Dynamics of Mpox infection in Nigeria: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

The seasonal outbreaks of Mpox continue in most parts of West and Central Africa. In the past year, Nigeria had the highest number of reported cases. Here, we used the PRISMA guidelines to carry out a systematic review and meta-analysis of available evidence on Mpox in Nigeria to assess the prevalence, transmission pattern, diagnostic approach, and other associated factors useful for mitigating the transmission of the disease. All relevant observational studies in PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, AJOL, Web of Science, Scopus and Google Scholar on Mpox in Nigeria were assessed within the last fifty years (1972 to 2022). In all, 92 relevant articles were retrieved, out of which 23 were included in the final qualitative analysis. Notably, most of the cases of Mpox in Nigeria were from the southern part of the country. Our findings showed a progressive spread from the southern to the northern region of the country. We identified the following factors as important in the transmission of Mpox in Nigeria; poverty, lack of basic healthcare facilities, and risk of exposure through unsafe sexual practices. Our findings reiterate the need to strengthen and expand existing efforts as well as establish robust multi-sectoral collaboration to understand the dynamics of Mpox Nigeria.

Spatio-temporal spread of Lassa virus and a new rodent host in the Mano River Union area, West Africa.

The spread of Lassa virus (LASV) in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, which together are named the Mano River Union (MRU) area, was examined phylogeographically. To provide a reliable evolutionary scenario, new rodent-derived, whole LASV sequences were included. These were generated by metatranscriptomic next-generation sequencing from rodents sampled between 2003 and 2020 in 21 localities of Guinea and Sierra Leone. An analysis was performed using BEAST to perform continuous phylogeographic inference and EvoLaps v36 to visualize spatio-temporal spread. LASV was identified as expected in its primary host reservoir, the Natal multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis), and also in two Guinean multimammate mice (Mastomys erythroleucus) in northern Sierra Leone and two rusty-bellied brush-furred mice (Lophuromys sikapusi) in southern Sierra Leone. This finding is consistent with the latter two species being secondary host reservoirs. The strains in these three species were very closely related in LASV lineage IV. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the most recent common ancestor of lineage IV existed 316-374 years ago and revealed distinct, well-supported clades from Sierra Leone (Bo, Kabala and Kenema), Guinea (Faranah, Kissidougou-Guekedou and Macenta) and Liberia (Phebe-Ganta). The phylogeographic scenario suggests southern Guinea as the point of origin of LASV in the MRU area, with subsequent spread to towards Mali, Liberia and Sierra Leone at a mean speed of 1.6 to 1.1 km/year.

Ecological correlates and predictors of Lassa fever incidence in Ondo State, Nigeria 2017-2021: an emerging urban trend.

Lassa fever (LF) is prevalent in many West African countries, including Nigeria. Efforts to combat LF have primarily focused on rural areas where interactions between rodents and humans are common. However, recent studies indicate a shift in its occurrence from rural to urban areas. We analysed secondary data of reported LF outbreaks from 2017 to 2021 in Ondo State, Nigeria to identify the distribution pattern, ecological variations, and other determinants of disease spread from the ward level using nearest neighbour statistics and regression analysis. Data utilised include LF incidence, ecological variables involving population, nighttime light intensity, vegetation, temperature, market presence, road length, and building area coverage. ArcGIS Pro 3.0 software was employed for spatial analysis. Results revealed spatio-temporal clustering of LF incidents between 2017 and 2021, with an increasing trend followed by a decline in 2021. All wards in Owo Local Government Area were identified as LF hotspots. The ecological variables exhibited significant correlations with the number of LF cases in the wards, except for maximum temperature. Notably, these variables varied significantly between wards with confirmed LF and those without. Therefore, it is important to prioritise strategies for mitigating LF outbreaks in urban areas of Nigeria and other LF-endemic countries.

Current sampling and sequencing biases of Lassa mammarenavirus limit inference from phylogeography and molecular epidemiology in Lassa fever endemic regions.

Lassa fever (LF) is a potentially lethal viral haemorrhagic infection of humans caused by Lassa mammarenavirus (LASV). It is an important endemic zoonotic disease in West Africa with growing evidence for increasing frequency and sizes of outbreaks. Phylogeographic and molecular epidemiology methods have projected expansion of the Lassa fever endemic zone in the context of future global change. The Natal multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) is the predominant LASV reservoir, with few studies investigating the role of other animal species. To explore host sequencing biases, all LASV nucleotide sequences and associated metadata available on GenBank (n = 2,298) were retrieved. Most data originated from Nigeria (54%), Guinea (20%) and Sierra Leone (14%). Data from non-human hosts (n = 703) were limited and only 69 sequences encompassed complete genes. We found a strong positive correlation between the number of confirmed human cases and sequences at the country level (r = 0.93 (95% Confidence Interval = 0.71-0.98), p < 0.001) but no correlation exists between confirmed cases and the number of available rodent sequences (r = -0.019 (95% C.I. -0.71-0.69), p = 0.96). Spatial modelling of sequencing effort highlighted current biases in locations of available sequences, with increased sequencing effort observed in Southern Guinea and Southern Nigeria. Phylogenetic analyses showed geographic clustering of LASV lineages, suggestive of isolated events of human-to-rodent transmission and the emergence of currently circulating strains of LASV from the year 1498 in Nigeria. Overall, the current study highlights significant geographic limitations in LASV surveillance, particularly, in non-human hosts. Further investigation of the non-human reservoir of LASV, alongside expanded surveillance, are required for precise characterisation of the emergence and dispersal of LASV. Accurate surveillance of LASV circulation in non-human hosts is vital to guide early detection and initiation of public health interventions for future Lassa fever outbreaks.

Adult malaria mortality during 2019 at Bo Government Hospital, Sierra Leone.

It is uncertain whether malaria is an important cause of death among adults in endemic areas. We performed a chart review of adults admitted to Bo Government Hospital during 2019. Of 893 admissions, 149 (59% female, mean age 58.5 years) had a laboratory diagnosis of malaria and 22 (14.8%) died. Mortality was significantly higher among patients with severe malaria compared with those who had non-severe malaria (6/20 [30%] versus 16/129 [12.4%], p=0.031).  Our results suggest that malaria is a common cause of death in hospitalized Sierra Leonian adults.

Could vaccinating adults against malaria materially reduce adult mortality in high-transmission areas?

After a period of unprecedented progress against malaria in the 2000s, halving the global disease burden by 2015, gains overall in sub-Saharan Africa have slowed and even reversed in some places, beginning well before the COVID-19 pandemic. The highly effective drugs, treated nets, and diagnostics that fueled the initial progress all face some threats to their effectiveness, and global funding to maintain and increase their use over the long term is not guaranteed. Malaria vaccines are among the most promising new interventions that could accelerate the elimination of malaria. Vaccines are still in early stages of rollout in children, the age group (along with pregnant women) that has been the focus of malaria strategies for a century. At the same time, over the past decade, a case has been made, based largely on evidence from verbal autopsies in at least a few high-transmission areas, that the malaria death rate among adults has been greatly underestimated. Could vaccinating adults help to bring down the adult malaria mortality rate, contribute to reduced transmission, or both? A randomized trial of a malaria vaccine is proposed in Sierra Leone, a highly endemic setting, to shed light on this proposition.

Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices Assessment on Bat-Borne Zoonotic Diseases Among the People of Moyamba District, Sierra Leone.

Background: Bats are considered wildlife species of public health concern, as they are known to host various pathogenic agents, and their interactions with humans are potential routes of pathogen spillover. A high level of knowledge on Bat-borne Zoonotic Diseases (BZD), their causative agents, signs, symptoms, mode and pattern of transmission, health attitudes, and practices towards the disorders are vital parameters in handling them. This study aimed to look into BZD knowledge, public attitudes, and behaviour. Methods:  We surveyed the 14 chiefdoms of Moyamba district. A total of 421 participants were randomly sampled using closed-ended questionnaire. Simple linear regression analysis was used to determine the effects of gender, age, education, and livelihood opportunities on BZD knowledge (at 95% confidence interval and alpha value = 0.05). The findings were analysed and correlated with a scientific and public health perspective to assess the breadth of knowledge and awareness of BZD among the people of Moyamba district. Results: The findings from the study show a low level of knowledge on BZD among the people of the Moyamba district, with only 119 (28.3%) individuals that had some knowledge about BZD. Of those that knew about BZD, 94 (79.0%) had very little knowledge, 24 (20.2%) had a fair amount, and 1 (0.8%) had a great deal of knowledge about BZD. The primary mode of knowledge dissemination was through social media platforms. Conclusion: The level of knowledge about BZD is also very low. As a result of these findings, policymakers, health professionals, and environmental educators will be compelled to develop strategies to reduce the risk of BZD transmission in Sierra Leone's population.

The Threat of Vector-Borne Diseases in Sierra Leone.

Sierra Leone is vulnerable to a wide range of vector-borne diseases transmitted by mosquitoes, tsetse flies, black flies, and other vectors. Malaria, lymphatic filariasis, and onchocerciasis have posed the greatest threat and have received the most attention in terms of vector control and capacity for diagnosis. However, malaria infection rates remain high, and there is evidence of circulation of other vector-borne diseases, such as chikungunya and dengue, which may go undiagnosed and unreported. The limited understanding of the prevalence and transmission of these diseases restricts the capacity for predicting outbreaks, and impedes the planning of appropriate responses. We review the available literature and gather expert opinions from those working in the country to report on the status of vector-borne disease transmission and control in Sierra Leone, and present an assessment of the threats of these diseases. Our discussions highlight an absence of entomological testing for disease agents and the need for more investment in surveillance and capacity strengthening.

The 2022 dengue outbreak in Bangladesh: hypotheses for the late resurgence of cases and fatalities.

Bangladesh reported the highest number of annual deaths (n = 281) related to dengue virus infection in 2022 since the virus reappeared in the country in 2000. Earlier studies showed that >92% of the annual cases occurred between the months of August and September. The 2022 outbreak is characterized by late onset of dengue cases with unusually higher deaths in colder months, that is, October-December. Here we present possible hypotheses and explanations for this late resurgence of dengue cases. First, in 2022, the rainfall started late in the season. Compared to the monthly average rainfall for September and October between 2003 and 2021, there was 137 mm of additional monthly rainfall recorded in September and October 2022. Furthermore, the year 2022 was relatively warmer with a 0.71°C increased temperature than the mean annual temperature of the past 20 yr. Second, a new dengue virus serotype, DENV-4, had recently reintroduced/reappeared in 2022 and become the dominant serotype in the country for a large naïve population. Third, the post-pandemic return of normalcy after 2 yr of nonpharmaceutical social measures facilitates extra mosquito breeding habitats, especially in construction sites. Community engagement and regular monitoring and destruction of Aedes mosquitoes' habitats should be prioritized to control dengue virus outbreaks in Bangladesh.

The "ready-to-hand" test: Diagnostic availability and usability in primary health care settings in Sierra Leone.

This article assesses the availability of essential diagnostic tests in primary health care facilities in two districts in Sierra Leone. In addition to evaluating whether a test is physically present at a facility, it extends the concept of availability to include whether equipment is functional and whether infrastructure, systems, personnel and resources are in place to allow a particular test to be "ready to hand", that is, available for immediate use when needed. Between February 2019 and September 2019, a cross-sectional mixed-methods survey was conducted in all 40 Community Health Centres (CHCs) in Western Area, one of five principal divisions in Sierra Leone. The number of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) available ranged from 1-12, with 75% of facilities having 9 or less RDTs available out of a possible 17. While RDTs were overall more widely present than manual assays, there was wide variation between tests. The presence of RDTs at individual facilities was associated with having a permanent laboratory technician on staff. Despite CHCs being formally designated as providing laboratory services, no CHC fulfilled standard World Health Organisation (WHO) criteria for a laboratory. Only 9/40 (22.5%) CHCs had a designated laboratory space and a permanently employed laboratory technician. There was low availability of essential equipment and infrastructure. Supply chains were fragmented and unreliable, including a high dependency (>50%) on informal private sources for the majority of the available RDTs, consumables, and reagents. We conclude that the readiness of diagnostic services, including RDTs, depends on the presence and functionality of essential infrastructure, human resources, equipment and systems and that RDTs are not on their own a solution to infrastructural failings. Efforts to strengthen laboratory systems at the primary care level should take a holistic approach and focus on whether tests are "ready-to-hand" in addition to whether they are physically present.

The disproportionate case-fatality ratio of COVID-19 between countries with the highest vaccination rates and the rest of the world.

Objectives: The global reported cumulative case-fatality ratios (rCFRs) and excess mortality rates of the 20 countries with the highest coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination rates, the rest of the world and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) were compared before and after the commencement of vaccination programmes. Methods: A time series model was used to understand the trend of rCFR over time, and a generalized linear mixed model was used to understand the effect of vaccination on rCFR. Results: By 31 December 2022, an average of 260.3 doses of COVID-19 vaccine per 100 population had been administered in the top 20 vaccinated countries, compared with 152.1 doses in the rest of the world and 51.2 doses in SSA. The mean rCFR of COVID-19 had decreased by 69.0% in the top 20 vaccinated countries, 26.5% in the rest of the world and 7.6% in SSA. Excess mortality had decreased by 48.7% in the top 20 vaccinated countries, compared with 62.5% in the rest of the world and 60.7% in SSA. In a generalized linear mixed model, the reported number of vaccine doses administered (/100 population) (odds ratio 0.64) was associated with a steeper reduction in COVID-19 rCFR. Conclusions: Vaccine equity and faster roll-out across the world is critically important in reducing COVID-19 transmission and CFR.

How prepared is the world? Identifying weaknesses in existing assessment frameworks for global health security through a One Health approach.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed faults in the way we assess preparedness and response capacities for public health emergencies. Existing frameworks are limited in scope, and do not sufficiently consider complex social, economic, political, regulatory, and ecological factors. One Health, through its focus on the links among humans, animals, and ecosystems, is a valuable approach through which existing assessment frameworks can be analysed and new ways forward proposed. Although in the past few years advances have been made in assessment tools such as the International Health Regulations Joint External Evaluation, a rapid and radical increase in ambition is required. To sufficiently account for the range of complex systems in which health emergencies occur, assessments should consider how problems are defined across stakeholders and the wider sociopolitical environments in which structures and institutions operate. Current frameworks do little to consider anthropogenic factors in disease emergence or address the full array of health security hazards across the social-ecological system. A complex and interdependent set of challenges threaten human, animal, and ecosystem health, and we cannot afford to overlook important contextual factors, or the determinants of these shared threats. Health security assessment frameworks should therefore ensure that the process undertaken to prioritise and build capacity adheres to core One Health principles and that interventions and outcomes are assessed in terms of added value, trade-offs, and cobenefits across human, animal, and environmental health systems.

An ethics of anthropology-informed community engagement with COVID-19 clinical trials in Africa.

The COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced the critical role of ethics and community engagement in designing and conducting clinical research during infectious disease outbreaks where no vaccine or treatment already exists. In reviewing current practices across Africa, we distinguish between three distinct roles for community engagement in clinical research that are often conflated: 1) the importance of community engagement for identifying and honouring cultural sensitivities; 2) the importance of recognising the socio-political context in which the research is proposed; and 3) the importance of understanding what is in the interest of communities recruited to research according to their own views and values. By making these distinctions, we show that current practice of clinical research could draw on anthropology in ways which are sometimes unnecessary to solicit local cultural values, overlook the importance of socio-political contexts and wider societal structures within which it works, potentially serving to reinforce unjust political or social regimes, and threaten to cast doubt on the trustworthiness of the research. We argue that more discerning anthropological engagement as well as wider collaboration with other social scientists and those working in the humanities is urgently needed to improve the ethics of current biomedical and pharmaceutical research practice in Africa.

Prevalence of malaria resistance-associated mutations in Plasmodium falciparum circulating in 2017-2018, Bo, Sierra Leone.

Introduction: In spite of promising medical, sociological, and engineering strategies and interventions to reduce the burden of disease, malaria remains a source of significant morbidity and mortality, especially among children in sub-Saharan Africa. In particular, progress in the development and administration of chemotherapeutic agents is threatened by evolved resistance to most of the antimalarials currently in use, including artemisinins. Methods: This study analyzed the prevalence of mutations associated with antimalarial resistance in Plasmodium falciparum from 95 clinical samples collected from individuals with clinically confirmed malaria at a hospital in Bo, Sierra Leone between May 2017 and December 2018. The combination of polymerase chain reaction amplification and subsequent high throughput DNA sequencing was used to determine the presence of resistance-associated mutations in five P. falciparum genes - pfcrt, pfmdr1, pfdhfr, pfdhps and pfkelch13. The geographic origin of parasites was assigned using mitochondrial sequences. Results: Relevant mutations were detected in the pfcrt (22%), pfmdr1 (>58%), pfdhfr (100%) and pfdhps (>80%) genes while no resistance-associated mutations were found in the pfkelch13 gene. The mitochondrial barcodes were consistent with a West African parasite origin with one exception indicating an isolate imported from East Africa. Discussion: Detection of the pfmdr1 NFSND haplotype in 50% of the samples indicated the increasing prevalence of strains with elevated tolerance to artemeter + lumefantrine (AL) threatening the combination currently used to treat uncomplicated malaria in Sierra Leone. The frequency of mutations linked to resistance to antifolates suggests widespread resistance to the drug combination used for intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy.

Human preparedness: Relational infrastructures and medical countermeasures in Sierra Leone.

This paper examines health worker experiences in two areas of post-epidemic preparedness in Sierra Leone - vaccine trials and laboratory strengthening - to reflect on the place of people in current models of epidemic response. Drawing on ethnographic research and interviews with health workers in the aftermath of Ebola, it explores the hopes and expectations that interventions foster for frontline workers in under-resourced health systems, and describes the unseen work involved in sustaining robust response infrastructures. Our analysis focuses on what it means for the people who sustain health systems in an emergency to be 'prepared' for an epidemic. Human preparedness entails more than the presence of a labour force; it involves building and maintaining 'relational infrastructures', often fragile social and moral relationships between health workers, publics, governments, and international organisations. The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the value of rethinking human resources from an anthropological perspective, and investing in the safety and support of people at the forefront of response. In describing the labour, personal losses, and social risks undertaken by frontline workers for protocols and practicality to meet in an emergency context, we describe the social process of preparedness; that is, the contextual engineering and investment that make response systems work.

Cardiovascular disease risk profile and management among people 40 years of age and above in Bo, Sierra Leone: A cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: Access to care for cardiovascular disease risk factors (CVDRFs) in low- and middle-income countries is limited. We aimed to describe the need and access to care for people with CVDRF and the preparedness of the health system to treat these in Bo, Sierra Leone. METHODS: Data from a 2018 household survey conducted in Bo, Sierra Leone, was analysed. Demographic, anthropometric and clinical data on CVDRF (hypertension, diabetes mellitus or dyslipidaemia) from randomly sampled individuals 40 years of age and above were collected. Future risk of CVD was calculated using the World Health Organisation-International Society of Hypertension (WHO-ISH) calculator with high risk defined as >20% risk over 10 years. Requirement for treatment was based on WHO package of essential non-communicable (PEN) disease guidelines (which use a risk-based approach) or requiring treatment for individual CVDRF; whether participants were on treatment was used to determine whether care needs were met. Multivariable regression was used to test associations between individual characteristics and outcomes. Data from the most recent WHO Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA) were used to create a score reflecting health system preparedness to treat CVDRF, and compared to that for HIV. RESULTS: 2071 individual participants were included. Most participants (n = 1715 [94.0%]) had low CVD risk; 423 (20.6%) and 431 (52.3%) required treatment based upon WHO PEN guidelines or individual CVDRF, respectively. Sixty-eight (15.8%) had met-need for treatment determined by WHO guidelines, whilst 84 (19.3%) for individual CVDRF. Living in urban areas, having education, being older, single/widowed/divorced, or wealthy were independently associated with met need. Overall facility readiness scores for CVD/CVDRF care for all facilities in Bo district was 16.8%, compared to 41% for HIV. CONCLUSION: The number of people who require treatment for CVDRF in Sierra Leone is substantially lower based on WHO guidelines compared to CVDRF. CVDRF care needs are not met equitably, and facility readiness to provide care is low.

Increased outbreaks of monkeypox highlight gaps in actual disease burden in Sub-Saharan Africa and in animal reservoirs.

We explain research gaps on Monkeypox (MPX) virus epidemiology in endemic countries and present hypotheses for the recent increase of MPX cases in West Africa as a possible explanation for the current epidemic in Europe, America, and Australia. The detection of >400 MPX cases in less than a month in May 2022, across many countries underscores the epidemic potential of MPX in humans and demonstrates several important research gaps. First, the true burden of MPX in West and Central Africa is poorly understood, although it is critical for prevention and control of future outbreaks. Second, the diversity and extent of the animal reservoir remain unknown. We hypothesize that the synanthropic rodent population has increased in recent years in Africa leading to more human-rodent interactions and thus increased transmission of MPXV. We further hypothesise that nearly 45 years after the end of routine smallpox vaccination, the larger and more interconnected immune-naïve population has crossed a threshold resulting in more sustainable human-to-human transmission of MPXV. The current epidemic in the Western World is possibly a consequence of increased local transmission of MPXV in Africa. A new estimation of the basic and effective reproduction rate (R0 and Re) in different populations is required. National, regional, and international collaborations are needed to address research gaps related to MPX outbreaks.