Development of Predictive Models for Survival among Women with Breast Cancer in Malaysia.

Prediction of survival probabilities based on models developed by other countries has shown inconsistent findings among Malaysian patients. This study aimed to develop predictive models for survival among women with breast cancer in Malaysia. A retrospective cohort study was conducted involving patients who were diagnosed between 2012 and 2016 in seven breast cancer centres, where their survival status was followed until 31 December 2021. A total of 13 predictors were selected to model five-year survival probabilities by applying Cox proportional hazards (PH), artificial neural networks (ANN), and decision tree (DT) classification analysis. The random-split dataset strategy was used to develop and measure the models' performance. Among 1006 patients, the majority were Malay, with ductal carcinoma, hormone-sensitive, HER2-negative, at T2-, N1-stage, without metastasis, received surgery and chemotherapy. The estimated five-year survival rate was 60.5% (95% CI: 57.6, 63.6). For Cox PH, the c-index was 0.82 for model derivation and 0.81 for validation. The model was well-calibrated. The Cox PH model outperformed the DT and ANN models in most performance indices, with the Cox PH model having the highest accuracy of 0.841. The accuracies of the DT and ANN models were 0.811 and 0.821, respectively. The Cox PH model is more useful for survival prediction in this study's setting.

A comparison of breast cancer survival across different age groups: a multicentric database study in Penang, Malaysia.

This study compared breast cancer survival and the prognostic factors across different age groups of women in Penang, Malaysia. Data on 2,166 women with breast cancer who had been diagnosed between 2010 and 2014 were extracted from the Penang Breast Cancer Registry and stratified into 3 age groups: young (< 40 years old), middle-aged (40-59 years old), and elderly (≥ 60 years). The overall and relative survival rates were calculated using the life table method, median survival time was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and comparisons between groups were conducted using the log-rank test. Prognostic factors were analyzed using a Cox proportional hazards model. The 5-year overall and breast cancer-specific survival rates for women with breast cancer in Penang were 72.9% and 75.2%, with a mean survival time of 92.5 months and 95.1 months, respectively. The 5-year breast cancer-specific survival rates for young, middle-aged, and elderly women were 74.9%, 77.8%, and 71.4%, respectively, with a mean survival time of 95.7 months, 97.5 months, and 91.2 months. There was a significant difference in breast cancer survival between age groups, with elderly women showing the lowest survival rate, followed by young and middle-aged women. Disease stage was the most prominent prognostic factor for all age groups. Survival rates and prognostic factors differed according to age group. Treatment planning for breast cancer patients should be age-specific to promote better cancer care and survival.