Understanding the child mortality decline in Guinea-Bissau: the role of population-level nutritional status measured by mid-upper arm circumference.

BACKGROUND: Malnutrition is considered an important contributing factor to child mortality, and the mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) is regarded as one of the better anthropometric predictors of child mortality. We explored whether the decline in child mortality over recent decades could be explained by changes in children's MUAC. METHODS: This prospective study analysed individual-level data from 47 731 children from the capital of Guinea-Bissau followed from 3 months until 36 months of age over 2003 to 2016. We used standardization to compare the mortality rate as if only the MUAC distribution had changed between an early period (2003-05) and a late period (2014-16). We adjusted the analyses for age, sex, socioeconomic-related possessions and maternal education. RESULTS: A total of 949 deaths were included in the analysis. The adjusted mortality rate was 18.9 [95% confidence interval (CI) 14.3-23.3] deaths per 1000 person-years (pyrs) in the early period and declined to 4.4 (95% CI 2.9-6.0) deaths per 1000 pyrs in the late period, a 77% (95% CI 71-83%) reduction in the mortality rate. At all calendar years, the MUAC distribution in the population was close to the WHO reference population. MUAC below -1 z-score was associated with increased child mortality. The change in MUAC distribution from the early period to the late period (in the early period mortality standardization) corresponded to 1.5 (95% CI 1.0-2.2) fewer deaths per 1000 pyrs, equivalent to 11% (95% CI 7-14%) of the observed change in child mortality. CONCLUSIONS: From 2003 to 2016, child mortality in urban Guinea-Bissau declined considerably but, though a low MUAC was associated with increased mortality, changes in the MUAC distribution in the population explained little of the decline. Understanding the driving factors of child mortality decline can help scope tomorrow's interventions.

Reduced Mortality After Oral Polio Vaccination and Increased Mortality After Diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis Vaccination in Children in a Low-income Setting.

PURPOSE: The diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine (DTP) and oral polio vaccine (OPV) were introduced in children 3 of 5 months of age in 1981-1983 in Bandim, in the capital of Guinea-Bissau. Because DTP has been linked to deleterious nonspecific effects (NSEs) and OPV to beneficial NSEs, we followed up this cohort to 3 years of age and examined the effects of DTP with OPV on all-cause mortality and the interactions of DTP and OPV with the measles vaccine (MV). METHODS: DTP and OPV were offered at 3 monthly community weighing sessions. Vaccination groups were defined by the last vaccine received. We compared overall mortality for different groups in Cox proportional hazards regression models, reporting hazards ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs. FINDINGS: The study cohort included 1491 children born in Bandim from December 1980 to December 1983. From 3 to 35 months of age, with censoring for MV, children vaccinated with DTP and/or OPV had higher mortality than both unvaccinated children (HR = l.66; 95% CI, 1.03-2.69) and OPV-only vaccinated children (HR = 2.81; 95% CI, 1.02-7.69); DTP-only vaccinated children had higher mortality than OPV-only vaccinated children (HR = 3.38; 95% CI, 1.15--9.93). In the age group of 3-8 months, before MV is administered, DTP-only vaccination was associated with a higher mortality than DTP with OPV (HR = 3.38; 95% CI, 1.59-7.20). Between 9 and 35 months of age, when MV is given, DTP-vaccinated and MV-unvaccinated children had higher mortality (HR = 2.76; 95% CI, 1.36-5.59) than children who had received MV after DTP, and among children who received DTP with MV or after MV, DTP-only vaccination was associated with a higher mortality than DTP with OPV (HR = 6.25; 95% CI, 2.55-15.37). IMPLICATIONS: Because the 2 vaccines had differential effects and the healthiest children were vaccinated first, selection biases are unlikely to explain the estimated impact on child survival. OPV had beneficial NSEs, and administration of OPV with DTP may have reduced the negative effects of DTP.

Maternal Priming: Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) Vaccine Scarring in Mothers Enhances the Survival of Their Child With a BCG Vaccine Scar.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Maternal priming might enhance the beneficial nonspecific effects (NSEs) of live measles vaccination (MV). Children with a bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine scar have a lower mortality rate than those without a scar that is not explained by protection against tuberculosis. We examined the hypothesis that BCG scarring would have a stronger effect on a child if the mother also had a BCG scar. METHODS: In a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of early MV in children aged 4.5 months, the BCG-scar status of the children and their mother were registered at enrollment at 4.5 months of age. The children were followed up until they were 36 months of age. Using a Cox proportional hazards model, we compared mortality rate ratios according to maternal and child BCG-scar status after adjusting for where the BCG vaccine was given (the national hospital or elsewhere). We censored for other interventions that have immunomodulating effects on child survival, including neonatal vitamin A supplementation and early MV. RESULTS: A total of 2213 children had not received neonatal vitamin A supplementation and early MV; 83% of these children and 44% of the mothers had a BCG scar. Children whose mother had a BCG scar were not more likely to have a BCG scar than those whose mother did not have a BCG scar (risk ratio, 1.01 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.98-1.05]). Among the children, having a BCG scar was associated with a 41% (95% CI, 5%-64%) lower mortality between the ages of 4.5 and 36 months. The reduction in mortality was 66% (95% CI, 33%-83%) if the mother also had a BCG scar but only 8% (95% CI, -83% to 53%) if the mother had no BCG scar (test of interaction, P = .04). CONCLUSIONS: Maternal BCG priming might be important for the effect of BCG vaccination on child survival. Ensuring better BCG vaccine scarring among mothers and children could have a considerable effect on child mortality levels.

Early Vaccination With Bacille Calmette-Guérin-Denmark or BCG-Japan Versus BCG-Russia to Healthy Newborns in Guinea-Bissau: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination remains a cornerstone against tuberculosis. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have demonstrated that BCG-Denmark lowers all-cause mortality, but a recent RCT found no effect of BCG-Russia. Observational studies indicate that the genetically divergent BCG strains have different effects. METHODS: This was a parallel-group, open-label RCT conducted at the National Hospital in Guinea-Bissau. Healthy neonates were randomized 1:1 to BCG-Denmark (2851 randomized, 2840 analyzed) vs BCG-Russia (2845 randomized, 2837 analyzed). We hypothesized that BCG-Denmark would reduce morbidity (primary outcome) and mortality while inducing more BCG reactions and purified protein derivative (PPD) responses (secondary outcomes). Halfway through the trial, production of BCG-Denmark was halted, and the trial continued comparing BCG-Japan (3191 neonates randomized, 3184 analyzed) with BCG-Russia (3170 randomized, 3160 analyzed). Mortality and morbidity data were collected by telephone, at home visits, and at the National Hospital and assessed in Cox models providing 6-week mortality rate ratios (MRRs) and hospitalization incidence rate ratios (IRRs). RESULTS: By age 6 weeks, there were 140 and 130 admissions among neonates vaccinated with BCG-Denmark and BCG-Russia, respectively (IRR, 1.08 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .84-1.37]). For BCG-Japan, there were 185 admissions vs 161 admissions for BCG-Russia (IRR, 1.15 [95% CI, .93-1.43]). The 6-week mortality did not differ: BCG-Denmark/BCG-Russia (MRR, 1.15 [95% CI, .74-1.80]); BCG-Japan/BCG-Russia (MRR, 0.71 [95% CI, .43-1.19]). BCG-Denmark and BCG-Japan induced more BCG scars and PPD reactions than BCG-Russia. CONCLUSIONS: BCG strains did not affect morbidity. BCG-Denmark and BCG-Japan were more immunogenic than BCG-Russia by the measures traditionally viewed as surrogates for successful immunization. The implications of strain differences for tuberculosis protection and overall health warrant further study. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02447536.