Selecting the optimal gridded climate dataset for Nigeria using advanced time series similarity algorithms.

Choosing a suitable gridded climate dataset is a significant challenge in hydro-climatic research, particularly in areas lacking long-term, reliable, and dense records. This study used the most common method (Perkins skill score (PSS)) with two advanced time series similarity algorithms, short time series distance (STS), and cross-correlation distance (CCD), for the first time to evaluate, compare, and rank five gridded climate datasets, namely, Climate Research Unit (CRU), TERRA Climate (TERRA), Climate Prediction Center (CPC), European Reanalysis V.5 (ERA5), and Climatologies at high resolution for Earth's land surface areas (CHELSA), according to their ability to replicate the in situ rainfall and temperature data in Nigeria. The performance of the methods was evaluated by comparing the ranking obtained using compromise programming (CP) based on four statistical criteria in replicating in situ rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature at 26 locations distributed over Nigeria. Both methods identified CRU as Nigeria's best-gridded climate dataset, followed by CHELSA, TERRA, ERA5, and CPC. The integrated STS values using the group decision-making method for CRU rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures were 17, 10.1, and 20.8, respectively, while CDD values for those variables were 17.7, 11, and 12.2, respectively. The CP based on conventional statistical metrics supported the results obtained using STS and CCD. CRU's Pbias was between 0.5 and 1; KGE ranged from 0.5 to 0.9; NSE ranged from 0.3 to 0.8; and NRMSE between - 30 and 68.2, which were much better than the other products. The findings establish STS and CCD's ability to evaluate the performance of climate data by avoiding the complex and time-consuming multi-criteria decision algorithms based on multiple statistical metrics.

A scorecard of progress towards measles elimination in 15 west African countries, 2001-19: a retrospective, multicountry analysis of national immunisation coverage and surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: The WHO Regional Office for the Africa Regional Immunization Technical Advisory Group, in 2011, adopted the measles control and elimination goals for all countries of the African region to achieve in 2015 and 2020 respectively. Our aim was to track the current status of progress towards measles control and elimination milestones across 15 west African countries between 2001 and 2019. METHODS: We did a retrospective multicountry series analysis of national immunisation coverage and case surveillance data from Jan 1, 2001, to Dec 31, 2019. Our analysis focused on the 15 west African countries that constitute the Economic Community of West African States. We tracked progress in the coverage of measles-containing vaccines (MCVs), measles supplementary immunisation activities, and measles incidence rates. We developed a country-level measles summary scorecard using eight indicators to track progress towards measles elimination as of the end of 2019. The summary indicators were tracked against measles control and elimination milestones. FINDINGS: The weighted average regional first-dose MCV coverage in 2019 was 66% compared with 45% in 2001. 73% (11 of 15) of the west African countries had introduced second-dose MCV as of December, 2019. An estimated 4 588 040 children (aged 12-23 months) did not receive first-dose MCV in 2019, the majority (71%) of whom lived in Nigeria. Based on the scorecard, 12 (80%) countries are off-track to achieving measles elimination milestones; however, Cape Verde, The Gambia, and Ghana have made substantial progress. INTERPRETATION: Measles will continue to be endemic in west Africa after 2020. The regional measles incidence rate in 2019 was 33 times the 2020 elimination target of less than 1 case per million population. However, some hope exists as countries can look at the efforts made by Cape Verde, The Gambia, and Ghana and learn from them. FUNDING: None.

Mobilizing political support proved critical to a successful switch from tOPV to bOPV in Kano, Nigeria 2016.

BACKGROUND: Kano is one of the high-risk states for polio transmission in Northern Nigeria. The state reported more cases of wild polioviruses (WPVs) than any other state in the country. The Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey of 2013 indicated that OPV3 coverage in the routine immunization (RI) programmewas 57.9%. Additionally, serial polio seroprevalence studies conducted from 2011 to 2015 in the eightmetropolitan LGAs indicated low immunity levels against all three polio serotypes in children below one year. Areas with sub-optimal RI coverage such as Kanothat fail to remove all tOPV during the tOPV-bOPV switchwill be at increased risk of VDPV2 circulation. METHODS: We assessed the impact of political leadership engagement in mobilizing other stakeholders on the outcomes of the bOPV-tOPV switch in Kano State from February to May 2016 using nationally-selected planning and outcome indicators. RESULTS: A total of 670 health facilities that provide RI services were assessed during the pre-switch activities. Health workers were aware of the switch exercise in 520 (95.1%) of the public health facilities assessed. It was found that health workers knew what to do should tOPV be found in any of the 521 (95.2%)public health facilities assessed. However, there was a wide disparity between the public and private health practitioners' knowledge on basic concepts of the switch. There was 100% withdrawal of tOPV from the state and the seven zonal cold stores. Unmarked tOPVwas found in the cold chain system in 2 (4.5%) LGAs. Only one health facility (0.8%) had tOPV in the cold chain. No tOPVwas identified outside the cold chain without the "Do not use" sticker in any of the health facilities. CONCLUSION: The engagement of the political leadership to mobilize other key stakeholders facilitated successful implementation of the tOPV-bOPVswitch exercise and provided opportunity to strengthen partnerships with the private health sector in Kano State.