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BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity is a major public health concern, exacerbated in countries with a (sub)tropical climate. The built environment can facilitate physical activity; however, current evidence is mainly from North American and European countries with activity-friendly climate conditions. This study explored associations between built environment features and physical activity in global tropical or subtropical dry or desert climate regions. METHODS: A systematic review of four major databases (Web of Science, Scopus, PubMed, and SportDISCUS) was performed. To be included, studies had to investigate associations between perceived or objective built environment characteristics and adult's physical activity and had to be conducted in a location with (sub)tropical climate. Each investigated association was reported as one case and results were synthesized based upon perceived and objectively assessed environment characteristics as well as Western and non-Western countries. Study quality was evaluated using a tool designed for assessing studies on built environment and physical activity. RESULTS: Eighty-four articles from 50 studies in 13 countries with a total of 2546 built environment-physical activity associations were included. Design (connectivity, walking/cycling infrastructure), desirability (aesthetics, safety), and destination accessibility were the built environment characteristics most frequently associated with physical activity across the domains active transport, recreational physical activity, total walking and cycling, and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, particularly if multiple attributes were present at the same time. Very few studies assessed built environment attributes specifically relevant to physical activity in (sub)tropical climates. Most studies were conducted in Western countries, with results being largely comparable with non-Western countries. Findings were largely generalizable across gender and age groups. Results from natural experiments indicated that relocating to an activity-friendly neighborhood impacted sub-groups differently. CONCLUSIONS: Built environment attributes, including destination accessibility, connectivity, walking and cycling infrastructure, safety, and aesthetics, are positively associated with physical activity in locations with (sub)tropical climate. However, few studies focus on built environment attributes specifically relevant in a hot climate, such as shade or indoor recreation options. Further, there is limited evidence from non-Western countries, where most of the urban population lives in (sub)tropical climates. Policy makers should focus on implementing activity-friendly environment attributes to create sustainable and climate-resilient cities.
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Ambiente Construído , Exercício Físico , Clima Tropical , Caminhada , Adulto , Humanos , Ciclismo/estatística & dados numéricos , Planejamento Ambiental , Características de Residência , Caminhada/estatística & dados numéricosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Insufficient physical activity (PA) was estimated to cause 4.8% of deaths and 2.6% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to noncommunicable diseases in Saudi Arabia in 2019. While Saudi Arabia is already achieving great improvements, we predict the health and economic burden of insufficient PA up to 2040 to present a case for policy makers to invest more in the uptake of PA. METHODS: Using a population health model to estimate avoidable health loss, we identified four causes of health loss related to low PA (cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, breast cancer, and colorectal cancer) and estimated the deaths and DALYs from these causes. We projected the expected disease burden until 2040 under alternative assumptions about future PA levels and trends by using three health scenarios: baseline (no change in 2019 PA levels), intervention (81% of the population achieving sufficient PA levels), and ideal (65% of population: moderate PA, 30%: high PA, and 5%: inactive). We applied an "intrinsic value" approach to estimate the economic impact of each scenario. RESULTS: Overall, we estimate that between 2023 and 2040, about 80,000 to 110,000 deaths from all causes and 2.0 million to 2.9 million DALYs could be avoided by increasing PA levels in Saudi Arabia. The average annual economic loss from insufficient PA is valued at 0.49% to 0.68% of the current gross domestic product, with an average of US$5.4 billion to US$7.6 billion annually till 2040. The most avoidable disease burden and economic losses are expected among males and because of ischemic heart disease. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights that low PA levels will have considerable health and economic impacts in Saudi Arabia if people remain inactive and do not start following interventions. There is an urgent need to develop innovative programs and policies to encourage PA among all age and sex groups.
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Doenças Cardiovasculares , Estresse Financeiro , Masculino , Humanos , Arábia Saudita/epidemiologia , Efeitos Psicossociais da DoençaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Chronic diseases, or non-communicable diseases (NCD), are conditions of long duration and often influenced and contributed by complex interactions of several variables, including genetic, physiological, environmental, and behavioral factors. These conditions contribute to death, disability, and subsequent health care costs. Primary and secondary school settings provide an opportunity to deliver relatively low cost and effective interventions to improve public health outcomes. However, there lacks systematic evidence on the cost-effectiveness of these interventions. METHODS: We systematically searched four databases (PubMed/Medline, Cochrane, Embase, and Web of Science) for published studies on the cost-effectiveness of chronic-disease interventions in school settings. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they assessed interventions of any chronic or non-communicable disease, were conducted in a school setting, undertook a full cost-effectiveness analysis and were available in English, Spanish, or French. RESULTS: Our review identified 1029 articles during our initial search of the databases, and after screening, 33 studies were included in our final analysis. The most used effectiveness outcome measures were summary effectiveness units such as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) (22 articles; 67%) or disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) (4 articles; 12%). The most common health condition for which an intervention targets is overweight and obesity. Almost all school-based interventions were found to be cost-effective (30 articles; 81%). CONCLUSION: Our review found evidence to support a number of cost-effective school-based interventions targeting NCDs focused on vaccination, routine physical activity, and supplement delivery interventions. Conversely, many classroom-based cognitive behavioral therapy for mental health and certain multi-component interventions for obesity were not found to be cost-effective.
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BACKGROUND: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region faces unique challenges in promoting physical activity and reducing sedentary behaviors, as the prevalence of insufficient physical activity is higher than the global average. Mobile technologies present a promising approach to delivering behavioral interventions; however, little is known about the effectiveness and user perspectives on these technologies in the MENA region. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of mobile interventions targeting physical activity and sedentary behaviors in the MENA region and explore users' perspectives on these interventions as well as any other outcomes that might influence users' adoption and use of mobile technologies (eg, appropriateness and cultural fit). METHODS: A systematic search of 5 databases (MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Scopus, and Global Index Medicus) was performed. Any primary studies (participants of all ages regardless of medical condition) conducted in the MENA region that investigated the use of mobile technologies and reported any measures of physical activity, sedentary behaviors, or user perceptions were included. We conducted a narrative synthesis of all studies and a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The Cochrane risk-of-bias tool was used to assess the quality of the included RCTs; quality assessment of the rest of the included studies was completed using the relevant Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tools. RESULTS: In total, 27 articles describing 22 interventions (n=10, 37% RCTs) and 4 (15%) nonexperimental studies were included (n=6141, 46% women). Half (11/22, 50%) of the interventions included mobile apps, whereas the other half examined SMS. The main app functions were goal setting and self-monitoring of activity, whereas SMS interventions were primarily used to deliver educational content. Users in experimental studies described several benefits of the interventions (eg, gaining knowledge and receiving reminders to be active). Engagement with the interventions was poorly reported; few studies (8/27, 30%) examined users' perspectives on the appropriateness or cultural fit of the interventions. Nonexperimental studies examined users' perspectives on mobile apps and fitness trackers, reporting several barriers to their use, such as perceived lack of usefulness, loss of interest, and technical issues. The meta-analysis of RCTs showed a positive effect of mobile interventions on physical activity outcomes (standardized mean difference=0.45, 95% CI 0.17-0.73); several sensitivity analyses showed similar results. The trim-and-fill method showed possible publication bias. Only 20% (2/10) of the RCTs measured sedentary behaviors; both reported positive changes. CONCLUSIONS: The use of mobile interventions for physical activity and sedentary behaviors in the MENA region is in its early stages, with preliminary evidence of effectiveness. Policy makers and researchers should invest in high-quality studies to evaluate long-term effectiveness, intervention engagement, and implementation outcomes, which can inform the design of culturally and socially appropriate interventions for countries in the MENA region. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42023392699; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=392699.
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Exercício Físico , Promoção da Saúde , Aplicativos Móveis , Comportamento Sedentário , Humanos , África do Norte , Oriente Médio , Promoção da Saúde/métodosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Appointment non-attendance - often referred to as "missed appointments", "patient no-show", or "did not attend (DNA)" - causes volatility in health systems around the world. Of the different approaches that can be adopted to reduce patient non-attendance, behavioural economics-oriented mechanisms (i.e., psychological, cognitive, emotional, and social factors that may impact individual decisions) are reasoned to be better suited in such contexts - where the need is to persuade, nudge, and/ or incentivize patients to honour their scheduled appointment. The aim of this systematic literature review is to identify and summarize the published evidence on the use and effectiveness of behavioural economic interventions to reduce no-shows for health care appointments. METHODS: We systematically searched four databases (PubMed/Medline, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science) for published and grey literature on behavioural economic strategies to reduce no-shows for health care appointments. Eligible studies met four criteria for inclusion; they were (1) available in English, Spanish, or French, (2) assessed behavioural economics interventions, (3) objectively measured a behavioural outcome (as opposed to attitudes or preferences), and (4) used a randomized and controlled or quasi-experimental study design. RESULTS: Our initial search of the five databases identified 1,225 articles. After screening studies for inclusion criteria and assessing risk of bias, 61 studies were included in our final analysis. Data was extracted using a predefined 19-item extraction matrix. All studies assessed ambulatory or outpatient care services, although a variety of hospital departments or appointment types. The most common behaviour change intervention assessed was the use of reminders (n = 56). Results were mixed regarding the most effective methods of delivering reminders. There is significant evidence supporting the effectiveness of reminders (either by SMS, telephone, or mail) across various settings. However, there is a lack of evidence regarding alternative interventions and efforts to address other heuristics, leaving a majority of behavioural economic approaches unused and unassessed. CONCLUSION: The studies in our review reflect a lack of diversity in intervention approaches but point to the effectiveness of reminder systems in reducing no-show rates across a variety of medical departments. We recommend future studies to test alternative behavioural economic interventions that have not been used, tested, and/or published before.
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Economia Comportamental , Telefone , Humanos , Cooperação do Paciente , Terapia Comportamental , Instalações de Saúde , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como AssuntoRESUMO
Objective: This study aimed to review health-enhancing physical activity (HEPA) policies and initiatives introduced in Saudi Arabia (SA) since 2016 and identify the gaps in their design and implementation. Methods: A combination of methods was used, including semi-structured interviews with key informants from relevant entities (such as those from the ministries of health, education, sports, tourism, and other regulatory bodies) and a review of policy/initiative documents provided by them. Stakeholder mapping led by local experts and snowball sampling supported the identification of key informants. Three existing frameworks-the World Health Organization's HEPA Policy Audit Tool, the Global Observatory for Physical Activity (PA) Policy Inventory, and the European Monitoring Framework for PA Indicators-were used to develop data collection instruments. Results: The review identified 44 policies/initiatives from different sectors. The Saudi Sports for All Federation is the leader in PA promotion and community sports development. However, there is a lack of multisectoral agenda and governance structures for PA promotion. The overlap between initiatives by different key informants results in duplication of efforts, including initiatives to promote PA among the general public led by competitive professional sports and community-based sports. Conclusion: The study findings indicate that several policies/initiatives have been implemented in SA since 2016. However, there is a need to focus on the challenges or barriers that affect the sustainability of policies/initiatives. A system-based approach can help build on sectoral synergies, thereby accelerating progress in engaging the Saudi population with PA.
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Exercício Físico , Esportes , Arábia Saudita , Política de Saúde , EscolaridadeRESUMO
One common strategy for governments to tackle the non-communicable disease (NCD) epidemic is front-of-package (FOP) nutrition labeling. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is considering implementing a new FOP label that is based on either France's Nutri-Score (NS), which labels all foods (A = healthiest to E = least healthy) based on overall nutritional quality, or the Chilean warning label (WL) approach, which identifies foods to avoid based on select nutritional characteristics. Using a fully functional online grocery store, this study aimed to test these two promising FOP strategies by randomizing 656 KSA adults into one of the three versions of the store to complete a hypothetical grocery shop: no-label (control), NS, and WL. The NS was modified with a sugar percentage tag given that reducing sugar consumption is one of KSA's public health goals. We found that both modified NS labels and Chilean warning labels positively influenced food and beverage choices among KSA participants, but there were differential effects across the two labels. Relative to the control, NS improved the overall diet quality of the shopping baskets, measured by the weighted (by the number of servings) average NS point (ranging from 0, least healthy, to 55, healthiest), by 2.5 points [95% CI: 1.7, 3.4; p < 0.001], whereas results for WL were not statistically significant (0.6 points [95% CI: -0.2,1.5]). With respect to each nutritional attribute, we found that NS reduced sugar intake per serving, whereas WL was effective at decreasing energy and saturated fat intake per serving from food and beverages purchased. Our results suggest that the NS approach that identifies the healthiness of all foods using a holistic approach appears preferable if the purpose of the label is to improve overall diet quality as opposed to addressing select nutrients to avoid.
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Comportamento do Consumidor , Estado Nutricional , Adulto , Humanos , Arábia Saudita , Valor Nutritivo , Rotulagem de Alimentos/métodos , Comportamento de Escolha , Açúcares , Preferências AlimentaresRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Saudi Arabia is experiencing rapid development of the built environment and implementing policy changes to promote physical activity (PA) and reduce sedentary behavior (SB) among its population. In light of these developments, this scoping review systematically summarized population levels of PA/SB in Saudi Arabia. METHODS: The authors searched 6 databases on December 13, 2021, for articles published in English or Arabic from 2018 to the search date. Studies using population-based sampling in Saudi Arabia and measuring PA/SB were included. RESULTS: Of the 1272 records found, 797 were screened, and 19 studies (9 on children/adolescents age 6-19 y and 10 on adults age 15-75 y) were included. All studies were cross-sectional in design, and 18 studies collected data at only one point in time, ranging from 2009 to 2020. A total of 18 studies relied on self-reporting to assess PA/SB using a variety of questionnaires. Among children/adolescents, approximately 80% to 90% did not attain at least 60 minutes per day of moderate to vigorous PA and 50% to 80% engaged in ≥2 hours per day of screen time or SB. Among adults, approximately 50% to 95% had low or insufficient PA (eg, less than meeting PA guidelines) and about half had a sitting time of ≥5 hours per day. Population-based studies were not found among children <10 years and adults >75 years. CONCLUSIONS: A high proportion of participants in the reviewed studies did not meet PA recommendations and spent excessive time in SB. Ongoing surveillance efforts for all ages may help identify target populations for interventions and prioritize the national strategy on PA/SB in Saudi Arabia.
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Exercício Físico , Comportamento Sedentário , Adulto , Criança , Adolescente , Humanos , Adulto Jovem , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Arábia Saudita , Atividade Motora , Inquéritos e QuestionáriosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: In Saudi Arabia, stay-at-home orders to address the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic between March 15 and 23, 2020 and eased on May 28, 2020. We conducted a scoping review to systematically describe physical activity and sedentary behavior in Saudi Arabia associated with the timing of the lockdown. METHODS: We searched six databases on December 13, 2021 for articles published in English or Arabic from 2018 to the search date. Studies must have reported data from Saudi Arabia for any age and measured physical activity or sedentary behavior. RESULTS: Overall, 286 records were found; after excluding duplicates, 209 records were screened, and 19 studies were included in the review. Overall, 15 studies were cross-sectional, and 4 studies were prospective cohorts. Three studies included children and adolescents (age: 2-18 years), and 16 studies included adults (age: 15-99 years). Data collection periods were < = 5 months, with 17 studies collecting data in 2020 only, one study in 2020-2021, and one study in 2021. The median analytic sample size was 363 (interquartile range 262-640). Three studies of children/adolescents collected behaviors online at one time using parental reporting, with one also allowing self-reporting. All three studies found that physical activity was lower during and/or following the lockdown than before the lockdown. Two studies found screen time, television watching, and playing video games were higher during or following the lockdown than before the lockdown. Sixteen adult studies assessed physical activity, with 15 utilizing self-reporting and one using accelerometry. Physical activity, exercise, walking, and park visits were all lower during or following the lockdown than before the lockdown. Six adult studies assessed sedentary behavior using self-report. Sitting time (4 studies) and screen time (2 studies) were higher during or following the lockdown than before the lockdown. CONCLUSIONS: Among children, adolescents, and adults, studies consistently indicated that in the short-term, physical activity decreased and sedentary behavior increased in conjunction with the movement restrictions. Given the widespread impact of the pandemic on other health behaviors, it would be important to continue tracking behaviors post-lockdown and identify subpopulations that may not have returned to their physical activity and sedentary behavior to pre-pandemic levels to focus on intervention efforts.
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COVID-19 , Comportamento Sedentário , Adulto , Adolescente , Criança , Humanos , Pré-Escolar , Adulto Jovem , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Pandemias , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Arábia Saudita/epidemiologia , Estudos Prospectivos , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Exercício FísicoRESUMO
Background: E-government platforms provide an opportunity to use a novel data source for population health surveillance (also known as e-health). Absher is a Saudi e-government platform with 23 million authenticated users, including residents and citizens in Saudi Arabia. All Absher users were invited to participate in a web-based survey to estimate the prevalence of noncommunicable diseases and their risk factors in Saudi Arabia. Objective: To assess the potential of using an e-government platform (Absher) to administer web-based health surveys. Methods: A cross-sectional, web-based health survey was administered to Absher users between April 2019 and March 2020. The survey instrument included eight items and took <5 min to complete. The respondents' data were compared to Saudi Arabia's 2016 census. Descriptive summary statistics of the prevalence of major noncommuncable diseases are presented and compared to population-based prevalence data from Saudi Arabia's World Health Survey (WHS) 2019. All analysis was conducted using Stata 13.0. Results: Overall, the Absher health survey had a 24.6% response rate, with most respondents being male (84%), Saudi (67%), and between 30 and 44 years of age (49%). Overall, the prevalence of noncommunicable diseases and risk factors among respondents was high for overweight (35%) and obesity (30%) and low for asthma (6%). The prevalence of diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension was between 15 and 17% on average, and 26.5% were smokers. In comparison to population-based World Health Survey estimates, the Absher survey overestimated obesity, diabetes, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and smoking rates, and underestimated overweight, whereas asthma prevalence was similar for Absher and the WHS. Conclusions: With improvements in the study design, the use of e-government platforms can provide a useful and potentially low-cost data source for public health research.
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Asma , Hipertensão , Doenças não Transmissíveis , Asma/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Governo , Humanos , Hipertensão/epidemiologia , Masculino , Doenças não Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Obesidade/epidemiologia , Sobrepeso , Arábia Saudita/epidemiologia , Inquéritos e QuestionáriosRESUMO
Air pollution poses major disease burdens globally and accounts for approximately 10% of deaths annually through its contribution to a variety of respiratory, cardiovascular, and other diseases. The burden of disease is particularly acute in Saudi Arabia, where a mix of anthropogenic and natural sources of air pollution threatens public health. Addressing these burdens requires careful study of the costs and effectiveness of available technologies and policies for reducing emissions (mitigation) and avoiding exposure (adaptation). To help evaluate these options, we conduct a semi-systematic literature review of over 3,000 articles published since 2010 that were identified by searches of literature focused on pollution mitigation and pollution adaptation. We identify a wide variety of effective mitigation and adaptation technologies and find that cost-effectiveness information for policy design is highly variable in the case of mitigation, both within and across pollution source categories; or scarce, in the case of adaptation. While pollution control costs are well studied, policy costs differ; these may vary more by location because of factors such as technology operating conditions and behavioral responses to adaptation initiatives, limiting the generalizability of cost-effectiveness information. Moreover, potential cost advantages of multipollutant control policies are likely to depend on the existing mix of pollution sources and controls. While the policy literature generally favors more flexible compliance mechanisms that increase the cost of polluting to reflect its costs to society, important policy design factors include policy co-benefits, distributional concerns, and inter-regional harmonization. In addition to these key themes, we find that further study is needed both to improve the availability of cost information for adaptation interventions and to localize technology and policy cost estimates to the Saudi context.
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CONTEXT: The prevalence of overweight and obesity in Saudi Arabia has been rising. Although the health burden of excess weight is well established, little is known about the economic burden. AIMS: To assess the economic burden-both direct medical costs and the value of absenteeism and presenteeism-resulting from overweight and obesity in Saudi Arabia. SETTINGS AND DESIGN: The cost of overweight and obesity in Saudi Arabia was estimated from a societal perspective using an epidemiologic approach. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Data were obtained from previously published studies and secondary databases. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS USED: Overweight/obesity-attributable costs were calculated for six major noncommunicable diseases; sensitivity analyses were conducted for key model parameters. RESULTS: The impact of overweight and obesity for these diseases is found to directly cost a total of $3.8 billion, equal to 4.3 percent of total health expenditures in Saudi Arabia in 2019. Estimated overweight and obesity-attributable absenteeism and presenteeism costs a total of $15.5 billion, equal to 0.9 percent of GDP in 2019. CONCLUSIONS: Even when limited to six diseases and a subset of total indirect costs, results indicate that overweight and obesity are a significant economic burden in Saudi Arabia. Future studies should identify strategies to reduce the health and economic burden resulting from excess weight in Saudi Arabia.
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Estresse Financeiro , Sobrepeso , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Humanos , Obesidade/epidemiologia , Sobrepeso/epidemiologia , Prevalência , Arábia Saudita/epidemiologia , Aumento de PesoRESUMO
Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are recommended as part of comprehensive policy action to prevent diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs), but have been adopted by only one quarter of World Health Organization (WHO) Member States. This paper presents a comparative policy analysis of recent SSB taxes (2016-19) in 16 countries. This study aimed to analyse the characteristics and patterns of factors influencing adoption and implementation of SSB taxes and policy learning between countries, to draw lessons for future SSB taxes. The data collection and analysis were informed by an analytical framework that drew on 'diffusion of innovation' and theories of policy learning. Qualitative data were collected from policy documents and media, in addition to national statistics. Qualitative data were thematically analysed and a narrative synthesis approach was used for integrated case study analysis. We found adaptation and heterogeneity in the approaches used for SSB taxation with a majority of countries adopting excise taxes, and consistent health framing in media and policy documents. Common public frames supporting the taxes included reducing obesity/NCDs and raising revenue (government actors) and subsequent health system savings (non-government actors). Opposing frames focused on regressivity and incoherence with other economic policy (government actors) and posited that taxes have limited health benefits and negative economic impacts on the food industry (industry). Evident 'diffusion networks' included the WHO, predominantly in middle-income countries, and some regional economic bodies. We found indications of policy learning in the form of reference to other countries' taxes, particularly countries with membership in the same economic bodies and with shared borders. The study suggests that adoption of SSB taxation could be enhanced through strategic engagement by health actors with the policy-making process, consideration of the economic context, use of consistent health frames by cross-sector coalitions, and robust evaluation and reporting of SSB taxation.
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Doenças não Transmissíveis , Bebidas Adoçadas com Açúcar , Humanos , Doenças não Transmissíveis/prevenção & controle , Políticas , Formulação de Políticas , ImpostosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) quickly controlled the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by implementing several non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including suspension of international and national travel, local curfews, closing public spaces (i.e., schools and universities, malls and shops), and limiting religious gatherings. The KSA also mandated all citizens to respect physical distancing and to wear face masks. However, after relaxing some restrictions during June 2020, the KSA is now planning a strategy that could allow resuming in-person education and international travel. The aim of our study was to evaluate the effect of NPIs on the spread of the COVID-19 and test strategies to open schools and resume international travel. METHODS: We built a spatial-explicit individual-based model to represent the whole KSA population (IBM-KSA). The IBM-KSA was parameterized using country demographic, remote sensing, and epidemiological data. A social network was created to represent contact heterogeneity and interaction among age groups of the population. The IBM-KSA also simulated the movement of people across the country based on a gravity model. We used the IBM-KSA to evaluate the effect of different NPIs adopted by the KSA (physical distancing, mask-wearing, and contact tracing) and to forecast the impact of strategies to open schools and resume international travels. RESULTS: The IBM-KSA results scenarios showed the high effectiveness of mask-wearing, physical distancing, and contact tracing in controlling the spread of the disease. Without NPIs, the KSA could have reported 4,824,065 (95% CI: 3,673,775-6,335,423) cases by June 2021. The IBM-KSA showed that mandatory mask-wearing and physical distancing saved 39,452 lives (95% CI: 26,641-44,494). In-person education without personal protection during teaching would have resulted in a high surge of COVID-19 cases. Compared to scenarios with no personal protection, enforcing mask-wearing and physical distancing in schools reduced cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by 25% and 50%, when adherence to these NPIs was set to 50% and 70%, respectively. The IBM-KSA also showed that a quarantine imposed on international travelers reduced the probability of outbreaks in the country. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that the interventions adopted by the KSA were able to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the absence of a vaccine. In-person education should be resumed only if NPIs could be applied in schools and universities. International travel can be resumed but with strict quarantine rules. The KSA needs to keep strict NPIs in place until a high fraction of the population is vaccinated in order to reduce hospitalizations and deaths.
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COVID-19 , Busca de Comunicante , Humanos , Quarentena , SARS-CoV-2 , Arábia Saudita/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely employed to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Their associated effect on SARS-CoV-2 transmission have however been unequally studied across regions. Few studies have focused on the Gulf states despite their potential role for global pandemic spread, in particular in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia through religious pilgrimages. We study the association between NPIs and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia during the first pandemic wave between March and October 2020. We infer associations between NPIs introduction and lifting through a spatial SEIR-type model that allows for inferences of region-specific changes in transmission intensity. We find that reductions in transmission were associated with NPIs implemented shortly after the first reported case including Isolate and Test with School Closure (region-level mean estimates of the reduction in R0 ranged from 25-41%), Curfew (20-70% reduction), and Lockdown (50-60% reduction), although uncertainty in the estimates was high, particularly for the Isolate and Test with School Closure NPI (95% Credible Intervals from 1% to 73% across regions). Transmission was found to increase progressively in most regions during the last part of NPI relaxation phases. These results can help informing the policy makers in the planning of NPI scenarios as the pandemic evolves with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and the availability of vaccination.
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Background: This study tested the feasibility of implementing Healthy Hearts for an Abundant Life (HHAL), a cultural adaptation for African American (AA) women of the evidence-based cardiovascular disease prevention program Strong Women-Healthy Hearts (SWHH). Methods: Using a quasi-experimental pre-post study design, this 12-week program was implemented in four faith-based organizations between 2017 and 2018. Eligible participants were AA women between 40 and 65 years who had a body mass index of 25 or higher and were currently sedentary. HHAL program participants met weekly for 2-h sessions led by program leaders. The curriculum has four modules: total health; relationships, family, and networks; material security and the environment; and emotional wellness. Each class included walking for 30 min, goal-setting session, and a group dialog called "making it work" for building collective efficacy. Results: Of the 27 participants (mean age=54.2±5.9), 24 completed postassessments (93% retention rate). All outcome measures proved feasible and weekly program attendance was 73%. Findings from in-depth interviews show high satisfaction with the program and suggest extending the class time and adding cooking demonstrations. Conclusions: The culturally adapted HHAL proved feasible and was positively received by the participants. Future studies will evaluate the effectiveness of the program.
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The linkage of individuals with obesity and COVID-19 is controversial and lacks systematic reviews. After a systematic search of the Chinese and English language literature on COVID-19, 75 studies were used to conduct a series of meta-analyses on the relationship of individuals with obesity-COVID-19 over the full spectrum from risk to mortality. A systematic review of the mechanistic pathways for COVID-19 and individuals with obesity is presented. Pooled analysis show individuals with obesity were more at risk for COVID-19 positive, >46.0% higher (OR = 1.46; 95% CI, 1.30-1.65; p < 0.0001); for hospitalization, 113% higher (OR = 2.13; 95% CI, 1.74-2.60; p < 0.0001); for ICU admission, 74% higher (OR = 1.74; 95% CI, 1.46-2.08); and for mortality, 48% increase in deaths (OR = 1.48; 95% CI, 1.22-1.80; p < 0.001). Mechanistic pathways for individuals with obesity are presented in depth for factors linked with COVID-19 risk, severity and their potential for diminished therapeutic and prophylactic treatments among these individuals. Individuals with obesity are linked with large significant increases in morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. There are many mechanisms that jointly explain this impact. A major concern is that vaccines will be less effective for the individuals with obesity.