HIV risk behaviour, viraemia, and transmission across HIV cascade stages including low-level viremia: Analysis of 14 cross-sectional population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in sub-Saharan Africa.

As antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage for people living with HIV (PLHIV) increases, HIV programmes require up-to-date information about evolving HIV risk behaviour and transmission risk, including those with low-level viremia (LLV; >50 to ≤1000 copies/mL), to guide prevention priorities. We aimed to assess differences in sexual risk behaviours, distribution of viral load (VL) and proportion of transmission across PLHIV subgroups. We analysed data from Population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in 14 sub-Saharan African countries during 2015-2019. We estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) of self-reported HIV high-risk behaviour (multiple partners and condomless sex) across cascade stages via generalised estimation equations. We modelled the proportions of transmission from each subgroup using relative self-reported sexual risk, a Hill function for transmission rate by VL, and proportions within cascade stages from surveys and UNAIDS country estimates for 2010-2020. Compared to PLHIV with undetectable VL (≤50 copies/mL), undiagnosed PLHIV (aPR women: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.08-1.52]; men: 1.61 [1.33-1.95]) and men diagnosed but untreated (2.06 [1.52-2.78]) were more likely to self-report high-risk sex. High-risk behaviour was not significantly associated with LLV. Mean VL was similar among undiagnosed, diagnosed but untreated, and on ART but non-suppressed sub-groups. Across surveys, undiagnosed and diagnosed but untreated contributed most to transmission (40-91% and 1-41%, respectively), with less than 1% from those with LLV. Between 2010 and 2020, the proportion of transmission from individuals on ART but non-suppressed increased. In settings with high ART coverage, effective HIV testing, ART linkage, and retention remain priorities to reduce HIV transmission. Persons with LLV are an increasing share of PLHIV but their contribution to HIV transmission was small. Improving suppression among PLHIV on ART with VL ≥1000 copies/mL will become increasingly important.

Schistosomiasis Seroprevalence among Children Aged 0-14 Years in Nigeria, 2018.

The first nationally representative, population-based study of schistosomiasis seroprevalence in Nigeria was conducted using blood samples and risk-factor data collected during the 2018 Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS). Schistosomiasis seroprevalence was estimated by analyzing samples for reactivity to schistosome soluble egg antigen (SEA) in a multiplex bead assay; NAIIS survey data were assessed to identify potential risk factors for seropositivity. The SEA antibody data were available for 31,459 children aged 0 to 14 years. Overall seroprevalence was 17.2% (95% CI: 16.3-18.1%). Seropositive children were identified in every age group, including children < 5 years, and seroprevalence increased with increasing age (P < 0.0001). Several factors were associated with increased odds of seropositivity, including being a boy (odds ratio [OR] = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.24-1.45), living in a rural area (OR = 2.2, 95% CI: 1.9-2.5), and animal ownership (OR = 1.67, 95% CI: 1.52-1.85). Access to improved sanitation and drinking water sources were associated with decreased odds of seropositivity (OR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.47-0.58 and OR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.47-0.60, respectively) regardless of whether the child lived in a rural (sanitation: adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.7, 95% CI: 0.6-0.8; drinking water: aOR = 0.7, 95% CI: 0.6-0.8) or urban area (sanitation: aOR = 0.6, 95% CI: 0.5-0.7; drinking water: aOR = 0.5, 95% CI: 0.4-0.6), highlighting the importance of these factors for schistosomiasis prevention and control. These results identified additional risk populations (children < 5 years) and a new risk factor (animal ownership) and could be used to monitor the impact of control programs.

From Paper Files to Web-Based Application for Data-Driven Monitoring of HIV Programs: Nigeria's Journey to a National Data Repository for Decision-Making and Patient Care.

BACKGROUND: Timely and reliable data are crucial for clinical, epidemiologic, and program management decision making. Electronic health information systems provide platforms for managing large longitudinal patient records. Nigeria implemented the National Data Repository (NDR) to create a central data warehouse of all people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) while providing useful functionalities to aid decision making at different levels of program implementation. OBJECTIVE: We describe the Nigeria NDR and its development process, including its use for surveillance, research, and national HIV program monitoring toward achieving HIV epidemic control. METHODS: Stakeholder engagement meetings were held in 2013 to gather information on data elements and vocabulary standards for reporting patient-level information, technical infrastructure, human capacity requirements, and information flow. Findings from these meetings guided the development of the NDR. An implementation guide provided common terminologies and data reporting structures for data exchange between the NDR and the electronic medical record (EMR) systems. Data from the EMR were encoded in extensible markup language and sent to the NDR over secure hypertext transfer protocol after going through a series of validation processes. RESULTS: By June 30, 2021, the NDR had up-to-date records of 1,477,064 (94.4%) patients receiving HIV treatment across 1,985 health facilities, of which 1,266,512 (85.7%) patient records had fingerprint template data to support unique patient identification and record linkage to prevent registration of the same patient under different identities. Data from the NDR was used to support HIV program monitoring, case-based surveillance and production of products like the monthly lists of patients who have treatment interruptions and dashboards for monitoring HIV test and start. CONCLUSION: The NDR enabled the availability of reliable and timely data for surveillance, research, and HIV program monitoring to guide program improvements to accelerate progress toward epidemic control.

Treponemal Antibody Seroprevalence Using a Multiplex Bead Assay from Samples Collected during the 2018 Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey: Searching for Yaws in Nigeria.

Yaws is a chronic, relapsing disease of skin, bone, and cartilage caused by Treponema pallidum subsp. pertenue. Yaws was last reported in Nigeria in 1996, although neighboring countries have recently reported cases. We investigated serological evidence for yaws among children aged 0-14 years in Nigeria by measuring antibodies to the treponemal antigens rp17 and TmpA in blood specimens from a 2018 nationally representative HIV survey using a multiplex bead assay. The presence of antibodies to both antigens ("double positive") likely reflects current or recent treponemal infection. Overall, 1.9% (610/31,549) of children had anti-TmpA antibodies, 1.5% (476/31,549) had anti-rp17 antibodies, and 0.1% (39/31,549) were double positive. Among households, 0.5% (84/18,021) had a double-positive child, with a clustering of double-positive children. Although numbers are low, identification of antibodies to both TmpA and rp17 may warrant investigation, including more granular epidemiologic and clinical data, to assess the potential for continuing yaws transmission in Nigerian children.

Evaluation of accuracy and performance of self-reported HIV and antiretroviral therapy status in the Nigeria AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (2018).

BACKGROUND: Data on awareness of HIV status among people living with HIV (PLHIV) are critical to estimating progress toward epidemic control. To ascertain the accuracy of self-reported HIV status and antiretroviral drug (ARV) use in the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS), we compared self-reported HIV status with HIV rapid diagnostic test (RDT) results and self-reported ARV use with detectable blood ARV levels. METHODS: On the basis of responses and test results, participants were categorized by HIV status and ARV use. Self-reported HIV status and ARV use performance characteristics were determined by estimating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV). Proportions and other analyses were weighted to account for complex survey design. RESULTS: During NAIIS, 186,405 participants consented for interview out of which 58,646 reported knowing their HIV status. Of the 959 (weighted, 1.5%) who self-reported being HIV-positive, 849 (92.1%) tested HIV positive and 64 (7.9%) tested HIV negative via RDT and polymerase chain reaction test for discordant positive results. Of the 849 who tested HIV positive, 743 (89.8%) reported using ARV and 72 (10.2%) reported not using ARV. Of 57,687 who self-reported being HIV negative, 686 (1.2%) tested HIV positive via RDT, with ARV biomarkers detected among 195 (25.1%). ARV was detected among 94.5% of those who self-reported using ARV and among 42.0% of those who self-reported not using ARV. Overall, self-reported HIV status had sensitivity of 52.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 49.4%-56.0%) with specificity of 99.9% (95% CI: 99.8%-99.9%). Self-reported ARV use had sensitivity of 95.2% (95% CI: 93.6%-96.7%) and specificity of 54.5% (95% CI: 48.8%-70.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported HIV status and ARV use screening tests were found to be low-validity measures during NAIIS. Laboratory tests to confirm self-reported information may be necessary to determine accurate HIV and clinical status for HIV studies in Nigeria.

Mapping HIV prevalence in Nigeria using small area estimates to develop a targeted HIV intervention strategy.

OBJECTIVE: Although geographically specific data can help target HIV prevention and treatment strategies, Nigeria relies on national- and state-level estimates for policymaking and intervention planning. We calculated sub-state estimates along the HIV continuum of care in Nigeria. DESIGN: Using data from the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) (July-December 2018), we conducted a geospatial analysis estimating three key programmatic indicators: prevalence of HIV infection among adults (aged 15-64 years); antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage among adults living with HIV; and viral load suppression (VLS) rate among adults living with HIV. METHODS: We used an ensemble modeling method called stacked generalization to analyze available covariates and a geostatistical model to incorporate the output from stacking as well as spatial autocorrelation in the modeled outcomes. Separate models were fitted for each indicator. Finally, we produced raster estimates of each indicator on an approximately 5×5-km grid and estimates at the sub-state/local government area (LGA) and state level. RESULTS: Estimates for all three indicators varied both within and between states. While state-level HIV prevalence ranged from 0.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.3%-0.5%]) to 4.3% (95% UI: 3.7%-4.9%), LGA prevalence ranged from 0.2% (95% UI: 0.1%-0.5%) to 8.5% (95% UI: 5.8%-12.2%). Although the range in ART coverage did not substantially differ at state level (25.6%-76.9%) and LGA level (21.9%-81.9%), the mean absolute difference in ART coverage between LGAs within states was 16.7 percentage points (range, 3.5-38.5 percentage points). States with large differences in ART coverage between LGAs also showed large differences in VLS-regardless of level of effective treatment coverage-indicating that state-level geographic targeting may be insufficient to address coverage gaps. CONCLUSION: Geospatial analysis across the HIV continuum of care can effectively highlight sub-state variation and identify areas that require further attention in order to achieve epidemic control. By generating local estimates, governments, donors, and other implementing partners will be better positioned to conduct targeted interventions and prioritize resource distribution.

Effectiveness of three delivery models for promoting access to pre-exposure prophylaxis in HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in Nigeria.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effectiveness of three models for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) service delivery to HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in Nigeria. METHODS: 297 heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples were recruited into three PrEP delivery models and followed up for 18 months. The models were i) Outpatient clinic model providing PreP in routine outpatient care; ii) Antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinic model providing PrEP in ART clinics; and iii) Decentralized care model providing PrEP through primary and secondary care centres linked to a tertiary care centre. The primary effectiveness endpoint was incident HIV-1 infection. The HIV incidence before and after the study was compared and the incidence rate ratio computed for each model. Survival analysis was conducted, Cox regression analysis was used to compare the factors that influenced couple retention in each of the models. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to estimate the median retention time (in months) of the study participants in each of the study models, and log-rank test for equality of survival functions was conducted to test for significant differences among the three models. RESULTS: There was no significant difference (p>0.05) in the couple retention rates among the three models. At months 3, 6 and 9, adherence of the HIV-1-infected partners to ART was highest in the decentralized model, whereas at months 9 and 12, the outpatient model had the highest proportion of HIV-1- uninfected partners adhering to PrEP (p<0.001). The HIV incidence per 100 person-years was zero in the general outpatient clinic and ART clinic models and 1.6 (95% CI: 0.04-9.1) in the decentralized clinic model. The difference in the observed and expected incidence rate was 4.3 (95% CI: 0.44-39.57) for the decentralized clinic model. CONCLUSION: Although incidence of HIV seroconversion was highest in the decentralized clinic model, this difference may be due to the higher sexual risk behavior among study participants in the decentralized model rather than the type of service delivery. The study findings imply that any of the models can effectively deliver PrEP services.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in four states of Nigeria in October 2020: A population-based household survey.

The observed epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in sub-Saharan Africa has varied greatly from that in Europe and the United States, with much lower reported incidence. Population-based studies are needed to estimate true cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 to inform public health interventions. This study estimated SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in four selected states in Nigeria in October 2020. We implemented a two-stage cluster sample household survey in four Nigerian states (Enugu, Gombe, Lagos, and Nasarawa) to estimate age-stratified prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. All individuals in sampled households were eligible for interview, blood draw, and nasal/oropharyngeal swab collection. We additionally tested participants for current/recent malaria infection. Seroprevalence estimates were calculated accounting for the complex survey design. Across all four states, 10,629 (96·5%) of 11,015 interviewed individuals provided blood samples. The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was 25·2% (95% CI 21·8-28·6) in Enugu State, 9·3% (95% CI 7·0-11·5) in Gombe State, 23·3% (95% CI 20·5-26·4) in Lagos State, and 18·0% (95% CI 14·4-21·6) in Nasarawa State. Prevalence of current/recent malaria infection ranged from 2·8% in Lagos to 45·8% in Gombe and was not significantly related to SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence. The prevalence of active SARS-CoV-2 infection in the four states during the survey period was 0·2% (95% CI 0·1-0·4). Approximately eight months after the first reported COVID-19 case in Nigeria, seroprevalence indicated infection levels 194 times higher than the 24,198 officially reported COVID-19 cases across the four states; however, most of the population remained susceptible to COVID-19 in October 2020.

Evaluation of the Nigeria national HIV rapid testing algorithm.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) diagnosis remains the gateway to HIV care and treatment. However, due to changes in HIV prevalence and testing coverage across different geopolitical zones, it is crucial to evaluate the national HIV testing algorithm as false positivity due to low prevalence could be detrimental to both the client and the service delivery. Therefore, we evaluated the performance of the national HIV rapid testing algorithm using specimens collected from multiple HIV testing services (HTS) sites and compared the results from different HIV prevalence levels across the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. The evaluation employed a dual approach, retrospective, and prospective. The retrospective evaluation focused on a desktop review of program data (n = 492,880) collated from patients attending routine HTS from six geopolitical zones of Nigeria between January 2017 and December 2019. The prospective component utilized samples (n = 2,895) collected from the field at the HTS and tested using the current national serial HIV rapid testing algorithm. These samples were transported to the National Reference Laboratory (NRL), Abuja, and were re-tested using the national HIV rapid testing algorithm and HIV-1/2 supplementary assays (Geenius to confirm positives and resolve discordance and multiplex assay). The retrospective component of the study revealed that the overall proportion of HIV positives, based on the selected areas, was 5.7% (28,319/492,880) within the study period, and the discordant rate between tests 1 and 2 was 1.1%. The prospective component of the study indicated no significant differences between the test performed at the field using the national HIV rapid testing algorithm and the re-testing performed at the NRL. The comparison between the test performed at the field using the national HIV rapid testing algorithm and Geenius HIV-1/2 supplementary assay showed an agreement rate of 95.2%, while that of the NRL was 99.3%. In addition, the comparison of the field results with HIV multiplex assay indicated a sensitivity of 96.6%, the specificity of 98.2%, PPV of 97.0%, and Kappa Statistic of 0.95, and that of the NRL with HIV multiplex assay was 99.2%, 99.4%, 99.0%, and 0.99, respectively. Results show that the Nigeria national serial HIV rapid testing algorithm performed very well across the target settings. However, the algorithm's performance in the field was lower than the performance outcomes under a controlled environment in the NRL. There is a need to target testers in the field for routine continuous quality improvement implementation, including refresher trainings as necessary.

Expanding access to HIV services during the COVID-19 pandemic-Nigeria, 2020.

BACKGROUND: To accelerate progress toward the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Nigeria country office (CDC Nigeria) initiated an Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) Surge in 2019 to identify and link 340,000 people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) to ART. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) threatened to interrupt ART Surge progress following the detection of the first case in Nigeria in February 2020. To overcome this disruption, CDC Nigeria designed and implemented adapted ART Surge strategies during February-September 2020. METHODS: Adapted ART Surge strategies focused on continuing expansion of HIV services while mitigating COVID-19 transmission. Key strategies included an intensified focus on community-based, rather than facility-based, HIV case-finding; immediate initiation of newly-diagnosed PLHIV on 3-month ART starter packs (first ART dispense of 3 months of ART); expansion of ART distribution through community refill sites; and broadened access to multi-month dispensing (MMD) (3-6 months ART) among PLHIV established in care. State-level weekly data reporting through an Excel-based dashboard and individual PLHIV-level data from the Nigeria National Data Repository facilitated program monitoring. RESULTS: During February-September 2020, the reported number of PLHIV initiating ART per month increased from 11,407 to 25,560, with the proportion found in the community increasing from 59 to 75%. The percentage of newly-identified PLHIV initiating ART with a 3-month ART starter pack increased from 60 to 98%. The percentage of on-time ART refill pick-ups increased from 89 to 100%. The percentage of PLHIV established in care receiving at least 3-month MMD increased from 77 to 93%. Among PLHIV initiating ART, 6-month retention increased from 74 to 92%. CONCLUSIONS: A rapid and flexible HIV program response, focused on reducing facility-based interactions while ensuring delivery of lifesaving ART, was critical in overcoming COVID-19-related service disruptions to expand access to HIV services in Nigeria during the first eight months of the pandemic. High retention on ART among PLHIV initiating treatment indicates immediate MMD in this population may be a sustainable practice. HIV program infrastructure can be leveraged and adapted to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Optimizing community linkage to care and antiretroviral therapy Initiation: Lessons from the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) and their adaptation in Nigeria ART Surge.

BACKGROUND: Ineffective linkage to care (LTC) is a known challenge for community HIV testing. To overcome this challenge, a robust linkage to care strategy was adopted by the 2018 Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS). The NAIIS linkage to care strategy was further adapted to improve Nigeria's programmatic efforts to achieve the 1st 90 as part of the Nigeria Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) Surge initiative, which also included targeted community testing. In this paper we provide an overview of the NAIIS LTC strategy and describe the impact of this strategy on both the NAIIS and the Surge initiatives. METHODS: The NAIIS collaborated with community-based organizations (CBOs) and deployed mobile health (mHealth) technology with real-time dashboards to manage and optimize community LTC for people living with HIV (PLHIV) diagnosed during the survey. In NAIIS, CBOs' role was to facilitate linkage of identified PLHIV in community to facility of their choice. For the ART Surge, we modified the NAIIS LTC strategy by empowering both CBOs and mobile community teams as responsible for not only active LTC but also for community testing, ART initiation, and retention in care. RESULTS: Of the 2,739 PLHIV 15 years and above identified in NAIIS, 1,975 (72.1%) were either unaware of their HIV-positive status (N = 1890) or were aware of their HIV-positive status but not receiving treatment (N = 85). Of these, 1,342 (67.9%) were linked to care, of which 952 (70.9%) were initiated on ART. Among 1,890 newly diagnosed PLHIV, 1,278 (67.6%) were linked to care, 33.7% self-linked and 66.3% were linked by CBOs. Among 85 known PLHIV not on treatment, 64 (75.3%) were linked; 32.8% self-linked and 67.2% were linked by a CBO. In the ART Surge, LTC and treatment initiation rates were 98% and 100%, respectively. Three-month retention for monthly treatment initiation cohorts improved from 76% to 90% over 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: Active LTC strategies by local CBOs and mobile community teams improved LTC and ART initiation in the ART Surge initiative. The use of mHealth technology resulted in timely and accurate documentation of results in NAIIS. By deploying mHealth in addition to active LTC, CBOs and mobile community teams could effectively scale up ART with real-time documentation of client-level outcomes.

Rapid Scale-up of an Antiretroviral Therapy Program Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic - Nine States, Nigeria, March 31, 2019-September 30, 2020.

In 2018, an estimated 1.8 million persons living in Nigeria had HIV infection (1.3% of the total population), including 1.1 million (64%) who were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) (1). Effective ART reduces morbidity and mortality rates among persons with HIV infection and prevents HIV transmission once viral load is suppressed to undetectable levels (2,3). In April 2019, through the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR),* CDC launched an 18-month ART Surge program in nine Nigerian states to rapidly increase the number of persons with HIV infection receiving ART. CDC analyzed programmatic data gathered during March 31, 2019-September 30, 2020, to describe the ART Surge program's progress on case finding, ART initiation, patient retention, and ART Surge program growth. Overall, the weekly number of newly identified persons with HIV infection who initiated ART increased approximately eightfold, from 587 (week ending May 4, 2019) to 5,329 (week ending September 26, 2020). The ART Surge program resulted in 208,202 more HIV-infected persons receiving PEPFAR-supported ART despite the COVID-19 pandemic (97,387 more persons during March 31, 2019-March 31, 2020 and an additional 110,815 persons during April 2020-September 2020). Comprehensive, data-guided, locally adapted interventions and the use of incident command structures can help increase the number of persons with HIV infection who receive ART, reducing HIV-related morbidity and mortality as well as decreasing HIV transmission.