Leveraging malaria vaccines and mRNA technology to tackle the global inequity in pharmaceutical research and production towards disease elimination.

Malaria vaccine introduction in endemic countries is a game-changing milestone in the fight against the disease. This article examines the inequity in the global pharmaceutical research, development, manufacturing, and trade landscape. The role of inequity in hindering progress towards malaria elimination is explored. The analysis finds that transformational changes are required to create an equity-enabling environment. Addressing the inequity is critical to maximizing the public health impact of vaccines and attaining sustainability. Avenues to catalyze progress by leveraging malaria vaccines and messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) technology are discussed.

Malaria vaccination: hurdles to reach high-risk children.

Ensuring that malaria vaccines deliver maximum public health impact is non-trivial. Drawing on current research, this article examines hurdles that malaria immunization may face to reach high-risk children and explores the policy implications. The analysis finds health system related risks with the potential to reduce the ability of malaria vaccines to provide equitable protection. Deployment of effective frameworks to tackle these risks so as to strengthen within-country equity and progress tracking should be entangled with the deployment of the vaccines. To capture more comprehensively disease- and system-related risks to child health and survival, vaccine allocation criteria should expand their data and indicator breadth. Factoring molecular, clinical, and epidemiological features of antimalarial drug resistance into vaccine allocation frameworks is critical to effectively reflect current and future risks to malaria control interventions. It is proposed that approximately 6-15 children would need to be vaccinated to prevent a malaria adverse outcome. Vaccine purchasing and delivery costs may overwhelm endemic countries' health systems given the sizeable number needed to vaccinate, the population of at-risk children, and limited government financing of the health sector. Innovations in health financing are pivotal to ensuring the cost-effectiveness and sustainability of immunization programs aiming to attain and maintain universal and equitable protection.

Measuring income-associated inequalities in COVID-19 vaccination on a global scale: a modeling study.

Inequalities in the accessibility and utilization of quality, safe, and effective coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines across and within countries limited their value in protecting health during the COVID-19 pandemic. We quantified cross-country, income-associated inequality in COVID-19 vaccination using statistical models based on the data for 79 countries through December 2021. We found notable inequality in vaccinations per capita. At least 11.9% of doses administered in high-income countries could be redistributed to low-income countries to substantially reduce income-associated inequality in vaccinations. The results of this modeling study indicate that reliance on multiple doses of vaccine to attain optimal protection from COVID-19 is a significant contributor to inequality in vaccinations per capita. Dose-sharing mechanisms should account for and include efforts to optimize the capabilities of health systems to deliver vaccines.

Developing and validating regression models for predicting household consumption to introduce an equitable and sustainable health insurance system in Cambodia.

BACKGROUND: Financial protection is a challenge for low- and middle-income countries, where the fiscal space is limited, and majority of the population is engaged in the informal economy. This study developed and validated household consumption predictive models for Cambodia to collect contributions according to one's ability to pay. METHODS: This study used nationally representative survey data collected annually between 2010 and 2017, involving 38,472 households. We developed four alternative models: the manually selected linear model, the linear model with stepwise technique, the mixed effects linear model, and the model with regularisation technique. Subsequently, we performed out-of-sample cross-validation for each model, and evaluated the model prediction performance. RESULTS: Overall, observed and predicted household consumptions were linearly related in all four models. While the prediction performance of the models did not substantially differ, the stepwise linear model showed the best performance. The regularisation and the mixed effects were not particularly effective in these regressions. The household consumption was better predicted for those with lower consumption, and the predictivity declined as the consumption level increased. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests the possibility of predicting household consumption at a reasonable level. This would maximise the contribution revenue, optimise the government subsidy, and ensure equity in healthcare access.

A review of prospective pathways and impacts of COVID-19 on the accessibility, safety, quality, and affordability of essential medicines and vaccines for universal health coverage in Africa.

BACKGROUND: The ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has the potential to reverse progress towards global targets. This study examines the risks that the COVID-19 pandemic poses to equitable access to essential medicines and vaccines (EMV) for universal health coverage in Africa. METHODS: We searched medical databases and grey literature up to 2 October 2020 for studies reporting data on prospective pathways and innovative strategies relevant for the assessment and management of the emerging risks in accessibility, safety, quality, and affordability of EMV in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We used the resulting pool of evidence to support our analysis and to draw policy recommendations to mitigate the emerging risks and improve preparedness for future crises. RESULTS: Of the 310 records screened, 134 were included in the analysis. We found that the disruption of the international system affects more immediately the capability of low- and middle-income countries to acquire the basket of EMV. The COVID-19 pandemic may facilitate dishonesty and fraud, increasing the propensity of patients to take substandard and falsified drugs. Strategic regional cooperation in the form of joint tenders and contract awarding, joint price negotiation and supplier selection, as well as joint market research, monitoring, and evaluation could improve the supply, affordability, quality, and safety of EMV. Sustainable health financing along with international technology transfer and substantial investment in research and development are needed to minimize the vulnerability of African countries arising from their dependence on imported EMV. To ensure equitable access, community-based strategies such as mobile clinics as well as fees exemptions for vulnerable and under-served segments of society might need to be considered. Strategies such as task delegation and telephone triage could help reduce physician workload. This coupled with payments of risk allowance to frontline healthcare workers and health-literate healthcare organization might improve the appropriate use of EMV. CONCLUSIONS: Innovative and sustainable strategies informed by comparative risk assessment are increasingly needed to ensure that local economic, social, demographic, and epidemiological risks and potentials are accounted for in the national COVID-19 responses.

Plasmodium falciparum resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine in Africa: a systematic analysis of national trends.

INTRODUCTION: The rising burden of drug resistance is a major challenge to the global fight against malaria. We estimated national Plasmodium falciparum resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) across Africa, from 2000 to 2020. METHODS: We assembled molecular, clinical and endemicity data covering malaria-endemic African countries up to December 2018. Subsequently, we reconstructed georeferenced patient data, using pfdhps540E and pfdhps581G to measure mid-level and high-level SP resistance. Gaussian process regression was applied to model spatiotemporal standardised prevalence. RESULTS: In eastern Africa, mid-level SP resistance increased by 64.0% (95% uncertainty interval, 30.7%-69.8%) in Tanzania, 55.4% (31.3%-65.2%) in Sudan, 45.7% (16.8%-54.3%) in Mozambique, 29.7% (10.0%-45.2%) in Kenya and 8.7% (1.4%-36.8%) in Malawi from 2000 to 2010. This was followed by a steady decline of 76.0% (39.6%-92.6%) in Sudan, 65.7% (25.5%-85.6%) in Kenya and 17.4% (2.6%-37.5%) in Tanzania from 2010 to 2020. In central Africa, the levels increased by 28.9% (7.2%-62.5%) in Equatorial Guinea and 85.3% (54.0%-95.9%) in the Congo from 2000 to 2020, while in the other countries remained largely unchanged. In western Africa, the levels have remained low from 2000 to 2020, except for Nigeria, with a reduction of 14.4% (0.7%-67.5%) and Mali, with an increase of 7.0% (0.8%-25.6%). High-level SP resistance increased by 5.5% (1.0%-20.0%) in Malawi, 4.7% (0.5%-25.4%) in Kenya and 2.0% (0.1%-39.2%) in Tanzania, from 2000 to 2020. CONCLUSION: Under the WHO protocols, SP is no longer effective for intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy and infancy in most of eastern Africa and parts of central Africa. Strengthening health systems capacity to monitor drug resistance at subnational levels across the endemicity spectrum is critical to achieve the global target to end the epidemic.

What does the COVID-19 pandemic mean for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria control?

Despite its current relatively low global share of cases and deaths in Africa compared to other regions, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has the potential to trigger other larger crises in the region. This is due to the vulnerability of health and economic systems, coupled with the high burden of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), tuberculosis (TB), and malaria. Here we examine the potential implications of COVID-19 on the control of these major epidemic diseases in Africa. We use current evidence on disease burden of HIV, TB, and malaria, and epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 in Africa, retrieved from the literature. Our analysis shows that the current measures to control COVID-19 neglect important and complex context-specific epidemiological, social, and economic realities in Africa. There is a similarity of clinical features of TB and malaria, with those used to track COVID-19 cases. This coupled with institutional mistrust and misinformation might result in many patients with clinical features similar to those of COVID-19 being hesitant to voluntarily seek care in a formal health facility. Furthermore, most people in productive age in Africa work in the informal sector, and most of those in the formal sector are underemployed. With the current measures to control COVID-19, these populations might face unprecedented difficulties to access essential services, mainly due to reduced ability of patients to support direct and indirect medical costs, and unavailability of transportation means to reach health facilities. Therefore, if not accompanied with appropriate economic and epidemiological considerations, we anticipate that these measures might result in unprecedented difficulties among vulnerable segments of society to access essential services, including antiretroviral and prophylactic drugs among people living with HIV and Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome, anti-tuberculosis drugs, and curative and preventive treatments for malaria among pregnant women and children. This might increase the propensity of patients taking substandard doses and/or medicines, which has the potential to compromise drug efficacy, and worsen health inequalities in the region. COVID-19 responses at country level should include measures to protect vulnerable and under-served segments of society.

Implementing a sustainable health insurance system in Cambodia: a study protocol for developing and validating an efficient household income-level assessment model for equitable premium collection.

BACKGROUND: As elsewhere in low- and middle-income countries, due to limited fiscal resources, universal health coverage (UHC) remains a challenge in Cambodia. Since 2016, the National Social Security Fund (NSSF) has implemented a social health insurance scheme with a contributory approach for formal sector workers. However, informal sector workers and dependents of formal sector workers are still not covered by this insurance because it is difficult to set an optimal amount of contribution for such individuals as their income levels are inestimable. The present study aims to develop and validate an efficient household income-level assessment model for Cambodia. We aim to help the country implement a financially sustainable social health insurance system in which the insured can pay contributions according to their ability. METHODS: This study will use nationally representative data collected by the Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey (CSES), covering the period from 2009 to 2019, and involving a total of 50,016 households. We will employ elastic net regression analysis, with per capita disposable income based on purchasing power parity as the dependent variable, and individual and community-level socioeconomic and demographic characteristics as independent variables. These analyses aim to create efficient income-level assessment models for health insurance contribution estimation. To fully capture socioeconomic heterogeneity, sub-group analyses will be conducted to develop separate income-level assessment models for urban and rural areas, as well as for each province. DISCUSSION: This research will help Cambodia implement a sustainable social health insurance system by collecting optimal amount of contributions from each socioeconomic group of the society. Incorporation of this approach into existing NSSF schemes will enhance the country's current efforts to prevent impoverishing health expenditure and to achieve UHC.

Trends in comparative efficacy and safety of malaria control interventions for maternal and child health outcomes in Africa: a study protocol for a Bayesian network meta-regression exploring the effect of HIV and malaria endemicity spectrum.

INTRODUCTION: Unprecedented global efforts to prevent malaria morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa have saved hundreds of thousands of lives across the continent in the last two decades. This study aims to determine how the comparative efficacy and safety of available malaria control interventions intended to improve maternal and child health outcomes have changed over time considering the varied epidemiological contexts on the continent. METHODS: We will review all randomised controlled trials that investigated malaria control interventions in pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa and were published between January 1980 and December 2018. We will subsequently use network meta-regression to estimate temporal trends in the relative and absolute efficacy and safety of Intermittent Preventive Treatments, Intermittent Screening and Treatments, Insecticide-treated bed nets, and their combinations, and predict their ranking according to their relative and absolute efficacy and safety over time. Our outcomes will include 12 maternal and 7 child mortality and morbidity outcomes, known to be associated with either malaria infection or control. We will use intention-to-treat analysis to derive our estimates and meta-regression to estimate temporal trends and the effect modification by HIV infection, malaria endemicity and Plasmodium falciparum resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, while adjusting for multiple potential confounders via propensity score calibration. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42018095138.

Impact of Per Capita Income on the Effectiveness of School-Based Health Education Programs to Promote Cervical Cancer Screening Uptake in Southern Mozambique.

CONTEXT: In the face of rising mortality rates from cervical cancer (CC) among women of reproductive age, a nationwide screening program based on visual inspection with acetic acid was introduced in Mozambique in 2009. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study is to examine the impact of per capita income on the effectiveness of school-based health education programs to promote the utilization of CC screening services. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study in 2013 involving 105 women randomly selected from households of different economic backgrounds. Marginal effect estimates derived from a logit model were used to explore the patterns in the effectiveness of school-based health education to promote CC screening uptake according to household per capita income, based on purchasing power parity. RESULTS: We found a CC screening uptake of 16.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.7%-24.6%) even though 64.6% (95% CI, 54.2%-74.1%) of women had heard of it. There are important economic differentials in the effectiveness of school-based health education to influence women's decision to receive CC screening. Among women with primary school or less, the probability of accessing CC screening services increases with increasing income (P < 0.05). However, income significantly reduces the effect that school-based health education has on the probability of screening uptake among those women with more than 7 years of educational attainment (P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: These results show that CC screening programs in resource-constrained settings need approaches tailored to different segments of women with respect to education and income to achieve equitable improvement in the levels of screening uptake.