Improving the Cost-efficiency of Preventive Chemotherapy: Impact of New Diagnostics on Stopping Decisions for Control of Schistosomiasis.

BACKGROUND: Control of schistosomiasis (SCH) relies on the regular distribution of preventive chemotherapy (PC) over many years. For the sake of sustainable SCH control, a decision must be made at some stage to scale down or stop PC. These "stopping decisions" are based on population surveys that assess whether infection levels are sufficiently low. However, the limited sensitivity of the currently used diagnostic (Kato-Katz [KK]) to detect low-intensity infections is a concern. Therefore, the use of new, more sensitive, molecular diagnostics has been proposed. METHODS: Through statistical analysis of Schistosoma mansoni egg counts collected from Burundi and a simulation study using an established transmission model for schistosomiasis, we investigated the extent to which more sensitive diagnostics can improve decision making regarding stopping or continuing PC for the control of S. mansoni. RESULTS: We found that KK-based strategies perform reasonably well for determining when to stop PC at a local scale. Use of more sensitive diagnostics leads to a marginally improved health impact (person-years lived with heavy infection) and comes at a cost of continuing PC for longer (up to around 3 years), unless the decision threshold for stopping PC is adapted upward. However, if this threshold is set too high, PC may be stopped prematurely, resulting in a rebound of infection levels and disease burden (+45% person-years of heavy infection). CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the potential value of more sensitive diagnostics lies more in the reduction of survey-related costs than in the direct health impact of improved parasite control.

How Does Treatment Coverage and Proportion Never Treated Influence the Success of Schistosoma mansoni Elimination as a Public Health Problem by 2030?

BACKGROUND: The 2030 target for schistosomiasis is elimination as a public health problem (EPHP), achieved when the prevalence of heavy-intensity infection among school-aged children (SAC) reduces to <1%. To achieve this, the new World Health Organization guidelines recommend a broader target of population to include pre-SAC and adults. However, the probability of achieving EPHP should be expected to depend on patterns in repeated uptake of mass drug administration by individuals. METHODS: We employed 2 individual-based stochastic models to evaluate the impact of school-based and community-wide treatment and calculated the number of rounds required to achieve EPHP for Schistosoma mansoni by considering various levels of the population never treated (NT). We also considered 2 age-intensity profiles, corresponding to a low and high burden of infection in adults. RESULTS: The number of rounds needed to achieve this target depends on the baseline prevalence and the coverage used. For low- and moderate-transmission areas, EPHP can be achieved within 7 years if NT ≤10% and NT <5%, respectively. In high-transmission areas, community-wide treatment with NT <1% is required to achieve EPHP. CONCLUSIONS: The higher the intensity of transmission, and the lower the treatment coverage, the lower the acceptable value of NT becomes. Using more efficacious treatment regimens would permit NT values to be marginally higher. A balance between target treatment coverage and NT values may be an adequate treatment strategy depending on the epidemiological setting, but striving to increase coverage and/or minimize NT can shorten program duration.

Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?

Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021-2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.

How Does the Proportion of Never Treatment Influence the Success of Mass Drug Administration Programs for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis?

BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration (MDA) is the cornerstone for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF). The proportion of the population that is never treated (NT) is a crucial determinant of whether this goal is achieved within reasonable time frames. METHODS: Using 2 individual-based stochastic LF transmission models, we assess the maximum permissible level of NT for which the 1% microfilaremia (mf) prevalence threshold can be achieved (with 90% probability) within 10 years under different scenarios of annual MDA coverage, drug combination and transmission setting. RESULTS: For Anopheles-transmission settings, we find that treating 80% of the eligible population annually with ivermectin + albendazole (IA) can achieve the 1% mf prevalence threshold within 10 years of annual treatment when baseline mf prevalence is 10%, as long as NT <10%. Higher proportions of NT are acceptable when more efficacious treatment regimens are used. For Culex-transmission settings with a low (5%) baseline mf prevalence and diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (DA) or ivermectin + diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (IDA) treatment, elimination can be reached if treatment coverage among eligibles is 80% or higher. For 10% baseline mf prevalence, the target can be achieved when the annual coverage is 80% and NT ≤15%. Higher infection prevalence or levels of NT would make achieving the target more difficult. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of people never treated in MDA programmes for LF can strongly influence the achievement of elimination and the impact of NT is greater in high transmission areas. This study provides a starting point for further development of criteria for the evaluation of NT.

Progress in controlling the transmission of schistosome parasites in Southern Ethiopia: the Geshiyaro Project in the Wolaita Zone.

BACKGROUND: This paper describes changes in the prevalence and intensity of schistosome parasite infections in a project integrating mass drug administration (MDA), water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH), and behavioral change interventions. METHODS: The Geshiyaro Project comprises three intervention arms. Arm 1 is subdivided into "Arm 1 pilot" (one district) and Arm 1 (four other districts), both receiving integrated community-wide MDA with intensive WaSH interventions. Arm 2 involves 17 districts with community-wide MDA interventions, while Arm 3 serves as a control with school-based MDA interventions in three districts. A total of 150 individuals, stratified by age group, were randomly selected from each of the 45 sentinel sites. Arm sizes were 584 (Arm 1 pilot), 1636 (Arm 1), 2203 (Arm 2), and 2238 (Arm 3). Statistical tests were employed to compare infection prevalence and intensity across the different arms. RESULTS: The prevalence of schistosome parasite infection ranged from 0% to 2.6% and from 1.7% to 25.7% across districts, employing the Kato-Katz (KK) and point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen (POC-CCA) diagnostics, respectively. The mean infection intensity level showed no marked difference between baseline and follow-up surveys when measured by KK, except in Arm 2 (t = 6.89, P < 0.0001). Infection prevalence decreased significantly in Arm 1 (t = 8.62, P < 0.0001), Arm 2 (t = 6.94, P < 0.0001), and Arm 3 (t = 8.83, P < 0.0001), but not in Arm 1 pilot (t = 1.69, P = 0.09) by POC-CCA, when trace was considered positive. The decrease was significant only in Arm 1 (t = 3.28, P = 0.0001) and Arm 2 (t = 7.62, P < 0.0001) when the trace was considered negative in POC-CCA. Arm 2 demonstrated a significant difference in difference (DID) compared to the control group, Arm 3, regardless of whether trace in POC-CCA was considered positive (DID = 3.9%, df = 8780, P = 0.025) or negative (DID = -5.2, df = 8780, P = 0.0004). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of schistosomiasis was low when employing the KK diagnostic but moderate in some locations by the POC-CCA diagnostic. The infection level had decreased across all arms of the Geshiyaro study at mid-term of the 7-year project, but further efforts are needed to reduce the rate of parasite transmission based on the POC-CCA diagnostic scores.

Spatial heterogeneity in mass drug administration from a longitudinal epidemiological study assessing transmission interruption of soil transmitted helminths in the Wolaita zone of southern Ethiopia (Geshiyaro Project).

OBJECTIVES: Deworming programmes of soil-transmitted helminths are generally monitored and evaluated by aggregating drug coverage and infection levels at a district level. However, heterogeneity in drug coverage at finer spatial scales means indicators may remain above thresholds for elimination as a public health problem or of transmission in some areas. This paper aims to highlight the misleading information that aggregating data at larger spatial scales can have for programme decision making. METHODS: Drug coverage data from the Geshiyaro project were compared at two spatial scales with reference to the World Health Organisation's targets. District (woreda) and village (kebele) level were compared. The association between infection levels and drug coverage was analysed by fitting a weighted least-squares function to the mean intensity of infection (eggs per gram of faeces) against drug coverage. RESULTS: The data show clearly that when the evaluation of coverage is aggregated to the district level, information on heterogeneity at a finer spatial scale is lost. Infection intensity decreases significantly (p = 0.0023) with increasing drug coverage. CONCLUSION: Aggregating data at large spatial scales can result in prematurely ceasing deworming, prompting rapid infection bounce-back. There is a strong need to define context-specific spatial scales for monitoring and evaluating intervention programmes.

Measuring heterogeneities in soil-transmitted helminth transmission and control.

The global effort over the past decade to control soil-transmitted helminths (STH) has resulted in communities with endemic infection reaching low prevalence levels suitable for the validation of elimination as a public health problem (EPHP), defined by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as <2% of infections classified as moderate or heavy intensity. The spatial scale in which this is validated is currently undefined. As the burden of STH infection decreases, the degree of aggregation of infection within individuals in a population increases. Identifying these remaining pockets of infection requires fine-scale monitoring and evaluation (M&E) programmes that are rarely implemented within current national neglected tropical disease (NTD) control. This review examines various heterogeneities that characterise the epidemiology of STH infections, and discusses their impact on control policy formulation.

Strongyloides questions-a research agenda for the future.

The Strongyloides genus of parasitic nematodes have a fascinating life cycle and biology, but are also important pathogens of people and a World Health Organization-defined neglected tropical disease. Here, a community of Strongyloides researchers have posed thirteen major questions about Strongyloides biology and infection that sets a Strongyloides research agenda for the future. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Strongyloides: omics to worm-free populations'.

Baseline soil-transmitted helminth and schistosome infection in the Geshiyaro project, Ethiopia: A unique transmission interruption project using biometric fingerprinting for longitudinal individual analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Geshiyaro project aims to assess the feasibility of interrupting transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) and schistosome (SCH) infection in the Wolaita zone of southern Ethiopia through high coverage community-wide mass drug administration (MDA), in combination with improved water, sanitation, and hygiene services and behaviour change communication delivered through the existing health care infrastructure. To accurately measure treatment coverage a population census was conducted enrolling individuals with biometric fingerprinting and barcoded ID cards. This paper details the baseline census and parasitology surveys conducted before the start of any interventions. METHODS: The census was conducted in five of the 15 Wolaita districts between October 2018 and December 2019, enrolling all consenting participants from every household. Simultaneously, a cross-sectional parasitology survey was conducted in 130 out of 361 randomly selected communities from all 15 districts, with 100 individuals across all age groups (infant to adult) per community providing stool and urine for analysis by duplicate Kato-Katz and a point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen (POC-CCA) to test for Schistosoma mansoni and STH, and microhaematuria and urine filtration for Schistosoma haematobium. Of the 130 communities, 30 were randomly selected for annual, longitudinal parasitological monitoring, with 150 randomly selected individuals from infant to adult providing two days of stool and urine samples for analysis by the same diagnostic tests per community. RESULTS: In total 97,919 households participated in the baseline census enrolling 466,071 individuals, with parasitological data obtained from 10,785 people. At baseline, 15.5% were infected with at least one STH species, with Ascaris lumbricoides (9.5%), followed by hookworm (7.2%) and Trichuris trichiura (1.8%). Substantial heterogeneity in STH prevalence was observed between communities ranging from 0% to 61% where most infections were low intensity. Schistosoma mansoni infection was the dominant schistosome infection (0.85% by Kato-Katz and 13.3% by POC-CCA trace negative and 21.5% trace positive), with few Schistosoma haematobium infections identified (2.77% haematuria positive and 0.13% positive by urine filtration). CONCLUSIONS: While the national control program in Ethiopia has made good progress in reducing prevalence of STH and SCH in Wolaita since it was launched in 2015, there remain areas of persistent infection suggesting the existence of environmental or behavioural risk factors that contribute to ongoing transmission. This project aims to identify the most efficient intervention strategies to reduce community burden and reach interruption of transmission.

Community-wide versus school-based targeted deworming for soil-transmitted helminth control in school-aged children in Vietnam: the CoDe-STH cluster-randomised controlled trial.

Background: Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infection control programs typically consist of school-based preventive chemotherapy (PC) targeted to school-aged children. STH reservoirs in untreated community members contribute to ongoing transmission in children. The CoDe-STH (Community Deworming against STH) trial, conducted in Dak Lak province, Vietnam, between October 2019 and November 2020, aimed to determine whether community-wide mass drug administration (MDA) is more effective than school-based targeted PC in reducing STH prevalence and intensity in children. Methods: In this two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial, 64 primary schools were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive either school-based targeted PC ("school arm") or community-wide MDA ("community arm"). A single dose of albendazole 400 mg was used for deworming. The primary outcome was hookworm prevalence in schoolchildren, measured using quantitative real-time PCR. We also measured infection intensity for Necator americanus only, using qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) values converted into eggs per gram of faeces (EPG). Analysis was by intention to treat. The trial was registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12619000309189). Findings: The analysis included 4955 children in the school arm and 5093 children in the community arm. N. americanus was the dominant STH species. The relative reduction in hookworm prevalence was not significantly different between the school arm (30.1%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 20.5-36.9) and the community arm (34.6%, 95% CI 19.9-49.4). Due to lower baseline prevalence than expected, the study was underpowered to detect a difference in prevalence reduction between the study arms. The community arm showed significantly greater relative reduction in N. americanus infection intensity (56.0%, 95% CI 39.9-72.1) compared to the school arm (3.4%, 95% CI -24.7 to 31.4). The community arm also showed greater relative reduction in prevalence of moderate-to-heavy intensity (≥2000 EPG) N. americanus infections (81.1%; 95% CI 69.7-92.6) compared to the school arm (39.0%, 95% CI 13.7-64.2). Interpretation: Although no impact was seen on overall prevalence, community-wide MDA was more effective in lowering N. americanus infection intensity in schoolchildren compared to school-based targeted PC, measured 12 months after one round of albendazole deworming with high coverage. Funding: National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia (APP1139561).

Introduction to the special issue: challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs.

Twenty neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are currently prioritised by the World Health Organization for eradication, elimination as a public health problem, elimination of transmission or control by 2030. This issue celebrates progress made since the 2012 London Declaration on NTDs and discusses challenges currently faced to achieve these goals. It comprises 14 contributions spanning NTDs tackled by intensified disease management to those addressed by preventive chemotherapy. Although COVID-19 negatively affected NTD programmes, it also served to spur new multisectoral approaches to strengthen school-based health systems. The issue highlights the needs to improve impact survey design, evaluate new diagnostics, understand the consequences of heterogeneous prevalence and human movement, the potential impact of alternative treatment strategies and the importance of zoonotic transmission. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

How important is the spatial movement of people in attempts to eliminate the transmission of human helminth infections by mass drug administration?

Human mobility contributes to the spatial dynamics of many infectious diseases, and understanding these dynamics helps us to determine the most effective ways to intervene and plan surveillance. In this paper, we describe a novel transmission model for the spatial dynamics of hookworm, a parasitic worm which is a common infection across sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and the Pacific islands. We fit our model, with and without mobility, to data obtained from a sub-county in Kenya, and validate the model's predictions against the decline in prevalence observed over the course of a clustered randomized control trial evaluating methods of administering mass chemotherapy. We find that our model which incorporates human mobility is able to reproduce the observed patterns in decline of prevalence during the TUMIKIA trial, and additionally, that the widespread bounce-back of infection may be possible over many years, depending on the rates of people movement between villages. The results have important implications for the design of mass chemotherapy programmes for the elimination of human helminth transmission. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Individual longitudinal compliance to neglected tropical disease mass drug administration programmes, a systematic review.

Repeated distribution of preventative chemotherapy (PC) by mass drug administration forms the mainstay of transmission control for five of the 20 recognised neglected tropical diseases (NTDs); soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. The efficiency of such programmes is reliant upon participants swallowing the offered treatment consistently at each round. This is measured by compliance, defined as the proportion of eligible participants swallowing treatment. Individually linked longitudinal compliance data is important for assessing the potential impact of MDA-based control programmes, yet this accurate monitoring is rarely implemented in those for NTDs. Longitudinal compliance data reported by control programmes globally for the five (PC)-NTDs since 2016 is examined, focusing on key associations of compliance with age and gender. PubMed and Web of Science was searched in January 2022 for articles written in English and Spanish, and the subsequent extraction adhered to PRISMA guidelines. Study title screening was aided by Rayyan, a machine learning software package. Studies were considered for inclusion if primary compliance data was recorded for more than one time point, in a population larger than 100 participants. All data analysis was conducted in R. A total of 89 studies were identified containing compliance data, 57 were longitudinal studies, of which 25 reported individually linked data reported by varying methods. The association of increasing age with the degree of systematic treatment was commonly reported. The review is limited by the paucity of data published on this topic. The varying and overlapping terminologies used to describe coverage (receiving treatment) and compliance (swallowing treatment) is reviewed. Consequently, it is recommended that WHO considers clearly defining the terms for coverage, compliance, and longitudinal compliance which are currently contradictory across their NTD treatment guidelines. This review is registered with PROSPERO (number: CRD42022301991).

Epidemiology of soil-transmitted helminths using quantitative PCR and risk factors for hookworm and Necator americanus infection in school children in Dak Lak province, Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infection is driven by a complex interaction of demographic, socioeconomic and behavioural factors, including those related to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). Epidemiological studies that measure both infection and potential risk factors associated with infection help to understand the drivers of transmission in a population and therefore can provide information to optimise STH control programmes. METHODS: During October and November 2019, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of the prevalence and intensity of STH infection and associated risk factors among 7710 primary-school-age children from 64 primary schools across 13 districts in Dak Lak province, Vietnam. Quantitative PCR (qPCR) was used to detect and quantify STH infections. RESULTS: The predominant STH species was the hookworm Necator americanus (overall cluster-adjusted prevalence of 13.7%), and its prevalence was heterogeneously distributed across surveyed schools (0% to 56.3%). All other STH species had a prevalence of less than 1%. Using mixed-effects logistic regression, we found that the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was significantly higher for both infection and moderate-to-heavy-intensity infection with N. americanus among children from multiple ethnic minority groups, compared to children from the majority group (Kinh). Adjusted odds of infection with N. americanus were also higher in children who reported practising open defecation at school (aOR 1.42, 95% CI 1.05, 1.93, P = 0.02) and in those who had an unimproved household water supply (aOR 1.28, 95% CI 1.04, 1.57, P = 0.02). Conversely, children with a flushing household toilet had a reduced risk of infection (aOR 0.58, 95% CI 0.47, 0.70, P < 0.01), as did those whose primary female carer attended secondary (aOR 0.65, 95% CI 0.51, 0.84, P < 0.01) or tertiary education (aOR 0.39, 95% CI 0.24, 0.63, P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: This study is the largest reported prevalence survey of STH infections conducted using qPCR as a diagnostic technique. The findings of higher adjusted odds of infection amongst ethnic minority children highlight that STH control programmes may not be reaching certain population groups and that additional culturally appropriate approaches may be required. Additionally, the associations between specific WASH factors and infection indicate potential programmatic targets to complement preventive chemotherapy programmes.

Overestimation of school-based deworming coverage resulting from school-based reporting.

BACKGROUND: Soil Transmitted Helminths (STH) infect over 1.5 billion people globally and are associated with anemia and stunting, resulting in an annual toll of 1.9 million Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). School-based deworming (SBD), via mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns with albendazole or mebendazole, has been recommended by the World Health Organization to reduce levels of morbidity due to STH in endemic areas. DeWorm3 is a cluster-randomized trial, conducted in three study sites in Benin, India, and Malawi, designed to assess the feasibility of interrupting STH transmission with community-wide MDA as a potential strategy to replace SBD. This analysis examines data from the DeWorm3 trial to quantify discrepancies between school-level reporting of SBD and gold standard individual-level survey reporting of SBD. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Population-weighted averages of school-level SBD calculated at the cluster level were compared to aggregated individual-level SBD estimates to produce a Mean Squared Error (MSE) estimate for each study site. In order to estimate individual-level SBD coverage, these MSE values were applied to SBD estimates from the control arm of the DeWorm3 trial, where only school-level reporting of SBD coverage had been collected. In each study site, SBD coverage in the school-level datasets was substantially higher than that obtained from individual-level datasets, indicating possible overestimation of school-level SBD coverage. When applying observed MSE to project expected coverages in the control arm, SBD coverage dropped from 89.1% to 70.5% (p-value < 0.001) in Benin, from 97.7% to 84.5% (p-value < 0.001) in India, and from 41.5% to 37.5% (p-value < 0.001) in Malawi. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These estimates indicate that school-level SBD reporting is likely to significantly overestimate program coverage. These findings suggest that current SBD coverage estimates derived from school-based program data may substantially overestimate true pediatric deworming coverage within targeted communities. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03014167.

Predisposition to soil-transmitted helminth reinfection after four rounds of mass drug administration: results from a longitudinal cohort in the Geshiyaro project, a transmission elimination feasibility study in the Wolaita zone of southern Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Current WHO strategies for reaching soil-transmitted helminths (STH) elimination as a public health problem excludes treating certain adult populations in endemic areas, creating infection reservoirs that drive 'bounce back' of STH infection to pretreatment levels post-mass drug administration (MDA). Predisposition is a widespread, but poorly understood phenomena among helminth infections where individuals are predisposed to reinfection after repeated treatments. METHODS: This analysis uses Geshiyaro project data, an STH control programme exploring transmission interruption by community-wide MDA and enhanced water, sanitation and hygiene during 2019-2023. Parasitological survey data from longitudinal cohorts are analysed using Kendall's Tau-b rank correlation to assess the evidence for predisposition to light or heavy infection between four consecutive rounds of MDA. RESULTS: Correlation analyses revealed the strongest evidence for predisposition to heavy or light Ascaris lumbricoides infection was between survey 1 and 2 (Tau-b 0.29; p<0.001). Overall patterns were not observed for Trichuris trichiura or hookworm infections, however, some significant and notable correlations were recorded for some stratifications and time points. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence for predisposition in endemic settings in southern Ethiopia with low STH prevalence suggests that more targeted approaches to MDA in those predisposed to infection may be a sensible control strategy if cheap, point of care diagnostics are available.

SARS-CoV-2 elicits non-sterilizing immunity and evades vaccine-induced immunity: implications for future vaccination strategies.

Neither vaccination nor natural infection result in long-lasting protection against SARS-COV-2 infection and transmission, but both reduce the risk of severe COVID-19. To generate insights into optimal vaccination strategies for prevention of severe COVID-19 in the population, we extended a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) mathematical model to compare the impact of vaccines that are highly protective against severe COVID-19 but not against infection and transmission, with those that block SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our analysis shows that vaccination strategies focusing on the prevention of severe COVID-19 are more effective than those focusing on creating of herd immunity. Key uncertainties that would affect the choice of vaccination strategies are: (1) the duration of protection against severe disease, (2) the protection against severe disease from variants that escape vaccine-induced immunity, (3) the incidence of long-COVID and level of protection provided by the vaccine, and (4) the rate of serious adverse events following vaccination, stratified by demographic variables.