How Does the Proportion of Never Treatment Influence the Success of Mass Drug Administration Programs for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis?

BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration (MDA) is the cornerstone for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF). The proportion of the population that is never treated (NT) is a crucial determinant of whether this goal is achieved within reasonable time frames. METHODS: Using 2 individual-based stochastic LF transmission models, we assess the maximum permissible level of NT for which the 1% microfilaremia (mf) prevalence threshold can be achieved (with 90% probability) within 10 years under different scenarios of annual MDA coverage, drug combination and transmission setting. RESULTS: For Anopheles-transmission settings, we find that treating 80% of the eligible population annually with ivermectin + albendazole (IA) can achieve the 1% mf prevalence threshold within 10 years of annual treatment when baseline mf prevalence is 10%, as long as NT <10%. Higher proportions of NT are acceptable when more efficacious treatment regimens are used. For Culex-transmission settings with a low (5%) baseline mf prevalence and diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (DA) or ivermectin + diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (IDA) treatment, elimination can be reached if treatment coverage among eligibles is 80% or higher. For 10% baseline mf prevalence, the target can be achieved when the annual coverage is 80% and NT ≤15%. Higher infection prevalence or levels of NT would make achieving the target more difficult. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of people never treated in MDA programmes for LF can strongly influence the achievement of elimination and the impact of NT is greater in high transmission areas. This study provides a starting point for further development of criteria for the evaluation of NT.

Improving the Cost-efficiency of Preventive Chemotherapy: Impact of New Diagnostics on Stopping Decisions for Control of Schistosomiasis.

BACKGROUND: Control of schistosomiasis (SCH) relies on the regular distribution of preventive chemotherapy (PC) over many years. For the sake of sustainable SCH control, a decision must be made at some stage to scale down or stop PC. These "stopping decisions" are based on population surveys that assess whether infection levels are sufficiently low. However, the limited sensitivity of the currently used diagnostic (Kato-Katz [KK]) to detect low-intensity infections is a concern. Therefore, the use of new, more sensitive, molecular diagnostics has been proposed. METHODS: Through statistical analysis of Schistosoma mansoni egg counts collected from Burundi and a simulation study using an established transmission model for schistosomiasis, we investigated the extent to which more sensitive diagnostics can improve decision making regarding stopping or continuing PC for the control of S. mansoni. RESULTS: We found that KK-based strategies perform reasonably well for determining when to stop PC at a local scale. Use of more sensitive diagnostics leads to a marginally improved health impact (person-years lived with heavy infection) and comes at a cost of continuing PC for longer (up to around 3 years), unless the decision threshold for stopping PC is adapted upward. However, if this threshold is set too high, PC may be stopped prematurely, resulting in a rebound of infection levels and disease burden (+45% person-years of heavy infection). CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the potential value of more sensitive diagnostics lies more in the reduction of survey-related costs than in the direct health impact of improved parasite control.

How Does Treatment Coverage and Proportion Never Treated Influence the Success of Schistosoma mansoni Elimination as a Public Health Problem by 2030?

BACKGROUND: The 2030 target for schistosomiasis is elimination as a public health problem (EPHP), achieved when the prevalence of heavy-intensity infection among school-aged children (SAC) reduces to <1%. To achieve this, the new World Health Organization guidelines recommend a broader target of population to include pre-SAC and adults. However, the probability of achieving EPHP should be expected to depend on patterns in repeated uptake of mass drug administration by individuals. METHODS: We employed 2 individual-based stochastic models to evaluate the impact of school-based and community-wide treatment and calculated the number of rounds required to achieve EPHP for Schistosoma mansoni by considering various levels of the population never treated (NT). We also considered 2 age-intensity profiles, corresponding to a low and high burden of infection in adults. RESULTS: The number of rounds needed to achieve this target depends on the baseline prevalence and the coverage used. For low- and moderate-transmission areas, EPHP can be achieved within 7 years if NT ≤10% and NT <5%, respectively. In high-transmission areas, community-wide treatment with NT <1% is required to achieve EPHP. CONCLUSIONS: The higher the intensity of transmission, and the lower the treatment coverage, the lower the acceptable value of NT becomes. Using more efficacious treatment regimens would permit NT values to be marginally higher. A balance between target treatment coverage and NT values may be an adequate treatment strategy depending on the epidemiological setting, but striving to increase coverage and/or minimize NT can shorten program duration.

Measuring heterogeneities in soil-transmitted helminth transmission and control.

The global effort over the past decade to control soil-transmitted helminths (STH) has resulted in communities with endemic infection reaching low prevalence levels suitable for the validation of elimination as a public health problem (EPHP), defined by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as <2% of infections classified as moderate or heavy intensity. The spatial scale in which this is validated is currently undefined. As the burden of STH infection decreases, the degree of aggregation of infection within individuals in a population increases. Identifying these remaining pockets of infection requires fine-scale monitoring and evaluation (M&E) programmes that are rarely implemented within current national neglected tropical disease (NTD) control. This review examines various heterogeneities that characterise the epidemiology of STH infections, and discusses their impact on control policy formulation.

Community-wide versus school-based targeted deworming for soil-transmitted helminth control in school-aged children in Vietnam: the CoDe-STH cluster-randomised controlled trial.

Background: Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infection control programs typically consist of school-based preventive chemotherapy (PC) targeted to school-aged children. STH reservoirs in untreated community members contribute to ongoing transmission in children. The CoDe-STH (Community Deworming against STH) trial, conducted in Dak Lak province, Vietnam, between October 2019 and November 2020, aimed to determine whether community-wide mass drug administration (MDA) is more effective than school-based targeted PC in reducing STH prevalence and intensity in children. Methods: In this two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial, 64 primary schools were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive either school-based targeted PC ("school arm") or community-wide MDA ("community arm"). A single dose of albendazole 400 mg was used for deworming. The primary outcome was hookworm prevalence in schoolchildren, measured using quantitative real-time PCR. We also measured infection intensity for Necator americanus only, using qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) values converted into eggs per gram of faeces (EPG). Analysis was by intention to treat. The trial was registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12619000309189). Findings: The analysis included 4955 children in the school arm and 5093 children in the community arm. N. americanus was the dominant STH species. The relative reduction in hookworm prevalence was not significantly different between the school arm (30.1%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 20.5-36.9) and the community arm (34.6%, 95% CI 19.9-49.4). Due to lower baseline prevalence than expected, the study was underpowered to detect a difference in prevalence reduction between the study arms. The community arm showed significantly greater relative reduction in N. americanus infection intensity (56.0%, 95% CI 39.9-72.1) compared to the school arm (3.4%, 95% CI -24.7 to 31.4). The community arm also showed greater relative reduction in prevalence of moderate-to-heavy intensity (≥2000 EPG) N. americanus infections (81.1%; 95% CI 69.7-92.6) compared to the school arm (39.0%, 95% CI 13.7-64.2). Interpretation: Although no impact was seen on overall prevalence, community-wide MDA was more effective in lowering N. americanus infection intensity in schoolchildren compared to school-based targeted PC, measured 12 months after one round of albendazole deworming with high coverage. Funding: National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia (APP1139561).

Introduction to the special issue: challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs.

Twenty neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are currently prioritised by the World Health Organization for eradication, elimination as a public health problem, elimination of transmission or control by 2030. This issue celebrates progress made since the 2012 London Declaration on NTDs and discusses challenges currently faced to achieve these goals. It comprises 14 contributions spanning NTDs tackled by intensified disease management to those addressed by preventive chemotherapy. Although COVID-19 negatively affected NTD programmes, it also served to spur new multisectoral approaches to strengthen school-based health systems. The issue highlights the needs to improve impact survey design, evaluate new diagnostics, understand the consequences of heterogeneous prevalence and human movement, the potential impact of alternative treatment strategies and the importance of zoonotic transmission. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

How important is the spatial movement of people in attempts to eliminate the transmission of human helminth infections by mass drug administration?

Human mobility contributes to the spatial dynamics of many infectious diseases, and understanding these dynamics helps us to determine the most effective ways to intervene and plan surveillance. In this paper, we describe a novel transmission model for the spatial dynamics of hookworm, a parasitic worm which is a common infection across sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and the Pacific islands. We fit our model, with and without mobility, to data obtained from a sub-county in Kenya, and validate the model's predictions against the decline in prevalence observed over the course of a clustered randomized control trial evaluating methods of administering mass chemotherapy. We find that our model which incorporates human mobility is able to reproduce the observed patterns in decline of prevalence during the TUMIKIA trial, and additionally, that the widespread bounce-back of infection may be possible over many years, depending on the rates of people movement between villages. The results have important implications for the design of mass chemotherapy programmes for the elimination of human helminth transmission. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Epidemiology of soil-transmitted helminths using quantitative PCR and risk factors for hookworm and Necator americanus infection in school children in Dak Lak province, Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infection is driven by a complex interaction of demographic, socioeconomic and behavioural factors, including those related to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). Epidemiological studies that measure both infection and potential risk factors associated with infection help to understand the drivers of transmission in a population and therefore can provide information to optimise STH control programmes. METHODS: During October and November 2019, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of the prevalence and intensity of STH infection and associated risk factors among 7710 primary-school-age children from 64 primary schools across 13 districts in Dak Lak province, Vietnam. Quantitative PCR (qPCR) was used to detect and quantify STH infections. RESULTS: The predominant STH species was the hookworm Necator americanus (overall cluster-adjusted prevalence of 13.7%), and its prevalence was heterogeneously distributed across surveyed schools (0% to 56.3%). All other STH species had a prevalence of less than 1%. Using mixed-effects logistic regression, we found that the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was significantly higher for both infection and moderate-to-heavy-intensity infection with N. americanus among children from multiple ethnic minority groups, compared to children from the majority group (Kinh). Adjusted odds of infection with N. americanus were also higher in children who reported practising open defecation at school (aOR 1.42, 95% CI 1.05, 1.93, P = 0.02) and in those who had an unimproved household water supply (aOR 1.28, 95% CI 1.04, 1.57, P = 0.02). Conversely, children with a flushing household toilet had a reduced risk of infection (aOR 0.58, 95% CI 0.47, 0.70, P < 0.01), as did those whose primary female carer attended secondary (aOR 0.65, 95% CI 0.51, 0.84, P < 0.01) or tertiary education (aOR 0.39, 95% CI 0.24, 0.63, P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: This study is the largest reported prevalence survey of STH infections conducted using qPCR as a diagnostic technique. The findings of higher adjusted odds of infection amongst ethnic minority children highlight that STH control programmes may not be reaching certain population groups and that additional culturally appropriate approaches may be required. Additionally, the associations between specific WASH factors and infection indicate potential programmatic targets to complement preventive chemotherapy programmes.

SARS-CoV-2 elicits non-sterilizing immunity and evades vaccine-induced immunity: implications for future vaccination strategies.

Neither vaccination nor natural infection result in long-lasting protection against SARS-COV-2 infection and transmission, but both reduce the risk of severe COVID-19. To generate insights into optimal vaccination strategies for prevention of severe COVID-19 in the population, we extended a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) mathematical model to compare the impact of vaccines that are highly protective against severe COVID-19 but not against infection and transmission, with those that block SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our analysis shows that vaccination strategies focusing on the prevention of severe COVID-19 are more effective than those focusing on creating of herd immunity. Key uncertainties that would affect the choice of vaccination strategies are: (1) the duration of protection against severe disease, (2) the protection against severe disease from variants that escape vaccine-induced immunity, (3) the incidence of long-COVID and level of protection provided by the vaccine, and (4) the rate of serious adverse events following vaccination, stratified by demographic variables.

Responding to the cuts in UK AID to neglected tropical diseases control programmes in Africa.

The early termination of the Accelerating the Sustainable Control and Elimination of Neglected Tropical Diseases (Ascend) programme by the UK government in June 2021 was a bitter blow to countries in East and West Africa where no alternative source of funding existed. Here we assess the potential impact the cuts may have had if alternative funding had not been made available by new development partners and outline new strategies developed by affected countries to mitigate current and future disruptions to neglected tropical disease control programmes.

Exploring the Role of Antiviral Nasal Sprays in the Control of Emerging Respiratory Infections in the Community.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that there is an unmet need for the development of novel prophylactic antiviral treatments to control the outbreak of emerging respiratory virus infections. Passive antibody-based immunisation approaches such as intranasal antibody prophylaxis have the potential to provide immediately accessible universal protection as they act directly at the most common route of viral entry, the upper respiratory tract. The need for such products is very apparent for SARS-CoV-2 at present, given the relatively low effectiveness of vaccines to prevent infection and block virus onward transmission. We explore the benefits and challenges of the use of antibody-based nasal sprays prior and post exposure to the virus. METHODS: The classic susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) mathematical model was extended to describe the potential population-level impact of intranasal antibody prophylaxis on controlling the spread of an emerging respiratory infection in the community. RESULTS: Intranasal administration of monoclonal antibodies provides only a short-term protection to the mucosal surface. Consequently, sustained intranasal antibody prophylaxis of a substantial proportion of the population would be needed to contain infections. Post-exposure prophylaxis against the development of severe disease would be essential for the overall reduction in hospital admissions. CONCLUSION: Antibody-based nasal sprays could provide protection against infection to individuals that are likely to be exposed to the virus. Large-scale administration for a long period of time would be challenging. Intranasal antibody prophylaxis alone cannot prevent community-wide transmission of the virus. It could be used along with other protective measures, such as non-pharmaceutical interventions, to bridge the time required to develop and produce effective vaccines, and complement active immunisation strategies.

A prevalence-based transmission model for the study of the epidemiology and control of soil-transmitted helminthiasis.

Much effort has been devoted by the World Health Organization (WHO) to eliminate soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections by 2030 using mass drug administration targeted at particular risk groups alongside the availability to access water, sanitation and hygiene services. The targets set by the WHO for the control of helminth infections are typically defined in terms of the prevalence of infection, whereas the standard formulation of STH transmission models typically describe dynamic changes in the mean-worm burden. We develop a prevalence-based deterministic model to investigate the transmission dynamics of soil-transmitted helminthiasis in humans, subject to continuous exposure to infection over time. We analytically determine local stability criteria for all equilibria and find bifurcation points. Our model predicts that STH infection will either be eliminated (if the initial prevalence value, y(0), is sufficiently small) or remain endemic (if y(0) is sufficiently large), with the two stable points of endemic infection and parasite eradication separated by a transmission breakpoint. Two special cases of the model are analysed: (1) the distribution of the STH parasites in the host population is highly aggregated following a negative binomial distribution, and (2) no density-dependent effects act on the parasite population. We find that disease extinction is always possible for Case (1), but it is not so for Case (2) if y(0) is sufficiently large. However, by introducing stochastic perturbation into the deterministic model, we discover that chance effects can lead to outcomes not predicted by the deterministic model alone, with outcomes highly dependent on the degree of worm clumping, k. Specifically, we show that if the reproduction number and clumping are sufficiently bounded, then stochasticity will cause the parasite to die out. It follows that control of soil-transmitted helminths will be more difficult if the worm distribution tends towards clumping.

The observed relationship between the degree of parasite aggregation and the prevalence of infection within human host populations for soil-transmitted helminth and schistosome infections.

BACKGROUND: Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) and schistosome parasites are highly aggregated within the human population. The probability distribution of worms per person is described well by the negative binomial probability distribution with aggregation parameter, k, which varies inversely with parasite clustering. The relationship between k and prevalence in defined populations subject to mass drug administration is not well understood. METHODS AND RESULTS: We use statistical methods to estimate k using two large independent datasets for STH and schistosome infections from India and Niger, respectively, both of which demonstrate increased aggregation of parasites in a few hosts, as the prevalence of infections declines across the dataset. CONCLUSIONS: A greater attention needs to be given in monitoring and evaluation programmes to find and treat the remaining aggregates of parasites.

Determining the optimal strategies to achieve elimination of transmission for Schistosoma mansoni.

BACKGROUND: In January 2021, the World Health Organization published the 2021-2030 roadmap for the control of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). The goal for schistosomiasis is to achieve elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) and elimination of transmission (EOT) in 78 and 25 countries (by 2030), respectively. Mass drug administration (MDA) of praziquantel continues to be the main strategy for control and elimination. However, as there is limited availability of praziquantel, it is important to determine what volume of treatments are required, who should be targeted and how frequently treatment must be administered to eliminate either transmission or morbidity caused by infection in different endemic settings with varied transmission intensities. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this paper, we employ two individual-based stochastic models of schistosomiasis transmission developed independently by the Imperial College London (ICL) and University of Oxford (SCHISTOX) to determine the optimal treatment strategies to achieve EOT. We find that treating school-age children (SAC) only is not sufficient to achieve EOT within a feasible time frame, regardless of the transmission setting and observed age-intensity of infection profile. Both models show that community-wide treatment is necessary to interrupt transmission in all endemic settings with low, medium and high pristine transmission intensities. CONCLUSIONS: The required MDA coverage level to achieve either transmission or morbidity elimination depends on the prevalence prior to the start of treatment and the burden of infection in adults. The higher the worm burden in adults, the higher the coverage levels required for this age category through community-wide treatment programmes. Therefore, it is important that intensity and prevalence data are collected in each age category, particularly from SAC and adults, so that the correct coverage level can be calculated and administered.

Genome-wide insights into adaptive hybridisation across the Schistosoma haematobium group in West and Central Africa.

Schistosomiasis remains a public health concern across sub-Saharan Africa; current control programmes rely on accurate mapping and high mass drug administration (MDA) coverage to attempt disease elimination. Inter-species hybridisation can occur between certain species, changing epidemiological dynamics within endemic regions, which has the potential to confound control interventions. The impact of hybridisation on disease dynamics is well illustrated in areas of Cameroon where urogenital schistosomiasis, primarily due to Schistosoma haematobium and hybrid infections, now predominate over intestinal schistosomiasis caused by Schistosoma guineensis. Genetic markers have shown the ability to identify hybrids, however the underlying genomic architecture of divergence and introgression between these species has yet to be established. In this study, restriction site associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) was used on archived adult worms initially identified as; Schistosoma bovis (n = 4), S. haematobium (n = 9), S. guineensis (n = 3) and S. guineensis x S. haematobium hybrids (n = 4) from Mali, Senegal, Niger, São Tomé and Cameroon. Genome-wide evidence supports the existence of S. guineensis and S. haematobium hybrid populations across Cameroon. The hybridisation of S. guineensis x S. haematobium has not been demonstrated on the island of São Tomé, where all samples showed no introgression with S. haematobium. Additionally, all S. haematobium isolates from Nigeria, Mali and Cameroon indicated signatures of genomic introgression from S. bovis. Adaptive loci across the S. haematobium group showed that voltage-gated calcium ion channels (Cav) could play a key role in the ability to increase the survivability of species, particularly in host systems. Where admixture has occurred between S. guineensis and S. haematobium, the excess introgressive influx of tegumental (outer helminth body) and antigenic genes from S. haematobium has increased the adaptive response in hybrids, leading to increased hybrid population fitness and viability.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: remaining uncertainties in our understanding of the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the virus, and challenges to be overcome.

Great progress has been made over the past 18 months in scientific understanding of the biology, epidemiology and pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2. Extraordinary advances have been made in vaccine development and the execution of clinical trials of possible therapies. However, uncertainties remain, and this review assesses these in the context of virus transmission, epidemiology, control by social distancing measures and mass vaccination and the effect on all of these on emerging variants. We briefly review the current state of the global pandemic, focussing on what is, and what is not, well understood about the parameters that control viral transmission and make up the constituent parts of the basic reproductive number R 0. Major areas of uncertainty include factors predisposing to asymptomatic infection, the population fraction that is asymptomatic, the infectiousness of asymptomatic compared to symptomatic individuals, the contribution of viral transmission of such individuals and what variables influence this. The duration of immunity post infection and post vaccination is also currently unknown, as is the phenotypic consequences of continual viral evolution and the emergence of many viral variants not just in one location, but globally, given the high connectivity between populations in the modern world. The pattern of spread of new variants is also examined. We review what can be learnt from contact tracing, household studies and whole-genome sequencing, regarding where people acquire infection, and how households are seeded with infection since they constitute a major location for viral transmission. We conclude by discussing the challenges to attaining herd immunity, given the uncertainty in the duration of vaccine-mediated immunity, the threat of continued evolution of the virus as demonstrated by the emergence and rapid spread of the Delta variant, and the logistics of vaccine manufacturing and delivery to achieve universal coverage worldwide. Significantly more support from higher income countries (HIC) is required in low- and middle-income countries over the coming year to ensure the creation of community-wide protection by mass vaccination is a global target, not one just for HIC. Unvaccinated populations create opportunities for viral evolution since the net rate of evolution is directly proportional to the number of cases occurring per unit of time. The unit for assessing success in achieving herd immunity is not any individual country, but the world.

What is the impact of acquired immunity on the transmission of schistosomiasis and the efficacy of current and planned mass drug administration programmes?

Schistosomiasis causes severe morbidity in many countries with endemic infection with the schistosome digenean parasites in Africa and Asia. To control and eliminate the disease resulting from infection, regular mass drug administration (MDA) is used, with a focus on school-aged children (SAC; 5-14 years of age). In some high transmission settings, the World Health Organization (WHO) also recommends the inclusion of at-risk adults in MDA treatment programmes. The question of whether ecology (age-dependant exposure) or immunity (resistance to reinfection), or some combination of both, determines the form of observed convex age-intensity profile is still unresolved, but there is a growing body of evidence that the human hosts acquire some partial level of immunity after a long period of repeated exposure to infection. In the majority of past research modelling schistosome transmission and the impact of MDA programmes, the effect of acquired immunity has not been taken into account. Past work has been based on the assumption that age-related contact rates generate convex horizontal age-intensity profiles. In this paper, we use an individual based stochastic model of transmission and MDA impact to explore the effect of acquired immunity in defined MDA programmes. Compared with scenarios with no immunity, we find that acquired immunity makes the MDA programme less effective with a slower decrease in the prevalence of infection. Therefore, the time to achieve morbidity control and elimination as a public health problem is longer than predicted by models with just age-related exposure and no build-up of immunity. The level of impact depends on the baseline prevalence prior to treatment (the magnitude of the basic reproductive number R0) and the treatment frequency, among other factors. We find that immunity has a larger impact within moderate to high transmission settings such that it is very unlikely to achieve morbidity and transmission control employing current MDA programmes.

Does infection with or vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 lead to lasting immunity?

Many nations are pursuing the rollout of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines as an exit strategy from unprecedented COVID-19-related restrictions. However, the success of this strategy relies critically on the duration of protective immunity resulting from both natural infection and vaccination. SARS-CoV-2 infection elicits an adaptive immune response against a large breadth of viral epitopes, although the duration of the response varies with age and disease severity. Current evidence from case studies and large observational studies suggests that, consistent with research on other common respiratory viruses, a protective immunological response lasts for approximately 5-12 months from primary infection, with reinfection being more likely given an insufficiently robust primary humoral response. Markers of humoral and cell-mediated immune memory can persist over many months, and might help to mitigate against severe disease upon reinfection. Emerging data, including evidence of breakthrough infections, suggest that vaccine effectiveness might be reduced significantly against emerging variants of concern, and hence secondary vaccines will need to be developed to maintain population-level protective immunity. Nonetheless, other interventions will also be required, with further outbreaks likely to occur due to antigenic drift, selective pressures for novel variants, and global population mobility.

Modelling the ability of mass drug administration to interrupt soil-transmitted helminth transmission: Community-based deworming in Kenya as a case study.

The World Health Organization has recommended the application of mass drug administration (MDA) in treating high prevalence neglected tropical diseases such as soil-transmitted helminths (STHs), schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. MDA-which is safe, effective and inexpensive-has been widely applied to eliminate or interrupt the transmission of STHs in particular and has been offered to people in endemic regions without requiring individual diagnosis. We propose two mathematical models to investigate the impact of MDA on the mean number of worms in both treated and untreated human subpopulations. By varying the efficay of drugs, initial conditions of the models, coverage and frequency of MDA (both annual and biannual), we examine the dynamic behaviour of both models and the possibility of interruption of transmission. Both models predict that the interruption of transmission is possible if the drug efficacy is sufficiently high, but STH infection remains endemic if the drug efficacy is sufficiently low. In between these two critical values, the two models produce different predictions. By applying an additional round of biannual and annual MDA, we find that interruption of transmission is likely to happen in both cases with lower drug efficacy. In order to interrupt the transmission of STH or eliminate the infection efficiently and effectively, it is crucial to identify the appropriate efficacy of drug, coverage, frequency, timing and number of rounds of MDA.