Transforming Hypertension Diagnosis and Management in The Era of Artificial Intelligence: A 2023 National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Workshop Report.

Hypertension is among the most important risk factors for cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and dementia. The artificial intelligence (AI) field is advancing quickly, and there has been little discussion on how AI could be leveraged for improving the diagnosis and management of hypertension. AI technologies, including machine learning tools, could alter the way we diagnose and manage hypertension, with potential impacts for improving individual and population health. The development of successful AI tools in public health and health care systems requires diverse types of expertise with collaborative relationships between clinicians, engineers, and data scientists. Unbiased data sources, management, and analyses remain a foundational challenge. From a diagnostic standpoint, machine learning tools may improve the measurement of blood pressure and be useful in the prediction of incident hypertension. To advance the management of hypertension, machine learning tools may be useful to find personalized treatments for patients using analytics to predict response to antihypertension medications and the risk for hypertension-related complications. However, there are real-world implementation challenges to using AI tools in hypertension. Herein, we summarize key findings from a diverse group of stakeholders who participated in a workshop held by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute in March 2023. Workshop participants presented information on communication gaps between clinical medicine, data science, and engineering in health care; novel approaches to estimating BP, hypertension risk, and BP control; and real-world implementation challenges and issues.

Comparative Evaluation of Anti-microbial Activity of Herbal, Homeopathic, and Conventional Dentifrices Against Oral Microflora Using the Disc Diffusion Method: An In Vitro Study.

Aim To assess the antimicrobial activity of herbal, homeopathic, and conventional dentifrices against oral microorganisms. Methodology Mueller Hilton agar was used to cultivate distinct strains of Streptococcus mutans and Enterococcus faecalis, whereas Candida albicans was cultured on a potato dextrose agar medium. Diffusion ratios of 1:5, 1:10, and 1:15 were obtained by diluting 1 gram of each dentifrice (KP Namboodiri, Homeodent, and Colgate Strong Teeth) in 4 ml, 9 ml, and 14 ml of distilled water, respectively. The culture medium was filled with sterile discs. Twenty µl of each dilution of prepared dentifrice formulations were incorporated using a micropipette. The agar plates were incubated for 24 hours at 37ºC. Result The findings indicate that there was a higher zone of inhibition against Streptococcus mutans with herbal dentifrice at 10 mm, 8 mm, and 6.5 mm, followed by conventional dentifrice at 10 mm, 7.5 mm, and 7 mm, and the lowest with homeopathic dentifrice at 8 mm, 7 mm, and 7 mm at 1:5, 1:10 and 1:15 dilutions, respectively. Conventional dentifrice was found to inhibit Enterococcus faecalis at 9 mm, 8 mm, and 7 mm with 1:5, 1:10, and 1:15 dilutions followed by herbal dentifrice at 9 mm, 7 mm with 1:5, 1:10 dilutions, and no inhibition at 1:15 dilution. In contrast, homeopathic dentifrice displayed no inhibition at 1:5, 1:10, and 1:15 dilutions. Neither homeopathic nor conventional dentifrices inhibited Candida albicans, but herbal dentifrices showed a 10 mm zone of inhibition at 1:10 dilution. Conclusion Conventional and herbal dentifrices were found to be more effective against Streptococcus mutans than the homeopathic dentifrice used in the study, whereas herbal dentifrice was more effective against Candida albicans when compared to conventional and homeopathic dentifrices.

Numerical and graphical simulation of the non-linear fractional dynamical system of bone mineralization.

The objective of the present study was to improve our understanding of the complex biological process of bone mineralization by performing mathematical modeling with the Caputo-Fabrizio fractional operator. To obtain a better understanding of Komarova's bone mineralization process, we have thoroughly examined the boundedness, existence, and uniqueness of solutions and stability analysis within this framework. To determine how model parameters affect the behavior of the system, sensitivity analysis was carried out. Furthermore, the fractional Adams-Bashforth method has been used to carry out numerical and graphical simulations. Our work is significant owing to its comparison of fractional- and integer-order models, which provides novel insight into the effectiveness of fractional operators in representing the complex dynamics of bone mineralization.

Association of neighborhood socioeconomic status with echocardiographic parameters and re-admission following transcatheter aortic valve replacement.

BACKGROUND: Data on predictors of poor hemodynamic presentation and rehospitalizations following transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) are limited. We evaluate the association between neighborhood socioeconomic status (NSES) on echocardiographic presentation and post-TAVR readmission at a high-volume institution. METHODS: All patients undergoing TAVR at a single institution between 2012 and 2022 were included. Patient addresses, baseline variables including Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) preoperative risk of mortality and frailty, and post-procedural outcomes were extracted from electronic health records. Using a validated US Census Bureau Index, the NSES of each patient (1-100) was tabulated, with lower values correlating to increased social deprivation. Patients were separated into four ranked groups based on NSES (rank 1: 1-25, rank 4: 76-100). Multivariable regression was performed to determine variables associated with number of days hospitalized in one-year following index TAVR procedure. RESULTS: A total of 2031 patients were included. The median NSES was 68 (IQR: 53-80). There was a total of 232 (11.4%) readmissions. The median number of days hospitalized in one year following TAVR was 4 (interquartile range [IQR]: 2-7) After adjusting for baseline variables including STS risk score and patient frailty, compared to patients in the lowest ranked socioeconomic group, patients of higher NSES were associated with lower aortic valve gradients at baselines (Exp[ß]=0.997, 95% CI: 0.993-0.999, P=0.049). Additionally, compared to patients in the lowest ranked socioeconomic group, patients of NSES were associated with shorter duration of readmission after risk-factor adjustments (Exp[ß]=0.996, 95% CI: 0.992-0.999, P=0.032). CONCLUSIONS: Patients of lower socioeconomic status are associated with higher aortic valve gradient at baseline and more days hospitalized in the first year after their index TAVR procedure after adjusting for other risk factors. As TAVR volume continues to expand, physicians and health systems must consider this independent factor when determining patient prognosis and readmission policies.

Making the health system work for over 25 million births annually: drivers of the notable decline in maternal and newborn mortality in India.

INTRODUCTION: India's progress in reducing maternal and neonatal mortality since the 1990s was faster than the regional average. We systematically analysed how national health policies, services for maternal and newborn health, and socioeconomic contextual changes, drove these mortality reductions. METHODS: The study's mixed-methods design integrated quantitative trend analyses of mortality, intervention coverage and equity since the 1990s, using the sample registration system and national surveys, with interpretive understandings from policy documents and 13 key informant interviews. RESULTS: India's maternal mortality ratio (MMR) declined from 412 to 103 maternal deaths per 100 000 live births between 1997-1998 and 2017-2019. The neonatal mortality rate (NMR) declined from 46 to 22 per 1000 live births between 1997 and 2019. The average annual rate of mortality reduction increased over time. During this period, coverage of any antenatal care (57%-94%), quality antenatal care (37%-85%) and institutional delivery (34%-90%) increased, as did caesarean section rates among the poorest tertile (2%-9%); these coverage gains occurred primarily in the government (public) sector. The fastest rates for increasing coverage occurred during 2005-2012.The 2005-2012 National Rural Health Mission (which became the National Health Mission in 2012) catalysed bureaucratic innovations, additional resources, pro-poor commitments and accountability. These efforts occurred alongside smaller family sizes and improvements in macroeconomic growth, mobile and road networks, women's empowerment, and nutrition. These together reduced high-risk births and improved healthcare access, particularly among the poor. CONCLUSION: Rapid reduction in NMR and MMR in India was accompanied by increased coverage of maternal and newborn health interventions. Government programmes strengthened public sector services, thereby expanding the reach of these interventions. Simultaneously, socioeconomic and demographic shifts led to fewer high-risk births. The study's integrated methodology is relevant for generating comprehensive knowledge to advance universal health coverage.

Living in disadvantaged neighborhoods linked to less intervention for severe aortic stenosis.

To investigate the association between area deprivation index (ADI) and aortic valve replacement (AVR) in patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS). Patients aged 40-95 years with severe AS confirmed by echocardiography were included. The 9-digit zip code of patient residence address was used to identify the ADI ranking, based on which patients were divided into 5 groups (with Group E being most deprived). The rates of AV intervention were compared among 5 groups using competing risks analysis, with death as a competing event. We included 1751 patients with severe AS from 2013 to 2018 followed for a median 2.8 (interquartile range, 1.5-4.8) years. The more distressed ADI groups tended to be younger (P = 0.002), female (P < 0.001), and of African American race (P < 0.001), have higher presentation of sepsis (P = 0.031), arrhythmia (P = 0.022), less likely to have previous diagnosis of AS (P < 0.001); and were less likely to undergo AVR (52.5% vs 46.9% vs 46.1% vs 48.9% vs 39.7%, P = 0.023). Using competing risk analysis, the highest ADI group (E) were the least and the lowest ADI group (A) the most likely to undergo AVR (Gray's test, P = 0.025). The association between ADI ranking and AVR rates was influenced by sex and race. Within group analysis, there was significant association between race and AVR (Gray's test, P < 0.001), and between sex and AVR (Gray's test, P < 0.001). Patients with severe AS living in more deprived neighborhoods were less likely to undergo aortic valve interventions, which was influenced by female gender, and African American race.

Society for Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance 2022 Cases of SCMR case series.

"Cases of SCMR" is a case series on the SCMR website (https://www.scmr.org) for the purpose of education. The cases reflect the clinical presentation, and the use of cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) in the diagnosis and management of cardiovascular disease. The 2022 digital collection of cases are presented in this manuscript.

Outcomes of a 3-Year Quality Improvement Study to Improve Advance Care Planning in Patients With Decompensated Cirrhosis.

INTRODUCTION: To report outcomes of a 3-year quality improvement pilot study to improve advance directive (AD) completion. METHODS: The pilot consisted of champions, education, electronic health record templates, and workflow changes. We assessed changes, predictors, and effects of AD completion. RESULTS: The pilot led to greater (8.3%-36%) and earlier AD completion, particularly among those divorced, with alcohol-associated liver disease, and with higher Model of End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium score. Decedents whose AD specified nonaggressive goals experienced lower hospital lengths of stay. DISCUSSION: Advance care planning initiatives are feasible and may reduce health care utilization among decedents requesting less aggressive care.

Post-surgical Outcomes of Different Surgical Techniques in Hirschsprung's Disease: A Literature Review.

Hirschsprung's disease (HD) is a rare condition that affects newborns and is characterized by the lack of ganglion cells in the colon. Typical symptoms include difficulty passing stool, vomiting, and trouble feeding. Various surgical methods are available to manage the condition. The aim of the study is to investigate and compare the post-surgical outcomes of different surgical techniques used in the treatment of HD. A thorough literature search was conducted using various electronic databases to identify relevant studies to be referred to. Double-blinded screening of the identified articles led to the final selection of 40 out of 440 HD, including transanal endorectal pull-through (TERPT), laparoscopic approaches, and modified techniques. Several studies have investigated surgical procedures for HD, including TERPT, laparoscopic methods, and modified techniques. These have shown positive outcomes, with fewer complications, improved bowel function, and favorable cosmetic results. Individual patient characteristics and surgeon expertise should guide procedure selection. Surgery for HD aims to restore normal bowel function, but post-surgical outcomes can include constipation or fecal incontinence. Complications like enterocolitis, anastomotic stricture, and sphincter damage may occur. Laparoscopic approaches have shorter hospital stays. However long-term follow-up is essential to assess quality of life, psychological well-being, and potential side effects.

Predicting Heterogeneity in Patient Response to Morphine Treatment for Neonatal Opioid Withdrawal Syndrome.

Infants with neonatal opioid withdrawal syndrome commonly receive morphine treatment to manage their withdrawal signs. However, the effectiveness of this pharmacotherapy in managing the infants' withdrawal signs vary widely. We sought to understand how information available early in infant monitoring can anticipate this treatment response, focusing on early modified Finnegan Neonatal Abstinence Scoring System (FNASS) scores, polygenic risk for opioid dependence (polygenic risk score (PRS)), and drug exposure. Using k-means clustering, we divided the 213 infants in our cohort into 3 groups based on their FNASS scores in the 12 hours before and after the initiation of pharmacotherapy. We found that these groups were pairwise significantly different for risk factors, including methadone exposure, and for in-hospital outcomes, including total morphine received, length of stay, and highest FNASS score. Whereas PRS was not predictive of receipt of treatment, PRS was pairwise significantly different between a subset of the groups. Using tree-based machine learning methods, we then constructed network graphs of the relationships among these groups, FNASS scores, PRS, drug exposures, and in-hospital outcomes. The resulting networks also showed meaningful connection between early FNASS scores and PRS, as well as between both of those and later in-hospital outcomes. These analyses present clinicians with the opportunity to better anticipate infant withdrawal progression and prepare accordingly, whether with expedited morphine treatment or non-pharmacotherapeutic alternative treatments.

Deprescription of aspirin for primary prevention is uncommon at discharge in hospitalised patients with gastrointestinal bleeding.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend against aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular events in individuals with a history of gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB). It is unknown how often patients on primary prevention aspirin hospitalised with GIB have aspirin discontinued at discharge. AIMS: To determine the rate of aspirin deprescription and explore long-term outcomes in patients taking aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular events. METHODS: We evaluated all patients hospitalised at Yale-New Haven Hospital between January 2014 and October 2021 with GIB who were on aspirin for primary prevention. Our primary endpoint was the frequency of aspirin deprescription at discharge. Our secondary endpoints were post-discharge hospitalisations for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) or GIB. Time-to-event analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier curves and the log-rank test. RESULTS: We identified 320 patients with GIB on aspirin for primary prevention: median age was 72 (interquartile range [IQR] 61-81) years and 297 (92.8%) were on aspirin 81 mg daily. Only 25 (9.0%) patients surviving their hospitalisation were deprescribed aspirin at discharge. Among 260 patients with follow-up (median 1103 days; IQR 367-1670), MACE developed post-discharge in 2/25 (8.0%) with aspirin deprescription versus 37/235 (15.7%) with aspirin continuation (log-rank p = 0.28). 0/25 patients with aspirin deprescription had subsequent hospitalisation for GIB versus 17/235 (7.2%) who continued aspirin (log-rank p = 0.13). CONCLUSIONS: Aspirin for primary cardiovascular prevention was rarely deprescribed at discharge in patients hospitalised with GIB. Processes designed to ensure appropriate deprescription of aspirin are crucial to improve adherence to guidelines, thereby improving the risk-benefit ratio in patients at high risk of subsequent GIB hospitalisations with minimal increased risk of MACE.

Impact of secondary mitral regurgitation on survival in atrial and ventricular dysfunction.

BACKGROUND: Natural history of atrial and ventricular secondary mitral regurgitation (SMR) is poorly understood. We compared the impact of the degree of SMR on survival between atrial and ventricular dysfunction. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients who underwent echocardiography in a healthcare network between 2013-2018. We compared the survival of patients with atrial and ventricular dysfunction, using propensity scores developed from differences in patient demographics and comorbidities within SMR severity strata (none, mild, moderate or severe). We fitted Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the risk-adjusted hazards of death across different severities of SMR between patients with atrial and ventricular dysfunction. RESULTS: Of 11,987 patients included (median age 69 years [IQR 58-80]; 46% women), 6,254 (52%) had isolated atrial dysfunction, and 5,733 (48%) had ventricular dysfunction. 3,522 patients were matched from each arm using coarsened exact matching. Hazard of death in atrial dysfunction without SMR was comparable to ventricular dysfunction without SMR (HR 1.1, 95% CI 0.9-1.3). Using ventricular dysfunction without SMR as reference, hazards of death remained higher in ventricular dysfunction than in atrial dysfunction across increasing severities of SMR: mild SMR (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.8-2.4 in ventricular dysfunction versus HR 1.7, 95%CI 1.5-2.0 in atrial dysfunction) and moderate/severe SMR (HR 2.8, 95%CI 2.4-3.4 versus HR 2.4, 95%CI 2.0-2.9). CONCLUSIONS: SMR across all severities were associated with better survival in atrial dysfunction than in ventricular dysfunction, though the magnitude of the diminishing survival were similar between atrial and ventricular dysfunction in increasing severity of SMRs.

Direct relationship between transvalvular velocity and cardiac dysfunction, morbidity, and mortality in patients with aortic stenosis.

OBJECTIVE: Current guidelines recommend intervention in subjects with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis (AS), even though any degree of AS is associated with a higher risk of mortality. We investigated the association between the degree of AS, delineated by transvalvular flow velocity, and patient morbidity and mortality. METHODS: Medically managed patients aged 40-95 years with maximum flow velocity (Vmax ) by echocardiography between 2013 and 2018 were stratified into five groups (A-E) based on the 75th, 90th, 97.5th, and the 99th percentiles of Vmax distribution. Patient characteristics, cardiac structural changes, and end-organ disease were compared using Kruskal-Wallis and Cochran-Armitage tests. Mortality over a median of 2.8 (1.52-4.8) years was compared using Kaplan-Meier curves and risk estimates were derived from the Cox model. RESULTS: The Vmax was reported in 37,131 patients. There was a steady increase (from Group A towards E) in age, Caucasian race, structural cardiac changes, end-organ morbidities, and all-cause mortality. In reference to Group A, there as an increased risk of mortality in Groups B (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.3; confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-1.35; p < .0001), C (HR = 1.5; CI: 1.4-1.6; p < .0001), and D (HR = 1.8; CI: 1.6-2; p < .0001), with an exponential increase in Group E (HR = 2.5; CI: 2.2-2.8; p < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: A direct, strong correlation exists between the degree of AS and cardiac structural changes and mortality. Patients with Vmax ≥ 97.5th percentile (≥3.2 m/s) might benefit from early intervention.

Two hundred robotic mitral valve repair procedures for degenerative mitral regurgitation: the Yale experience.

Background: Robotic surgery has gained popularity over the past two decades due to the benefits related to smaller surgical incisions, enhanced technical dexterity and better intraoperative visualization. We present the Yale experience of the first two hundred totally endoscopic, robotic-assisted mitral valve repair procedures for the treatment of degenerative mitral regurgitation. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing totally endoscopic, robotic-assisted isolated or concomitant mitral valve repair for degenerative mitral regurgitation at Yale-New Haven Hospital from October 2018 to April 2022. Mitral valve repair procedures for rheumatic or secondary functional mitral regurgitation and planned robotic-assisted mitral valve replacement cases were excluded. Results: Two hundred consecutive procedures were performed. The median age was 65 years (interquartile range, 58-73 years). Six patients (3.0%) had a history of mediastinal radiation, four patients (2.0%) had previous cardiac surgery, and one patient (0.5%) had cardiac dextroversion. Median cardiopulmonary bypass and aortic cross-clamp times were 122 and 79 minutes, respectively. Femoral vessel cannulation was performed percutaneously in 57 (28.5%) patients with no major access-site related complication. Aortic cross-clamping was performed with the endoaortic balloon occlusion device in 151 (75.5%) patients. No conversions to sternotomy occurred. Satisfactory repair was achieved in 100% of cases, with 184 (92.0%) and 16 (8.0%) of patients having trace/none or mild residual mitral regurgitation, respectively. Forty-two patients (21.0%) underwent concomitant Cox-maze procedure and 25 patients (12.5%) underwent concomitant tricuspid valve repair. Thirty-day mortality rate was 0.5%, with an observed-to-expected ratio of 0.53. Two patients (1.0%) underwent re-exploration for bleeding, one had early postoperative stroke (0.5%), five developed pneumothorax (2.5%) and two required dialysis for acute renal failure (1.0%). The median length of hospital stay was four days. Conclusions: Excellent short-term outcomes can be achieved in experienced centers for the treatment of degenerative mitral regurgitation with a totally endoscopic, robotic-assisted approach.

Role of cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging in COVID-19 recovered patients: A short-term follow-up study.

OBJECTIVE: Cardiac involvement in recovered COVID-19 patients assessed by cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). METHODS: Subjects recently recovered from COVID-19 and with an abnormal left ventricular global longitudinal strain were enrolled. Cardiac MRI in all the enrolled subjects was done at baseline (within 30-90 days following recovery from COVID-19) with a follow-up scan at 6 months in individuals with an abnormal baseline scan. Additionally, 20 age-and sex-matched individuals were enrolled as healthy controls (HCs). RESULTS: All the 30 enrolled subjects were symptomatic during active COVID-19 disease and were categorized as mild: 11 (36.7%), moderate: 6 (20%), and severe: 13 (43.3%). Of the 30 patients, 16 (53.3%) had abnormal CMR findings. Myocardial edema was reported in 12 (40%) patients while 10 (33.3%) had late gadolinium enhancement (LGE). No difference was observed in terms of conventional left ventricular (LV) parameters; however, COVID-19-recovered patients had significantly lower right ventricular (RV) ejection fraction, RV stroke volume, and RV cardiac index compared to HCs. Follow-up scan was abnormal in 4/16 (25%) with LGE persisting in three patients (who had severe COVID-19 [3/4;75%]). Subjects with severe COVID-19 had a greater frequency of LGE (53.8%) and myocardial edema (61.5%) as compared to mild and moderate cases. Myocardial T1 (1284 ± 43.8 ms vs. 1147.6 ± 68.4 ms; p < .0001) and T2 values (50.8 ± 16.7 ms vs. 42.6 ± 3.6 ms; p = .04) were significantly higher in post COVID-19 subjects compared to HCs. Similarly, T1 and T2 values of severe COVID-19 patients were significantly higher compared to mild and moderate cases. CONCLUSIONS: An abnormal CMR was seen in half of the recovered patients with persistent abnormality in one-fourth at 6 months. Our study suggests a need for closer follow-up among recovered subjects in order to evaluate for long-term cardiovascular sequelae. COVID-19 causes structural changes in the myocardium in a small segment of patients with partial spontaneous resolution.

COVID-19 Antibodies as Predictor of Severe Dengue among Hospitalized Children with Dengue Illness in the Post-third-wave Period of COVID-19 Infection in India.

BACKGROUND: There were widespread unconfirmed reports about the increased severity of dengue post-second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India. It is known that a second dengue infection with a different strain in an individual can trigger antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). A similar phenomenon is hypothesized for severe COVID-19 infection since both dengue and COVID-19 are viral diseases with different and varying strains. However, much research is needed to confirm this hypothesis. In this context, we intended to assess the severity of dengue illness in relation to previous severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, possibly the role of COVID-19 antibodies as an early predictor of severe dengue illness. OBJECTIVE: To assess the utility of COVID-19 antibodies for early identification of severe dengue illness among children in the post-third-wave period of COVID-19 infection in India. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All hospitalized children with dengue illness were categorized as severe (shock and/or hemorrhage and/or multi-organ dysfunction) and non-severe dengue illness (dengue with or without warning signs) as per WHO definition. COVID-19 antibody titers were estimated in both groups. Clinical features and seroprevalence of COVID-19 antibodies were compared in both groups. RESULT: A total of 31 children were studied (13 severe and 18 non-severe dengue illnesses). The most common symptoms prior to presenting to the hospital included fever (100% in both groups), vomiting (85% in severe and 63% in non-severe), abdominal pain (85% in severe and 50% in non-severe), poor feeding (54% in severe and 28% in non-severe), and skin rashes (15% in severe and none in non-severe). The mean duration from the onset of fever to the first hospital visit was 4.6 days in severe illness and 5.3 days in non-severe dengue illness. The mean duration of hospitalization was 9.7 days in severe dengue illness and 4.1 days in non-severe dengue illness. While 92.3% of all severe dengue had significantly higher COVID-19 antibody titers, it was found elevated only in 44.4% of the children with non-severe dengue illness (p-value 0.0059; Yates' corrected p-value 0.0179). CONCLUSION: Clinical symptoms prior to presenting to the hospital were fever, vomiting, abdominal pain, poor oral feeding, and skin rashes. While fever, vomiting, and abdominal pain were seen commonly in both severe and non-severe dengue illnesses, the presence of skin rash during febrile phase is associated with severe dengue illness only. Hospitalized children having severe dengue had increased seroprevalence of COVID-19 antibodies (92.3%) compared to children with non-severe dengue (44.4%). However, there is no corelation of the severity of dengue illness with absolute values of COVID-19 antibody levels. Therefore, the presence of COVID-19 antibodies (previous COVID-19 infection) can be a predictor of severe illness in children with dengue especially if associated with poor oral feeding and skin rashes. The limitation of the study is its lesser sample size to conclude any definitive statement; nevertheless, the study paves way for a similar cohort of a larger sample size to draw conclusions.

Screening Tool to Identify Patients with Advanced Aortic Valve Stenosis.

(1) Background: The clinical burden of aortic stenosis (AS) remains high in Western countries. Yet, there are no screening algorithms for this condition. We developed a risk prediction model to guide targeted screening for patients with AS. (2) Methods: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of all echocardiographic studies performed between 2013 and 2018 at a tertiary academic care center. We included reports of unique patients aged from 40 to 95 years. A logistic regression model was fitted for the risk of moderate and severe AS, with readily available demographics and comorbidity variables. Model performance was assessed by the C-index, and its calibration was judged by a calibration plot. (3) Results: Among the 38,788 reports yielded by inclusion criteria, there were 4200 (10.8%) patients with ≥moderate AS. The multivariable model demonstrated multiple variables to be associated with AS, including age, male gender, Caucasian race, Body Mass Index ≥ 30, and cardiovascular comorbidities and medications. C-statistics of the model was 0.77 and was well calibrated according to the calibration plot. An integer point system was developed to calculate the predicted risk of ≥moderate AS, which ranged from 0.0002 to 0.7711. The lower 20% of risk was approximately 0.15 (corresponds to a score of 252), while the upper 20% of risk was about 0.60 (corresponds to a score of 332 points). (4) Conclusions: We developed a risk prediction model to predict patients' risk of having ≥moderate AS based on demographic and clinical variables from a large population cohort. This tool may guide targeted screening for patients with advanced AS in the general population.

Aiding the prescriber: developing a machine learning approach to personalized risk modeling for chronic opioid therapy amongst US Army soldiers.

The opioid epidemic is a major policy concern. The widespread availability of opioids, which is fueled by physician prescribing patterns, medication diversion, and the interaction with potential illicit opioid use, has been implicated as proximal cause for subsequent opioid dependence and mortality. Risk indicators related to chronic opioid therapy (COT) at the point of care may influence physicians' prescribing decisions, potentially reducing rates of dependency and abuse. In this paper, we investigate the performance of machine learning algorithms for predicting the risk of COT. Using data on over 12 million observations of active duty US Army soldiers, we apply machine learning models to predict the risk of COT in the initial months of prescription. We use the area under the curve (AUC) as an overall measure of model performance, and we focus on the positive predictive value (PPV), which reflects the models' ability to accurately target military members for intervention. Of the many models tested, AUC ranges between 0.83 and 0.87. When we focus on the top 1% of members at highest risk, we observe a PPV value of 8.4% and 20.3% for months 1 and 3, respectively. We further investigate the performance of sparse models that can be implemented in sparse data environments. We find that when the goal is to identify patients at the highest risk of chronic use, these sparse linear models achieve a performance similar to models trained on hundreds of variables. Our predictive models exhibit high accuracy and can alert prescribers to the risk of COT for the highest risk patients. Optimized sparse models identify a parsimonious set of factors to predict COT: initial supply of opioids, the supply of opioids in the month being studied, and the number of prescriptions for psychotropic medications. Future research should investigate the possible effects of these tools on prescriber behavior (e.g., the benefit of clinician nudging at the point of care in outpatient settings).

Associations between hospitalist physician workload, length of stay, and return to the hospital.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalist physicians' workload-the total number of patients they care for daily-is rising in the U.S. Hospitalists report that increased workload negatively affects patients care. OBJECTIVE: Measure the associations between hospitalist physicians' workload and clinical outcomes. DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS: Observational study, using electronic health record (EHR) data, of adults hospitalized on the hospitalist service at Yale-New Haven Hospital from 2015-2018. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES: We defined hospitalists' workload as the number of patients they cared for on the first full hospital day of a given patient's encounter. We used multilevel Poisson and logistic regression to examine associations between workload and length of stay (LOS), return to the Emergency Department (ED), and readmission. We adjusted for sociodemographic factors, patient complexity and severity of illness, and weekend admission (for LOS) or discharge (for ED visits or readmission). RESULTS: We analyzed 38,141 hospitalizations. Median patient age was 64 years (IQR 51-78 years), 53% were female, and 34% were nonwhite. Mean workload was 15 patients (SD 3 patients; range 10-34 patients). LOS was prolonged by 0.05 days (95% CI 0.02, 0.08; p(0.001) when comparing the 75th workload percentile (16 patients) to the 25th workload percentile (13 patients). There were no associations between workload and ED visits or readmission within 7 and 30 days. CONCLUSIONS: There was a statistically significant but modest relationship between workload and LOS; workload was not associated with ED visits or readmissions.Given clinical reports of the deleterious effects of increased hospitalist workload, there is a need for prospective research assessing a range of outcomes, beyond those measurable in contemporary EHR data.