New Diagnostic and Prognostic Models for the Development of Alcoholic Cirrhosis Based on Genetic Predisposition and Alcohol History.

Liver cirrhosis development is a multifactorial process resulting from a combination of environmental and genetic factors. The aim of the study was to develop accurate non-invasive diagnostic and prognostic models for alcoholic cirrhosis. Consecutive subjects with at-risk alcohol intake were retrospectively enrolled (110 cirrhotic patients and 411 non-cirrhotics). At enrollment, the data about lifetime drinking history were collected and all patients were tested for Patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3 (PNPLA3) rs738409, Transmembrane 6 Superfamily 2 (TM6SF2) rs58542926, and hydroxysteroid 17-beta dehydrogenase 13 (HSD17B13) rs72613567 variants. In cross-sectional analyses, models for the diagnosis of cirrhosis were developed using multivariate logistic regression. A predictive score for cirrhosis development over 24 years was built by evaluating time-dependent AUC curves. The best diagnostic accuracy was demonstrated by the model, which also includes daily alcohol consumption, duration of hazardous alcohol use, and genetic variants, with AUCs of 0.951 (95% CI 0.925-0.977) and 0.887 (95% CI 0.925-0.977) for cirrhosis and compensated cirrhosis, respectively. The predictive model for future cirrhosis development (AUC of 0.836 95% CI: 0.769-0.904) accounted for age at onset of at-risk alcohol consumption and the number of PNPLA3 and HSD17B13 variant alleles. We have developed accurate genetic and alcohol consumption models for the diagnosis of alcoholic cirrhosis and the prediction of its future risk.

Electronic Outpatient Referral System for Liver Transplant Improves Appropriateness and Allows First Visit Triage.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Missed or inappropriate referrals of potential candidates for liver transplantation (LT) are common and traditional referral methods (tRs) do not allow for efficient triage. We investigated the effects of a website developed for electronic outpatient referral to LT (eRW-LT) on these issues. METHODS: We prospectively collected data on all consecutive outpatient referrals to 2 Italian LT centers from January 2015 to December 2019. In the second half of the study, starting from July 2017, referring physicians had the option of using eRW-LT, quickly obtaining the judgment on the appropriateness and urgency of the visit from a transplant hepatologist. RESULTS: In the second half of the study, there were 99 eRW-LTs and 96 traditional referrals (new tRs), representing a 17.4% increase over the 161 traditional referrals (old tRs) of the first half. With eRW-LT, 11.1% of referrals were judged inappropriate online without booking a visit. Appropriateness, judged at the time of the first visit, was 59.6%, 56.2%, and 94.3% with old tRs, new tRs, and eRW-LT, respectively. Considering the appropriate visits, the median waiting time in days between referral date and first visit appointment was significantly shorter for urgent visits referred with eRW-LT (5.0; 95% CI, 4.8-9.3) compared with nonurgent visits sent with the same system (17.0; 95% CI, 11.5-25.0; P < .0001), those referred with old tRs (14.0; 95% CI, 8.0-23.0; P < .001) and with new tRs (16.0; 95% CI, 10.0-23.0; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: eRW-LT allows an increase in the number of referrals for LT, ensuring effective triage and better appropriateness of visits.

Low serum magnesium concentration is associated with the presence of viable hepatocellular carcinoma tissue in cirrhotic patients.

This study aimed to ascertain, for the first time, whether serum magnesium (Mg) concentration is affected by the presence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We retrospectively enrolled consecutive cirrhotic patients with a diagnosis of HCC (n = 130) or without subsequent evidence of HCC during surveillance (n = 161). Serum levels of Mg were significantly (P < 0.001) lower in patients with HCC than in those without (median [interquartile range]: 1.80 [1.62-1.90] mg/dl vs. 1.90 [1.72-2.08] mg/dl). On multivariate logistic regression, low serum Mg was associated with the presence of HCC (OR 0.047, 95% CI 0.015-0.164; P < 0.0001), independently from factors that can influence magnesaemia and HCC development. In a subset of 94 patients with HCC, a linear mixed effects model adjusted for confounders showed that serum Mg at diagnosis of HCC was lower than before diagnosis of the tumor (ß = 0.117, 95% CI 0.039-0.194, P = 0.0035) and compared to after locoregional treatment of HCC (ß = 0.079, 95% CI 0.010-0.149, P = 0.0259), with two thirds of patients experiencing these changes of serum Mg over time. We hypothesize that most HCCs, like other cancers, may be avid for Mg and behave like a Mg trap, disturbing the body's Mg balance and resulting in lowering of serum Mg levels.

Balloon occluded TACE (B-TACE) vs DEM-TACE for HCC: a single center retrospective case control study.

BACKGROUND: To compare oncological results and safety profile of balloon micro-catheter trans-arterial chemoembolization (b-TACE) and drug-eluting-microsphere (DEM-TACE) in patients with hepatocellular-carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: This is a case-control, retrospective, single-center study. Between January-2015/March-2019, 149 patients (131 males [87.9%]) with 226 HCC were treated, 22 patients (35 HCC; 19 [86.4%] males) with b-TACE and 127 with DEM-TACE (191 HCC, 112 [88.2%] males). Embolization protocol was standardized (sequential 100 ± 25 and 200 ± 25 µm microspheres). Results were evaluated by modified-response-evaluation-criteria-in-solid-tumor [mRECIST] at 1, 3-6 and 9-12 months and time to recurrence after complete response [TTR] at 1 years. Cox's regression weighted with tumor dimensions was performed. Adverse events (AEs) were recorded. RESULTS: mRECIST oncological response at all time points (1, 3-6 and 9-12 months) for both treatments were similar, with the exception of Objective response rate at 9-12 months. Objective response at 1 and 3-6 months between b-TACE vs DEM-TACE [23/35 (65.7%) vs 119/191 (62.3%), 21/29 (72.4%) vs 78/136 (57.4%) (p > 0.05), respectively]. On the contrary, at 9-12 months, it was significantly higher in b-TACE subgroup than DEM-TACE (15/19 [78.9%] vs 48/89 [53.9%], p = 0.05). TTR for complete response at 1 year had a better trend for b-TACE vs DEM-TACE (278.0 days [196.0-342.0] vs 219.0 days [161.0-238.0], OR 0.68 [0.4-1.0], p = 0.10). The use of balloon micro-catheter reduced the relative risk of the event of recurrence by 0.63 [CI95% 0.38-1.04]; p = 0.07). No significant differences were found in AEs rate. CONCLUSION: b-TACE showed a trend of better oncological response over DEM-TACE with and longer TTR with a similar adverse events rate, in patients presenting with larger tumors.