Health systems challenges, mitigation strategies and adaptations to maintain essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic: learnings from the six geopolitical regions in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic control strategies disrupted the smooth delivery of essential health services (EHS) globally. Limited evidence exists on the health systems lens approach to analyzing the challenges encountered in maintaining EHS during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to identify the health system challenges encountered and document the mitigation strategies and adaptations made across geopolitical zones (GPZs) in Nigeria. METHODS: The national qualitative survey of key actors across the six GPZs in Nigeria involved ten states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) which were selected based on resilience, COVID-19 burden and security considerations. A pre-tested key informant guide was used to collect data on service utilization, changes in service utilization, reasons for changes in primary health centres' (PHCs) service volumes, challenges experienced by health facilities in maintaining EHS, mitigation strategies implemented and adaptations to service delivery. Emerging sub-themes were categorized under the appropriate pillars of the health system. RESULTS: A total of 22 respondents were interviewed. The challenges experienced in maintaining EHS cut across the pillars of the health systems including: Human resources shortage, shortages in the supply of personal protective equipments, fear of contracting COVID-19 among health workers misconception, ignorance, socio-cultural issues, lockdown/transportation and lack of equipment/waiting area (. The mitigation strategies included improved political will to fund health service projects, leading to improved accessibility, affordability, and supply of consumables. The health workforce was motivated by employing, redeploying, training, and incentivizing. Service delivery was reorganized by rescheduling appointments and prioritizing some EHS such as maternal and childcare. Sustainable systems adaptations included IPC and telehealth infrastructure, training and capacity building, virtual meetings and community groups set up for sensitization and engagement. CONCLUSION: The mitigation strategies and adaptations implemented were important contributors to EHS recovery especially in the high resilience LGAs and have implications for future epidemic preparedness plans.

Postpartum length of hospital stay among obstetric patients in Ibadan, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Postpartum Length of hospital stay (PLOHS) is an essential indicator of the quality of maternal and perinatal healthcare services. Identifying the factors associated with PLOHS will inform targeted interventions to reduce unnecessary hospitalisations and improve patient outcomes after childbirth. Therefore, we assessed the length of hospital stay after birth and the associated factors in Ibadan, Nigeria. METHODS: We used the Ibadan Pregnancy Cohort Study (IbPCS) data, and examined the 1057 women who had information on PLOHS the mode of delivery [spontaneous vagina delivery (SVD) or caesarean section (C/S)]. The outcome variable was PLOHS, which was described as the time interval between the delivery of the infant and discharge from the health facility. PLOHS was prolonged if > 24 h for SVD and > 96 h for C/S, but normal if otherwise. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, a chi-square test, and modified Poisson regression. The prevalence-risk ratio (PR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) are presented at the 5% significance level. RESULTS: The mean maternal age was (30.0 ± 5.2) years. Overall, the mean PLOHS for the study population was 2.6 (95% CI: 2.4-2.7) days. The average PLOHS for women who had vaginal deliveries was 1.7 (95%CI: 1.5-1.9) days, whereas those who had caesarean deliveries had an average LOHS of 4.4 (95%CI: 4.1-4.6) days. About a third had prolonged PLOHS: SVD 229 (32.1%) and C/S 108 (31.5%). Factors associated with prolonged PLOHS with SVD, were high income (aPR = 1.77; CI: 1.13, 2.79), frequent ANC visits (> 4) (aPR = 2.26; CI: 1.32, 3.87), and antenatal admission: (aPR = 1.88; CI: 1.15, 3.07). For C/S: maternal age > 35 years (aPR = 1.59; CI: 1.02, 2.47) and hypertensive disease in pregnancy (aPR = 0.61 ; CI: 0.38, 0.99) were associated with prolonged PLOHS. CONCLUSION: The prolonged postpartum length of hospital stay was common among our study participants occurring in about a third of the women irrespective of the mode of delivery. Maternal income, advanced maternal age, ANC related issues were predisposing factors for prolonged LOHS. Further research is required to examine providers' perspectives on PLOHS among obstetric patients in our setting.

Health workforce incentives and dis-incentives during the COVID-19 pandemic: experiences from Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic presented a myriad of challenges for the health workforce around the world due to its escalating demand on service delivery. A motivated health workforce is critical to effectual emergency response and in some settings, incentivizing health workers motivates them and ensures continuity in the provision of health services. We describe health workforce experiences with incentives and dis-incentives during the COVID-19 response in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Senegal, Nigeria, and Uganda. METHODS: This is a multi-country qualitative research study involving four African countries namely: DRC, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda which assessed the workplace incentives instituted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Key informant interviews (n = 60) were conducted with staff at ministries of health, policy makers and health workers. Interviews were virtual using the telephone or Zoom. They were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed thematically. Themes were identified and quotes were used to support findings. RESULTS: Health worker incentives included (i) financial rewards in the form of allowances and salary increments. These motivated health workers, sustaining the health system and the health workers' efforts during the COVID-19 response across the four countries. (ii) Non-financial incentives related to COVID-19 management such as provision of medicines/supplies, on the job trainings, medical care for health workers, social welfare including meals, transportation and housing, recognition, health insurance, psychosocial support, and supervision. Improvised determination and distribution of both financial and non-financial incentives were common across the countries. Dis-incentives included the lack of personal protective equipment, lack of transportation to health facilities during lockdown, long working hours, harassment by security forces and perceived unfairness in access to and inadequacy of financial incentives. CONCLUSION: Although important for worker motivation, financial and non-financial incentives generated some dis-incentives because of the perceived unfairness in their provision. Financial and non-financial incentives deployed during health emergencies should preferably be pre-determined, equitably and transparently provided because when arbitrarily applied, these same financial and non-financial incentives can potentially become dis-incentives. Moreover, financial incentives are useful only as far as they are administered together with non-financial incentives such as supportive and well-resourced work environments. The potential negative impacts of interventions such as service delivery re-organization and lockdown within already weakened systems need to be anticipated and due precautions exercised to reduce dis-incentives during emergencies.

Improving testing capacity for COVID-19: experiences and lessons from Senegal, Uganda, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Background: African countries leveraged testing capacities to enhance public health action in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper describes experiences and lessons learned during the improvement of testing capacity throughout the COVID-19 response in Senegal, Uganda, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Methods: The four countries' testing strategies were studied using a mixed-methods approach. Desk research on COVID-19 testing strategies was conducted and complemented by interviewing key informants. The findings were synthesized to demonstrate learning outcomes across the four countries. Results: The four countries demonstrated severely limited testing capacities at the onset of the pandemic. These countries decentralized COVID-19 testing services by leveraging preexisting laboratory systems such as PCR and GeneXpert used for the diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) to address this gap and the related inequities, engaging the private sector, establishing new laboratories, and using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) to expand testing capacity and reduce the turnaround time (TAT). The use of digital platforms improved the TAT. Testing supplies were sourced through partners, although access to global markets was challenging. Case detection remains suboptimal due to high costs, restrictive testing strategies, testing access challenges, and misinformation, which hinder the demand for testing. The TAT for PCR remained a challenge, while RDT use was underreported, although Senegal manufactured RDTs locally. Key findings indicate that regionally coordinated procurement and manufacturing mechanisms are required, that testing modalities must be simplified for improved access, and that the risk-based testing strategy limits comprehensive understanding of the disease burden. Conclusion: Although testing capacities improved significantly during the pandemic, case detection and access to testing remained suboptimal. The four countries could benefit from further simplification of testing modalities and cost reduction. Local manufacturing and pooled procurement mechanisms for diagnostics are needed for optimal pandemic preparedness and response.

Consequences of school closures due to COVID-19 in DRC, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda.

In 2020 and 2021, Governments across the globe instituted school closures to reduce social interaction and interrupt COVID-19 transmission. We examined the consequences of school closures due to COVID-19 across four sub-Saharan African countries: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda. We conducted a qualitative study among key informants including policymakers, school heads, students, parents, civil society representatives, and local leaders. The assessment of the consequences of school closures was informed by the Diffusion of Innovations theory which informed the interview guide and analysis. Interview transcripts were thematically analysed. Across the four countries, schools were totally closed for 120 weeks and partially closed for 48 weeks. School closures led to: i) Desirable and anticipated consequences: enhanced adoption of online platforms and mass media for learning and increased involvement of parents in their children's education. ii) Desirable and unanticipated consequences: improvement in information, communication, and technology (ICT) infrastructure in schools, development and improvement of computer skills, and created an opportunity to take leave from hectic schedules. iii) Undesirable anticipated consequences: inadequate education continuity among students, an adjustment in academic schedules and programmes, and disrupted student progress and grades. iv) Undesirable unanticipated: increase in sexual violence including engaging in transactional sex, a rise in teenage pregnancy, and school dropouts, demotivation of teachers due to reduced incomes, and reduced school revenues. v) Neutral consequences: engagement in revenue-generating activities, increased access to phones and computers among learners, and promoted less structured learning. The consequences of school closures for COVID-19 control were largely negative with the potential for both short-term and far-reaching longer-term consequences. In future pandemics, careful consideration of the type and duration of education closure measures and examination of their potential consequences in the short and long term is important before deploying them.

Regional differences in the utilisation of antenatal care and skilled birth attendant services during the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria: an interrupted time series analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial negative impact on the utilisation of essential health services (EHS) globally, especially in resource-limited settings such as Nigeria. High maternal deaths associated with low access to and utilisation of EHS such as antenatal care (ANC) and skilled birth attendants (SBAs) remain a concern during the COVID-19 era. The study assessed the COVID-19 pandemic effects on ANC and SBA utilisation across regions in Nigeria. METHODS: Monthly data on ANC and SBA between January 2017 and July 2021 were obtained from the Federal Ministry of Health database. An interrupted time-series analysis, implemented using the Prophet model, was conducted to compare the regional variation of outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Average percentage changes (PC) between the observed and predicted outcomes including their 95% CI were reported. RESULTS: From March 2020 to July 2021, the number of ANC visits was significantly lower than expected by a 16%-43% change in five of the six regions in Nigeria. The highest significant reduction was in North-West (PC=-43.4; 95% CI: -52.6 to -34.1) and the least in South-West (PC=-15.5; 95% CI: -24.8 to -6.1), with no significant change in the South-East. The number of deliveries by SBA was significantly lower than expected by a 18%-43% change in all the regions (p<0.01). North-East (PC=-43.3; 95% CI: -51.7 to -34.9) and South-West (PC=-18.3; 95% CI: -25.2 to -11.5), respectively, had the highest and the least decline in SBA utilisation. Overall, ANC and SBA patterns of change were relatively similar across the north-south divide though the change effect was considerably pronounced in the north. CONCLUSION: There was a substantial reduction in ANC and SBA utilisation due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, especially in the northern regions. Targeted and contextually relevant interventions should be implemented to alleviate the impact of emergency response on access to EHS and promote access to care during the pandemic.

Unintended consequences of implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions for the COVID-19 response in Africa: experiences from DRC, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda.

INTRODUCTION: The coronavirus (COVID 19) pandemic is one of the most terrifying disasters of the twenty-first century. The non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented to control the spread of the disease had numerous positive consequences. However, there were also unintended consequences-positively or negatively related to the nature of the interventions, the target, the level and duration of implementation. This article describes the unintended economic, Psychosocial and environmental consequences of NPIs in four African countries. METHODS: We conducted a mixed-methods study in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Nigeria, Senegal and Uganda. A comprehensive conceptual framework, supported by a clear theory of change was adopted to encompass both systemic and non-systemic interventions. The data collection approaches included: (i) review of literature; (ii) analysis of secondary data for selected indicators; and (ii) key informant interviews with policy makers, civil society, local leaders, and law enforcement staff. The results were synthesized around thematic areas. RESULTS: Over the first six to nine months of the pandemic, NPIs especially lockdowns, travel restrictions, curfews, school closures, and prohibition of mass gathering resulted into both positive and negative unintended consequences cutting across economic, psychological, and environmental platforms. DRC, Nigeria, and Uganda observed reduced crime rates and road traffic accidents, while Uganda also reported reduced air pollution. In addition, hygiene practices have improved through health promotion measures that have been promoted for the response to the pandemic. All countries experienced economic slowdown, job losses heavily impacting women and poor households, increased sexual and gender-based violence, teenage pregnancies, and early marriages, increased poor mental health conditions, increased waste generation with poor disposal, among others. CONCLUSION: Despite achieving pandemic control, the stringent NPIs had several negative and few positive unintended consequences. Governments need to balance the negative and positive consequences of NPIs by anticipating and instituting measures that will support and protect vulnerable groups especially the poor, the elderly, women, and children. Noticeable efforts, including measures to avoid forced into marriage, increasing inequities, economic support to urban poor; those living with disabilities, migrant workers, and refugees, had been conducted to mitigate the negative effects of the NIPs.

COVID-19 surveillance in Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal and Uganda: strengths, weaknesses and key Lessons.

INTRODUCTION: As part of efforts to rapidly identify and care for individuals with COVID-19, trace and quarantine contacts, and monitor disease trends over time, most African countries implemented interventions to strengthen their existing disease surveillance systems. This research describes the strengths, weaknesses and lessons learnt from the COVID-19 surveillance strategies implemented in four African countries to inform the enhancement of surveillance systems for future epidemics on the continent. METHODS: The four countries namely the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda, were selected based on their variability in COVID-19 response and representation of Francophone and Anglophone countries. A mixed-methods observational study was conducted including desk review and key informant interviews, to document best practices, gaps, and innovations in surveillance at the national, sub-national, health facilities, and community levels, and these learnings were synthesized across the countries. RESULTS: Surveillance approaches across countries included - case investigation, contact tracing, community-based, laboratory-based sentinel, serological, telephone hotlines, and genomic sequencing surveillance. As the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, the health systems moved from aggressive testing and contact tracing to detect virus and triage individual contacts into quarantine and confirmed cases, isolation and clinical care. Surveillance, including case definitions, changed from contact tracing of all contacts of confirmed cases to only symptomatic contacts and travelers. All countries reported inadequate staffing, staff capacity gaps and lack of full integration of data sources. All four countries under study improved data management and surveillance capacity by training health workers and increasing resources for laboratories, but the disease burden was under-detected. Decentralizing surveillance to enable swifter implementation of targeted public health measures at the subnational level was a challenge. There were also gaps in genomic and postmortem surveillance including community level sero-prevalence studies, as well as digital technologies to provide more timely and accurate surveillance data. CONCLUSION: All the four countries demonstrated a prompt public health surveillance response and adopted similar approaches to surveillance with some adaptations as the pandemic progresses. There is need for investments to enhance surveillance approaches and systems including decentralizing surveillance to the subnational and community levels, strengthening capabilities for genomic surveillance and use of digital technologies, among others. Investing in health worker capacity, ensuring data quality and availability and improving ability to transmit surveillance data between and across multiple levels of the health care system is also critical. Countries need to take immediate action in strengthening their surveillance systems to better prepare for the next major disease outbreak and pandemic.

Spread and seasonality of COVID-19 pandemic confirmed cases in sub-Saharan Africa: experience from Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the world negatively with huge health and socioeconomic consequences. This study estimated the seasonality, trajectory, and projection of COVID-19 cases to understand the dynamics of the disease spread and inform response interventions. METHOD: Descriptive analysis of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 2020 to 12th March 2022 was conducted in four purposefully selected sub-Saharan African countries (Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Senegal, and Uganda). We extrapolated the COVID-19 data from (2020 to 2022) to 2023 using a trigonometric time series model. A decomposition time series method was used to examine the seasonality in the data. RESULTS: Nigeria had the highest rate of spread (ß) of COVID-19 (ß = 381.2) while DRC had the least rate (ß = 119.4). DRC, Uganda, and Senegal had a similar pattern of COVID-19 spread from the onset through December 2020. The average doubling time in COVID-19 case count was highest in Uganda (148 days) and least in Nigeria (83 days). A seasonal variation was found in the COVID-19 data for all four countries but the timing of the cases showed some variations across countries. More cases are expected in the 1st (January-March) and 3rd (July-September) quarters of the year in Nigeria and Senegal, and in the 2nd (April-June) and 3rd (October-December) quarters in DRC and Uganda. CONCLUSION: Our findings show a seasonality that may warrant consideration for COVID-19 periodic interventions in the peak seasons in the preparedness and response strategies.

Nigerian men and modern contraceptives: who are the non-users and what are their perceptions about family planning?

Introduction: the decision of men is pertinent to contraceptive uptake in a patriarchal society like Nigeria. Earlier studies on contraception in Nigeria have focused majorly on women. In this paper, we identified factors influencing contraceptive use, and non-users' perceptions about family planning among Nigerian men. Methods: using data from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey, this retrospective cross-sectional study focused on men aged 15-59 years. Three outcome variables were analysed: modern contraceptive use categorised as non-users or users; perception about contraception captured using two statements- "contraception is woman's business"; "women who use contraception may become promiscuous". Data were analyzed using multivariable logit model with robust standard errors (α= 0.05). Results: mean age of the men was 37.3 years (SD=10.2). Out of 9622 study participants, 71.0% do not use any modern contraceptive method; 19.9% believed that contraception is woman's business while 38.1% believed that women who used contraceptives may become promiscuous. Significant predictors of non-use of contraceptives and perceptions about family planning were older age, low education, Islamic religion, exposure to family planning messages, desire for more children and residence in Northern part of Nigeria. Conclusion: large proportion of contraceptive non-users had negative perceptions. Educational intervention and advocacy among Nigerian men are essential to increase contraceptive uptake.

COVID-19 Vaccine Attitude and Its Predictors Among People Living With Chronic Health Conditions in Ibadan, Nigeria.

Objective: To assess vaccination attitude and its associated factors among people with chronic health conditions. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, participants were 423 patients with chronic medical conditions. Data were collected on socio-demographic and COVID-19-related characteristics, via Open Data Kit software. A Vaccination Attitudes Examination (VAX) Scale was adopted. The main outcome was vaccine attitude status defined as positive if a VAX sum score was above the median value; otherwise, non-positive. Data were analysed using Chi-square and multivariate logistic regression analyses, at 5% level of significance. Results: Overall proportion of patients with a positive attitude towards COVID-19 vaccination uptake was 46.6%. The most influential factor towards positive attitude was rating the government high in handling the pandemic. Other factors were education, income, COVID-19 knowledge and living room arrangement (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Less than half of people living with a chronic medical condition had a positive attitude towards the COVID-19 vaccine. The attitudes are strongly mediated by confidence in the government. The government could promote a positive vaccine attitude by improving the clarity of health instructions that shows government transparency and effective communication. These are critical tools for maintaining public trust and confidence.

Predictors and time to recovery from COVID-19 among patients attended at the treatment centers in Ekiti State, South West, Nigeria.

Introduction: time to clinical recovery from COVID-19 infection and associated factors has not been explored in Nigeria. This study was conducted to assess the predictors and time to recovery from COVID-19 among patients attended to at the treatment centers in Ekiti State, South West. Methods: a facility-based retrospective cohort study was conducted between March 2020 to October 2021. Laboratory confirmed COVID-19 positive test result of 586 patients receiving treatment at the treatment centres in Ekiti were included. Data were extracted from COVID-19 intake forms and medical records of patients. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and survival analysis methods including Cox proportional hazards regression model. Level of significance was set at 5%. Results: the mean age of the patients was 43.46 (SD 0.74) years. Forty-seven percent (47%) of the patients were aged 25-44 years, fifty-one percent (51%) were males. The median recovery time of COVID-19 patients was 21 days (IQR: 14-23). Being a male-patient (95% CI 20.46-21.54), older age (95% CI 20.14-21.86), not admitted in the hospital (95% CI 22.74-23.26), and associated multiple co-morbidities (95% CI 17.65-28.35) were associated with delayed recovery time. Predictors of recovery time of patients from COVID-19 infection were admission status (aHR: 0.71, 95%CI 0.56-0.88; p=0.002) and symptoms on admission (aHR: 0.81, 95%CI 0.66-0.99; p=0.020). Conclusion: patients with comorbidities, older and those not admitted were more likely to have a delayed clinical recovery from COVID-19. Knowledge of the predictors might help health professionals in risk stratification and better management of patients with COVID-19.

Private sector engagement in the COVID-19 response: experiences and lessons from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal and Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Private entities play a major role in health globally. However, their contribution has not been fully optimized to strengthen delivery of public health services. The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed health systems and precipitated coalitions between public and private sectors to address critical gaps in the response. We conducted a study to document the public and private sector partnerships and engagements to inform current and future responses to public health emergencies. METHODS: This was a multi-country cross-sectional study conducted in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal and Uganda between November 2020 and March 2021 to assess responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted a scoping literature review and key informant interviews (KIIs) with private and public health sector stakeholders. The literature reviewed included COVID-19 country guidelines and response plans, program reports and peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed publications. KIIs elicited information on country approaches and response strategies specifically the engagement of the private sector in any of the strategic response operations. RESULTS: Across the 4 countries, private sector strengthened laboratory systems, COVID-19 case management, risk communication and health service continuity. In the DRC and Nigeria, private entities supported contact tracing and surveillance activities. Across the 4 countries, the private sector supported expansion of access to COVID-19 testing services through establishing partnerships with the public health sector albeit at unregulated fees. In Senegal and Uganda, governments established partnerships with private sector to manufacture COVID-19 rapid diagnostic tests. The private sector also contributed to treatment and management of COVID-19 cases. In addition, private entities provided personal protective equipment, conducted risk communication to promote adherence to safety procedures and health promotion for health service continuity. However, there were concerns related to reporting, quality and cost of services, calling for quality and price regulation in the provision of services. CONCLUSIONS: The private sector contributed to the COVID-19 response through engagement in COVID-19 surveillance and testing, management of COVID-19 cases, and health promotion to maintain health access. There is a need to develop regulatory frameworks for sustainable public-private engagements including regulation of pricing, quality assurance and alignment with national plans and priorities during response to epidemics.

Prevalence, determinants and coercive strategies relating to marital rape among women in Oyo State, Nigeria.

Objectives: The study assessed the prevalence, determinants and coercive strategies relating to Marital Rape (MR) among women in Oyo State, Nigeria. Design: A cross-sectional survey. Setting: The study was conducted in 120 communities, 30 wards, 6 Local Government Areas in Oyo State. Participants: A total of 1200 ever-married women aged 18-60 years were recruited using a multi-stage sampling. Methods: The participants were interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire which captured MR-related experiences and coercive strategies. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Chi-square, and logistic regression. Odds ratios (OR) and their corresponding 95% Confidence Interval (CI) were reported. Results: Respondents' mean age was 36.6±9.6 years, while husbands' mean age was 42.1±10.3 years. Most (n=1094, 91.2%) respondents had ever married once and 82.8% (n=993) were currently married. The prevalence of MR was 15.3%. Physical force (n=153, 25.9%), followed by threat (n=139, 23.5%) topped the list of coercive strategies involved in MR. Currently, married women were at a higher risk of MR (OR: 2.73, CI: 1.39-5.37, P = 0.04) relative to divorced women. Respondents whose husbands were aged <30 years were at lower risk of MR (OR:0.03, CI: 0.002-0.47, P=0.01). Women who take decisions on sex alone were more likely to suffer MR (OR:3.95, CI: 1.38 - 11.31, P=0.01). Conclusions: Marital rape existed among women with increased risk among those who were currently married, married to older partners or sole decision-makers on sex. Physical force was the commonest coercive strategy used to facilitate MR. Community-based MR -related interventions are recommended. Funding: None declared.

Trend and decomposition analysis of risk factors of childbirths with no one present in Nigeria, 1990-2018.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the trend and decompose the determinants of delivery with no one present (NOP) at birth with an in-depth subnational analysis in Nigeria. DESIGN: Cross-sectional. SETTING: Nigeria, with five waves of nationally representative data in 1990, 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018. PARTICIPANTS: Women with at least one childbirth within 5 years preceding each wave of data collection. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome of interest is giving birth with NOP at delivery defined as childbirth assisted by no one. Data were analysed using Χ2 and multivariate decomposition analyses at a 5% significance level. RESULTS: The prevalence of having NOP at delivery was 15% over the studied period, ranges from 27% in 1990 to 11% in 2018. Overall, the prevalence of having NOP at delivery reduced significantly by 35% and 61% within 2003-2018 and 1990-2018, respectively (p<0.001). We found wide variations in NOP across the states in Nigeria. The highest NOP practice was in Zamfara (44%), Kano (40%) and Katsina (35%); while the practice was 0.1% in Bayelsa, 0.8% in Enugu, 0.9% in Osun and 1.1% in Imo state. The decomposition analysis of the changes in having NOP at delivery showed that 85.4% and 14.6% were due to differences in women's characteristics (endowment) and effects (coefficient), respectively. The most significant contributions to the changes were the decision-maker of healthcare utilisation (49%) and women educational status (24%). Only Gombe experienced a significant increase (p<0.05) in the level of having NOP between 2003 and 2018. CONCLUSION: A long-term decreasing secular trend of NOP at delivery was found in Nigeria. NOP is more prevalent in the northern states than in the south. Achieving zero prevalence of NOP at delivery in Nigeria would require a special focus on healthcare utilisation, enhancing maternal education and healthcare utilisation decision-making power.

A comparative analysis of the influence of contraceptive use and fertility desire on the duration of second birth interval in four sub-Saharan African countries.

BACKGROUND: Fertility decline characterised by inter-birth intervals remains rather slow or stall in many countries of sub-Saharan African (SSA). Non-adherence to optimal inter-birth intervals often occasioned by low prevalence of contraceptive use and high fertility desires often lead to poor maternal and child health outcomes. Additionally, information on the influence of contraception and fertility desire on interval between first and second births (SBI) is rarely available. This study therefore aimed to examine the influence of fertility desire and contraception on SBI among women in four SSA countries. METHODS: We analysed cross-sectional data on women aged 15-49 years who participated in the recent Demographic and Health Surveys in DR Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria and South Africa. Semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards regression was employed for the analysis at 5% significance level. RESULTS: The median time to second birth was 34 months in DR Congo; 35 months, Nigeria; 42 months, Ethiopia; and 71 months, South Africa. About 70% of the women desired additional child(ren) and two-thirds have never used contraceptive in both Nigeria and DR Congo. The hazard of second birth was significantly lower among women who desired additional child(ren) compared to desired for no more child in DR Congo (aHR = 0.93; CI: 0.89-0.97), Ethiopia (aHR = 0.64; CI: 0.61-0.67) and South Africa (aHR = 0.51; CI: 0.47-0.55). Women who had never used contraceptive were 12%, 20% and 24% more likely to lengthen SBI than those who were current users in DR Congo, Nigeria and South Africa respectively. DR Congo and Nigerian women were about two times more likely to shorten SBI compared with their South African counterparts. Other significant determinants of SBI include ethnicity, rural residential, age and marital status at first birth, wealth and employment status. CONCLUSION: Findings showed differentials in the linkage between second birth interval and the desired fertility and contraception by country, demonstrating the importance of context. The contribution of these factors to second birth interval requires country context-specific attention if further decline in fertility and poor health outcomes associated with sub-optimal inter-birth interval is to be attained in SSA.

What do malaria program officers want to learn? A survey of perspectives on a proposed malaria short course in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: In disease control, the program officers are vital to the successful implementation of control strategies. However, poor knowledge of the disease and its control, staff attrition, and lack of intentional training for new staff can lead to under-performance and ineffectiveness of interventions. Thus, the Nigeria Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Program, in collaboration with National Malaria Elimination Program, planned a malaria short course (MSC) to strengthen the capacity of current program managers and incoming staff. To guide the development of the curriculum for the MSC, we conducted a needs assessment survey to ascertain the perceived usefulness of the MSC, the priority rating of MSC thematic domains and associated factors. METHODS: Overall, 384 purposively selected respondents across ten states and the Federal Capital Territory in Nigeria were interviewed. These comprised malaria and non-malaria control program staff at state, local government area (LGA) and ward levels. We administered a structured questionnaire to elicit information on socio-demographics, training needs, priority malaria thematic domains, perceived course usefulness and willingness of ministries/organizations to release staff to attend the MSC. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics at p<0.05. RESULTS: Mean age was 43.9 (standard deviation: 7.6 years), 172 (44.8%) were females. Of the 384 respondents, 181 (47.1%), 144 (37.5%) and 59 (15.4%) were at the ward, LGA and state levels, respectively. Seventy-two (18.8%) had never worked in malaria control program. Majority (98.7%, n = 379) reported the need for further training, 382 (99.5%) opined that the course would be useful, and all affirmed their employers' willingness towards their participation at the training. Respondents rated high the domains of basic malariology, malaria treatment, malaria prevention, surveillance/data management, use of computers, leadership skills, program management and basic statistics. Predictors of malaria topical domains' high rating were gender (odds ratio (OR) = 6.77; 95% CI:3.55-12.93) and educational qualifications (OR = 0.48; 95% CI:0.26-0.89). CONCLUSIONS: A malaria short course is a necessity and appropriate for program officers at different levels of health administration in Nigeria to achieve malaria elimination, taking into consideration the challenges of human resource retention. The outcome of this study should inform the curriculum and the delivery of the MSC.

Situation assessment and natural dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, 31 May 2020.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) remains a global public health issue due to its high transmission and case fatality rate. There is apprehension on how to curb the spread and mitigate the socio-economic impacts of the pandemic, but timely and reliable daily confirmed cases' estimates are pertinent to the pandemic's containment. This study therefore conducted a situation assessment and applied simple predictive models to explore COVID-19 progression in Nigeria as at 31 May 2020. METHODS: Data used for this study were extracted from the websites of the European Centre for Disease Control (World Bank data) and Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. Besides descriptive statistics, four predictive models were fitted to investigate the pandemic natural dynamics. RESULTS: The case fatality rate of COVID-19 was 2.8%. A higher number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 was reported daily after the relaxation of lockdown than before and during lockdown. Of the 36 states in Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory, 35 have been affected with COVID-19. Most active cases were in Lagos (n = 4064; 59.2%), followed by Kano (n = 669; 9.2%). The percentage of COVID-19 recovery in Nigeria (29.5%) was lower compared to South Africa (50.3%), but higher compared to Kenya (24.1%). The cubic polynomial model had the best fit. The projected value for COVID-19 cumulative cases for 30 June 2020 in Nigeria was 27,993 (95% C.I: 27,001-28,986). CONCLUSION: The daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 are increasing in Nigeria. Increasing testing capacity for the disease may further reveal more confirmed cases. As observed in this study, the cubic polynomial model currently offers a better prediction of the future COVID-19 cases in Nigeria.

Preventable multiple high-risk birth behaviour and infant survival in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Globally, infant mortality has declined considerably but has remained unacceptably high in sub-Saharan Africa, especially Nigeria where infant mortality rate is 67/1000 live births. To facilitate infant mortality reduction in Nigeria, an understanding of the synergistic effect of bio-demographic characteristics of mothers known as High Risk Birth Behaviours (HrBBs) is important. We therefore investigated the influence of HrBBs on infant survival in Nigeria. METHODS: This cross-sectional study design utilized data from the 2018 round of Nigerian Demographic Health Survey. The study participants were a representative sample of women of reproductive age (n = 21,350) who had given birth within the 5 years preceding the survey. HrBBs was measured through integration of information on maternal age at child's birth, parity, and preceding birth interval with respect to the most recent child. The HrBBs was categorized as none, single and multiple. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard model (α =0.05). RESULTS: The mean age of the women was 29.7 ± 7.2 and 4.1% had experienced infant death. Infant mortality was highest among women with multiple HrBBs (5.1%). Being a male, having small size at birth, failure to receive tetanus injection, non-use of contraceptives and living in the core-north (North West and North East) predisposed children to higher risk of dying before 12 months of age. The hazard ratio of infant mortality was significantly higher among infants of mothers in multiple HrBBs category (aHR = 1.66; CI: 1.33-2.06) compared to their counterparts with no HrBBs. CONCLUSION: Multiple HrBBs increase the chances of dying among infants in Nigeria. Screening women for HrBBs for special health attention during pregnancy, birth and postnatal period will alleviate infant death in Nigeria.

Cohort analysis of the state of female genital cutting in Nigeria: prevalence, daughter circumcision and attitude towards its discontinuation.

BACKGROUND: Female genital cutting (FGC) inflicts life-long injuries on women and their female children. It constitutes a violation of women's fundamental human rights and threats to bodily integrity. Though decreasing, the practice is high and widespread in Nigeria despite efforts towards its eradication. This study was conducted to perform cohort analysis of the state of FGC between the years 2009 and 2018 in Nigeria. RESULTS: The study found that that FGC has reduced over the years from 56.3% among the 1959-1963 birth cohort to 25.5% among 1994-1998 cohorts but a rise in FGC between 1994-1998 cohorts and 1999-2003 cohorts (28.4%). The percentage of respondents who circumcised their daughters reduced from 40.1% among the oldest birth cohort to 3.6% among the younger cohort. Birth-cohort, religion, education, residence, region, and ethnicity were associated with FGC. Factors associated with the daughter's circumcision were birth-cohort, religion, residence, region, ethnicity, wealth, marital status, FGC status of the respondent, and FGC required by religion. Similar factors were found for discontinuation intention. CONCLUSIONS: The practice of FGC is still high but decreasing among younger birth-cohorts in Nigeria. There is no significant change in the perception of the discontinuation of FGC. More awareness about the adverse effects of FGC, particularly among women with poor education in Nigeria will greatly reduce this cultural menace's timely eradication.