Preparing for the next respiratory pathogen pandemic: using tabletop simulation exercises to strengthen national planning in Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Lebanon and Mongolia.

The Preparedness and Resilience for Emerging Threats (PRET) initiative takes an innovative mode-of-transmission approach to pandemic planning by advocating for integrated preparedness and response systems and capacities for groups of pathogens with common transmission pathways. The World Health Organization (WHO) launched this initiative in 2023 with the publication of PRET Module 1 addressing respiratory pathogens. Exercise PanPRET-1 is a customizable tabletop simulation exercise (TTX) package developed to complement PRET Module 1. The exercise scenario focuses on strengthening capacities for multisectoral coordination, risk communication and community engagement, and the triggers for operational decision-making. This article reports on the experiences of the first four countries to implement Exercise PanPRET-1: Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Lebanon and Mongolia. Exercise outcomes demonstrated that PanPRET-1 can be an effective tool for testing pandemic plans in a multisectoral forum and identifying opportunities to improve preparedness and response in key domains. In quantitative evaluations in Cook Islands, Costa Rica and Mongolia, high proportions of exercise participants indicated that multiple aspects of the exercise were well-designed and were beneficial for improving health emergency preparedness. Exercise participants in Lebanon provided qualitative feedback indicating that they found the exercise to be beneficial. Conducting a TTX and monitoring the implementation of action plans based on exercise findings facilitates a country-owned whole-of-society vision for pandemic planning. Countries are encouraged to incorporate TTX such as Exercise PanPRET-1 into a continuous cycle of activity to improve pandemic preparedness.

Investing in health preparedness, response and resilience: a genomics costing tool focused on next generation sequencing.

The world has seen unprecedented gains in the global genomic surveillance capacities for pathogens with pandemic and epidemic potential within the last 4 years. To strengthen and sustain the gains made, WHO is working with countries and partners to implement the Global Genomic Surveillance Strategy for Pathogens with Pandemic and Epidemic Potential 2022-2032. A key technical product developed through these multi-agency collaborative efforts is a genomics costing tool (GCT), as sought by many countries. This tool was developed by five institutions - Association of Public Health Laboratories, FIND, The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, UK Health Security Agency, and the World Health Organization. These institutions developed the GCT to support financial planning and budgeting for SARS-CoV-2 next-generation sequencing activities, including bioinformatic analysis. The tool costs infrastructure, consumables and reagents, human resources, facility and quality management. It is being used by countries to (1) obtain costs of routine sequencing and bioinformatics activities, (2) optimize available resources, and (3) build an investment case for the scale-up or establishment of sequencing and bioinformatics activities. The tool has been validated and is available in English and Russian at https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240090866. This paper aims to highlight the rationale for developing the tool, describe the process of the collaborative effort in developing the tool, and describe the utility of the tool to countries.

Human Papillomavirus Vaccination amongst Students in a Tertiary Institution in North Central Nigeria: A Cross-sectional Study on Sociodemographic Factors Associated with Its Awareness, Uptake and Willingness to Pay.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine is effective in averting 70%-90% of all HPV-related diseases. The assessment of its awareness, uptake and willingness to pay (WTP) is important in Nigeria which is one of the developing countries where more than three-quarter of the global burden of HPV-related diseases occur. This study aimed to determine the sociodemographic factors associated with the awareness, uptake and WTP for HPV vaccine amongst undergraduates in a tertiary institution in North Central Nigeria. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study. Data were collected from randomly sampled respondents through a validated self-administered questionnaire. Descriptive statistics, Chi-square and logistic regression analyses were applied to data collected to determine the awareness, uptake and WTP for HPV vaccine and their association with sociodemographic factors. The results of inferential statistics were considered significant when P < 0.05. RESULTS: A total of 240 respondents were recruited, 15.4% of the respondents had heard about HPV vaccine, 2.1% of them had received at least a dose of the vaccine, 0.4% of them had completed three doses and 35.0% of them were willing to pay for it. Marital status (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 10.2; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.840-36.635) and parity (AOR: 5.8; 95% CI: 2.314-14.565) were predictors of WTP for the HPV vaccine. CONCLUSION: The evidence generated from this study suggests that there is a need to increase the awareness and uptake of the vaccine at the individual and population levels. The recent introduction of the HPV vaccine is a laudable step towards improving vaccine uptake. Public health authorities at the local, state and national levels should be empowered to develop tailored vaccine demand creation and advocacy strategies for HPV vaccine. Males should also be involved in the advocacy strategies and research on HPV vaccine.

The effectiveness of an m-Health intervention on the sexual and reproductive health of in-school adolescents: a cluster randomized controlled trial in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: The implementation of the country-wide comprehensive sexuality education (CSE) curriculum among in-school adolescents remains abysmally low and mHealth-based interventions are promising. We assessed the effect of a mHealth-based CSE on the sexual and reproductive health (SRH) knowledge, attitude and behaviour of in-school adolescents in Ilorin, northcentral Nigeria. METHODS: Using schools as clusters, 1280 in-school adolescents were randomised into intervention and control groups. Data was collected at baseline (T0), immediately after the intervention (T1) and 3 months afterwards (T2) on SRH knowledge, attitude and practice of risky sexual behaviour (RSB). Data analysis included test of associations using Chi-square, independent t-test and repeated measures ANOVA. Predictors were identified using binary logistic regression. RESULTS: In the intervention group, there was a statistically significant main effect on mean knowledge score (F = 2117.252, p = < 0.001) and mean attitude score (F = 148.493, p = < 0.001) from T0 to T2 compared to the control group which showed no statistically significant main effects in knowledge (p = 0.073), attitude (p = 0.142) and RSB (p = 0.142). Though the mean RSB score declined from T0 to T2, this effect was not statistically significant (F = 0.558, p = 0.572). Post-intervention, being female was a positive predictor of good SRH knowledge; being male was a positive predictor of RSB while being in a higher-class level was a negative predictor of RSB. CONCLUSION: The mHealth-based CSE was effective in improving SRH knowledge and attitude among in-school adolescents. This strategy should be strengthened to bridge the SRH knowledge and attitude gap among in-school adolescents. Trial registration Retrospectively registered on the Pan African Clinical Trial Registry (pactr.samrc.ac.za) on 19 October 2023. Identification number: PACTR202310485136014.

In Nigeria, the implementation of a nationwide sex education programme for adolescents going to schools is below expectation but using mobile health (mHealth) interventions could help. In this study, we looked at how a mHealth-based sex education programme affected the sexual and reproductive health (SRH) knowledge, attitude, and behaviour of in-school adolescents in Ilorin, Nigeria. We divided 1280 students into two groups, one received the mHealth-based intervention and the other did not receive it. We collected data before the intervention, right after it, and 3 months later to see any changes in SRH knowledge, attitudes, and risky sexual behaviours. We used various statistical tests to analyze the data and find patterns. The results showed that the group that received the mHealth intervention had significant improvements in their knowledge and attitudes about SRH from the start of the study to 3 months after the intervention. However, the control group, which didn't get the intervention, didn't show these improvements significantly. While the risky sexual behaviour score decreased slightly in the intervention group, this change was not significant. After the intervention, we found that being female was associated with better SRH knowledge, while being male was linked to more risky sexual behaviours. Also, being in a higher class level was associated with low risky behaviour. In conclusion, using mHealth for sex education helped improve the SRH knowledge and attitudes of students. This approach could be scaled to fill the gap in SRH knowledge and attitudes among adolescents in schools.

Influences of community engagement and health system strengthening for cholera control in cholera reporting countries.

The 2030 Global Task Force on Cholera Control Roadmap hinges on strengthening the implementation of multistranded cholera interventions, including community engagement and health system strengthening. However, a composite picture of specific facilitators and barriers for these interventions and any overlapping factors existing between the two, is lacking. Therefore, this study aims to address this shortcoming, focusing on cholera-reporting countries, which are disproportionately affected by cholera and may be cholera endemic. A scoping methodology was chosen to allow for iterative mapping, synthesis of the available research and to pinpoint research activity for global and local cholera policy-makers and shareholders. Using the Arksey and O'Malley framework for scoping reviews, we searched PubMed, Web of Science and CINAHL. Inclusion criteria included publication in English between 1990 and 2021 and cholera as the primary document focus in an epidemic or endemic setting. Data charting was completed through narrative descriptive and thematic analysis. Forty-four documents were included, with half relating to sub-Saharan African countries, 68% (30/44) to cholera endemic settings and 21% (9/44) to insecure settings. We identified four themes of facilitators and barriers to health systems strengthening: health system cooperation and agreement with external actors; maintaining functional capacity in the face of change; good governance, focused political will and sociopolitical influences on the cholera response and insecurity and targeted destruction. Community engagement had two themes: trust building in the health system and growing social cohesion. Insecurity and the community; cooperation and agreement; and sociopolitical influences on trust building were themes of factors acting at the interface between community engagement and health system. Given the decisive role of the community-health system interface for both sustained health system strengthening and community engagement, there is a need to advocate for conflict resolution, trust building and good governance for long-term cholera prevention and control in cholera reporting countries.

Strengthening pathogen genomic surveillance for health emergencies: insights from the World Health Organization's regional initiatives.

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a rapid scale-up in the use of genomic surveillance as a pandemic preparedness and response tool. As a result, the number of countries with in-country SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequencing capability increased by 40% from February 2021 to July 2022. The Global Genomic Surveillance Strategy for Pathogens with Pandemic and Epidemic Potential 2022-2032 was launched by the World Health Organization (WHO) in March 2022 to bring greater coherence to ongoing work to strengthen genomic surveillance. This paper describes how WHO's tailored regional approaches contribute to expanding and further institutionalizing the use of genomic surveillance to guide pandemic preparedness and response measures as part of a harmonized global undertaking. Challenges to achieving this vision include difficulties obtaining sequencing equipment and supplies, shortages of skilled staff, and obstacles to maximizing the utility of genomic data to inform risk assessment and public health action. WHO is helping to overcome these challenges in collaboration with partners. Through its global headquarters, six regional offices, and 153 country offices, WHO is providing support for country-driven efforts to strengthen genomic surveillance in its 194 Member States, with activities reflecting regional specificities. WHO's regional offices serve as platforms for those countries in their respective regions to share resources and knowledge, engage stakeholders in ways that reflect national and regional priorities, and develop regionally aligned approaches to implementing and sustaining genomic surveillance within public health systems.

Caregiving in a tertiary health institution in North Central Nigeria: Support types and financial burden.

Background: Caregivers play an important role in informal patient management. Identification of the support types and the financial challenges faced by caregivers will provide information on strategies to ease this burden. This study aimed to describe the support types and financial burden amongst caregivers in a tertiary hospital in North Central Nigeria. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study conducted amongst caregivers of inpatients in a tertiary hospital in North Central Nigeria. Data were collected using a pre-tested interviewer-administered questionnaire and were analysed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences package version 23. Results were reported in frequencies and proportions and presented in prose, tables and charts. Results: A total of 400 caregivers were recruited. The mean age was 38.32 ± 12.82 years and most (66.0%) were females. Caregivers supported their patients by running errands (96.3%) and 85.3% reported caregiving as stressful. The reported errands were purchase of medications (92.3%), supply of non-medical needs (63.3%), submission of laboratory samples and collection of results (52.3%) and service payment (47.5%). About two-thirds (63.2%) reported loss of income while caregiving and about half (50.8%) provided financial support to the patients. Conclusion: This study suggests that majority of caregivers experience significant physical and financial burden while caregiving. This burden can be eased off by the simplification of payment and laboratory processes and employment of more staff to support patients admitted to the wards. The financial burden experienced by caregivers reinforces the need to encourage more Nigerians to enrol in a health insurance scheme.

A scoping review of facilitators and barriers influencing the implementation of surveillance and oral cholera vaccine interventions for cholera control in lower- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Cholera still affects millions of people worldwide, especially in lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) has identified surveillance and oral cholera vaccines as two critical interventions to actualise the global roadmap goals-reduction of cholera-related deaths by 90% and decreasing the number of cholera endemic countries by half by 2030. Therefore, this study aimed to identify facilitators and barriers to implementing these two cholera interventions in LMIC settings. METHODS: A scoping review using the methods presented by Arksey and O'Malley. The search strategy involved using key search terms (cholera, surveillance, epidemiology and vaccines) in three databases (PubMed, CINAHL and Web of Science) and reviewing the first ten pages of Google searches. The eligibility criteria of being conducted in LMICs, a timeline of 2011-2021 and documents only in English were applied. Thematic analysis was performed, and the findings were presented according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension. RESULTS: Thirty-six documents met the predefined inclusion criteria, covering 2011 to 2021. There were two themes identified regarding the implementation of surveillance: timeliness and reporting (1); and resources and laboratory capabilities (2). As for oral cholera vaccines, there were four themes identified: information and awareness (1); community acceptance and trusted community leaders (2); planning and coordination (3); and resources and logistics (4). Additionally, adequate resources, good planning and coordination were identified to be operating at the interface between surveillance and oral cholera vaccines. CONCLUSION: Findings suggest that adequate and sustainable resources are crucial for timely and accurate cholera surveillance and that oral cholera vaccine implementation would benefit from increased community awareness and engagement of community leaders.

Risk communication during health emergencies in Nigeria: What are its challenges?

Although globalization has been advantageous in facilitating the free movement of people, goods, and services, the ease of movement of cross-border pathogens has increased the risk of international public health emergencies in recent years. Risk communication is an integral part of every country's response during public health emergencies such as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. To effectively increase adherence to guidelines during health emergencies, it is essential to understand the impact of social, cultural, political, and environmental factors on people's behaviours and lifestyles in any given context, as well as how these factors influence people's perception of risks. During the recent response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, the need to comprehend these influences was pronounced, and these influences ultimately shaped risk communication in Nigeria. We have identified risk communication challenges in Nigeria based on sociocultural diversity, the complexity of the health system, the impact of social media on communications, and other contextual factors surrounding multisectoral partnerships. To achieve global health security, these challenges must be addressed in resourceconstrained countries like Nigeria. In this paper, we emphasize the need to contextualize risk communication strategies in order to improve their effectiveness during health emergencies. In addition, we urge increased country commitment to a multi-hazard and multisectoral effort, deliberate investment in subnational risk communication systems, and investments in capacity building for risk communication activities.

SARS-CoV-2 variants-associated outbreaks of COVID-19 in a tertiary institution, North-Central Nigeria: Implications for epidemic control.

The COVID-19 global pandemic is being driven by evolving SARS-CoV-2 variants with consequential implications on virus transmissibility, host immunity, and disease severity. Continuous molecular and genomic surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 variants is therefore necessary for public health interventions toward the management of the pandemic. This study is a retrospective analysis of COVID-19 cases reported in a Nigerian tertiary institution from July to December 2021. In total, 705 suspected COVID-19 cases that comprised 547 students and 158 non-students were investigated by real time PCR (RT-PCR); of which 372 (~52.8%) tested positive for COVID-19. Using a set of selection criteria, 74 (~19.9%) COVID-19 positive samples were selected for next generation sequencing. Data showed that there were two outbreaks of COVID-19 within the university community over the study period, during which more females (56.8%) tested positive than males (47.8%) (p<0.05). Clinical data together with phylogenetic analysis suggested community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through mostly asymptomatic and/or pre-symptomatic individuals. Confirmed COVID-19 cases were mostly mild, however, SARS-CoV-2 delta (77%) and omicron (4.1%) variants were implicated as major drivers of respective waves of infections during the study period. This study highlights the importance of integrated surveillance of communicable disease during outbreaks.

Epidemiology, diagnostics and factors associated with mortality during a cholera epidemic in Nigeria, October 2020-October 2021: a retrospective analysis of national surveillance data.

OBJECTIVES: Nigeria reported an upsurge in cholera cases in October 2020, which then transitioned into a large, disseminated epidemic for most of 2021. This study aimed to describe the epidemiology, diagnostic performance of rapid diagnostic test (RDT) kits and the factors associated with mortality during the epidemic. DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of national surveillance data. SETTING: 33 of 37 states (including the Federal Capital Territory) in Nigeria. PARTICIPANTS: Persons who met cholera case definition (a person of any age with acute watery diarrhoea, with or without vomiting) between October 2020 and October 2021 within the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control surveillance data. OUTCOME MEASURES: Attack rate (AR; per 100 000 persons), case fatality rate (CFR; %) and accuracy of RDT performance compared with culture using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Additionally, individual factors associated with cholera deaths and hospitalisation were presented as adjusted OR with 95% CIs. RESULTS: Overall, 93 598 cholera cases and 3298 deaths (CFR: 3.5%) were reported across 33 of 37 states in Nigeria within the study period. The proportions of cholera cases were higher in men aged 5-14 years and women aged 25-44 years. The overall AR was 46.5 per 100 000 persons. The North-West region recorded the highest AR with 102 per 100 000. Older age, male gender, residency in the North-Central region and severe dehydration significantly increased the odds of cholera deaths. The cholera RDT had excellent diagnostic accuracy (AUROC=0.91; 95% CI 0.87 to 0.96). CONCLUSIONS: Cholera remains a serious public health threat in Nigeria with a high mortality rate. Thus, we recommend making RDT kits more widely accessible for improved surveillance and prompt case management across the country.

Public risk perception and behaviours towards COVID-19 during the first and second waves in Nigeria: a secondary data analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To describe changes in public risk perception and risky behaviours during the first wave (W1) and second wave (W2) of COVID-19 in Nigeria, associated factors and observed trend of the outbreak. DESIGN: A secondary data analysis of cross-sectional telephone-based surveys conducted during the W1 and W2 of COVID-19 in Nigeria. SETTING: Nigeria. PARTICIPANTS: Data from participants randomly selected from all states in Nigeria. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Risk perception for COVID-19 infection categorised as risk perceived and risk not perceived. SECONDARY OUTCOME: Compliance to public health and social measures (PHSMs) categorised as compliant; non-compliant and indifferent. ANALYSIS: Comparison of frequencies during both waves using χ2 statistic to test for associations. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses helped estimate the unadjusted and adjusted odds of risk perception of oneself contracting COVID-19. Level of statistical significance was set at p<0.05. RESULTS: Triangulated datasets had a total of 6401 respondents, majority (49.5%) aged 25-35 years. Overall, 55.4% and 56.1% perceived themselves to be at risk of COVID-19 infection during the W1 and W2, respectively. A higher proportion of males than females perceived themselves to be at risk during the W1 (60.3% vs 50.3%, p<0.001) and the W2 (58.3% vs 52.6%, p<0.05). Residing in the south-west was associated with not perceiving oneself at risk of COVID-19 infection (W1-AOdds Ratio (AOR) 0.28; 95% CI 0.20 to 0.40; W2-AOR 0.71; 95% CI 0.52 to 0.97). There was significant increase in non-compliance to PHSMs in the W2 compared with W1. Non-compliance rate was higher among individuals who perceived themselves not to be at risk of getting infected (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Risk communication and community engagement geared towards increasing risk perception of COVID-19 should be implemented, particularly among the identified population groups. This could increase adherence to PHSMs and potentially reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Nigeria.

Prevalence and determinants of stress of informal caregiving: A cross-sectional study among informal caregivers of hospitalised patients in a tertiary hospital in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Caring for patients in the hospital can cause a lot of stress for the caregivers, especially those who are involved with informal caregiving such as family members. Little is known in Nigeria on the stress of informal caregiving in the hospital environment. This study assessed the informal caregivers' stress level and their determinants in a tertiary hospital in Ilorin, Nigeria. METHODOLOGY: This was a hospital-based cross-sectional study. Between September and October 2019, using a simple random sampling method, data were collected from 400 informal caregivers of patients in University of Ilorin Teaching Hospital with interviewer-administered questionnaire which included socio-demographic characteristics, Caregivers Strain index (CSI) and caregivers' stress from institution and other factors index (CSIOI). Analysis was performed, and prevalence and determinants of stress of informal caregiving were presented using descriptive statistics and logistic regressions. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: The majority, 381 (95.2%) of the informal caregivers, reported great stress levels using CSI, while 227 (56.7%) experienced a great level of stress with the CSIOI. Predictors of caregiver stress were perception that staying around was stressful (odds ratio [OR] - 17.5, P < 0.001), felt their patients will not be well cared for if not around (OR - 6.1, P < 0.001), staying at the hospital for >30 days (OR - 2.6, P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: The informal caregivers experienced a great level of stress taking care of their patients on admission in the hospital. It is, therefore, expedient that issues surrounding the comfort of the informal caregivers as they care for their patients should be included in hospital policies.

COVID-19 mortality rate and its associated factors during the first and second waves in Nigeria.

COVID-19 mortality rate has not been formally assessed in Nigeria. Thus, we aimed to address this gap and identify associated mortality risk factors during the first and second waves in Nigeria. This was a retrospective analysis of national surveillance data from all 37 States in Nigeria between February 27, 2020, and April 3, 2021. The outcome variable was mortality amongst persons who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by Reverse-Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction. Incidence rates of COVID-19 mortality was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by total person-time (in days) contributed by the entire study population and presented per 100,000 person-days with 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI). Adjusted negative binomial regression was used to identify factors associated with COVID-19 mortality. Findings are presented as adjusted Incidence Rate Ratios (aIRR) with 95% CI. The first wave included 65,790 COVID-19 patients, of whom 994 (1∙51%) died; the second wave included 91,089 patients, of whom 513 (0∙56%) died. The incidence rate of COVID-19 mortality was higher in the first wave [54∙25 (95% CI: 50∙98-57∙73)] than in the second wave [19∙19 (17∙60-20∙93)]. Factors independently associated with increased risk of COVID-19 mortality in both waves were: age ≥45 years, male gender [first wave aIRR 1∙65 (1∙35-2∙02) and second wave 1∙52 (1∙11-2∙06)], being symptomatic [aIRR 3∙17 (2∙59-3∙89) and 3∙04 (2∙20-4∙21)], and being hospitalised [aIRR 4∙19 (3∙26-5∙39) and 7∙84 (4∙90-12∙54)]. Relative to South-West, residency in the South-South and North-West was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 mortality in both waves. In conclusion, the rate of COVID-19 mortality in Nigeria was higher in the first wave than in the second wave, suggesting an improvement in public health response and clinical care in the second wave. However, this needs to be interpreted with caution given the inherent limitations of the country's surveillance system during the study.

Epidemiological comparison of the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, February 2020-April 2021.

BACKGROUND: With reports of surges in COVID-19 case numbers across over 50 countries, country-level epidemiological analysis is required to inform context-appropriate response strategies for containment and mitigation of the outbreak. We aimed to compare the epidemiological features of the first and second waves of COVID-19 in Nigeria. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of the Surveillance Outbreak Response Management and Analysis System data of the first and second epidemiological waves, which were between 27 February and 24 October 2020, and 25 October 2020 to 3 April 2021, respectively. Descriptive statistical measures including frequencies and percentages, test positivity rate (TPR), cumulative incidence (CI) and case fatality rates (CFRs) were compared. A p value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. All statistical analyses were carried out in STATA V.13. RESULTS: There were 802 143 tests recorded during the study period (362 550 and 439 593 in the first and second waves, respectively). Of these, 66 121 (18.2%) and 91 644 (20.8%) tested positive in the first and second waves, respectively. There was a 21.3% increase in the number of tests conducted in the second wave with TPR increasing by 14.3%. CI during the first and second waves were 30.3/100 000 and 42.0/100 000 respectively. During the second wave, confirmed COVID-19 cases increased among females and people 30 years old or younger and decreased among urban residents and individuals with travel history within 14 days of sample collection (p value <0.001). Most confirmed cases were asymptomatic at diagnosis during both waves: 74.9% in the first wave; 79.7% in the second wave. CFR decreased during the second wave (0.7%) compared with the first wave (1.8%). CONCLUSION: Nigeria experienced a larger but less severe second wave of COVID-19. Continued implementation of public health and social measures is needed to mitigate the resurgence of another wave.

Building local capacity for emergency coordination: establishment of subnational Public Health Emergency Operations Centres in Nigeria.

Public Health Emergency Operations Centres (PHEOCs) provide a platform for multisectoral coordination and collaboration, to enhance the efficiency of outbreak response activities and enable the control of disease outbreaks. Over the last decade, PHEOCs have been introduced to address the gaps in outbreak response coordination. With its tropical climate, high population density and poor socioeconomic indicators, Nigeria experiences large outbreaks of infectious diseases annually. These outbreaks have led to mortality and negative economic impact as a result of large disparities in healthcare and poor coordination systems. Nigeria is a federal republic with a presidential system of government and a separation of powers among the three tiers of government which are the federal, state and local governments. There are 36 states in Nigeria, and as with other countries with a federal system of governance, each state in Nigeria has its budgets, priorities and constitutional authority for health sector interventions including the response to disease outbreaks. Following the establishment of a National PHEOC in 2017 to improve the coordination of public health emergencies, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control began the establishment of State PHEOCs. Using a defined process, the establishment of State PHEOCs has led to improved coordination, coherence of thoughts among public health officials, government ownership, commitment and collaboration. This paper aims to share the experience and importance of establishing PHEOCs at national and subnational levels in Nigeria and the lessons learnt which can be used by other countries considering the use of PHEOCs in managing complex emergencies.

Assessing the capacity of symptom scores to predict COVID-19 positivity in Nigeria: a national derivation and validation cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop and validate a symptom prediction tool for COVID-19 test positivity in Nigeria. DESIGN: Predictive modelling study. SETTING: All Nigeria States and the Federal Capital Territory. PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of 43 221 individuals within the national COVID-19 surveillance dataset from 27 February to 27 August 2020. Complete dataset was randomly split into two equal halves: derivation and validation datasets. Using the derivation dataset (n=21 477), backward multivariable logistic regression approach was used to identify symptoms positively associated with COVID-19 positivity (by real-time PCR) in children (≤17 years), adults (18-64 years) and elderly (≥65 years) patients separately. OUTCOME MEASURES: Weighted statistical and clinical scores based on beta regression coefficients and clinicians' judgements, respectively. Using the validation dataset (n=21 744), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values were used to assess the predictive capacity of individual symptoms, unweighted score and the two weighted scores. RESULTS: Overall, 27.6% of children (4415/15 988), 34.6% of adults (9154/26 441) and 40.0% of elderly (317/792) that had been tested were positive for COVID-19. Best individual symptom predictor of COVID-19 positivity was loss of smell in children (AUROC 0.56, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.56), either fever or cough in adults (AUROC 0.57, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.58) and difficulty in breathing in the elderly (AUROC 0.53, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.58) patients. In children, adults and the elderly patients, all scoring approaches showed similar predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive capacity of various symptom scores for COVID-19 positivity was poor overall. However, the findings could serve as an advocacy tool for more investments in resources for capacity strengthening of molecular testing for COVID-19 in Nigeria.

Lassa Fever: An Evolving Emergency in West Africa.

Lassa fever remains endemic in parts of West Africa and continues to pose as a quiescent threat globally. We described the background on Lassa fever, factors contributing to its emergence and spread, preventive measures, and potential solutions. This review provides a holistic and comprehensive source for academicians, clinicians, researchers, policymakers, infectious disease epidemiologists, virologists, and other stakeholders.