Signatures of strange nonchaotic dynamics in a forced quantum system.

Can strange sets arise out of quantum dynamics? We explore this question using the quantum analog of a classical impact oscillator, which consists of a forced spring-mass-damper system, with a wall it may collide against. The classical impact oscillator is known to undergo a sudden transition to chaos when the mass grazes the wall. We numerically compute the evolution of the wave function in the equivalent quantum system and investigate the dynamical signatures. The entropy of the probability density and the L_{1} norm are used to generate real-valued time series, which are then subjected to diagnostic tests. Even though closed quantum systems with unitary evolution are incapable of showing chaotic behavior, we observe the characteristic features of strange nonchaotic dynamics in the forced system.

The Role of Public Health Expenditures in COVID-19 control: Evidence from Local Governments in England.

For over 150 years the local health departments of England have been critical in controlling 19th and 20th century infectious epidemics. However, recent administrative changes have hollowed out their flexibility to serve communities. We use administrative data on past budgetary allocations per capita to public health departments at upper tier local areas (UTLAs) of England to examine whether public health funding levels were correlated with more rapid control of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic between March and July of 2020. The dependent variable was the number of days between a UTLA's 10th case of COVID-19 and the day when new cases per 100,000 peaked and began to decline. Our models controlled for regional socio-economic factors. We found no correlation between local public health expenditure and the speed of control of COVID-19. However, overall public expenditure allocated to improve local areas helped reduce time to reach peak. Contrary to expectation, more dense areas such as London experienced shorter duration. Higher income areas had more rapid success in accelerating the time of the first peak in the first wave of their local COVID-19 incidence. We contribute to understanding the impact of how public expenditure and socio-economic factors affect an epidemic.

Aquaculture for improving productivity, income, nutrition and women's empowerment in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: A steady increase in the international production and consumption of fish has positioned aquaculture as a development option. Previous literature has highlighted the potential of aquaculture to improve economic, nutritional and gender equality outcomes, however, the evidence on the effectiveness of these programmes remains unclear. Objectives: The review assessed whether aquaculture interventions increase the productivity, income, nutrition, and women's empowerment of individuals. We additionally aimed to identify barriers and facilitators that could affect the effectiveness of these interventions, and the cost-effectiveness of such programmes. Methods: We searched for experimental and quasi-experimental studies focused on low- and middle-income countries. We used standard methodological procedures expected by The Campbell Collaboration for the data collection and analysis. Results: We identified 21 impact evaluations assessing the effect of 13 aquaculture interventions in low- and lower-middle income countries. Twelve of these studies have a high risk of bias. Aquaculture interventions lead to a small increase in the production value, income, total expenditures and food consumption of participants. The limited availability of evidence prevented us from assessing other nutritional and women's empowerment outcomes. We identified barriers and facilitators affecting the programmes' set up, the participation of beneficiaries, and the level of productive activities. Insufficient cost data hindered full comparisons across programmes. Conclusions: The review suggests a lack of rigorous evidence assessing the effectiveness of aquaculture programmes. Future research could focus on evaluating nutrition and women's empowerment impacts, promoting reporting standards, and the use of cost data to continue building quality evidence around aquaculture interventions.

Is health politically irrelevant? Experimental evidence during a global pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate how health issues affect voting behaviour by considering the COVID-19 pandemic, which offers a unique opportunity to examine this interplay. DESIGN: We employ a survey experiment in which treatment groups are exposed to key facts about the pandemic, followed by questions intended to elicit attitudes toward the incumbent party and government responsibility for the pandemic. SETTING: The survey was conducted amid the lockdown period of 15-26 April 2020 in three large democratic countries with the common governing language of English: India, the United Kingdom and the United States. Due to limitations on travel and recruitment, subjects were recruited through the M-Turk internet platform and the survey was administered entirely online. Respondents numbered 3648. RESULTS: Our expectation was that respondents in the treatment groups would favour, or disfavour, the incumbent and assign blame to government for the pandemic compared with the control group. We observe no such results. Several reasons may be adduced for this null finding. One reason could be that public health is not viewed as a political issue. However, people do think health is an important policy area (>85% agree) and that government has some responsibility for health (>90% agree). Another reason could be that people view public health policies through partisan lenses, which means that health is largely endogenous, and yet we find little evidence of polarisation in our data. Alternatively, it could be that the global nature of the pandemic inoculated politicians from blame and yet a majority of people do think the government is to blame for the spread of the pandemic (~50% agree). CONCLUSIONS: While we cannot precisely determine the mechanisms at work, the null findings contained in this study suggest that politicians are unlikely to be punished or rewarded for their failures or successes in managing COVID-19 in the next election. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Initial research hypotheses centred on expected variation between two treatments, as set forth in a detailed pre-analysis plan, registered at E-Gap: http://egap.org/registration/6645. Finding no difference between the treatments, we decided to focus this paper on the treatment/control comparison. Importantly, results that follow the pre-analysis plan strictly are entirely consistent with results presented here: null findings obtained throughout.

Assessment of the public-private-partnerships model of a national health insurance scheme in India.

A single hospital admission can deplete household resources so considerably as to induce impoverishment, especially in the Indian context of low government healthcare expenditure. Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY) was a national health insurance scheme for below-poverty-line Indian families, to provide improved access to hospitalization and greater financial protection via a public-private-partnership employing private sector implementation capacity. Study objectives were to understand governance (including regulatory) environment and contract arrangements; evaluate expansion of services to beneficiaries; and assess compliance of providers and user satisfaction. A case study approach in two districts met the need for in-depth information on scheme functioning, and RSBY implementation was examined between 2011 and 13 in Patiala (Punjab) and Yamunanagar (Haryana). Methods included 20 key stakeholder interviews, analysis of secondary datasets on beneficiaries and claims, primary data collection in 31 public and private hospitals and in greater depth in 12 hospitals, and an exit survey of 751 patients. Enrolled and non-enrolled hospitals were mapped in each district and service availability of enrolled hospitals assessed; enrollee characteristics were analysed; for the 12 hospitals, information was obtained on structural quality and process of care, and patient satisfaction and out-of-pocket payments. The Indian states and the government of India did not specify formal regulatory and implementation procedures in detail and states largely contracted out their functions to private insurance firms. Findings show regulatory weaknesses, and contractual breaches. Enrolment rates were low in both districts and more so for Patiala and there was limited access to services. There was little difference in process of care between public and private hospitals, though the structural capacity of private hospitals was better than public hospitals. RSBY helped improve accessibility and gave some degree of financial protection to patients. It also actively engaged with existing resources in the Indian health care and insurance markets.

Expanding healthcare coverage: An experience from Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojna.

Background & objective: Given that Ayushman Bharat Yojna was launched in 2018 in India, analysis of Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojna (RSBY) become relevant. The objective of this study was to examine the scheme design and the incentive structure under RSBY. Methods: The study was conducted in the districts of Patiala and Yamunanagar in the States of Punjab and Haryana, respectively (2011-2013). The mixed method study involved review of key documents; 20 in-depth interviews of key stakeholders; 399 exit interviews of RSBY and non-RSBY beneficiaries in Patiala and 353 in Yamunanagar from 12 selected RSBY empanelled hospitals; and analysis of secondary databases from State nodal agencies and district medical officers. Results: Insurance companies had considerable implementation responsibilities which led to conflict of interest in enrolment and empanelment. Enrolment was 15 per cent in Patiala and 42 per cent in Yamunanagar. Empanelment of health facilities was 17 (15%) in Patiala and 37 (30%) in Yamunanagar. Private-empanelled facilities were geographically clustered in the urban parts of the sub-districts. Monitoring was weak and led to breach of contracts. RSBY beneficiaries incurred out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures (₹5748); however, it was lower than that for non-RSBY (₹10667). The scheme had in-built incentives for Centre, State, insurance companies and health providers (both public and private). There were no incentives for health staff for additional RSBY activities. Interpretation & conclusions: RSBY has in-built incentives for all stakeholders. Some of the gaps identified in the scheme design pertained to poor enrolment practices, distribution of roles and responsibilities, fixed package rates, weak monitoring and supervision, and incurring OOP expenditure.

Trends In The Alignment And Harmonization Of Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, And Child Health Funding, 2008-13.

Donor financing to low- and middle-income countries for reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health increased substantially from 2008 to 2013. However, increased spending by donors might not improve outcomes, if funds are delivered in ways that undermine countries' public financial management systems and incur high transaction costs for project implementation. We combined quantitative and qualitative methods to examine the quality of funding for reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health globally and in Tanzania, based on two principles of aid effectiveness: the alignment of donor financing with the recipient country's public health financial management systems, and donor harmonization for coordinated, transparent, and collectively effective actions. We found that alignment of donor financing deteriorated throughout the period, with the proportion of funds channeled through governments decreasing from 47 percent to 39 percent. Tanzania-based donors attributed the change to the pressure donors were under to achieve and show results. Donor harmonization was low overall and remained relatively constant, although it increased in sub-Saharan Africa and decreased in South Asia. Bilateral funding agencies were the most harmonized donors. We recommend that future assessments of Sustainable Development Goals financing include measures of harmonization and alignment of funding.

Is Development Assistance for Health fungible? Findings from a mixed methods case study in Tanzania.

The amount of Development Assistance for Health (DAH) available to low- and middle-income countries has increased exponentially over the past decade. However, there are concerns that DAH increases have not resulted in increased spending on health at the country level. This is because DAH may be fungible, resulting from the recipient government decreasing its contribution to the health sector as a result of external funding. The aim of this research is to assess whether DAH funds in Tanzania are fungible, by exploring government substitution of its own resources across sectors and within the health sector. A database containing 28140 projects of DAH expenditure between 2000 and 2010 was compiled from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's Creditor Reporting System (OECD-CRS) and AidData databases. Government health expenditure data for the same period were obtained from the Government of Tanzania, World Bank, public expenditure reviews and budget speeches and analysed to assess the degree of government substitution. 22 semi-structured interviews were conducted with Development Partners (DPs), government and non-government stakeholders between April and June 2012 to explore stakeholder perceptions of fungibility. We found some evidence of substitution of government funds at the health sector and sub-sector levels and two mechanisms through which it takes place: the resource allocation process and macro-economic factors. We found fungibility of external funds may not necessarily be detrimental to Tanzania's development (as evidence suggests the funds displaced may be reallocated to education) and the mechanisms used by DPs to prevent substitution were largely ineffective. We recommend DPs engage more effectively in the priority-setting process, not just with the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (MoHSW), but also with the Ministry of Finance, to agree on priorities and mutual funding responsibilities at a macroeconomic level. We also call for more qualitative research on fungibility.

Evaluating a Large-Scale Community-Based Intervention to Improve Pregnancy and Newborn Health Among the Rural Poor in India.

Objectives. We evaluated the effectiveness of the Sure Start project, which was implemented in 7 districts of Uttar Pradesh, India, to improve maternal and newborn health. Methods. Interventions were implemented at 2 randomly assigned levels of intensity. Forty percent of the areas received a more intense intervention, including community-level meetings with expectant mothers. A baseline survey consisted of 12 000 women who completed pregnancy in 2007; a follow-up survey was conducted for women in 2010 in the same villages. Our quantitative analyses provide an account of the project's impact. Results. We observed significant health improvements in both intervention areas over time; in the more intensive intervention areas, we found greater improvements in care-seeking and healthy behaviors. The more intensive intervention areas did not experience a significantly greater decline in neonatal mortality. Conclusions. This study demonstrates that community-based efforts, especially mothers' group meetings designed to increase care-seeking and healthy behaviors, are effective and can be implemented at large scale.

Constraints to implementing the Essential Health Package in Malawi.

Increasingly seen as a useful tool of health policy, Essential or Minimal Health Packages direct resources to interventions that aim to address the local burden of disease and be cost-effective. Less attention has been paid to the delivery mechanisms for such interventions. This study aimed to assess the degree to which the Essential Health Package (EHP) in Malawi was available to its population and what health system constraints impeded its full implementation. The first phase of this study comprised a survey of all facilities in three districts including interviews with all managers and clinical staff. In the second and third phase, results were discussed with District Health Management Teams and national level stakeholders, respectively, including representatives of the Ministry of Health, Central Medical Stores, donors and NGOs. The EHP in Malawi is focussing on the local burden of disease; however, key constraints to its successful implementation included a widespread shortage of staff due to vacancies but also caused by frequent trainings and meetings (only 48% of expected man days of clinical staff were available; training and meetings represented 57% of all absences in health centres). Despite the training, the percentage of health workers aware of vital diagnostic and therapeutic approaches to EHP conditions was weak. Another major constraint was shortages of vital drugs at all levels of facilities (e.g. Cotrimoxazole was sufficiently available to treat the average number of patients in only 27% of health centres). Although a few health workers noted some improvement in infrastructure and working conditions, they still considered them to be widely inadequate. In Malawi, as in similar resource poor countries, greater attention needs to be given to the health system constraints to delivering health care. Removal of these constraints should receive priority over the considerable focus on the development and implementation of essential packages of interventions.

Cost-Effectiveness and Resource Allocation (CERA) - directions for the future.

The journal Cost-Effectiveness and Resource Allocation (CERA) is now in its seventh year, and is an excellent example of how open access publishing can improve dissemination. Now the journal is through its infancy, it is time to reflect on its orientation and to define the strategy for the years to come. Firstly, the journal will pay particular attention to stimulating and publishing studies originating from low- and middle-income countries. Second, CERA will continue to solicit contributions originating from high-income countries, but with the caveat that such studies should be of interest to the broad international readership of the journal. Third, the journal encourages submissions on methodological work from any setting, that is generalisable between low-, middle-, and high income countries. Fourth, CERA recognizes the development of national health accounts and expenditure tracking as a first step to improved resource allocation, and solicit manuscripts of this nature. Finally, CERA recognizes that cost and cost-effectiveness analysis alone may not provide sufficient information to decision makers to guide their choices on the allocation of resources, and therefore encourages submission of studies that advance the broader field of priority-setting.

Communicable disease control: a 'Global Public Good' perspective.

Despite the increasing 'globalization' of health, the responsibility for it remains primarily national, generating a potential mismatch between global health problems and current institutions and mechanisms to deal with them. The 'Global Public Good' (GPG) concept has been suggested as a framework to address this mismatch in different areas of public policy. This paper considers the application of the GPG concept as an organizing principle for communicable disease control (CDC), considering in particular its potential to improve the health and welfare of the developing world. The paper concludes that there are significant limitations to the GPG concept's effectiveness as an organizing principle for global health priorities, with respect to CDC. More specifically, there are few areas of CDC which qualify as GPG, and even among those that can be considered GPGs, it is not necessarily appropriate to provide everything which can be considered a GPG. It is therefore suggested that it may be more useful to focus instead on the failure of 'collective action', where the GPG concept may then: (1) provide a rationale to raise funds additional to aid from developed countries' domestic budgets; (2) promote investment by developed countries in the health systems of developing countries; (3) promote strategic partnerships between developed and developing countries to tackle major global communicable diseases; and (4) guide the political process of establishing, and mechanisms for providing and financing, global CDC programmes with GPG characteristics, and GPGs which have benefits for CDC. In short, the GPG concept is not without limitations and weaknesses as an organizing principle, but does provide, at least in some areas, guidance in improving collective action at the international level for the improvement of global CDC.

Global health goals: lessons from the worldwide effort to eradicate poliomyelitis.

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative was launched in 1988. Assessment of the politics, production, financing, and economics of this international effort has suggested six lessons that might be pertinent to the pursuit of other global health goals. First, such goals should be based on technically sound strategies with proven operational feasibility in a large geographical area. Second, before launching an initiative, an informed collective decision must be negotiated and agreed in an appropriate international forum to keep to a minimum long-term risks in financing and implementation. Third, if substantial community engagement is envisaged, efficient deployment of sufficient resources at that level necessitates a defined, time-limited input by the community within a properly managed partnership. Fourth, although the so-called fair-share concept is arguably the best way to finance such goals, its limitations must be recognised early and alternative strategies developed for settings where it does not work. Fifth, international health goals must be designed and pursued within existing health systems if they are to secure and sustain broad support. Finally, countries, regions, or populations most likely to delay the achievement of a global health goal should be identified at the outset to ensure provision of sufficient resources and attention. The greatest threats to poliomyelitis eradication are a financing gap of US 210 million dollars and difficulties in strategy implementation in at most five countries.

Cost-effectiveness of measles elimination in Latin America and the Caribbean: a prospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: In 1994, the Americas set a goal of interrupting indigenous measles transmission from the Western Hemisphere by 2000. To accomplish this goal, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) developed an enhanced measles vaccination strategy. METHODS: Cost data was collected at PAHO for Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries covering 96% of the region's population on components of the routine programs, and the 'follow-up' activities from member countries. In order to interpret our findings we have compared the present scenario regarding measles with one that would have ensued if past trends continued. RESULTS: For the entire LAC population, estimated cost of elimination program will be US$ 571 million in present value terms. INTERPRETATION: The vaccination strategy toward achieving elimination of measles costs USD 244 million, incremental from the cost of vaccination before the elimination program. Within 2000-2020, the current program will have prevented the occurrence of 3.2 million cases of measles and 16,000 deaths. Thus, vaccination strategy prevents a single case of measles at the cost of USD 71.75 and prevents a death due to measles at the cost of USD 15,000. The case fatality rate depends on a well functioning treatment program for measles cases. The vaccination strategy saves a total of USD 208 million in treatments costs due to reduced incidence of measles.