although several sexual and reproductive health initiatives have been introduced in these countries, the number of births among adolescents continues to be high. The present study looked at the socioeconomic and geographical differences in adolescent fertility across 39 countries in SSA using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys embedded into the World Health Organization's Health Equity Assessment Toolkit (WHO HEAT) software. The study found that in countries like Guinea, Niger, Nigeria, and Côte d'Ivoire, the rates of adolescent fertility varied a lot, with higher rates in rural areas. Generally, poorer young women were more likely to have babies, which made the gap between the rich and the poor even wider. Nigeria, Madagascar, Guinea, and Cameroon had the biggest differences. Education also played a role. In countries like Madagascar, Chad, Cameroon, and Zimbabwe, young women who did not go to school (had no education) were more likely to have children as teenagers.  The study showed that in all 39 countries, young women living in rural areas, those who were poorer and those who did not go to school (had no education) faced a bigger problem with adolescent fertility. The study suggests that if people who make health policies pay more attention to teenage girls in the rural areas, those who are poor and do not have much education, they could make a significant difference in reducing adolescent fertility.

National Population Growth Rate, Its Components, and Subnational Contributions: A Research Note.

A population's current growth rate is determined jointly by changes in fertility, mortality, and migration. This overall growth rate is also the average of age-specific growth rates, which can be decomposed into the result of historical changes in fertility, mortality, and migration. However, doing so requires more than 100 years of historical data, meaning that such analyses are possible only in a select few populations. In this research note, we propose an adapted version of the variable-r model to measure contributions to the population growth rate for countries with shorter demographic series. In addition, we extend this model to explore the contribution of subnational changes to the national population growth rate. Our results demonstrate that the age-specific growth rates obtained from short historical series, say 25 years, closely match those of the longer series. These abbreviated age-specific growth rates closely resemble the growth rate at birth of their respective cohorts, which is the major determinant of population growth, except at older ages where mortality becomes the main explanatory element. Exploring subnational populations, we find considerable heterogeneity in the age profile of the components of growth and find that the most populous regions tend to have an outsized impact on national-level growth.

Scenarios of Delayed First Births and Associated Cohort Fertility Levels.

Fertility rates among individuals in their 20s have fallen sharply across Europe over the past 50 years. The implications of delayed first births for fertility levels in modern family regimes remain little understood. Using microsimulation models of childbearing and partnership for the 1970-1979 birth cohorts in Italy, Great Britain, Sweden, and Norway, we implement fictive scenarios that reduce the risk of having a first child before age 30 and examine fertility recovery mechanisms for aggregate fertility indicators (the proportion of women with at least one, two, three, or four children; cohort completed fertility rate). Exposure to a first birth increases systematically in the ages following the simulated reduction in first-birth risks, leading to a structural recovery in childbearing that varies across countries according to their fertility and partnership regimes. Full recovery requires an increase in late first-birth risks, with greater increases in countries where late family formation is uncommon and average family sizes are larger: in scenarios where early fertility declines substantially (a linear decline from 50% at age 15 to 0% at age 30), first-birth risks above age 30 would have to increase by 54% in Great Britain, 40% in Norway and Sweden, and 20% in Italy to keep completed fertility constant.

Assessment of a Decade of Change in U.S. Assisted Reproductive Technology Cumulative Live-Birth Rates: 2004-2009 Compared With 2014-2020.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects of demographic shifts, changes in contemporaneous clinical practices, and technologic innovation on assisted reproductive technology (ART) success rates by conducting an analysis of cumulative live-birth rates across different time periods, age groups, and infertility diagnoses. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of autologous linked cycles comparing cumulative live-birth rates over successive cycles from patients undergoing their first retrieval between 2014 and 2019 in the SART CORS (Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology Clinic Outcome Reporting System) database. All cycles reported for these individuals up to 2020 were included for analysis. We compared cumulative live-birth rates stratified by age and infertility cause with published data from the 2004-2009 SART CORS database. RESULTS: From 2014 to 2019, 447,042 patients underwent their first autologous index retrieval, resulting in 1,007,374 cycles and 252,215 live births over the period of 2014 to 2020. In contrast, between 2004 and 2008, 246,740 patients underwent 471,208 cycles, resulting in 140,859 births by 2009. Noteworthy shifts in demographics were observed, with an increase in people of color seeking reproductive technology (57.9% vs 51.7%, P <.001). There was also an increase in patients with diminished ovarian reserve and ovulatory disorders and a decrease in endometriosis, tubal, and male factor infertility ( P <.001). Previously associated with decreased odds of live birth, frozen embryo transfer and preimplantation genetic testing showed increased odds in 2014-2020. Preimplantation genetic testing rose from 3.4% to 36.0% and was associated with a lower cumulative live-birth rate for those younger than age 35 years ( P <.001) but a higher cumulative live-birth rate for those aged 35 years or older ( P <.001). Comparing 2014-2020 with 2004-2009 shows that the overall cumulative live-birth rate improved for patients aged 35 years or older and for all infertility diagnoses except ovulatory disorders ( P <.001). CONCLUSION: This analysis provides insights into the changing landscape of ART treatments in the United States over the past two decades. The observed shifts in demographics, clinical practices, and technology highlight the dynamic nature of an evolving field of reproductive medicine. These findings may offer insight for clinicians to consider in counseling patients and to inform future research endeavors in the field of ART.

The Role of Climatic, Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors in the Natural Movement of Urban Populations in Kazakhstan, 2012-2020: An Analysis from a Middle-Income Country in Central Asia.

BACKGROUND: This study addresses the importance of identifying key characteristics influencing demographic indicators for urban populations, emphasizing the need to consider regional climatic features and ecological factors. The research utilized data from ten main regional cities across the Republic of Kazakhstan. METHODS: This study involved a retrospective analysis based on secondary data from official sources spanning 2012-2020. We employed correlation analysis and multidimensional regression models. RESULTS: Noteworthy predictors for crude birth rate included the influence of effective temperature (ß = 0.842, p < 0.0001), marriage rate (ß = 0.780, p < 0.0001), Gini coefficient (ß = -27.342, p = 0.020) and divorce rate (ß = -2.060, p < 0.0001), with overall strong model performance (R2 = 0.940). The degree of atmospheric pollution (ß = -0.949, p = 0.044), effective temperature (ß = -0.294, p < 0.0001) and Gini coefficient (ß = 19.923, p = 0.015) were the predictors for crude mortality rate, with a high model fit (R2 = 0.796). CONCLUSIONS: The study unveils significant relationships between demographic indicators (crude birth rate, mortality rate) and variables like effective temperature, marriage rate, divorce rate, Gini coefficient, physician density and others. This analysis of climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors influencing demographic indicators may help in promoting specific measures to address public health issues in Kazakhstan.

When everyone's doing it: The relative effects of geographical context and social determinants of health on teen birth rates.

Geographic disparities in teen birth rates in the U.S. persist, despite overall reductions over the last two decades. Research suggests these disparities might be driven by spatial variations in social determinants of health (SDOH). An alternative view is that "place" or "geographical context" affects teen birth rates so that they would remain uneven across the U.S. even if all SDOH were constant. We use multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) to quantify the relative effects of geographical context, independent of SDOH, on county-level teen birth rates across the U.S. Findings indicate that even if all counties had identical compositions with respect to SDOH, strong geographic disparities in teen birth rates would still persist. Additionally, local parameter estimates show the relationships between several components of SDOH and teen birth rates vary over space in both direction and magnitude, confirming that global regression techniques commonly employed to examine these relationships likely obscure meaningful contextual differences in these relationships. Findings from this analysis suggest that reducing geographic disparities in teen birth rates will require not only ameliorating differences in SDOH across counties but also combating community norms that contribute to high rates of teen birth, particularly in the southern U.S. Further, the results suggest that if geographical context is not incorporated into models of SDOH, the effects of such determinants may be interpreted incorrectly.

What's Behind the Dramatic Pre-2020 Declines in Hispanic/Latina Adolescent Childbearing? Decomposing Change by Age, Origin, and Nativity.

PURPOSE: To assess whether the large declines in adolescent childbearing among Hispanic adolescents over the period 2000-2019 have been driven by co-occurring changes in the composition of the Hispanic population and, if so, whether they have done so differentially by Hispanic subgroup. METHODS: We use birth counts from the United States vital statistics system and population denominators from the United States decennial census long form 5-percent Public Use Microdata and the American Community Survey to conduct a decomposition analysis apportioning observed declines in Hispanic adolescent childbearing to: (1) compositional shifts in nativity, age, and region-of-origin and (2) subgroup changes in childbearing rates. RESULTS: The Hispanic adolescent fertility rate fell by over 71% from 2000 to 2019, with Mexican-Origin, United States-born, and younger adolescents exhibiting the steepest declines (79%, 70%, and 80% declines, respectively). Results from the decomposition analysis show that almost 90% of the decline is due to within-group rate change, with some variability by subgroup and by decade. Only 10% of the decline was due to compositional changes, with shifts in nativity driving much of the effect. DISCUSSION: Declines in Hispanic adolescent childbearing over the last decades have occurred in spite of substantial shifts in the composition of the Hispanic population, not because of them. These findings set the stage for a more detailed examination of the drivers of change in sexual activity, contraceptive use, and abortion, all of which are proximate determinants of adolescent pregnancy and childbearing. Additionally, a focus on more distal factors is needed, including the role that changing political, societal, and economic conditions in the United States have for early fertility patterns.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

BACKGROUND: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. METHODS: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. FINDINGS: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. INTERPRETATION: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The impact of juvenile curfews on teenage birth rates.

I examine the effect of city-level juvenile curfews on teenage birth rates using the National Center for Health Statistics birth data from 1982 to 2002. I compare differences in birth rates between younger and older age groups in cities with and without curfew ordinances. Before curfew adoption, the age differential in birth rates trended similarly for cities that did and did not adopt a curfew. There were significant decreases in the age differential birth rates in cities that adopted a curfew relative to cities that did not. Curfews reduced birth rates by approximately 3 births per 1000 women ages 15-17. I find a decrease in birth rates among white women. The main results are corroborated using a variety of robustness checks and specifications.

Safer sex? The effect of AIDS risk on birth rates.

Behavioral adjustments to mitigate increasing risk of STIs can increase or decrease the likelihood of pregnancy. This paper measures the effects of the arrival and spread of AIDS across U.S. cities in the 1980s and 1990s on births and abortions. I show that the AIDS epidemic increased the birth rate by 0.55 percent and the abortion rate by 1.77 percent. I find support for two underlying mechanisms to explain the increase in pregnancies. Some women opted into monogamous partnerships in response to the AIDS epidemic, with a corresponding increase in the marriage rate and improvement in infant health. Others switched from prescription contraceptive methods to condoms. These behavioral changes lowered the incidence of other sexually transmitted infections, but increased both planned and unplanned pregnancies.

Iatrogenic and demographic determinants of the national plural birth increase.

OBJECTIVE: To study the contribution of ovulation induction and ovarian stimulation, in vitro fertilization (IVF), and unassisted conception to the increase in national plural births in the United States, a significant contributor to adverse maternal and infant health outcomes. DESIGN: National and IVF-assisted plural birth data were derived from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Vital Statistics System (1967-2021, after introduction of Clomiphene Citrate in the United States) and the National Assisted Reproductive Technology Surveillance System (1997-2021), respectively. SETTING: Not applicable. PATIENT(S): Not applicable. INTERVENTION(S): Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): In addition to IVF-assisted plural births, the contributions of unassisted conception to plural births among women aged <35 and ≥35 years were estimated using plural birth rates from 1949-1966 and a Bayesian logistic model with race and age as independent variables. The contribution of ovulation induction and ovarian stimulation was estimated as the difference between national plural births and IVF-assisted and unassisted counterparts. RESULT(S): From 1967-2021, the national twin birth rate increased 1.7-fold to a 2014 high (33.9/1,000 live births), then declined to 31.2/1,000 live births; the triplet and higher order birth rate increased 6.7-fold to a 1998 high (1.9/1,000 live births), then declined to 0.8/1,000 live births. In 2021, the contribution of unassisted conception among women aged <35 years to the national plural births was 56.1%, followed by ovulation induction and ovarian stimulation (19.5%), unassisted conception among women aged ≥35 years (16.8%), and IVF (7.6%). During 2009-2021, the contribution of ovulation induction and ovarian stimulation has remained stable, the contribution of unassisted conception among women aged <35 and ≥35 years has increased, and the contribution of IVF has decreased. CONCLUSION(S): Ovulation induction and ovarian stimulation are leading iatrogenic contributors to plural births. They are, therefore, targets for intervention to reduce the adverse maternal and infant health outcomes associated with plural births. Maternal age of ≥35 years is a significant contributor to the national plural birth increase.

Resultados de las consultas municipales de atención a la pareja infértil 2017-2020 / Results of the Municipal Consultations for Infertile Couple Care 2017-2020

Introducción: La infertilidad afecta hasta un 15 por ciento de las parejas en edad reproductiva en el mundo y es uno de los factores que inciden en la baja natalidad de Cuba. Antes del 2016 no existían consultas de infertilidad en todos los municipios y era bajo el número de embarazos logrados, lo que motivó la decisión de extenderlas a todos los municipios del país. Objetivo: Describir los resultados de las consultas municipales de infertilidad en los primeros cuatro años de su implementación (2017-2020). Métodos: Estudio observacional transversal de casos, atendidos en las 82 consultas municipales de infertilidad existentes antes del 2016 y después de su generalización a todos los municipios del país. Resultados: En las consultas municipales han sido atendidas 81,3 por ciento de las parejas infértiles que lo demandan, se incrementó el número de consultas ofrecidas de 24 215 en el año 2016 a 140 183 en el 2020. En ese período se elevó en 10 por ciento los embarazos obtenidos, 63,5 por ciento de los logrados en todos los niveles de atención. Conclusiones: Las consultas municipales incrementaron sus resultados entre el año 2017 al 2020 y los nacimientos obtenidos pueden ser considerados como una contribución del sector salud a reducir la baja natalidad que experimenta el país(AU)

Introduction: Infertility affects up to 15percent of couples of reproductive age in the world and is one of the factors affecting the low birth rate in Cuba. Before 2016, infertility consultations did not exist in all municipalities and the number of pregnancies achieved was low, which motivated the decision to extend them to all municipalities in the country. Aim: To describe the results of municipal infertility consultations in the first four years of their implementation (2017-2020). Methods: Cross-sectional observational study of cases, attended in the 82 municipal infertility consultations existing before 2016 and after their generalization to all municipalities in the country. Results: 81.3percent of the infertile couples requesting treatment were attended in the municipal consultations. The number of consultations offered increased from 24 215 in 2016 to 140 183 in 2020. In that period, pregnancies obtained increased by 10 percent, 63.5 percent of those achieved at all levels of care. Conclusions: Municipal consultations increased their results from 2017 to 2020 and the births obtained can be considered as a contribution of the health sector to reduce the low birth rate experienced by the country(AU)