Genomic Epidemiology and Lineage Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Bulgaria: Insights from a Three-Year Pandemic Analysis.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has brought about significant challenges worldwide. In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of the genomic epidemiology and lineage dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Bulgaria over a three-year period. Through extensive genomic sequencing and data analysis, we investigated the evolution of the virus, the emergence of variants of concern (VOCs), and their impact on the country's pandemic trajectory. We also assessed the relationship between viral diversity and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in Bulgaria. Our findings shed light on the temporal and spatial distribution of SARS-CoV-2 lineages and provide crucial insights into the dynamics of the pandemic in the country. The interplay between international travel and viral transmission plays a significant role in the emergence and dissemination of different SARS-CoV-2 variants. The observed proportions of exportation to various continents provide insights into the potential pathways through which these lineages spread globally. Understanding the genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Bulgaria is essential for formulating targeted public health strategies, enhancing vaccination efforts, and effectively managing future outbreaks.

Early Detection of the Recombinant SARS-CoV-2 XAN Variant in Bulgaria: Initial Genomic Insights into Yet Another Piece of the Growing Puzzle of Recombinant Clades.

The first recombinant SARS-CoV-2 variants were identified in 2022, causing public health concerns. The importance of recombinant variants has increased especially since the WHO designated the recombinant variant XBB and its lineages as subvariants that require monitoring on 20 November 2022. In this study, we provide the first insights into the new SARS-CoV-2 variant named XAN, a recombinant composed of Omicron sub-lineages BA.2 and BA.5. To our knowledge, this is the first report on the recombinant SARS-CoV-2 XAN variant identified in Bulgaria.

Transmitted HIV Drug Resistance in Bulgaria Occurs in Clusters of Individuals from Different Transmission Groups and Various Subtypes (2012-2020).

Transmitted HIV drug resistance in Bulgaria was first reported in 2015 using data from 1988-2011. We determined the prevalence of surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs) and HIV-1 genetic diversity in Bulgaria during 2012-2020 using polymerase sequences from 1053 of 2010 (52.4%) antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive individuals. Sequences were analyzed for DRM using the WHO HIV SDRM list implemented in the calculated population resistance tool at Stanford University. Genetic diversity was inferred using automated subtyping tools and phylogenetics. Cluster detection and characterization was performed using MicrobeTrace. The overall rate of SDRMs was 5.7% (60/1053), with 2.2% having resistance to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), 1.8% to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), 2.1% to protease inhibitors (PIs), and 0.4% with dual-class SDRMs. We found high HIV-1 diversity, with the majority being subtype B (60.4%), followed by F1 (6.9%), CRF02_AG (5.2%), A1 (3.7%), CRF12_BF (0.8%), and other subtypes and recombinant forms (23%). Most (34/60, 56.7%) of the SDRMs were present in transmission clusters of different subtypes composed mostly of male-to-male sexual contact (MMSC), including a 14-member cluster of subtype B sequences from 12 MMSC and two males reporting heterosexual contact; 13 had the L90M PI mutation and one had the T215S NRTI SDRM. We found a low SDRM prevalence amid high HIV-1 diversity among ART-naive patients in Bulgaria during 2012-2020. The majority of SDRMs were found in transmission clusters containing MMSC, indicative of onward spread of SDRM in drug-naive individuals. Our study provides valuable information on the transmission dynamics of HIV drug resistance in the context of high genetic diversity in Bulgaria, for the development of enhanced prevention strategies to end the epidemic.

PrEP Scale-Up and PEP in Central and Eastern Europe: Changes in Time and the Challenges We Face with No Expected HIV Vaccine in the near Future.

With no expected vaccine for HIV in the near future, we aimed to define the current situation and challenges for pre- and post-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP and PEP) in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The Euroguidelines CEE Network Group members were invited to respond to a 27-item survey including questions on PrEP (response rate 91.6%). PrEP was licensed in 68.2%; 95 centers offered PrEP and the estimated number on PrEP was around 9000. It was available in daily (40.1%), on-demand (13.3%), or both forms (33.3%). The access rate was <1−80%. Three major barriers for access were lack of knowledge/awareness among people who are in need (59.1%), not being reimbursed (50.0%), and low perception of HIV risk (45.5%). Non-occupational PEP was available in 86.4% and was recommended in the guidelines in 54.5%. It was fully reimbursed in 36.4%, only for accidental exposures in 40.9%, and was not reimbursed in 22.72%. Occupational PEP was available in 95.5% and was reimbursed fully. Although PrEP scale-up in the region has gained momentum, a huge gap exists between those who are in need of and those who can access PrEP. Prompt action is required to address the urgent need for PrEP scale-up in the CEE region.

HIV-1 subtype B spread through cross-border clusters in the Balkans: a molecular analysis in view of incidence trends.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze phylogenetic relations and assess the role of cross-border clusters in the spread of HIV-1 subtype B across the Balkans, given the general trends of new HIV diagnoses in seven Balkan countries. DESIGN: Retrospective phylogenetic and trend analysis. METHODS: In-depth phylogenetic, phylodynamic and phylogeographic analysis performed on 2415 HIV-1 subtype B sequences from 1999 to 2019 using maximal likelihood and Bayesian methods. The joinpoint regression analysis of new HIV diagnoses by country and modes of transmission using 2004-2019 ECDC data. RESULTS: Ninety-three HIV-1 Subtype B transmission clusters (68% of studied sequences) were detected of which four cross-border clusters (11% of studied sequences). Phylodynamic analysis showed activity of cross-border clusters up until the mid-2000s, with a subsequent stationary growth phase. Phylogeography analyses revealed reciprocal spread patterns between Serbia, Slovenia and Montenegro and several introductions to Romania from these countries and Croatia. The joinpoint analysis revealed a reduction in new HIV diagnoses in Romania, Greece and Slovenia, whereas an increase in Serbia, Bulgaria, Croatia and Montenegro, predominantly among MSM. CONCLUSION: Differing trends of new HIV diagnoses in the Balkans mirror differences in preventive policies implemented in participating countries. Regional spread of HIV within the countries of former Yugoslavia has continued to play an important role even after country break-up, whereas the spread of subtype B through multiple introductions to Romania suggested the changing pattern of travel and migration linked to European integration of Balkan countries in the early 2000s.

Global disparities in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance.

Genomic sequencing is essential to track the evolution and spread of SARS-CoV-2, optimize molecular tests, treatments, vaccines, and guide public health responses. To investigate the global SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance, we used sequences shared via GISAID to estimate the impact of sequencing intensity and turnaround times on variant detection in 189 countries. In the first two years of the pandemic, 78% of high-income countries sequenced >0.5% of their COVID-19 cases, while 42% of low- and middle-income countries reached that mark. Around 25% of the genomes from high income countries were submitted within 21 days, a pattern observed in 5% of the genomes from low- and middle-income countries. We found that sequencing around 0.5% of the cases, with a turnaround time <21 days, could provide a benchmark for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance. Socioeconomic inequalities undermine the global pandemic preparedness, and efforts must be made to support low- and middle-income countries improve their local sequencing capacity.

SARS-CoV-2 reinfections during the first three major COVID-19 waves in Bulgaria.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating impact on the world over the past two years (2020-2021). One of the key questions about its future trajectory is the protection from subsequent infections and disease conferred by a previous infection, as the SARS-CoV-2 virus belongs to the coronaviruses, a group of viruses the members of which are known for their ability to reinfect convalescent individuals. Bulgaria, with high rates of previous infections combined with low vaccination rates and an elderly population, presents a somewhat unique context to study this question. METHODS: We use detailed governmental data on registered COVID-19 cases to evaluate the incidence and outcomes of COVID-19 reinfections in Bulgaria in the period between March 2020 and early December 2021. RESULTS: For the period analyzed, a total of 4,106 cases of individuals infected more than once were observed, including 31 cases of three infections and one of four infections. The number of reinfections increased dramatically during the Delta variant-driven wave of the pandemic towards the end of 2021. We observe a moderate reduction of severe outcomes (hospitalization and death) in reinfections relative to primary infections, and a more substantial reduction of severe outcomes in breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals. CONCLUSIONS: In the available datasets from Bulgaria, prior infection appears to provide some protection from severe outcomes, but to a lower degree than the reduction in severity of breakthrough infections in the vaccinated compared to primary infections in the unvaccinated.

Initial introduction and spread of the SARS-CoV-2 AY.4.2.1 Delta variant in Bulgaria, a genomic insight.

The evolution of the emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants carrying mutations in the spike protein raises concerns about the possibility of accelerated transmission in the ever-evolving COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. AY.4.2, a sublineage of the Delta variant, was considered a variant under investigation (VUI) and also gained the nickname "Delta Plus," due to its extra mutations, Y145H and A222V. In this study, using genomic epidemiology, we provide the first insights into the introduction of AY.4.2 in Bulgaria and the AY.4.2.1 sublineage that found larger dissemination only in Bulgaria and the United Kingdom.

Analysis of the Origin and Dissemination of HIV-1 Subtype C in Bulgaria.

HIV-1 subtype C is the most abundant strain of HIV-1 infections worldwide and was found in the first known patients diagnosed with HIV/AIDS in Bulgaria in 1986. However, there is limited information on the molecular-epidemiological characteristics of this strain in the epidemic of the country. In this study, we analyze the evolutionary history of the introduction and dissemination of HIV-1 subtype C in Bulgaria using global phylogenetic analysis, Bayesian coalescent-based approach, and molecular clock methods. All available samples with HIV-1 subtype C from individuals diagnosed with HIV/AIDS between 1986 and 2017 were analyzed. Men and women were equally represented, and 24.3% of patients reported being infected abroad. The global phylogenetic analysis indicated multiple introductions of HIV-1 subtype C from various countries of the world. The reconstruction of a Bayesian time-scaled phylogenies showed that several Bulgarian strains segregated together in clusters, while others were intermixed in larger clades containing strains isolated from both European and non-European countries. The time-scale of HIV-1 subtype C introductions in Bulgaria demonstrates the early introduction of these viruses in the country. Our in-depth phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses are compatible with a scenario of multiple early introductions in the country followed by limited local distribution in the subsequent years. HIV-1 subtype C was introduced in the early years of the epidemic, originating from different countries of the world. Due to the comprehensive measures for prevention and control in the early years of the epidemic in Bulgaria, HIV-1 subtype C was not widely disseminated among the general population of the country.

Update on the Phylodynamics of SADS-CoV.

Coronaviruses are known to be harmful and heterogeneous viruses, able to infect a large number of hosts. Among them, SADS-CoV (Swine Acute Diarrhea Syndrome Coronavirus), also known as PEAV (Porcine Enteric Alphacoronavirus), or SeA-CoV (Swine Enteric Alphacoronavirus), is the most recent Alphacoronavirus discovered, and caused several outbreaks reported in Chinese swine herds between late 2016 and 2019. We performed an upgraded phylodinamic reconstruction of SADS-CoV based on all whole genomes available on 21 June 2021. Results showed a very close relationship between SADS-CoV and HKU2-like CoV, which may represent the evolutionary intermediate step towards the present SADS-CoV. The direct progenitor of SADS-CoV is so far unknown and, although it is well known that horseshoe bats are reservoirs for Rhinolophus bat coronavirus HKU2-like (HKU2-like CoVs), the transmission path from bats to pigs is still unclear. The discrepancies in the phylogenetic position of rodent CoV, when different molecular markers were considered, corroborate the recombination hypothesis, suggesting that wild rats, which are frequent in farms, may have played a key role. The failure of the attempt at molecular dating, due to the lack of a clock signal, also corroborates the occurrence of a recombination event hypothesis. Zoonotic infections originating in wildlife can easily become a significant threat for human health. In such a context, due to the high recombination and cross-species capabilities of Coronavirus, SADS-CoV represents a possible high-risk pathogen for humans which needs a constant molecular monitoring.

Global disparities in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance.

Genomic sequencing provides critical information to track the evolution and spread of SARS-CoV-2, optimize molecular tests, treatments and vaccines, and guide public health responses. To investigate the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the global SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance, we estimated the impact of sequencing intensity and turnaround times (TAT) on variant detection in 167 countries. Most countries submit genomes >21 days after sample collection, and 77% of low and middle income countries sequenced <0.5% of their cases. We found that sequencing at least 0.5% of the cases, with a TAT <21 days, could be a benchmark for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance efforts. Socioeconomic inequalities substantially impact our ability to quickly detect SARS-CoV-2 variants, and undermine the global pandemic preparedness.

Estimating the percentage of European MSM eligible for PrEP: insights from a bio-behavioural survey in thirteen cities.

OBJECTIVES: This paper aims to estimate the percentage of European men who have sex with men (MSM) who may benefit from pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), applying the three most widely used HIV risk indices for MSM (MSM Risk Index, Menza score, San Diego Early Test (SDET) score) and drawing on a large-scale multisite bio-behavioural survey (Sialon II). METHODS: The Sialon II study was a bio-behavioural survey among MSM implemented in 13 European cities using either time-location sampling or respondent-driven sampling. Biological and behavioural data from 4901 MSM were collected. Only behavioural data of HIV-negative individuals were considered. Three widely used risk indices to assess HIV acquisition risk among MSM were used to estimate individual HIV risk scores and PrEP eligibility criteria. RESULTS: 4219 HIV-negative MSM were considered. Regardless the HIV risk score used and the city, percentages of MSM eligible for PrEP were found to range between 5.19% and 73.84%. Overall, the MSM Risk Index and the Menza score yielded broadly similar percentages, whereas the SDET Index provided estimates constantly lower across all cities. Although all the three scores correlated positively (r>0.6), their concordance was highly variable (0.01

Molecular Epidemiological Analysis of the Origin and Transmission Dynamics of the HIV-1 CRF01_AE Sub-Epidemic in Bulgaria.

HIV-1 subtype CRF01_AE is the second most predominant strain in Bulgaria, yet little is known about the molecular epidemiology of its origin and transmissibility. We used a phylodynamics approach to better understand this sub-epidemic by analyzing 270 HIV-1 polymerase (pol) sequences collected from persons diagnosed with HIV/AIDS between 1995 and 2019. Using network analyses at a 1.5% genetic distance threshold (d), we found a large 154-member outbreak cluster composed mostly of persons who inject drugs (PWID) that were predominantly men. At d = 0.5%, which was used to identify more recent transmission, the large cluster dissociated into three clusters of 18, 12, and 7 members, respectively, five dyads, and 107 singletons. Phylogenetic analysis of the Bulgarian sequences with publicly available global sequences showed that CRF01_AE likely originated from multiple Asian countries, with Vietnam as the likely source of the outbreak cluster between 1988 and 1990. Our findings indicate that CRF01_AE was introduced into Bulgaria multiple times since 1988, and infections then rapidly spread among PWID locally with bridging to other risk groups and countries. CRF01_AE continues to spread in Bulgaria as evidenced by the more recent large clusters identified at d = 0.5%, highlighting the importance of public health prevention efforts in the PWID communities.

Being in the Closet. Correlates of Outness Among MSM in 13 European Cities.

Data for MSM continue to show a high risk of acquiring HIV-STIs. Within this population, outness seems to have an impact on both risk-taking and on health seeking behaviors. The objective of this study was to assess the relationship between socio-demographic, behavioral characteristics, testing behaviors, and outness level among MSM using data from a multi-center bio-behavioral cross-sectional study carried out in 13 EU cities. A multilevel analysis was conducted to identify factors associated with being open ("out") versus not being open ("in"). A total of 4,901 MSM were enrolled in the study and were classified as "out" in 71% of the cases. MSM "out" were more likely to report HIV testing and being reached by HIV prevention programs compared to MSM who were "in." The results confirm the key role of outness in relation to different healthy and risky behavior, ranging from testing to party-drug use.

Molecular Epidemiology of the HIV-1 Subtype B Sub-Epidemic in Bulgaria.

HIV-1 subtype B is the predominant strain in Bulgaria, yet little is known about the molecular epidemiology of these infections, including its origin and transmissibility. We used a phylodynamics approach by combining and analyzing 663 HIV-1 polymerase (pol) sequences collected from persons diagnosed with HIV/AIDS between 1988-2018 and associated epidemiologic data to better understand this sub-epidemic in Bulgaria. Using network analyses at a 1.5% genetic distance threshold (d) we found several large phylogenetic clusters composed mostly of men who have sex with men (MSM) and male heterosexuals (HET). However, at d = 0.5%, used to identify more recent transmission, the largest clusters dissociated to become smaller in size. The majority of female HET and persons with other transmission risks were singletons or pairs in the network. Phylogenetic analysis of the Bulgarian pol sequences with publicly available global sequences showed that subtype B was likely introduced into Bulgaria from multiple countries, including Israel and several European countries. Our findings indicate that subtype B was introduced into Bulgaria multiple times since 1988 and then infections rapidly spread among MSM and non-disclosed MSM. These high-risk behaviors continue to spread subtype B infection in Bulgaria as evidenced by the large clusters at d = 0.5%. Relatively low levels of antiretroviral drug resistance were observed in our study. Prevention strategies should continue to include increased testing and linkage to care and treatment, as well as expanded outreach to the MSM communities.

Short Communication: Elevated Labile Iron Levels in CD4 and CD8 T Cells from HIV-Positive Individuals with Undetectable Viral Load.

Iron is a key factor at various stages of HIV life cycle and determines the progression of HIV infection. Data about cellular labile iron pool (LIP) in the settings of contemporary antiretroviral therapy (cART) are lacking. Yet LIP is directly related to the generation of reactive oxygen species, and may contribute to immune activation, dysfunction, and exhaustion. Using multiparameter flow cytometry, we evaluated LIP in CD4 and CD8 T cells from HIV+ patients with sustained viral suppression (SVS) as a result of continuous long-term cART. Based on the recovery of CD4/CD8 ratio, two patients' subgroups were defined: A (n = 26), CD4/CD8 > 0.9, and B (n = 37), CD4/CD8 < 0.9, with significantly differing CD4 absolute count (AC) (mean 752 vs. 571 cells/µL, p < .05). Although hemoglobin and serum iron had recovered in all patients, CD4 T cell LIP and CD8 T cell LIP were significantly higher than that of controls, both in the subgroup with complete (A) and with incomplete (B) immune recovery [mean CD4 mean fluorescence intensity (ΔMFI) 318.7 and 777.8 vs. 157.6; mean CD8 ΔMFI 359.5 and 628.7 vs. 179.2, analysis of variance p < .05 for both]. CD4 LIP correlated inversely with CD4 AC (R = -0.4, p < .01), and both CD4 LIP and CD8 LIP-with CD4/CD8 ratio (R = -0.4, p < .01). Thus, increased CD4 T cell LIP and CD8 T cell LIP in the settings of SVS and immune recovery are a sensitive marker of residual immune activation and may predict immune exhaustion in long-term cART-treated patients.

State of viral hepatitis care in 16 countries of Central and Eastern European Region.

OBJECTIVES: Survey was conducted to assess state of viral hepatitis care in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). METHODS: Representatives of 16 CEE countries completed on-line survey in April-May 2017 that collected information on basic epidemiology and availability of key services for HCV and HBV infections. Sources of information provided ranged from national surveillance data to expert opinion. RESULTS: The burden of viral hepatitis varied between countries, ranging from 6,500 to 2 million for HCV and from 10,000 to 3 million for HBV. Access to routine HCV RNA testing and genotyping was reported by 11 and 9 countries, respectively. HCV resistance testing was available in 7 countries. Direct acting antivirals (DAAs) were available in 13 countries, most frequently Sofosbuvir and Ledipasvir/Sofosbuvir (12 countries apiece) and Ombitasvir/Paritaprevir/Dasabuvir (9 countries). HBV DNA testing and HBV genotyping were routinely available in 10 and 7 countries, respectively. Eleven countries reported available treatment with Tenofovir. CONCLUSIONS: There are gaps in viral hepatitis care in CEE. Despite the availability of registered modern drugs for HCV and HBV, the access to treatment is limited. Ensuring quality health care is essential to reduce the epidemic and achieve the WHO's goal of eliminating viral hepatitis as a major public health challenge.

Injection of cocaine is associated with a recent HIV outbreak in people who inject drugs in Luxembourg.

BACKGROUND: An outbreak of HIV infections among people who inject drugs (PWID) started in 2014 in Luxembourg. OBJECTIVES: We conducted phylogenetic and epidemiological analyses among the PWID infected with HIV in Luxembourg or attending the supervised drug consumption facility (SDCF) to understand the main causes of the outbreak. METHODS: Between January 2013 and December 2017, analysis of medical files were performed from all PWID infected with HIV at the National Service of Infectious Diseases (NSID) providing clinical care nationwide. PWID were interviewed at NSID and SDCF using a standardized questionnaire focused on drug consumption and risk behaviours. The national drug monitoring system RELIS was consulted to determine the frequency of cocaine/heroin use. Transmission clusters were analysed by phylogenetic analyses using approximate maximum-likelihood. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed on epidemiological data collected at NSID and SDCF to determine risk factors associated with cocaine use. RESULTS: From January 2013 to December 2017, 68 new diagnosis of HIV infection reported injecting drug use as the main risk of transmission at NSID. The proportion of female cases enrolled between 2013-2017 was higher than the proportion among cases enrolled prior to 2013. (33% vs 21%, p < 0.05). Fifty six viral sequences were obtained from the 68 PWID newly diagnosed for HIV. Two main transmission clusters were revealed: one HIV-1 subtype B cluster and one CRF14_BG cluster including 37 and 9 patients diagnosed since 2013, respectively. Interviews from 32/68 (47%) newly diagnosed PWID revealed that 12/32 (37.5%) were homeless and 27/32 (84.4%) injected cocaine. Increased cocaine injection was indeed reported by the RELIS participants from 53 to 63% in drug users with services contacts between 2012 and 2015, and from 5 to 22% in SDCF users between 2012 and 2016. Compared with PWID who injected only heroin (n = 63), PWID injecting cocaine and heroin (n = 107) were younger (mean of 38 vs 44 years, p≤0.001), reported more frequent piercing (≤0.001), shared and injected drugs more often (p≤0.01), and were more frequently HIV positive (p<0.05) at SDCF using univariate logistic regression analysis. Finally, in the multivariate analysis, use of heroin and cocaine was independently associated with younger age, piercing, sharing of drugs, and regular consumption (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Injecting cocaine is a new trend of drug use in Luxembourg associated with HIV infection in this recent outbreak among PWID.

Earlier Initiation of Antiretroviral Treatment Coincides With an Initial Control of the HIV-1 Sub-Subtype F1 Outbreak Among Men-Having-Sex-With-Men in Flanders, Belgium.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) non-B subtype infections occurred in Belgium since the 1980s, mainly amongst migrants and heterosexuals, whereas subtype B predominated in men-having-sex-with-men (MSM). In the last decade, the diagnosis of F1 sub-subtype in particular has increased substantially, which prompted us to perform a detailed reconstruction of its epidemiological history. To this purpose, the Belgian AIDS Reference Laboratories collected HIV-1 pol sequences from all sub-subtype F1-infected patients for whom genotypic drug resistance testing was requested as part of routine clinical follow-up. This data was complemented with HIV-1 pol sequences from countries with a high burden of F1 infections or a potential role in the global origin of sub-subtype F1. The molecular epidemiology of the Belgian subtype F1 epidemic was investigated using Bayesian phylogenetic inference and transmission dynamics were characterized based on birth-death models. F1 sequences were retained from 297 patients diagnosed and linked to care in Belgium between 1988 and 2015. Phylogenetic inference indicated that among the 297 Belgian F1 sequences, 191 belonged to a monophyletic group that mainly contained sequences from people likely infected in Belgium (OR 26.67, 95% CI 9.59-74.15), diagnosed in Flanders (OR 7.28, 95% CI 4.23-12.53), diagnosed at a recent stage of infection (OR 7.19, 95% CI 2.88-17.95) or declared to be MSM (OR 34.8, 95% CI 16.0-75.6). Together with a Spanish clade, this Belgian clade was embedded in the genetic diversity of Brazilian subtype F1 strains and most probably emerged after one or only a few migration events from Brazil to the European continent before 2002. The origin of the Belgian outbreak was dated back to 2002 (95% higher posterior density 2000-2004) and birth-death models suggested that its extensive growth had been controlled (Re < 1) by 2012, coinciding with a time period where delay in antiretroviral treatment initiation substantially declined. In conclusion, phylogenetic reconstruction of the Belgian HIV-1 sub-subtype F1 epidemic illustrates the introduction and substantial dissemination of viral strains in a geographically restricted risk group that was most likely controlled by effective treatment as prevention.