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BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested that drug pricing could contribute to drug shortages; however, there is limited quantitative assessment of this potential causal association. This retrospective database analysis aimed to investigate the association between drug prices and drug shortage incidents in Saudi Arabia. METHODS: This was a retrospective database analysis study. Drugs with shortage notifications sent to the Saudi Food and Drug Authority (SFDA) between January 2017 and December 2020 were included. Each drug's foreign-to-Saudi price ratio (FTSPR) was calculated by dividing the mean international price by the Saudi price. Drugs were categorized into three groups based on their FTSPR: Group 1 (FTSPR > 1), Group 2 (FTSPR = 1), and Group 3 (FTSPR < 1). The primary outcome was the ratio of mean counts (mCR) between the three groups, with Group 3 serving as the control group. The analysis was adjusted for the measured confounders using a negative binomial regression model. RESULTS: A total of 900 drugs were included in the study, with 348 in Group 1, 345 in Group 2, and 209 in Group 3. The mean count in Group 1 was higher compared to Group 3 (mCR: 1.88; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.24 to 2.83), while the mean counts between Group 2 and Group 3 were comparable (mCR: 1.39; 95% CI 0.92 to 2.09). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate an association between drug shortage incidents and higher prices of drugs outside Saudi Arabia. Further studies are needed to explore this causal relationship in different contexts.
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BACKGROUND: Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 aims to reform health care across the Kingdom, with health technology assessment being adopted as one tool promising to improve the efficiency with which resources are used. An understanding of the opportunity costs of reimbursement decisions is key to fulfilling this promise and can be used to inform a cost-effectiveness threshold. This paper is the first to provide a range of estimates of this using existing evidence extrapolated to the context of Saudi Arabia. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We use four approaches to estimate the marginal cost per unit of health produced by the healthcare system; drawing from existing evidence provided by a cross-country analysis, two alternative estimates from the UK context, and based on extrapolating a UK estimate using evidence on the income elasticity of the value of health. Consequences of estimation error are explored. RESULTS: Based on the four approaches, we find a range of SAR 42,046 per QALY gained (48% of GDP per capita) to SAR 215,120 per QALY gained (246% of GDP per capita). Calculated potential central estimates from the average of estimated health gains based on each source gives a range of SAR 50,000-75,000. The results are in line with estimates from the emerging literature from across the world. CONCLUSION: A cost-effectiveness threshold reflecting health opportunity costs can aid decision-making. Applying a cost-effectiveness threshold based on the range SAR 50,000 to 75,000 per QALY gained would ensure that resource allocation decisions in healthcare can in be informed in a way that accounts for health opportunity costs. LIMITATIONS: A limitation is that it is not based on a within-country study for Saudi Arabia, which represents a promising line of future work.
Healthcare in Saudi Arabia is undergoing wide-ranging reform through Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030. One aim of these reforms is to ensure that money spent on healthcare generates the most improvement in population health possible. To do this requires understanding the trade-offs that exist: funding one pharmaceutical drug means that same money is not available to fund another pharmaceutical drug. This is relevant whether the new drug would be funded from within the existing budget for healthcare or from an expansion of it. If the drugs apply to the same patient population and have the same price, the question is simply, "which one generates more health?" In reality, we need to compare pharmaceutical drugs for different diseases, patient populations, and at a range of potential prices to understand whether the drug in question would generate more health per riyal spent than what is currently funded by the healthcare system. This paper provides the first estimates of the amount of health, measured in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALYs), generated by the Saudi Arabian healthcare system. We find that the healthcare system generates health at a rate of one QALY produced for every 50,00075,000 riyals spent (5886% of GDP per capita). Using the range we estimate to inform cost-effectiveness threshold can aid decision-making.